Identification of Recurrence-Predictive Indicators in Stage I Colorectal Cancer

Cost-effectiveness of surveillance intervals after curative resection of colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Major guidelines consistently recommend 5 years of postoperative surveillance for patients with colorectal cancer. However, they differ in their recommendations for examination intervals and whether they should vary according to disease stage. Furthermore, there are no reports on the cost-effectiveness of the different surveillance schedules. The objective of this study is to identify the most cost-effective surveillance intervals after curative resection of colorectal cancer.

METHODS

A total of 3701 patients who underwent curative surgery for colorectal cancer at the National Cancer Center Hospital were included. A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted for the five surveillance strategies with reference to the guidelines. Expected medical costs and quality-adjusted life years after colorectal cancer resection were calculated using a state-transition model by Monte Carlo simulation. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per quality-adjusted life years gained was calculated for each strategy, with a maximum acceptable value of 43 500-52 200 USD (5-6 million JPY).

RESULTS

Stages I, II and III included 1316, 1082 and 1303 patients, respectively, with 45, 140 and 338 relapsed cases. For patients with stage I disease, strategy 4 (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio $26 555/quality-adjusted life year) was considered to be the most cost-effective, while strategies 3 ($83 071/quality-adjusted life year) and 2 ($289 642/quality-adjusted life year) exceeded the threshold value. In stages II and III, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for strategy 3 was the most cost-effective option, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $18 358-22 230/quality-adjusted life year.

CONCLUSIONS

In stage I, the cost-effectiveness of intensive surveillance is very poor and strategy 4 is the most cost-effective. Strategy 3 is the most cost-effective in stages II and III.

Determinants of survival and recurrence in patients with stage I colorectal cancer

Background

Due to the novel advanced screening methods, the number of patients diagnosed with stage I colorectal cancer (CRC) is increasing. This retrospective cohort study aimed to identify recurrence and survival risk factors of patients with stage I CRC after surgery.

Materials and methods

Patients with stage I CRC were evaluated, and their demographic and clinicopathologic variables were recorded. The log-rank test assessed the association of variables with overall survival (OS), recurrence-free survival (RFS), local recurrence, and distant metastasis.

Results

The median overall survival period was 51 months. The recurrence rate was 13.7%: 7.2% local and 9.3% distant recurrence. One-, two-, three-, and five-year RFS were 92%, 89%, 87%, and 83%, respectively, and OS were 96%, 93%, 90%, and 89%, respectively. Local and distant recurrence rates were higher in patients with higher tumor grades. Additionally, RFS and OS were worse in patients with higher tumor grades, and perforation was associated with worse OS.

Conclusions

The determinants of survival and recurrence identified in the present study can be used to improve patient outcomes by early diagnosis and appropriate management of high-risk patients.

Preoperative prediction of lymphovascular invasion of colorectal cancer by radiomics based on 18F-FDG PET-CT and clinical factors

Purpose

The purpose of this study was to investigate the value of a clinical radiomics model based on Positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET-CT) radiomics features combined with clinical predictors of Lymphovascular invasion (LVI) in predicting preoperative LVI in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC).

Methods

A total of 95 CRC patients who underwent preoperative 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) PET-CT examination were retrospectively enrolled. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to analyse clinical factors and PET metabolic data in the LVI-positive and LVI-negative groups to identify independent predictors of LVI. We constructed four prediction models based on radiomics features and clinical data to predict LVI status. The predictive efficacy of different models was evaluated according to the receiver operating characteristic curve. Then, the nomogram of the best model was constructed, and its performance was evaluated using calibration and clinical decision curves.

Results

Mean standardized uptake value (SUVmean), maximum tumour diameter and lymph node metastasis were independent predictors of LVI in CRC patients (P < 0.05). The clinical radiomics model obtained the best prediction performance, with an Area Under Curve (AUC) of 0.922 (95%CI 0.820-0.977) and 0.918 (95%CI 0.782-0.982) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. A nomogram based on the clinical radiomics model was constructed, and the calibration curve fitted well (P > 0.05).

Conclusion

The clinical radiomics prediction model constructed in this study has high value in the preoperative individualized prediction of LVI in CRC patients.

Survival outcomes of stage I colorectal cancer: development and validation of the ACEPLY model using two prospective cohorts

BACKGROUND

Approximately 10% of stage I colorectal cancer (CRC) patients experience unfavorable clinical outcomes after surgery. However, little is known about the subset of stage I patients who are predisposed to high risk of recurrence or death. Previous evidence was limited by small sample sizes and lack of validation.

