A higher percentage of cells with 13q deletion predicts worse outcome in Chinese patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia carrying isolated 13q deletion

Prognostic Potential of Galectin-9 mRNA Expression in Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia

Galectin-9 (Gal-9), very poorly characterized in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), was chosen in our study to examine its potential role as a CLL biomarker. The relation of Gal-9 expression in malignant B-cells and other routinely measured CLL markers, as well as its clinical relevance are poorly understood. Gal-9 mRNA expression was quantified with RT-qPCR in purified CD19+ B-cells of 100 CLL patients and analyzed in the context of existing clinical data. Our results revealed the upregulation of Gal-9 mRNA in CLL cells. High Gal-9 mRNA expression was closely associated with unfavorable prognostic markers. In addition, Gal-9 expression in leukemic cells was significantly elevated in CLL patients who did not respond to the first-line therapy compared to those who did respond. This suggests its potential predictive value. Importantly, Gal-9 was an independent predictor for the time to treatment parameters. Thus, we can suggest an adverse role of Gal-9 expression in CLL. Interestingly, it is possible that Gal-9 expression is induced in B-cells by EBV infection, so we determined the patients' EBV status. Our suggestion is that EBV coinfection could worsen prognosis in CLL, partly due to Gal-9 expression upregulation caused by EBV.

An Anomaly with Potential as a New Prognostic Marker in CLL with del(13q): Gain of 16p13.3

Deletion 13q [del(13q)] is a favorable prognostic marker if it is detected as a sole abnormality in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). However the clinical courses of cases with isolated del(13q) are quite heterogeneous. In our study, we investigated copy number variations (CNVs), loss of heterozygosity (LOH), and the size of del(13q) in 30 CLL patients with isolated del(13q). We used CGH+SNP microarrays in order to understand the cause of this clinical heterogeneity. We detected del(13q) in 28/30 CLL cases. The size of the deletion varied from 0.34 to 28.81 Mb, and there was no clinical effect of the deletion size. We found new prognostic markers, especially the gain of 16p13.3. These markers have statistically significant associations with short time to first treatment and advanced disease stage. Detecting both CNVs and LOH at the same time is an advantageous feature of aCGH+SNP. However, it is very challenging for the array analysis to detect mosaic anomalies. Therefore, it is very important to confirm the results by FISH. In our study, we detected approximately 9% mosaic del(13q) by microarray. In addition, the gain of 16p13.3 may affect the disease prognosis in CLL. However, additional studies with more patients are needed to confirm these results.

Low prevalence and independent prognostic role of del(11q) in Chinese patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia

The 11q deletion (del(11q)) is a conventional cytogenetic aberration observed in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) patients. However, the prevalence and the prognostic value of del(11q) are still controversial. In this research, we retrospectively explored the prevalence, association, and prognostic significance of del(11q) in 352 untreated and 99 relapsed/refractory Chinese CLL patients. Totally 11.4% of untreated and 19.2% of relapsed/refractory patients harbored del(11q). Del(11q) was more common in patients with β2-microglobulin > 3.5 mg/L, positive CD38, positive zeta-chain associated protein kinase 70, unmutated immunoglobulin heavy variable-region gene and ataxia telangiectasia mutated mutation. Kaplan-Meier method and univariate Cox regression indicated that del(11q) was an independent prognostic factor for overall survival (OS). Based on the results of univariate Cox regression analysis, two nomograms that included del(11q) were established to predict survival. Desirable area under curve of receiver operating characteristic curves was obtained in the training and validation cohorts. In addition, the calibration curves for the probability of survival showed good agreement between the prediction by nomogram and actual observation. In summary, the prevalence of del(11q) is relatively low in our cohort and del(11q) is an unfavorable prognostic factor for untreated CLL patients. Besides, these two nomograms could be used to accurately predict the prognosis of untreated CLL patients.

Which prognostic marker is responsible for the clinical heterogeneity in CLL with 13q deletion?

