Predicting early intrahepatic recurrence after curative resection of colorectal liver metastases with molecular markers

Prognostic factors associated with early recurrence following liver resection for colorectal liver metastases: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the 3rd most common malignancy with the liver being the most common site of metastases. The recurrence rate of colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) after liver resection (LR) is notably high, with an estimated 40% of patients experiencing recurrence within 6 months. In this context, we conducted a meta-analysis to synthesize and evaluate the reliability of evidence pertaining to prognostic factors associated with early recurrence (ER) in CRLM following LR.

METHODS

Systematic searches were conducted from the inception of databases to July 14, 2023, to identify studies reporting prognostic factors associated with ER. The Quality in Prognostic Factor Studies (QUIPS) tool was employed to assess risk-of-bias for included studies. Meta-analysis was then performed on these prognostic factors, summarized by forest plots. The grading of evidence was based on sample size, heterogeneity, and Egger's P value.

RESULTS

The study included 24 investigations, comprising 12705 individuals, during an accrual period that extended from 2007 to 2023. In the evaluation of risk-of-bias, 22 studies were rated as low/moderate risk, while two studies were excluded because of high risk. Most of the studies used a postoperative interval of 6 months to define ER, with 30.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 24.1-36.4%) of the patients experiencing ER following LR. 21 studies were pooled for meta-analysis. High-quality evidence showed that poor differentiation of CRC, larger and bilobar-distributed liver metastases, major hepatectomy, positive surgical margins, and postoperative complications were associated with an elevated risk of ER. Additionally, moderate-quality evidence suggested that elevated levels of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA199), lymph node metastases (LNM) of CRC, and a higher number of liver metastases were risk factors for ER.

CONCLUSION

This review has the potential to enhance the efficacy of surveillance strategies, refine prognostic assessments, and guide judicious treatment decisions for CRLM patients with high risk of ER. Additionally, it is essential to undertake well-designed prospective investigations to examine additional prognostic factors and develop salvage therapeutic approaches for ER of CRLM.

Identification of patients at high risk for recurrence in carcinoma of the ampulla of Vater: Analysis in 460 patients

Aim

Carcinoma of the ampulla of Vater (CAV) shows a favorable prognosis compared to that with the other periampullary tumors, while some cases have a poor prognosis. The aims of the present study are to clarify the clinicopathological factors associated with poor recurrence-free survival (RFS) in patients with CAV after curative resection and to validate the usefulness of adjuvant chemotherapy (AC).

Patients

The study design is a multicenter retrospective cohort study. Patients with CAV who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy between January 2008 and December 2020 at 26 hospitals were analyzed. The 30 clinicopathological factors were evaluated. A propensity score matching (PSM) was used to compare between patients with and without AC.

Results

Finally, 460 patients were analyzed. Median duration of follow-up was 47.2 months. Twenty-one prognostic factors associated with poor RFS were identified by univariate analysis. In multivariate analysis, aged ≥71, tumor diameter ≥12 mm, pT2 or higher stage (pT≥2), portal vein invasion (PV+), venous invasion(V+), and node positive disease (pN+) were independent prognostic factors for poor RFS. Out of 80 patients who received AC, 63 patients were assigned to analysis for PSM. The results showed no beneficial effect of AC on RFS. The preoperative factors potentially predicting pT≥2, V+, and/or N+ were at least one of following; (1) CA19-9 > 37 IU/mL, (2) ulcerative or mixed type appearance, (3) except for well-differentiated tumor, or (4) except for intestinal subtype of histology.

Conclusions

Aged ≥71, tumor diameter ≥12 mm, pT≥2, PV+, V+, and pN+ were independent prognostic factors for poor RFS in patients with CAV. An additional therapeutic strategy may be desirable in CAV patients at high risk for recurrence.

Cancer stem cell marker expression and methylation status in patients with colorectal cancer

