Impacts of China's Grain for Green Program on Migration and Household Income

Trade-offs between grain supply and soil conservation in the Grain for Green Program under changing climate: A case study in the Three Gorges Reservoir region

Understanding the trade-offs between ecological benefits and cost of grain supply caused by ecosystem restoration is essential for decision-making. Nevertheless, due to climate change, the benefits of ecosystem restoration and cost of grain supply change across various spatial locations, thereby complicating the trade-offs. Taking one of China's largest scale ecosystem restorations, the Grain for Green Program (GGP), as an example, this study used the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) region as the case study area and combined the crop environment resource synthesis (CERES)-Crop model, future land-use simulation (FLUS), and the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) to simulate future grain supply and soil erosion during 2021-2050 under three climate change and socioeconomic development scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) in the TGR region. The results showed that: (1) Until 2050, the implementation of GGP would bring a large soil conservation benefit by reducing soil erosion of 2.47-5.68 million tons, at the cost of 130,277-660,279 tons decrease in grain production in the TGR region. (2) Under SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario with the highest rainfall in the future, the GGP would maintain the greatest soil conservation benefits, resulting in a total amount of soil erosion decrease by 2.55 to 5.68 million tons. (3) Trade-offs between benefit of reducing soil erosion and cost of grain supply vary considerably across income. Specifically, GGP benefits are greater under low-income and higher-emission scenarios, with significant gains in soil erosion control and less impact on grain supply. In contrast, in high-income and low-emission scenarios, the GGP results in less soil erosion control and greater impact on grain supply.

Understanding the mediating role of labor out-migration in household income generation and distribution under a reforestation policy in rural China

Income inequality is a critical issue of socio-economic development, particularly in rural areas where forest-dependent people are often vulnerable to the intervention of forest policies. This paper aims to elucidate income distribution and inequality of rural households influenced by China's largest reforestation policy implemented in early 2000s. Drawing on socioeconomic and demographic data from household surveys in two rural sites, we applied the Gini coefficient to measure income inequality and used a regression-based approach to examine the underlying factors that are associated with income generation among households. We also performed a mediation analysis to test the role of labor out-migration in shaping household income distribution under the reforestation policy. Results show that remittances sent by rural out-migrants substantially contribute to household income but tend to worsen inequality, particularly for households having retired cropland for reforestation. The inequality in total income depends on capital accumulation for land endowment and labor availability that render diversified livelihoods possible. Such linkage reveals regional disparity, which, along with policy-implementing institutions (e.g., rules for tree species choice for reforestation), can influence income generation from a given source (e.g., agriculture). Rural out-migration of female labor significantly mediates the economic benefits of the policy delivered to the households with an estimated mediating share of 11.7%. These findings add value to the knowledge of poverty-environment interrelationships in a sense that supporting rural livelihoods of the more vulnerable and underrepresented groups is essential for securing and sustaining the stewardship of forests. Policymaking for such forest restoration programs needs to integrate strategies for targeted or precise poverty alleviation to strengthen the conservation effectiveness.

The role of harmonized Landsat Sentinel-2 (HLS) products to reveal multiple trajectories and determinants of cropland abandonment in subtropical mountainous areas

Cropland abandonment is a widespread land-change process globally, which can stem from the accelerated outmigration of the population from rural to urban areas, socio-economic and political changes, catastrophes, and other trigger events. Clouds limit the utility of optical satellite data to monitor cropland abandonment in highly fragmented mountain agricultural landscapes of tropical and subtropical regions, including the south of China. Taking Nanjing County of China as an example, we developed a novel approach by utilizing multisource satellite (Landsat and Sentinel-2) imagery to map multiple trajectories of cropland abandonment (transitioning from cropland to grassland, shrubs and forest) in subtropical mountainous landscapes. Then, we employed a redundancy analysis (RDA) to identify the spatial association of cropland abandonment considering agricultural productivity, physiography, locational characteristics and economic factors. Results indicate the great suitability of harmonized Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 images to distinguish multiple trajectories of cropland abandonment in subtropical mountainous areas. Our framework of mapping cropland abandonment resulted in good producer's (78.2%) and user's (81.3%) accuracies. The statistical analysis showed 31.85% of croplands cultivated in 2000 were abandoned by 2018, and more than a quarter of townships experienced cropland abandonment with high abandoned rates (>38%). Cropland abandonment mainly occurred in relatively unfavorable areas for agricultural production, for instance with a slope above 6°. Slope and the proximity to the nearest settlement explained 65.4% and 8.1% of the variation of cropland abandonment at the township level, respectively. The developed approaches on both mapping cropland abandonment and modeling determinants can be highly relevant to monitor multiple trajectories of cropland abandonment and ascribe their determinants not only in mountainous China but also elsewhere and thus promote the formulation of land-use policies that aim to steer cropland abandonment.