METHODS

We aimed to identify early indicators and develop a risk stratification model to inform prognosis of stage I patients by employing two large prospective cohorts. Prognostic factors for stage II tumors, including T stage, number of nodes examined, preoperative carcinoma embryonic antigen (CEA), lymphovascular invasion, perineural invasion (PNI), and tumor grade were investigated in the discovery cohort, and significant findings were further validated in the other cohort. We adopted disease-free survival (DFS) as the primary outcome for maximum statistical power and recurrence rate and overall survival (OS) as secondary outcomes. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated from Cox proportional hazard models, which were subsequently utilized to develop a multivariable model to predict DFS. Predictive performance was assessed in relation to discrimination, calibration and net benefit.

RESULTS

A total of 728 and 413 patients were included for discovery and validation. Overall, 6.7% and 4.1% of the patients developed recurrences during follow-up. We identified consistent significant effects of PNI and higher preoperative CEA on inferior DFS in both the discovery (PNI: HR = 4.26, 95% CI: 1.70-10.67, p = 0.002; CEA: HR = 1.46, 95% CI: 1.13-1.87, p = 0.003) and the validation analysis (PNI: HR = 3.31, 95% CI: 1.01-10.89, p = 0.049; CEA: HR = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.10-2.28, p = 0.014). They were also significantly associated with recurrence rate. Age at diagnosis was a prominent determinant of OS. A prediction model on DFS using Age at diagnosis, CEA, PNI, and number of LYmph nodes examined (ACEPLY) showed significant discriminative performance (C-index: 0.69, 95% CI:0.60-0.77) in the external validation cohort. Decision curve analysis demonstrated added clinical benefit of applying the model for risk stratification.

CONCLUSIONS

PNI and preoperative CEA are useful indicators for inferior survival outcomes of stage I CRC. Identification of stage I patients at high risk of recurrence is feasible using the ACEPLY model, although the predictive performance is yet to be improved.

Identification of high-risk stage I colon and rectal cancer patients: a retrospective analysis of a large Japanese cohort

PURPOSE

Data regarding risk factors for recurrence in stage I colorectal cancer patients are limited. The aim of this study was to clarify the existence of a high-recurrence-risk population among stage I colorectal cancer patients.

METHODS

This analysis included 7,539 stage I colorectal cancer patients treated between 1997 and 2012 at 24 leading hospitals in Japan. Risk factors for time to recurrence were evaluated using a Cox proportional hazards model, and a high-risk group for recurrence was identified. Prognostic outcomes of high-risk stage I colorectal cancer patients were compared with those of low-risk stage I and stage II patients.

RESULTS

Multivariable analyses identified left-sided location (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.65, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09-2.58), T2 tumors (HR: 1.80, 95% CI: 1.21-2.66), and lymphatic invasion (HR: 1.55, 95% CI: 1.05-2.28) as risk factors for recurrence in stage I colon cancer, and patients with these three risk factors were classified as high risk. For stage I rectal cancer, patients with poor differentiation (HR: 2.86, 95% CI: 1.21-5.69), T2 tumors (HR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.07-2.23), and venous invasion (HR: 1.51, 95% CI: 1.08-2.13) were identified as high risk. The Kaplan-Meier analysis of cumulative recurrence rate and recurrence-free survival revealed that the high-risk stage I colorectal cancer patients have poorer clinical outcomes than the low-risk patients.

CONCLUSION

Although stage I colorectal cancer patients generally have a favorable prognosis after curative surgery, poorer prognosis was observed in high-risk stage I colorectal cancer patients than in low-risk patients.

Immune profile by multiplexed immunohistochemistry associated with recurrence after chemoradiation in rectal cancer

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Evidence has emerged that a pretreatment immune profile in rectal cancer is associated with response to chemoradiotherapy (CRT) and recurrence after CRT. However, few studies have evaluated the immune profile differences after CRT regarding recurrence and nonrecurrence.

METHODS

We included patients with advanced rectal cancer treated with CRT and surgery with recurrence within 1 year in a recurrence group. After sex and age matching with the recurrence group, patients with no recurrence for 3 years after CRT were included in a nonrecurrence group. We extracted the immune profile, including CD3 and CD8, from the surgical specimen after CRT using multispectral fluorescence immunohistochemistry and compared the two groups.

