Farmers' Preferences for Future Agricultural Land Use Under the Consideration of Climate Change

Prediction of global wheat cultivation distribution under climate change and socioeconomic development

Socioeconomic and climate change are both essential factors affecting the global cultivation distributions of crops. However, the role of socioeconomic factors in the prediction of future crop cultivation distribution under climate change has been rarely explored. Motivated by revealing the future global wheat cultivation distribution that coupling socioeconomic factors and climate change, the MaxEnt-SPAM approach was proposed by the present study. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal patterns of global wheat cultivation in the near-term (2011-2040), the mid-term (2041-2070), and long-term (2071-2100) under the scenarios of RCP2.6-SSP1, RCP4.5-SSP2, and RCP8.5-SSP3 were predicted. It indicated that the predictive accuracy of the proposed approach could be over 80 %, with a significant positive correlation (p < 0.01) between the predicted global wheat cultivation and multiple known datasets. Socioeconomic development significantly altered the potential distribution of global wheat cultivation driven by climate change. Socioeconomic development seems to benefit wheat cultivation in the Southern Hemisphere especially central and east Africa, while the Northern Hemisphere may have witnessed a decline in future cultivation areas. It was noteworthy that heightened profitability stimulated interest in expanding wheat cultivation efforts within pivotal countries/regions positioned in the Southern Hemisphere. In the long-term period, the potential wheat cultivation area was reduced by 7 % under the RCP2.6-SSP1 scenario, while it expanded by 8 % and 2 % under the RCP4.5-SSP2 and RCP8.5-SSP3 scenarios, respectively. A global decline in wheat production of 16 %, 3 %, and 3 % was observed in the long-term under the RCP2.6-SSP1, RCP4.5-SSP2, and RCP8.5-SSP3 scenarios respectively. The present study emphasized the importance of integrating socioeconomic factors into crop distribution predictions under climate change. Our findings indicated significant temporal adjustments in the future global distribution of wheat cultivation and offered a comprehensive perspective on how socioeconomic factors interacted with climate change to influence global wheat cultivation.

Past and future impacts of land-use changes on ecosystem services in Austria

Environmental and socio-economic developments induce land-use changes with potentially negative impacts on human well-being. To counteract undesired developments, a profound understanding of the complex relationships between drivers, land use, and ecosystem services is needed. Yet, national studies examining extended time periods are still rare. Based on the Special Report on land use, land management and climate change by the Austrian Panel on Climate Change (APCC), we use the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework to (1) identify the main drivers of land-use change, (2) describe past and future land-use changes in Austria between 1950 and 2100, (3) report related impacts on ecosystem services, and (4) discuss management responses. Our findings indicate that socio-economic drivers (e.g., economic growth, political systems, and technological developments) have influenced past land-use changes the most. The intensification of agricultural land use and urban sprawl have primarily led to declining ecosystem services in the lowlands. In mountain regions, the abandonment of mountain grassland has prompted a shift from provisioning to regulating services. However, simulations indicate that accelerating climate change will surpass socio-economic drivers in significance towards the end of this century, particularly in intensively used agricultural areas. Although climate change-induced impacts on ecosystem services remain uncertain, it can be expected that the range of land-use management options will be restricted in the future. Consequently, policymaking should prioritize the development of integrated land-use planning to safeguard ecosystem services, accounting for future environmental and socio-economic uncertainties.

Cultural Landscapes under the Threat of Climate Change: A Systematic Study of Barriers to Resilience

Cultural landscapes reflect a cultural group’s continuous and evolved interactions with natural resources and the environment. By now, climate change has become the most significant threat to cultural landscapes, e.g., food security, water scarcity, and displacement. The cultural and natural heritage of cultural landscapes can enhance their value as integrated systems and offer solutions to the challenges brought by climate change. Although exploring tangible impacts of climate change has received sufficient attention in cultural landscapes, a systematic understanding of the main barriers has been overlooked in building climate resilience in cultural landscapes. This paper aimed to explore the main barriers to building climate resilience in cultural landscapes. The research methodology was based on the content analysis of 359 documents published between 1995 and 2020. The results revealed that the integrated approach in documentation and assessments was the most quoted technical barrier. In addition, the lack of a regulatory framework for supporting effective collaboration and cooperation has been discussed as the most significant institutional obstacle to climate resilience in cultural landscapes.

