Spatial distribution in Norwegian lemming Lemmus lemmus in relation to the phase of the cycle

Lemming winter habitat: the quest for warm and soft snow

During the cold arctic winter, small mammals like lemmings seek refuge inside the snowpack to keep warm and they dig tunnels in the basal snow layer, usually formed of a soft depth hoar, to find vegetation on which they feed. The snowpack, however, is a heterogenous medium and lemmings should use habitats where snow properties favor their survival and winter reproduction. We determined the impact of snow physical properties on lemming habitat use and reproduction in winter by sampling their winter nests for 13 years and snow properties for 6 years across 4 different habitats (mesic, riparian, shrubland, and wetland) on Bylot Island in the Canadian High Arctic. We found that lemmings use riparian habitat most intensively because snow accumulates more rapidly, the snowpack is the deepest and temperature of the basal snow layer is the highest in this habitat. However, in the deepest snowpacks, the basal depth hoar layer was denser and less developed than in habitats with shallower snowpacks, and those conditions were negatively related to lemming reproduction in winter. Shrubland appeared a habitat of moderate quality for lemmings as it favored a soft basal snow layer and a deep snowpack compared with mesic and wetland, but snow conditions in this habitat critically depend on weather conditions at the beginning of the winter. With climate change, a hardening of the basal layer of the snowpack and a delay in snow accumulation are expected, which could negatively affect the winter habitat of lemmings and be detrimental to their populations.

Resources and predation: drivers of sociality in a cyclic mesopredator

In socially flexible species, the tendency to live in groups is expected to vary through a trade-off between costs and benefits, determined by ecological conditions. The Resource Dispersion Hypothesis predicts that group size changes in response to patterns in resource availability. An additional dimension is described in Hersteinsson’s model positing that sociality is further affected by a cost–benefit trade-off related to predation pressure. In the arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus), group-living follows a regional trade-off in resources’ availability and intra-guild predation pressure. However, the effect of local fluctuations is poorly known, but offers an unusual opportunity to test predictions that differ between the two hypotheses in systems where prey availability is linked to intra-guild predation. Based on 17-year monitoring of arctic fox and cyclic rodent prey populations, we addressed the Resource Dispersion Hypothesis and discuss the results in relation to the impact of predation in Hersteinsson’s model. Group-living increased with prey density, from 7.7% (low density) to 28% (high density). However, it remained high (44%) despite a rodent crash and this could be explained by increased benefits from cooperative defence against prey switching by top predators. We conclude that both resource abundance and predation pressure are factors underpinning the formation of social groups in fluctuating ecosystems.

A beacon of dung: using lemming (Lemmus lemmus) winter nests and DNA analysis of faeces to further understand predator–prey dynamics in Northern Sweden

The hypothesis that predation is the cause of the regular small rodent population oscillations observed in boreal and Arctic regions has long been debated. Within this hypothesis, it is proposed that the most likely predators to cause these destabilizing effects are sedentary specialists, with small mustelids being possible candidates. One such case would be the highly specialized least weasel (Mustela nivalis) driving the Norwegian lemming (Lemmus lemmus) cycle in Fennoscandia. These predators are often elusive and therefore distribution data can only be based on field signs, which is problematic when various mustelid species are sympatric, such as weasels and stoats (Mustela erminea). Here we present the results of using mustelid faeces in predated winter lemming nests to correctly identify the predator and thus discern which species exerts the strongest predation pressure on lemming winter populations. Samples were obtained during different phases in the lemming cycle, spanning 6 years, to account for different prey densities. Faecal mitochondrial DNA extraction and amplification of a 400-bp fragment was successful in 92/114 samples (81%); the sequencing of these samples proved that most predation occurrences (83%) could be attributed to the least weasel. These findings support the hypothesis that weasels in particular show high specificity in predation and could therefore be candidates to driving the lemming cycle in this area. We conclude that DNA analysis of faecal remains around predated nests can be a useful tool for further investigations concerning predator–prey interactions in the tundra.

Landscape-scale habitat associations of small mammals on the western coast of Hudson Bay

Availability of suitable habitat affects the distribution and abundance of Arctic fauna, influencing how species respond to climate change and disturbance from resource extraction in the region. We surveyed Arctic ground squirrels (Urocitellus parryii (Richardson, 1825)) using distance sampling transects and concurrently counted microtine rodent burrows. Abundance of Arctic ground squirrels and microtine burrows was positively correlated with terrain ruggedness. Microtine burrows were more abundant inland and in areas with freshwater, whereas Arctic ground squirrels were more often found at low elevation without freshwater. Arctic ground squirrel abundance was positively related to the normalized difference water index, a proxy for vegetation water content, whereas microtine burrows were weakly correlated with the normalized difference vegetation index. Our study highlights the habitat associations of ecologically significant small mammals in an underrepresented Arctic study area.

Relating the 4-year lemming (Lemmus spp. and Dicrostonyx spp.) population cycle to a 3.8-year lunar cycle and ENSO

Reported peak years of lemming (Lemmus spp. and Dicrostonyx spp.) and Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus (Linnaeus, 1758)) abundance were compiled from the literature for 12 locations spanning 127 years. The mean period of the 34 reported lemming and Arctic fox cycles from 1868 to 1994 was 3.8 years, suggesting that the period of the 4-year cycle is actually 3.8 years. Peak population years were predicted using a simple model based on a 3.8-year lunar cycle. For nearly 130 years, reported years of peak abundance of lemmings and Arctic foxes were significantly correlated with and have persistently stayed in phase with predicted peak years of abundance. Over the same period, predicted peak years of lemming abundance have been closely aligned with peak (i.e., La Niña) years of the January–March Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). From 1952 to 1995, peak flowering in Norway tended to occur close to trough June–August SOI (El Niño) years. The hypothesis proposed is that the 3.8-year lunar cycle governs the timing of the lemming cycle, but it does not cause the population cycling itself. If this hypothesis is true, then the heretofore unexplained source of the persistent periodicity and quasi-metronomic regularity of the lemming cycle is identified.