RESULTS

The immune profiles of 65 patients with rectal cancer were assessed; 30 were included in the recurrence group and 35 were included in the nonrecurrence group. CD3⁺ and CD8⁺ T lymphocyte densities were significantly higher in the nonrecurrence group than in the recurrence group (CD3⁺ ; P < 0.001, CD8⁺ ; P = 0.003) in the primary tumor. Consistent results were found in epithelial and stromal cells. Compared with the recurrence group, the distinct profiles of co-expressed immune markers in the nonrecurrence group were revealed (CD3⁺ CD8⁺ , P = 0.001; CD3⁺ CD8⁺ PD-L1^- , P = 0.001; CD3⁺ CD8⁺ FOXP3^- PD-L1^- , P = 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Vigorous CD3⁺ and CD8⁺ T cell priming post-CRT was prominent in the nonrecurrence group compared with that of the recurrence group. This finding suggests that differences in immune profiles may have clinical significance even after CRT.

Optimal cutoff value of preoperative CEA and CA19-9 for prognostic significance in patients with stage II/III colon cancer

PURPOSE

This unicentric, retrospective cohort study aimed to identify the optimal cutoff values of preoperative serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) for the prognosis in patients with stage II/III colon cancer.

METHODS

After excluding 43 patients with CA19-9 levels < 0.2 U/mL, 588 were included. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed to determine the optimal cutoff values of CEA and CA 19-9 for disease relapse.

RESULTS

The median CEA and CA19-9 values were 3.6 (interquartile range: 2.1-7.2 ng/mL) and 14.3 (interquartile range: 8.1-30.0) U/mL, respectively. The optimal cutoff values of CEA and CA19-9 were 5.4 ng/mL and 22.4 U/mL, respectively. A multivariate analysis of relapse-free survival (RFS) showed that cancer stage, CEA, and CA19-9 were significant independent factors. The RFS of patients with stages II and III colon cancer was significantly stratified by CEA (< 5.4/ ≥ 5.4 ng/mL) and CA19-9 (< 22.4/ ≥ 22.4 U/mL). Prognostication based on the reference values (< 5.0 ng/mL for CEA and < 37.0 U/mL for CA19-9) was less significant than that based on the optimal cutoff values. Both elevated CEA and CA19-9 had no value dependency on RFS: RFS curves were similar between extremely elevated CEA (≥ 54.0 ng/ml) and intermediate CEA (5.4-54.0 ng/ml) and between extremely elevated CA19-9 (≥ 224.0 U/ml) and intermediate CA19-9 (22.4-224.0 U/ml).

CONCLUSION

The optimal cutoff values of preoperative CEA and CA19-9 for RFS were 5.4 ng/ml and 22.4 U/mL, respectively, in patients with stages II and III colon cancer. Further relapse risk stratification is possible using these values.

Perineural invasion and number of retrieved lymph nodes are prognostic factors for T2N0 colon cancer

PURPOSE

The prognosis of pathological T2N0 colon cancer has not been adequately investigated. This study aimed to determine the prognostic factors for pathological T2N0 colon cancer by comparing it with those for pathological T3N0 colon cancer.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed patients with primary colon cancer who underwent curative resection between January 2007 and December 2015 and included 889 patients with postoperative pathological T2-3N0M0 disease. The clinicopathological characteristics were analyzed to identify the independent prognostic factors.

RESULTS

Pathological T2 (n = 185, 20.8%) and T3 (n = 704, 79.2%) tumors showed no difference in the 5-year disease-free survival (5Y DFS) rate (95.8% vs. 93.2%, p = 0.257) after a median follow-up of 55 months (range, 1-106 months). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that perineural invasion (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.041, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.122-3.712, p = 0.019) and number of retrieved lymph nodes < 12 (HR = 2.994, 95% CI 1.327-6.753, p = 0.008) were independent prognostic factors for DFS. Pathological T2 tumors with poor prognostic factors showed similar 5Y DFS as that of T3 tumors with poor prognostic factors (88.9% vs. 88.6%, p = 0.916), but not with T3 tumors without poor prognostic factors (88.9% vs. 95.0%, p = 0.089).

CONCLUSION

Pathological T2N0 colon cancer showed oncologic outcomes similar to that of T3N0 colon cancer. Therefore, more intensive surveillance is necessary for patients with high-risk T2N0 colon cancer.

The risk factors of local recurrence and distant metastasis on pT1/T2N0 mid-low rectal cancer after total mesorectal excision

Background

Radical resection is associated with good prognosis among patients with cT1/T2Nx rectal cancer. However, still some of the patients experienced cancer recurrence following radical resection. This study tried to identify the postoperative risk factors of local recurrence and distant metastasis separately.

Methods

This retrospective, single-center study comprised of 279 consecutive patients from Linkou branch of Chang Gung Memorial Hospital in 2005–2016 with rectal adenocarcinoma, pT1/T2N0M0 at distance from anal verge ≤ 8cm, who received curative radical resection.