BACKGROUND

Deletion of 13q14 [del(13q)] is the most common cytogenetic change (50%) in chronic lymphoblastic leukemia (CLL), and it is a good prognostic factor if it is detected as a sole aberration by FISH. However, it is observed the clinical course of CLL cases with del(13q) are quite heterogeneous and the responsible for this clinical heterogeneity has not been established yet. Some investigators suggest type II deletion (include RB1 gene) is associated with more aggressive clinical course. Also, it is suggested that the deletion burden and the deletion type have a prognostic effect. In this study, we aimed to investigate the effect of RB1 gene deletion, deletion burden and deletion type on overall survival (OS), disease stage and time to first treatment (TTFT) in patients with isolated del(3q). Sixty eight cases, detected isolated del(13q) were included in the study. Also, RB1 deletion was analyzed from peripheral blood of them using FISH.

RESULTS

RB1 deletion was detected in 41% of patients, but there was no statistically significant difference between RB1 deletion and TTFT, stage and OS (p > 0.05). At same time, statistically significant difference was detected between high del(13q) (> 80%) and TTFT (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The statistical analysis of our data regarding to the association between RB1 deletion and deletion type, TTFT, disease stage, and OS has not confirmed type II deletion or biallelic deletion cause poor prognosis. However, our data supports the deletion burden has a prognostic effect. More studies are needed to elucidate the cause of the clinical heterogeneity of CLL cases with del(13q).

Prognostic models for newly-diagnosed chronic lymphocytic leukaemia in adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) is the most common cancer of the lymphatic system in Western countries. Several clinical and biological factors for CLL have been identified. However, it remains unclear which of the available prognostic models combining those factors can be used in clinical practice to predict long-term outcome in people newly-diagnosed with CLL.

OBJECTIVES

To identify, describe and appraise all prognostic models developed to predict overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS) or treatment-free survival (TFS) in newly-diagnosed (previously untreated) adults with CLL, and meta-analyse their predictive performances.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched MEDLINE (from January 1950 to June 2019 via Ovid), Embase (from 1974 to June 2019) and registries of ongoing trials (to 5 March 2020) for development and validation studies of prognostic models for untreated adults with CLL. In addition, we screened the reference lists and citation indices of included studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included all prognostic models developed for CLL which predict OS, PFS, or TFS, provided they combined prognostic factors known before treatment initiation, and any studies that tested the performance of these models in individuals other than the ones included in model development (i.e. 'external model validation studies'). We included studies of adults with confirmed B-cell CLL who had not received treatment prior to the start of the study. We did not restrict the search based on study design.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We developed a data extraction form to collect information based on the Checklist for Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS). Independent pairs of review authors screened references, extracted data and assessed risk of bias according to the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). For models that were externally validated at least three times, we aimed to perform a quantitative meta-analysis of their predictive performance, notably their calibration (proportion of people predicted to experience the outcome who do so) and discrimination (ability to differentiate between people with and without the event) using a random-effects model. When a model categorised individuals into risk categories, we pooled outcome frequencies per risk group (low, intermediate, high and very high). We did not apply GRADE as guidance is not yet available for reviews of prognostic models.