Quantifying the impact of the Grain-for-Green Program on ecosystem service scarcity value in Qinghai, China

Studying the impact of large-scale ecological projects, such as the Grain-for-Green Program (GGP), on ecosystem services (ES) is currently a frontier and hot topic of ecological research. The GGP can directly change land use and land cover, thus affecting ES. By comparing the changes of ecosystem service value (ESV) and ecosystem service scarcity value (ESSV) in Qinghai before and after the implementation of the GGP, this paper clarified the impact of the GGP on Qinghai from the angles of ecology and economics. This paper quantified and evaluated the land use dynamics, ESV, and ESSV in Qinghai from 1995 to 2020. The results showed that in the past 25 years, the total annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of Qinghai showed a trend of sustained growth. From 1995 to 2020, the ESV increased by 6.80%. After considering supply and demand, the ESSV showed a continuous upward trend, increasing by 719.38%. After implementation of the GGP, the increase of NDVI inhibited the increase of the ESSV. These findings from evaluation of the effect of the GGP implementation provide a theoretical basis for future policy implementation and, in particular, a reference for the evaluation of the ESV and the ESSV in Qinghai.

Livelihood resilience in pastoral communities: Methodological and field insights from Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Livelihood resilience is crucial for both people and the environment, especially in remote and harsh ecosystems, such as the Qinghai Tibetan Plateau (QTP). This research aimed to fill the gap of assessing herders' livelihood resilience using more inclusive method. Using survey data from 758 pastoralists, complemented with focus group discussions and transect walks in the Three River Headwater Region (TRHR) on the QTP, we first developed a livelihood resilience evaluation index comprising dimensions of buffer capacity, self-organization and learning capacity. The method of entropy-TOPSIS was then applied to assess the livelihood resilience of local herders, and the spatial patterns were analyzed by spatial autocorrelation method. The results showed the overall level of pastoral livelihood resilience resulted weak, with an east to west spatial gradient toward lower livelihood resilience. Self-organization was the most important dimensions of livelihood resilience, with social cohesion being a dominant factor. Buffer capacity resulted the less important, but the natural capital was significantly higher than the other four livelihood capitals. Furthermore, the northeastern region was a hotspot, while the northwestern region was a cold spot of livelihood resilience. While pastoral populations in the TRHR had high self-organization abilities and potentially high learning capacities, the overall low buffer capacity and livelihood capital limited the improvement of their livelihood resilience. The key findings provide support for enabling policies and integrated strategies to enhance social-ecological resilience. Study may help as paradigm shift reference for the livelihood resilience of pastoral communities in high-altitude areas globally.

Ecological aspiration and the income of farmers aroused by Grain for Green Project

For farmers, the more fragile the state of the ecology becomes, the more their awareness of the need for environmental protection grows. China’s Grain for Green Project (G.G.P.) policy of returning farmland to forests and grassland, as an external shock to the environment, has sparked people’s ecological aspirations. Many people have noticed the phenomenon of ecosystem degradation and overlapping poverty. Analyzing the environmental and income changes brought about by the G.G.P., and this study considers farmers’ self-selection problems due to their lack of subjective thinking regarding this initiative. Our study aims to fill this gap by using a forest–grass model to assess the level of farmers’ ecological aspirations in ecologically vulnerable areas of Xinjiang, China. This article is based on aspiration theory and a theoretical model assessing the economic impact of ecological aspiration on the G.G.P. in China. The results show that farmers’ ecological aspirations can increase their enthusiasm to participate in the G.G.P. Under counterfactual conditions, participation in the G.G.P. initially reduces farmers’ total income to a certain extent; however, in the long run, it can significantly increase the total income of farmers. When the intermediary effect is used to analyze the economic effect of ecological aspiration on returning farmland to forest, it is found that farmers’ ecological aspirations affect household income by influencing income expectations. Our findings have essential practical implications and provide an important reference for consolidating poverty alleviation efforts and effectively promoting rural revitalization. In addition, the results suggest a way to achieve the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, and it is necessary for building environmental-friendly regions.

