Accuracy of Modern Clinical Risk Score Including RAS Status Changes Based on Whether Patients Received Perioperative Chemotherapy for Colorectal Liver Metastases

The impact of neoadjuvant therapy on the prognostic value of preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio for colorectal liver metastases: a multi-center cohort study

BACKGROUND

Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is a promising prognostic marker for patients undergoing hepatectomy for colorectal liver metastases (CRLM). However, its prognostic value in patients receiving neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) has not been sufficiently addressed.

METHODS

From 2013 to 2023, a cohort of 692 patients with CRLM receiving hepatectomy were enrolled in five centers. Clinicopathological characteristics were obtained from a prospectively maintained multi-center database. The effect of NLR (> 2 versus ≤ 2) on overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival was estimated by Kaplan-Meier analysis. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression analysis was applied to investigate the influence of individual clinicopathological parameters on OS.

RESULTS

In the entire cohort, the median NLR level was 2.11 (0.30-16.33). There were 307 (44.4%) patients receiving NAT followed by hepatectomy, while 385 (55.6%) patients undergoing upfront surgery. Notably, patients in the NAT group showed significantly lower NLR level than those in the upfront surgery group (1.83 versus 2.32, P < 0.001). In the upfront surgery group, high NLR was significantly associated with worse OS, independent of other factors (HR = 1.49, 95% CI 1.08-2.05, P = 0.02). In the NAT group, there was no significant difference in OS between the high NLR and low NLR group.

CONCLUSION

The prognostic value of NLR in surgically resected CRLM is potentially influenced by NAT in the modern era.

Evaluating Combinations of Biological and Clinicopathologic Factors Linked to Poor Outcomes in Resected Colorectal Liver Metastasis: An External Validation Study

BACKGROUND

Recent studies have suggested that certain combinations of KRAS or BRAF biomarkers with clinical factors are associated with poor outcomes and may indicate that surgery could be "biologically" futile in otherwise technically resectable colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM). However, these combinations have yet to be validated through external studies.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We conducted a systematic search to identify these studies. The overall survival (OS) of patients with these combinations was evaluated in a cohort of patients treated at 11 tertiary centers. Additionally, the study investigated whether using high-risk KRAS point mutations in these combinations could be associated with particularly poor outcomes.

RESULTS

The recommendations of four studies were validated in 1661 patients. The first three studies utilized KRAS, and their validation showed the following median and 5-year OS: (1) 30 months and 16.9%, (2) 24.3 months and 21.6%, and (3) 46.8 months and 44.4%, respectively. When analyzing only patients with high-risk KRAS mutations, median and 5-year OS decreased to: (1) 26.2 months and 0%, (2) 22.3 months and 15.1%, and (3) not reached and 44.9%, respectively. The fourth study utilized BRAF, and its validation showed a median OS of 10.4 months, with no survivors beyond 21 months.

CONCLUSION

The combinations of biomarkers and clinical factors proposed to render surgery for CRLM futile, as presented in studies 1 (KRAS high-risk mutations) and 4, appear justified. In these studies, there were no long-term survivors, and survival was similar to that of historic cohorts with similar mutational profiles that received systemic therapies alone for unresectable disease.

Clinical Prediction Models for Prognosis of Colorectal Liver Metastases: A Comprehensive Review of Regression-Based and Machine Learning Models

Colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM) is a disease entity that warrants special attention due to its high frequency and potential curability. Identification of "high-risk" patients is increasingly popular for risk stratification and personalization of the management pathway. Traditional regression-based methods have been used to derive prediction models for these patients, and lately, focus has shifted to artificial intelligence-based models, with employment of variable supervised and unsupervised techniques. Multiple endpoints, like overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS) and development or recurrence of postoperative complications have all been used as outcomes in these studies. This review provides an extensive overview of available clinical prediction models focusing on the prognosis of CRLM and highlights the different predictor types incorporated in each model. An overview of the modelling strategies and the outcomes chosen is provided. Specific patient and treatment characteristics included in the models are discussed in detail. Model development and validation methods are presented and critically appraised, and model performance is assessed within a proposed framework.

Prognostic Models Incorporating RAS Mutation to Predict Survival in Patients with Colorectal Liver Metastases: A Narrative Review

Recurrence and survival vary widely among patients who undergo curative-intent resection of colorectal liver metastases (CRLM). Prognostic models provide estimated probabilities of these outcomes and allow the effects of multiple potentially interacting variables to be adjusted and assessed simultaneously. Although many prognostic models based on clinicopathologic factors have been developed since the 1990s to predict survival after resection of CRLM, these models vary in their predictive performance when applied to contemporary cohorts. Rat sarcoma viral oncogene homolog (RAS) mutation status is routinely tested in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer to predict response to anti-epidermal growth factor therapy. In addition, mutations in RAS predict survival and recurrence in patients undergoing hepatectomy for CRLM. Several recent prognostic models have incorporated RAS mutation status as a surrogate of tumor biology and combined revised clinicopathologic variables to improve the prediction of recurrence and survival. This narrative review aims to evaluate the differences between contemporary prognostic models incorporating RAS mutation status and their clinical applicability in patients considered for curative-intent resection of CRLM.