The number of individuals diagnosed with colorectal cancer (CRC) has been on an alarming upward trajectory over the past decade. In some countries, this cancer represents one of the most frequently diagnosed types of neoplasia. Therefore, it is an important demand to study the pathology underlying this disease to gain insights into the mechanism of resistance to treatment. Resistance of tumors to chemotherapy and tumor aggressiveness have been associated with a minor population of neoplastic cells, which are considered to be responsible for tumor recurrence. These types of neoplastic cells are known as cancer stem cells, which have been previously reported to serve an important role in pathogenesis of this malignant disease. Slovakia has one of the highest incidence rates of CRC worldwide. In the present study, the aim was to classify the abundance of selected stem cell markers (CD133, CD166 and Lgr5) in CRC tumors using flow cytometry. In addition, the methylation status of selected genomic regions of CRC biomarkers (ADAMTS16, MGMT, PROM1 (CD133), LGR5 and ALCAM) was investigated by pyrosequencing in a cohort of patients from Martin University Hospital, Martin, Slovakia. Samples from both primary tumors and metastatic tumors were tested. Analysis of DNA methylation in the genomic regions of indicated five CRC biomarkers was also performed, which revealed the highest levels of methylation in the A disintegrin and metalloproteinase with thrombospondin motifs 16 and O6-methyguanine-DNA methyl transferase genes, whereas the lowest levels of methylation were found in genes expressing prominin-1, leucine-rich repeat-containing G-protein-coupled receptor 5 and activated leukocyte cell adhesion molecule. Furthermore, tumor tissues from metastases showed significantly higher levels of CD133⁺ cells compared with that in primary tumors. Higher levels of CD133⁺ cells correlated with TNM stage and the invasiveness of CRC into the lymphatic system. Although relatively small number of samples was processed, CD133 marker was consider to be important marker in pathology of CRC.

Very Early Recurrence After Liver Resection for Colorectal Metastases: Incidence, Risk Factors, and Prognostic Impact

BACKGROUND

Liver resection for colorectal metastases is affected by a non-negligible recurrence rate. The earlier the recurrence, the worse the prognosis. We analyzed an unexplored topic, i.e., the incidence, predictive factors, and prognostic impact of very early recurrence (≤ 3 months after hepatectomy).

METHODS

All consecutive liver resections for colorectal metastases performed between 2004 and 2017 were retrospectively reviewed. Inclusion criteria were available recurrence status at 3 months after resection and follow-up ≥ 12 months.

RESULTS

Overall, 484 patients were analyzed; 56 (11.6%) had very early recurrence. Independent predictors were number of metastases (very early recurrence in 3.7% of patients with solitary metastasis, 8.1% of those with 2-9 metastases; 20.0% of those with 10-14 metastases; 44.4% of those with ≥ 15 metastases, p < 0.001) and extrahepatic disease (very early recurrence in 23.2% of patients with vs. 10.1% of those without extrahepatic disease, p = 0.017). Very early recurrence rate in patients with ≥ 15 metastases and simultaneous extrahepatic disease was 71.4%. Patients with very early recurrence had poor survival (5-year survival 17.3% vs. 44.5% of non-very early recurrence patients, p < 0.001), worse than patients with 3-to-6 months recurrence (p = 0.070), and no different from unresected patients (p = 0.114). Fifteen patients with very early recurrence (26.8%) underwent repeated treatment with adequate survival (at 3 years 42.2%), but seven had a further recurrence within 3 months.

CONCLUSIONS

Very early recurrence occurs in about 12% of patients undergoing aggressive surgery for colorectal metastases. The risk is increased in patients with numerous metastases or extrahepatic disease. Very early recurrence is associated with very poor prognosis, similar to that of unresected patients, and a low chance of effective repeated treatment.

Development and validation of novel scoring system for the prediction of disease recurrence following resection of colorectal liver metastasis

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to identify predictive factors for the recurrence of colorectal cancer liver metastasis (CRLM) and then to develop a corresponding novel scoring system that should improve the sensitivity of predicting recurrence in patients with CRLM.

METHODS

A total of 295 consecutive CRLM patients were enrolled in our institution between January 2002 and December 2015. Multivariate analyses were performed to identify the variables associated with disease recurrence and established the novel scoring system based on it.

RESULTS

The scoring system considered seven variables: synchronosity, CA19-9 level, number of liver metastasis, largest size of liver metastasis, resection margin of hepatic lesion, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and prognostic nutritional index. The area under the curve of ROC was 0.824 (95% confidence interval 0.767-0.882); the sensitivity of our scoring system was 87.9%, specificity was 66.7%, positive predictive value was 20.6%, and negative predictive value was 20.9%.

CONCLUSION

For patients with CRLM undergoing curative hepatic resection, our novel scoring system would improve the sensitivity for prediction of disease recurrence in Case of CRLM patients.

Incidental Gallbladder Carcinoma Discovered after Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy: Identifying Patients Who will Benefit from Reoperation

BACKGROUND

Despite an early radical reoperation, recurrence and poor survival are observed in up to 40% of patients with an incidentally discovered gallbladder carcinoma (I-GBC) after undergoing a laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC). This study seeks to identify prognostic factors after re-I-GBC resection.

METHODS

A retrospective review of a prospectively maintained patient database with patients who were undergoing resection for I-GBC from January 1995 to March 2017 was performed. Prognostic factors for survival were assessed by multivariate Cox analysis.