Spatial relationships between ecosystem services and socioecological drivers across a large-scale region: A case study in the Yellow River Basin

Understanding the relationships between ecosystem services (ES) and their underlying socioecological drivers is essential for forming the efficient management decisions of ecosystems. We use a large watershed area as a case-study to analyze trade-offs/synergies and bundles of ESs and identify the associated socioecological variables (SEVs). This study assessed the supply of 7 ES indicators, namely, three provisioning services (crop production, livestock production, and industrial production), three regulating services (water conservation, soil conservation, and carbon sequestration), and one cultural service (recreation), across 65 municipalities in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) in China. We analyzed the paired trade-offs/synergies using Spearman's coefficient and identified the ES bundles (ESBs) by applying principal component analysis and K-means clustering. Subsequently, we detected the SEVs that affect the ES supply using the geo-detector model and characterized the associations between ESBs and socioecological clusters according to the spatial overlap. The results demonstrated that the synergies between ESs substantially exceeded the trade-offs, among which the strongest synergies were between the crop production and the livestock production, and both responded strongly to the cropland and the population density. Trade-offs were identified between provisioning services and soil conservation. Municipalities were grouped into three ESBs in the YRB. The ESB, which was dominated by provisioning ESs, was associated with areas where cropland, precipitation and socioeconomic conditions were all important, and the regulation of ESB was linked to regions with distinct ecological characteristics. We also identified an ESB that was dominated by carbon sequestration, as determined by extensive grassland and bare land. The land use/land cover strongly affected the characteristics of the ESBs. The findings can be used by land managers to identify areas in which ESs are dominant, to determine the associations of these compositions of the ESs with SEVs, and to support the formulation of optimal ES management in large-scale basins.

Effects of payments for ecosystem services programs in China on rural household labor allocation and land use: Identifying complex pathways

Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) is increasingly used in developing countries to secure the sustainable provision of vital ecosystem services. The largest PES programs in the world are embedded in China's new forest policies, which aim to expand forest cover for soil and water conservation and improve livelihoods of rural people. The objective of this study is to identify the complex pathways of impacts of two PES programs - the Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program (CCFP) and the Ecological Welfare Forest Program (EWFP) - on household livelihood decisions, and to quantify the direct and indirect impacts along the identified pathways. We fulfill this objective by developing an integrated conceptual framework and applying a Partial Least Squares-Structural Equation Model (PLS-SEM), based on household survey data from Anhui, China. Labor allocation (for on-farm work, local paid work, local business, and out-migration) and land use decisions (i.e., rent in, maintain, rent out, or abandon cropland) for participating households are key to understand PES program effects on livelihoods. Results show that the PES programs have only small direct effects but significant indirect effects via the mediating factor of capital assets. Moreover, group heterogeneity analysis shows that lower-income households do not benefit any more than the better-off households from the PES, while households with medium wealth increase dependence on agriculture. In addition, household demographics, individual attributes, and geographic settings differ in their impacts on labor allocation and land use decisions. We conclude that CCFP and EWFP programs would be more efficient in conserving the environment while improving the economic welfare of lower-income households if capital assets were taken into account in the design of compensation schemes.

Divergent socioeconomic-ecological outcomes of China's Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program in the subtropical mountainous area and the semi-arid Loess Plateau

China's Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program (CCFP) is one of the world's largest Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) programs. Its socioeconomic-ecological effects are of great interest to both scholars and policy-makers. However, little is known about how the socioeconomic-ecological outcomes of CCFP differ across geographic regions. This study integrates household survey data, satellite imagery, and statistical models to examine labor migration and forest dynamics under CCFP. The investigation is carried out at two mountainous sites with distinct biophysical and socioeconomic conditions, one in a subtropical mountainous region (Anhui) and the other in the semi-arid Loess Plateau (Shanxi). We found divergent CCFP outcomes on migration behavior, stimulating both local- and distant-migration in the Anhui site while discouraging distant-migration in the Shanxi site, after controlling for factors at the individual, household, community and regional levels. Forest recovery is positively associated with distant-migration in Anhui but with local-migration in Shanxi. Contextual factors interact with demographic-socioeconomic factors to influence household livelihoods in both areas, leading to various socio-ecological pathways from CCFP participation to enhanced forest sustainability. Regional differences should therefore be taken into account in the design of future large-scale PES programs.