Sustainability of Coastal Agriculture under Climate Change

Climatic and non-climatic stressors, such as temperature increases, rainfall fluctuations, population growth and migration, pollution, land-use changes and inadequate gender-specific strategies, are major challenges to coastal agricultural sustainability. In this paper, we discuss all pertinent issues related to the sustainability of coastal agriculture under climate change. It is evident that some climate-change-related impacts (e.g., temperature and rainfall) on agriculture are similarly applicable to both coastal and non-coastal settings, but there are other factors (e.g., inundation, seawater intrusion, soil salinity and tropical cyclones) that particularly impact coastal agricultural sustainability. Coastal agriculture is characterised by low-lying and saline-prone soils where spatial competition with urban growth is an ever-increasing problem. We highlight how coastal agricultural viability could be sustained through blending farmer perceptions, adaptation options, gender-specific participation and integrated coastal resource management into policy ratification. This paper provides important aspects of the coastal agricultural sustainability, and it can be an inspiration for further research and coastal agrarian planning.

Agricultural Land Abandonment and Farmers’ Perceptions of Land Use Change in the Indus Plains of Pakistan: A Case Study of Sindh Province

Agriculture is the mainstay of Pakistan’s economy. However, it has been noticed that farmers are increasingly giving up agriculture in favor of non-agricultural activities. This study was conducted in the Khairpur district of Sindh province, which is part of the Indus Plains in Pakistan. The main purpose of the study was to investigate the current and future land use change (LUC) trends and to study farmers’ perceptions of the causes and consequences of LUC and agricultural land abandonment (ALA) in the study area. The study used field survey data and secondary data obtained from the government sources. The results show that agricultural land in the region has decreased by about 9% in the past two decades. Survey data analysis confirms this because more than 80% of farmers believe that agricultural land in the area has declined over time. In addition, farmers believe that socioeconomic and environmental changes are the main reasons for LUC and ALA. We used a logistic regression model to determine the factors that influence farmers’ decisions to sell agricultural land for other uses. The results show that the age, income, land ownership, farm inheritance by successors, social networks and lack of basic facilities in the study area are the main determinants of farmers’ decisions to sell agricultural lands. In particular, farmers’ integration into the social network and their belief that the farm will be inherited by heirs reduces the possibility of selling land. As for the consequences of LUC and ALA, the results indicate that farmland prices, weeds infestation, urban diffusion, and pressure on existing infrastructure have increased in the study area. In addition, the results show that the prospects of farming in the area remain grim as most farmers indicated that they were willing to abandon agricultural lands in favor of other revenue generation activities. The study suggests that policymakers should pay close attention to controlling rapid LUC and ALA to keep lands green.

Exploring Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions and Adaptation Intentions: Empirical Evidence from Austria

The lack of timely adaptation in agriculture may hamper prosperous farm developments by neglecting risks and opportunities emerging from climate change. Understanding farmers' perceptual and socio-cognitive processes is key in order to encourage on-farm adaptation. We aim at investigating how farmers' individual cognition on climate change and adaptation as well as socio-environmental context factors affect agricultural adaptation intention and avoidance. We build on the Model of Private Proactive Adaptation to Climate Change (MPPACC) and apply a qualitative interview approach in two Austrian farming regions. Twenty semi-structured interviews have been conducted with 29 farmers. Based on the results of the qualitative content analysis, we have identified four groups of farmers, which differ in the formation process of adaptation intention and avoidance: (i) climate change adaptors, (ii) integrative adaptors, (iii) cost-benefit calculators, and (iv) climate change fatalists. Farmers who are part of groups (i)-(iii) form adaptation intentions, whereas climate change fatalists do not intend to adapt. According to our analysis, adaptation intentions are only formed if farmers are aware of effective adaptation measures, accept personal responsibility for their farms, and evaluate adaptation costs positively (i.e. adaptation appraisal). Farmers' climate change appraisal as well as farm and regional characteristics are also perceived relevant for farmers' adaptation decisions but seem to be less important than adaptation appraisal. Therefore, we conclude that engagement strategies and outreach efforts need not only address risks and opportunities, but should also strengthen farmers' self-responsibility and offer adaptation measures tailored to the regional characteristics and the farmers' needs.