RESULTS

There were 50 consecutive patients (median age 64 years; range 38-82) undergoing reoperation 45 ± 30 days after LC. Re-resection entailed a major hepatectomy in five patients (10%) and lymphadenectomy in all patients. Ninety-day morbidity and mortality were 22 and 2%, respectively. Lymph node (LN) involvement was present in 24 (48%) patients with a mean of 5.79 ± 14.4 LN+. Median overall survival was 40 months with 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year survival rates of 80, 50, 41 and 36%, respectively. Independent risk factors for overall survival were T3 tumours (HR = 7.58; 95% confidence intervals (CI), 2.41-23.83.) and LN involvement (HR = 3.66; 95% CI, 1.42-9.45). Patients presenting with zero, one and two risk factors had 3-year survival rates of 85, 31 and 0%, respectively, and median overall survival of 80, 22 and 13 months, respectively (p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

After I-GBC discovery following an LC, T3 tumours and tumours with LN+ are characterised by poor prognosis. The presence and the identification of these prognostic factors help identify patients in need of alternative perioperative treatments.

Use of Tumor Markers in Gastrointestinal Cancers: Surgeon Perceptions and Cost-Benefit Trade-Off Analysis

BACKGROUND

Gastrointestinal cancers constitute the third most common cancers worldwide. Tumor markers have long since been used in the postoperative surveillance of these malignancies; however, the true value in clinical practice remains undetermined.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the clinical utility of three tumor markers in colorectal and esophagogastric cancer.

METHODS

A systematic review of the literature was undertaken to elicit the sensitivity, specificity, statistical heterogeneity and ability to predict recurrence and metastases for carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), cancer antigen (CA) 19-9 and CA125. European surgeons were surveyed to assess their current practice and the characteristics of tumor markers they most valued. Data from the included studies and survey were combined in a cost-benefit trade-off analysis to assess which tumor markers are of most use in clinical practice.

RESULTS

Diagnostic sensitivity and specificity were ranked the most desirable characteristics of a tumor marker by those surveyed. Overall, 156 studies were included to inform the cost-benefit trade-off. The cost-benefit trade-off showed that CEA outperformed both CA19-9 and CA125, with lower financial cost and a higher sensitivity, and diagnostic accuracy for metastases at presentation (area under the curve [AUC] 0.70 vs. 0.61 vs. 0.46), as well as similar diagnostic accuracy for recurrence (AUC 0.46 vs. 0.48).

CONCLUSIONS

Cost-benefit trade-off analysis identified CEA to be the best performing tumor marker. Further studies should seek to evaluate new tumor markers, with investigation tailored to factors that meet the requirements of practicing clinicians.

Early Recurrence After Hepatectomy for Colorectal Liver Metastases: What Optimal Definition and What Predictive Factors?

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study was to determine the optimal definition and elucidate the predictive factors of early recurrence after surgery for colorectal liver metastases (CRLM).

METHODS

Among 987 patients who underwent curative surgery for CRLM from 1990 to 2012, 846 with a minimum follow-up period of 24 months were eligible for this study. The minimum p value approach of survival after initial recurrence was used to determine the optimal cutoff for the definition of early recurrence. The predictive factors of early recurrence and prognostic factors of survival were analyzed.

RESULTS

For 667 patients (79%) who developed recurrence, the optimal cutoff point of early recurrence was determined to be 8 months after surgery. The impact of early recurrence on survival was demonstrated mainly in patients who received preoperative chemotherapy. Among the 691 patients who received preoperative chemotherapy, recurrence was observed in 562 (81%), and survival in patients with early recurrence was significantly worse than in those with late recurrence (5-year survival 18.5% vs. 53.4%, p < .0001). Multivariate logistic analysis identified age ≤57 years (p = .0022), >1 chemotherapy line (p = .03), disease progression during last-line chemotherapy (p = .024), >3 tumors (p = .0014), and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 >60 U/mL (p = .0003) as independent predictors of early recurrence. Salvage surgery for recurrence significantly improved survival, even in patients with early recurrence.

CONCLUSION

The optimal cutoff point of early recurrence was determined to be 8 months. The preoperative prediction of early recurrence is possible and crucial for designing effective perioperative chemotherapy regimens.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

In this study, the optimal cutoff point of early recurrence was determined to be 8 months after surgery based on the minimum p value approach, and its prognostic impact was demonstrated mainly in patients who received preoperative chemotherapy. Five factors, including age, number of preoperative chemotherapy lines, response to last-line chemotherapy, number of tumors, and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 concentrations, were identified as predictors of early recurrence. Salvage surgery for recurrence significantly improved survival, even in patients with early recurrence. For better selection of patients who could truly benefit from surgery and should also receive strong postoperative chemotherapy, the accurate preoperative prediction of early recurrence is crucial.