Results

The study included 279 patients with pT1/pT2N0 mid-low rectal cancer with median follow-up of 73.5 months. Nineteen (6.8%) patients had disease recurrence in total. Nine (3.2%) of them had local recurrence, and fourteen (5.0%) of them had distant metastasis. Distal resection margin < 0.9 (cm) (hazard ratio = 4.9, p = 0.050) was the risk factor of local recurrence. Preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) ≥ 5 ng/mL (hazard ratio = 9.3, p = 0.0003), lymph node yield (LNY) < 14 (hazard ratio = 5.0, p = 0.006), and distal resection margin < 1.4cm (hazard ratio = 4.0, p = 0.035) were the risk factors of distant metastasis.

Conclusion

For patients with pT1/pT2N0 mid-low rectal cancer, current multidisciplinary treatment brings acceptable survival outcome. Insufficient distal resection margin attracted the awareness of risk factors for local recurrence and distant metastasis as a foundation for future research.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12957-021-02223-4.

Recurrence, death risk, and related factors in patients with stage 0 colorectal cancer: A nationwide population-based study

In this study, the National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan was used to examine the recurrence and death risk for stage 0 colorectal cancer patients. We examined stage 0 colorectal cancer patients to identify factors causing recurrence and death.This is a retrospective study, and stage 0 colorectal cancer patients that are registered in the Taiwan Cancer Registry of the Health Promotion Administration in 2007 to 2012 were included. The database was linked to the National Health Insurance Research Database, and subjects were followed up until the end of 2016. The mean follow-up period was 69 months. Bivariate analysis methods (log-rank test) and Cox proportional hazards model were used to evaluate the risk of recurrence and death and demographic characteristics, economic factors, environmental factors, health factors, treatment and hospitals, and absence/presence of postoperative tests were used to examine related risk factors.Our study showed that the 5-year recurrence rate and 5-year mortality rate for stage 0 colorectal cancer are 1.68% and 0.6%, respectively. For stage 0 colorectal cancer, age (61-74 years) is the only factor affecting recurrence in patients (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.44; 95% CI: 1.41-4.22), while age >75 years (HR = 4.35; 95% CI: 1.14-16.68) and Charlson Comorbidity Index >4 points (HR = 7.20, 95% CI: 2.60-19.94) can increase the risk of death. In contrast, patients who underwent one (HR = 0.27, 95% CI: 0.10-0.71) and two or more colonoscopies (HR = 0.26, 95% CI: 0.10-0.70) within 2 years after surgery can reduce the risk of death from stage 0 colorectal cancer. In addition, the risk of recurrence is higher in patients who underwent colonoscopic polypectomy (HR = 2.07, 95% CI: 0.98-4.33) and patients with rectal cancer (HR = 2.74, 95% CI: 0.96-7.83), but these differences are not statistically significant (P > .05).From this study, we can see that age and comorbidity index increase the risk of recurrence and death for stage 0 colorectal cancer, while postoperative colonoscopy can decrease the risk of death.

The clinical influence of the preoperative lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio on the postoperative outcome of patients with early-stage gastrointestinal cancer

AIM

The lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) is useful for predicting the prognosis of patients with gastric cancer (GC) and those with colorectal cancer (CRC) undergoing surgery. The relationship between the LMR and postoperative outcome of patients with early-stage gastrointestinal cancers such as stage I GC and CRC remains unclear.

METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated 323 stage I GC and 152 stage I CRC patients undergoing surgery. Univariate and multivariate analyses using the Cox proportional hazards model were performed to identify the clinical characteristics associated with overall survival (OS), and the cut-off values of these variables were determined by receiver operating characteristic analysis. The Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test were used for postoperative survival comparisons according to the LMR (GC: LMR < 4.2 vs ≥4.2; CRC: LMR < 3.0 vs ≥3.0).

RESULTS

Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed that OS was significantly associated with the LMR (<4.2/≥4.2) (HR, 2.489; 95% CI, 1.317-4.702; P = 0.005), as well as age (>75/≤75 years) (HR, 3.511; 95% CI, 1.881-6.551; P < 0.001) and albumin level (≤3.5/>3.5 g/dL) (HR, 3.040; 95% CI, 1.575-5.869; P = 0.001), in stage I GC patients. Survival analysis demonstrated a significantly poorer OS in stage I GC patients with a LMR < 4.2 compared with ≥4.2 (P < 0.001). In stage I CRC patients, despite a significant difference in OS according to the LMR (<3.0 vs ≥3.0) (P = 0.040), univariate analysis revealed no significant association between the LMR and OS.