Farmers' perceptions of agricultural land use changes in Nepal and their major drivers

Historical trends show that the total area of agricultural land in Nepal has changed markedly over time, but few studies have addressed the causative drivers underlying this change. Evaluating the perceptions of farmers is an effective tool for addressing this issue because it reflects the full range of drivers associated with changes in land use. This study utilizes historical agricultural area, population, and climate data for 1910-2010, combined with a series of applied household surveys and focus group discussions to assess farmers' perceptions of these changes and identify the major drivers. The paired t-test was employed to measure differences between various groups of drivers. The total area of agricultural land in Nepal has expanded rapidly since 1910, more intensively in the southern (Tarai) and central (Hill) ecological regions of the country, and has decreased slightly near large cities in recent decades. Farmers' perceptions show that socioeconomic variables were considered to be the crucial drivers of changes in agricultural land use. The three other major drivers were grouped as: neighborhood, climate-topography, and policy drivers. In particular, farmers pointed to the high level of population growth (93.96%) as the main factor underlying the changes, and the majority of drivers are associated with this variable. Access to roads (77.36%), urbanization (33.77%), government policies (23.58%), and remittance impact (16.79%) are other notable triggering variables. The paired t-test results equating variables from different groups of drivers and ecological regions indicate varied significance (p-values range from 0.004 to 0.983). Our analysis confirms that the synergy between social and natural observations can be integrated to obtain research findings that identify scientific and social issues. The interplay between the drivers should be emphasized in developing plans for sustainable agricultural land use management.

Projected Impacts of Climate, Urbanization, Water Management, and Wetland Restoration on Waterbird Habitat in California's Central Valley

The Central Valley of California is one of the most important regions for wintering waterbirds in North America despite extensive anthropogenic landscape modification and decline of historical wetlands there. Like many other mediterranean-climate ecosystems across the globe, the Central Valley has been subject to a burgeoning human population and expansion and intensification of agricultural and urban development that have impacted wildlife habitats. Future effects of urban development, changes in water supply management, and precipitation and air temperature related to global climate change on area of waterbird habitat in the Central Valley are uncertain, yet potentially substantial. Therefore, we modeled area of waterbird habitats for 17 climate, urbanization, water supply management, and wetland restoration scenarios for years 2006–2099 using a water resources and scenario modeling framework. Planned wetland restoration largely compensated for adverse effects of climate, urbanization, and water supply management changes on habitat areas through 2065, but fell short thereafter for all except one scenario. Projected habitat reductions due to climate models were more frequent and greater than under the recent historical climate and their magnitude increased through time. After 2065, area of waterbird habitat in all scenarios that included severe warmer, drier climate was projected to be >15% less than in the “existing” landscape most years. The greatest reduction in waterbird habitat occurred in scenarios that combined warmer, drier climate and plausible water supply management options affecting priority and delivery of water available for waterbird habitats. This scenario modeling addresses the complexity and uncertainties in the Central Valley landscape, use and management of related water supplies, and climate to inform waterbird habitat conservation and other resource management planning. Results indicate that increased wetland restoration and additional conservation and climate change adaptation strategies may be warranted to maintain habitat adequate to support waterbirds in the Central Valley.