Participatory Modeling of Water Vulnerability in Remote Alaskan Households Using Causal Loop Diagrams

Shifting Safeties and Mobilities on the Land in Arctic North America: A Systematic Approach to Identifying the Root Causes of Disaster

Amid the surge in research on mobility and migration in the context of environmental change, little research has focused on the experiences of people for whom travel is cyclical and a part of daily, weekly, or seasonal life. For Inuit in Arctic North America, the land is the heart of cultural and community life. Disruption to time spent on the land is reported to impact the emotional health and well-being of individuals and communities. There is concern that environmental change is creating barriers to safe travel, constituting a creeping disaster. We systematically review and evaluate the literature for discussion of barriers to travel for Inuit in Arctic North America, using an approach from the field of disaster anthropology to identify root causes of constraints to mobility. We identify root causes of risk and barriers to time spent on the land. These emerge from historic and contemporary colonial policy and inequality, as opposed to environmental hazards per se, impacting people’s mobility in profound ways and enacting a form of slow violence. These results suggest a need to understand the underlying processes and institutions that put people at risk.

Application of a Water Supply-Demand Balance Model to Set Priorities for Improvements in Water Supply Systems: A Case Study from the Koshi River Basin, Nepal

Water scarcity is one of the leading challenges for sustainable development in the context of climate change, particularly for agriculturally reliant countries. Inadequate water supplies tend to generate environmental and health issues. Improvements in water supply systems should give priority to the region with the most severe mismatch between water supply and demand. To set priorities for the improvement of water supply systems, this study proposed a water supply-demand balance model to quantify the water supply-demand gap in the Koshi River basin and compared it with the traditional water vulnerability model. The results suggested that (1) the water supply-demand balance model had good applicability to the Koshi River basin and was superior to traditional models in identifying the region with the most severe mismatch; (2) the shortage of agricultural water was much more serious than that of domestic water in the basin; (3) the largest supply-demand gap of domestic water was in Tarai and that of agricultural water was in the hill areas; and (4) Four districts, including Lalitpur, Mahottari, Makwanpur, and Solukhumbu, were found to be the most water-stressed regions and priority should be given to them. Based on these findings, the priority setting in the improvement of water supply systems and adaptation strategies for mitigating water stress from the perspectives of the government, communities, and households were presented. It helps design water supply systems that match heterogeneous demands and optimize systems operation. Targeted improvements in water supply systems can make limited funds available to benefit more residents.

Assessment and Prediction of Water Resources Vulnerability Based on a NRS-RF Model: A Case Study of the Song-Liao River Basin, China

The vulnerability of water resources is an important criterion for evaluating the carrying capacity of water resources systems under the influence of climate change and human activities. Moreover, assessment and prediction of river basins’ water resources vulnerability are important means to assess the water resources security state of river basins and identify possible problems in future water resources systems. Based on the constructed indicator system of water resources vulnerability assessment in Song-Liao River Basin, this paper uses the neighborhood rough set (abbreviated as NRS) method to reduce the dimensionality of the original indicator system to remove redundant attributes. Then, assessment indicators’ standard values after dimensionality reduction are taken as the evaluation sample, and the random forest regression (abbreviated as RF) model is used to assess the water resources vulnerability of the river basin. Finally, based on data under three different future climate and socio-economic scenarios, scenario predictions are made on the vulnerability of future water resources. The results show that the overall water resources vulnerability of the Song-Liao River Basin has not improved significantly in the past 18 years, and the overall vulnerability of the Song-Liao River Basin is in the level V of moderate to high vulnerability. In the future scenario 1, the overall water resources vulnerability of the river basin will improve, and it is expected to achieve an improvement to the level III of moderate to low vulnerability. At the same time, the natural vulnerability and vulnerability of carrying capacity will increase significantly in the future, and the man-made vulnerability will increase slowly, which will deteriorate to the level V of moderate to high vulnerability under Scenario 3. Therefore, taking active measures can significantly reduce the vulnerability of nature and carrying capacity, but man-made vulnerability will become a bottleneck restricting the fragility of the overall water resources of the river basin in the future.