MAIN RESULTS

From 52 eligible studies, we identified 12 externally validated models: six were developed for OS, one for PFS and five for TFS. In general, reporting of the studies was poor, especially predictive performance measures for calibration and discrimination; but also basic information, such as eligibility criteria and the recruitment period of participants was often missing. We rated almost all studies at high or unclear risk of bias according to PROBAST. Overall, the applicability of the models and their validation studies was low or unclear; the most common reasons were inappropriate handling of missing data and serious reporting deficiencies concerning eligibility criteria, recruitment period, observation time and prediction performance measures. We report the results for three models predicting OS, which had available data from more than three external validation studies: CLL International Prognostic Index (CLL-IPI) This score includes five prognostic factors: age, clinical stage, IgHV mutational status, B2-microglobulin and TP53 status. Calibration: for the low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups, the pooled five-year survival per risk group from validation studies corresponded to the frequencies observed in the model development study. In the very high-risk group, predicted survival from CLL-IPI was lower than observed from external validation studies. Discrimination: the pooled c-statistic of seven external validation studies (3307 participants, 917 events) was 0.72 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67 to 0.77). The 95% prediction interval (PI) of this model for the c-statistic, which describes the expected interval for the model's discriminative ability in a new external validation study, ranged from 0.59 to 0.83. Barcelona-Brno score Aimed at simplifying the CLL-IPI, this score includes three prognostic factors: IgHV mutational status, del(17p) and del(11q). Calibration: for the low- and intermediate-risk group, the pooled survival per risk group corresponded to the frequencies observed in the model development study, although the score seems to overestimate survival for the high-risk group. Discrimination: the pooled c-statistic of four external validation studies (1755 participants, 416 events) was 0.64 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.67); 95% PI 0.59 to 0.68. MDACC 2007 index score The authors presented two versions of this model including six prognostic factors to predict OS: age, B2-microglobulin, absolute lymphocyte count, gender, clinical stage and number of nodal groups. Only one validation study was available for the more comprehensive version of the model, a formula with a nomogram, while seven studies (5127 participants, 994 events) validated the simplified version of the model, the index score. Calibration: for the low- and intermediate-risk groups, the pooled survival per risk group corresponded to the frequencies observed in the model development study, although the score seems to overestimate survival for the high-risk group. Discrimination: the pooled c-statistic of the seven external validation studies for the index score was 0.65 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.70); 95% PI 0.51 to 0.77.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Despite the large number of published studies of prognostic models for OS, PFS or TFS for newly-diagnosed, untreated adults with CLL, only a minority of these (N = 12) have been externally validated for their respective primary outcome. Three models have undergone sufficient external validation to enable meta-analysis of the model's ability to predict survival outcomes. Lack of reporting prevented us from summarising calibration as recommended. Of the three models, the CLL-IPI shows the best discrimination, despite overestimation. However, performance of the models may change for individuals with CLL who receive improved treatment options, as the models included in this review were tested mostly on retrospective cohorts receiving a traditional treatment regimen. In conclusion, this review shows a clear need to improve the conducting and reporting of both prognostic model development and external validation studies. For prognostic models to be used as tools in clinical practice, the development of the models (and their subsequent validation studies) should adapt to include the latest therapy options to accurately predict performance. Adaptations should be timely.

98% IGHV gene identity is the optimal cutoff to dichotomize the prognosis of Chinese patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia

Immunoglobulin heavy chain variable region (IGHV) mutational status has been an important prognostic factor for chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) for decades. Patients with unmutated IGHV (≥98% identity to the germline sequence) have inferior prognosis and tend to carry unfavorable genetic markers compared to those with mutated IGHV (<98% identity to the germline sequence). However, 98% as the cutoff for IGHV mutational status is a mathematical choice and remains controversial. We have previously reported distinct IGHV repertoire features between Chinese and western CLL populations. Here, we retrospectively studied 595 Chinese CLL patients to determine the best cutoff value for IGHV in Chinese CLL population. Using 1% as the interval for IGHV identity, we divided the studied cohort into seven subgroups from 95% to 100%. Briefer time to first treatment (TTFT) and overall survival (OS) were observed in cases with ≥98% compared to those with <98%, while the differences were obscure within subgroups ≥98% (98%-98.99%, 99%-99.99%, and 100%) and <98% (<94.99%, 95%-95.99%, 96%-96.99%, and 97%-97.99%). Multivariate analysis confirmed the independent prognostic value of 98% being the cutoff for IGHV identity in terms of both TTFT and OS. All the prognostic factors, including del(17p13), del(11q22.3), TP53 mutation, MYD88 mutation, NOTCH1 mutation, SF3B1 mutation, CD38, ZAP-70, Binet staging, gender, and β2-microglobulin, were significantly different in distribution between group <98% and group ≥98%, but not among subgroups 98%-98.99%, 99%-99.99%, and 100%. In conclusion, 98% is the optimal cutoff of IGHV identity for the prognosis evaluation of Chinese CLL patients.