Do environmental conservation programs contribute to sustainable livelihoods? Evidence from China's grain-for-green program in northern Shaanxi province

Several studies reported that conservation programs worldwide have profoundly reshaped participants' livelihoods and influenced other socio-economic processes. A fully understanding of how such conservation programs influence human lives is, therefore, crucial for their success. There, however, is little robust evidence of the effect of China's grain-for-green program (GGP), the largest conservation program in the world, on participants' livelihoods. That is, we do not know whether the program fulfills its goal of, at the very least, doing no harm to the lives of participants while simultaneously enhancing their environmental perception. To help fill this gap, we used a sustainable livelihood approach and structural equation modeling, based on household survey data from China's northern Shaanxi province, to compare the livelihood components of participants and non-participants in the GGP. We then characterized the interactions and pathways between their livelihood components and environmental perception. We found that the GGP indeed does no harm to participants' lives. Although participants suffer from a small reduction in natural capital due to a sharp decrease in their landholdings, they have much more off-farm income, subsidies, and financial and social assets than non-participants. Respondents commonly held positive attitudes toward the program's environmental benefits, but they had weak perceptions of the social and direct economic benefits of the GGP. Respondents' environmental perceptions of the GGP were significantly influenced by the number of available laborers, their education and health levels, off-farm income, subsidies, and the accessibility of transportation. Therefore, further resources should be dedicated to improving education as well as rural health care and infrastructure in order to create more off-farm job opportunities for GGP participants. In addition, decision makers should carefully redesign supporting policies, such as payments for ecosystem services, to help poor participants rebuild their livelihoods.

Long-Term Impact of China’s Returning Farmland to Forest Program on Rural Economic Development

The Returning Farmland to Forest Program (RFFP) is widely known as one of China’s largest and most successful payment schemes for ecosystem service projects for the achievement of both environmental and economic sustainability. By sponsoring afforestation activities and compensating farmers for converting cropland to forest, the project was designed to achieve multiple goals. Ecologically, the program aims to expand forest cover and to reduce flood and soil erosion. Economically, it aims to alleviate poverty and improve rural livelihoods. Although the official metrics indicate successful program outcomes in the short term, researchers have reported mixed and controversial results for long-term outcomes. We combined the difference-in-difference (DID) with instrumental variables (IVs) regression to examine the long-term effects of China’s RFFP on local economic development. We found that (1) the RFFP has had a remarkably positive impact on local economic growth in the primary sector, but considerably limits the growth of enterprises above a designated size by 16.8%; (2) the RFFP is unable to promote the development of the secondary industry because it cannot effectively promote the transfer of rural laborers to the secondary industry sector; and (3) in addition to increasing the general budgetary expenditure of local finance by 7.50%, this program has significantly reduced local fiscal revenue by 35.50%. We suggest that eco-compensation should consider the performance of the RFFP in its evaluation criteria.

Nexus of grazing management with plant and soil properties in northern China grasslands

Grasslands provide habitats for living organisms and livelihoods for ~800 million people globally. Many grasslands in developing countries are severely degraded. Some measures have been taken to curb the trend of degradation for decades. It is important to determine how decade-long rejuvenation efforts affected grassland ecosystems. We identified 65 data-rich studies based on six criteria, from >2500 relevant publications, and generated a dataset with 997 rows and 12 variables. The dataset covers different grazing intensities (grazing exclusion, light, moderate, and heavy grazing) and their impacts on plant traits (vegetation coverage, aboveground and root biomass, and plant diversity) and soil physiochemical properties (bulk density, moisture content, organic C, total and available N, total and available P, C:N ratio, and pH). The dataset could be used to (i) quantify the effectiveness of rejuvenation processes by determining the impact on plant community and soil properties, (ii) perform comprehensive analyses to elucidate large-picture effects of grazing management and rejuvenation, and (iii) analyze the impact of grass-climate-soil-human interactions on grassland ecosystem sustainability.