CONCLUSION

LMR is a useful predictor of the postoperative outcome of stage I GC patients treated surgically.

Long-term Transanal Excision Outcomes in Patients With T1 Rectal Cancer: Comparative Analysis of Radical Resection

Purpose

Transanal excision (TAE) is an alternative surgical procedure for early rectal cancer. This study compared long-term TAE outcomes, in terms of survival and local recurrence (LR), with total mesorectal excision (TME) in patients with pathologically confirmed T1 rectal cancer.

Methods

T1 rectal adenocarcinoma patients who underwent surgery from 1990 to 2011 were retrospectively reviewed. Patients that were suspected to have preoperative lymph node metastasis were excluded. Demographics, recurrence, and survival were analyzed based on TAE and TME surgery.

Results

Of 268 individuals, 61 patients (26%) underwent TAE, which was characterized by proximity to the anus, submucosal invasion depth, and lesion infiltration, compared with TME patients (P < 0.001–0.033). During a median follow-up of 10.4 years, 12 patients had systemic and/or LR. Ten-year cancer-specific survival in the TAE and TME groups was not significantly different (98% vs. 100%). However, the 10-year LR rate in the TAE group was greater than that of TME group (10% vs. 0%, P < 0.001). Although 5 of the 6 TAE patients with LR underwent salvage surgery, one of the patients eventually died. The TAE surgical procedure (hazard ratio, 19.066; P = 0.007) was the only independent risk factor for LR.

Conclusion

Although long-term survival after TAE was comparable to that after TME, TAE had a greater recurrence risk than TME. Thus, TAE should only be considered as an alternative surgical option for early rectal cancer in selected patients.

The Value of the C-Reactive Protein-to-Albumin Ratio is Useful for Predicting Survival of Patients with Child-Pugh Class A Undergoing Liver Resection for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Although a recent study has shown that the C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio (CAR) can predict the survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), it is unclear whether CAR can predict the survival after surgery.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the utility of CAR for prediction of postoperative survival among HCC patients with Child-Pugh class A.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed 239 patients with Child-Pugh class A who were newly diagnosed with HCC and received initial liver resection. Univariate and multivariate analyses using the Cox proportional hazard model were performed to detect clinical characteristics that correlated with overall survival (OS), and their cutoff values were identified using receiver operating characteristic curve analyses. The cutoff value of CAR was 0.028. Kaplan-Meier analysis and the log-rank test were used for the comparison of OS and disease-free survival (DFS) between two CAR groups (>0.028/≤0.028).

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis using 16 clinical characteristics selected by univariate analyses revealed that CAR (>0.028/≤0.028) (HR, 3.211; 95% CI 1.065-9.680; P = 0.038) was significantly associated with OS, as well as anatomical resection (presence/absence) (HR, 0.275; 95% CI 0.119-0.635; P = 0.275). A significant difference in OS and DFS was observed between patients with low CAR (≤0.028) and patients with high CAR (>0.028).

CONCLUSIONS

CAR is a useful predictor of postoperative survival among HCC patients with Child-Pugh class A.

Identifying CpG sites with different differential methylation frequencies in colorectal cancer tissues based on individualized differential methylation analysis

A big challenge to clinical diagnosis and therapy of colorectal cancer (CRC) is its extreme heterogeneity, and thus it would be of special importance if we could find common biomarkers besides subtype-specific biomarkers for CRC. Here, with DNA methylation data produced by different laboratories, we firstly revealed that the relative methylation-level orderings (RMOs) of CpG sites within colorectal normal tissues are highly stable but widely disrupted in the CRC tissues. This finding provides the basis for using the RankComp algorithm to identify differentially methylated (DM) CpG sites in every individual CRC sample through comparing the RMOs within the individual sample with the stable RMOs predetermined in normal tissues. For 75 CRC samples, RankComp detected averagely 4,062 DM CpG sites per sample and reached an average precision of 91.34% in terms that the hypermethylation or hypomethylation states of the DM CpG sites detected for each cancer sample were consistent with the observed differences between this cancer sample and its paired adjacent normal sample. Finally, we applied RankComp to identify DM CpG sites for each of the 268 CRC samples from The Cancer Genome Atlas and found 26 and 143 genes whose promoter regions included CpG sites that were hypermethylated and hypomethylated, respectively, in more than 95% of the 268 CRC samples. Individualized pathway analysis identified six pathways that were significantly enriched with DM genes in more than 90% of the CRC tissues. These universal DNA methylation biomarkers could be important diagnostic makers and therapy targets for CRC.