The Impact of China’s Grain for Green Program on Rural Economy and Precipitation: A Case Study of Yan River Basin in the Loess Plateau

Large-scale deforestation and abandoned planting will bring about the destruction of the ecological environment and the deterioration of the climate. In 1999, China initiated its “Grain for Green” Program (GGP) to improve the ecological environment, control soil erosion, and adjust the agricultural industrial structure to promote the sustainable development of the rural economy. In this paper, economic statistics, rainfall, and remote sensing data are used to analyze the impact of the GGP on agricultural and rural economic development and regional precipitation in the hilly and gully regions of the Loess Plateau. The results show that since the implementation of the program, the employment structure of the labor force has changed and the regional economic growth and farmers’ income have increased. From 2000 to 2016, the total gross domestic product (GDP) and per capita GDP of the Yan River Basin increased. The conversion of large-scale sloping farmland to forestry and grassland resulted in the decrease of farmland area and the increase of forestry area. The maximum, minimum, and mean value of vegetation coverage increased year by year. With the increase of vegetation coverage, the surface roughness, soil water content, and evapotranspiration improved and annual average precipitation grew significantly after the implementation of the program (2000 to 2018). From 1970 to the implementation of the project (1999), the annual average rainfall decreased at the trough from 1988 to 1999, and there was an overall upward trend from 1970 to 2018. The GGP has an important impact on the economy and people’s income in the Yan River Basin, and the vegetation change caused by the variation of land use types has a certain impact on regional rainfall. Under the background of global and regional climate change, it is of great significance to fully understand the impacts of vegetation conversion on climate and its mechanism for objective assessment of driving factors in regional and global climate, as well as for scientific planning of future land use.

The Second Phase of the Grain for Green Program: Adapting the Largest Reforestation Program in the World to the New Conditions in Rural China

This paper introduces the second phase of the Grain for Green. The first phase ran from 1999 to 2014, and the second phase started in 2015. The second phase of the GfG (GfG/2) addresses some problems of the first phase (GfG/1), in particular the lack of income for the farmers, as well as some changes to the rural areas, in particular the small number of remaining farmers. The paper describes how the GfG/2 (unlike the GfG/1) encourages farmers to organize themselves in cooperatives, or work with investors, and grow fruit trees to generate sustainable incomes. The paper also describes the constraints that prevent the smooth implementation of the GfG/2, in particular the insufficient financial support, the fact that some of the land that should be converted is "essential farmland", and the small and scattered pieces of farmland. The paper argues that in spite of this, the program is likely to succeed, and help farmers generate sustainable incomes. The paper is based in four periods of fieldwork in Chongqing Municipality, Shaanxi Province, and Yunnan Province and extensive interviews of farmers and government officers.

Landscape Sustainability in the Loess Hilly Gully Region of the Loess Plateau: A Case Study of Mizhi County in Shanxi Province, China

In general, specific indicators of landscape sustainability are missing. To spatially evaluate landscape sustainability and its change in a rural landscape, the authors combined ecological and social components to develop an indicator system and a model based on information entropy. Four types of information entropy, namely, landscape service capability, landscape service demand, landscape vulnerability and landscape adaptation, were calculated using year-based information entropy to analyze the spatial-temporal differentiation of a rural ecosystem. Combined with the landscape composition and configuration indicators, the spatial and temporal differentiation of landscape sustainability was analyzed, and the effect of landscape structure on landscape sustainability was explored. Based on survey data from Mizhi County, Shaanxi Province, China from 2009 to 2014, the following results were obtained: (1) An analysis of entropy change could be used to evaluate landscape sustainability. (2) The carrying capacity of the complex ecosystem in the study area increased during the study period. (3) If the effect of landscape structure is not considered, then the landscape sustainability of the study area might be overestimated. Additionally, it was pointed out that the analysis of landscape sustainability through Boltzmann entropy also provides a new way to test and verify the research results in the future.