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Fabri-Ruiz S, Berdalet E, Ulses C, Somot S, Vila M, Lemée R, Irisson JO. Harmful Ostreopsis cf. ovata blooms could extend in time span with climate change in the Western Mediterranean Sea. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 947:174726. [PMID: 39002574 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174726] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2024] [Revised: 07/09/2024] [Accepted: 07/10/2024] [Indexed: 07/15/2024]
Abstract
Fast environmental changes and high coastal human pressures and impacts threaten the Mediterranean Sea. Over the last decade, recurrent blooms of the harmful dinoflagellate Ostreopsis cf. ovata have been recorded in many Mediterranean beaches. These microalgae produce toxins that affect marine organisms and human health. Understanding the environmental conditions that influence the appearance and magnitude of O. cf. ovata blooms, as well as how climate change will modify its future distribution and dynamics, is crucial for predicting and managing their effects. This study investigates whether the spatio-temporal distribution of this microalga and the frequency of its blooms could be altered in future climate change scenarios in the Mediterranean Western basin. For the first time, an ecological habitat model (EHM) is forced by physico-chemical climate change simulations at high-resolution, under the strong greenhouse gas emission trajectory (RCP8.5). It allows to characterize how O. cf. ovata may respond to projected conditions and how its distribution could shift over a wide spatial scale, in this plausible future. Before being applied to the EHM, future climate simulations are further refined by using a statistical adaptation method (Cumulative Distribution Function transform) to improve the predictions robustness. Temperature (optimum 23-26 °C), high salinity (>38 psu) and high inorganic nutrient concentrations (nitrate >0.25 mmol N·m-3 and phosphate >0.035 mmol P·m-3) drive O. cf. ovata abundances. High spatial disparities in future abundances are observed. Namely, O. cf. ovata abundances could increase on the Mediterranean coasts of France, Spain and the Adriatic Sea while a decrease is expected in the Tyrrhenian Sea. The bloom period could be extended, starting earlier and continuing later in the year. From a methodological point of view, this study highlights best practices of EHMs in the context of climate change to identify sensitive areas for current and future harmful algal blooms.
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Affiliation(s)
- S Fabri-Ruiz
- Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Laboratoire d'Océanographie de Villefranche, Villefranche-sur-Mer, France; DECOD, L'Institut Agro, IFREMER, INRAE, 44000 Nantes, France.
| | - E Berdalet
- Institute of Marine Sciences (ICM-CSIC), Barcelona, Spain
| | - C Ulses
- Laboratoire d'Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales (LEGOS), Université de Toulouse, CNES, CNRS, IRD, UT3, Toulouse, France
| | - S Somot
- CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
| | - M Vila
- Institute of Marine Sciences (ICM-CSIC), Barcelona, Spain
| | - R Lemée
- Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Laboratoire d'Océanographie de Villefranche, Villefranche-sur-Mer, France
| | - J-O Irisson
- Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Laboratoire d'Océanographie de Villefranche, Villefranche-sur-Mer, France
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Koerich G, Fraser CI, Lee CK, Morgan FJ, Tonkin JD. Forecasting the future of life in Antarctica. Trends Ecol Evol 2023; 38:24-34. [PMID: 35934551 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2022.07.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/23/2022] [Revised: 07/12/2022] [Accepted: 07/15/2022] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
Antarctic ecosystems are under increasing anthropogenic pressure, but efforts to predict the responses of Antarctic biodiversity to environmental change are hindered by considerable data challenges. Here, we illustrate how novel data capture technologies provide exciting opportunities to sample Antarctic biodiversity at wider spatiotemporal scales. Data integration frameworks, such as point process and hierarchical models, can mitigate weaknesses in individual data sets, improving confidence in their predictions. Increasing process knowledge in models is imperative to achieving improved forecasts of Antarctic biodiversity, which can be attained for data-limited species using hybrid modelling frameworks. Leveraging these state-of-the-art tools will help to overcome many of the data scarcity challenges presented by the remoteness of Antarctica, enabling more robust forecasts both near- and long-term.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gabrielle Koerich
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand.
| | - Ceridwen I Fraser
- Department of Marine Science, University of Otago, PO Box 56, Dunedin 9054, New Zealand
| | - Charles K Lee
- International Centre for Terrestrial Antarctic Research, School of Science, University of Waikato, Private Bag 3105, Hamilton 3240, New Zealand
| | - Fraser J Morgan
- Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research, Auckland 1072, New Zealand; Te Pūnaha Matatini, Centre of Research Excellence in Complex Systems, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Jonathan D Tonkin
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand; Te Pūnaha Matatini, Centre of Research Excellence in Complex Systems, Auckland, New Zealand; Bioprotection Aotearoa, Centre of Research Excellence, Canterbury, New Zealand.
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Guillaumot C, Belmaker J, Buba Y, Fourcy D, Dubois P, Danis B, Le Moan E, Saucède T. Classic or hybrid? The performance of next generation ecological models to study the response of Southern Ocean species to changing environmental conditions. DIVERS DISTRIB 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13617] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Charlène Guillaumot
- Marine Biology Lab Université Libre de Bruxelles Bruxelles Belgium
- Biogéosciences, UMR 6282 CNRS Université Bourgogne Franche‐Comté Dijon France
| | - Jonathan Belmaker
- School of Zoology, George S. Wise Faculty of Life Sciences Tel Aviv University Tel Aviv Israel
| | - Yehezkel Buba
- School of Zoology, George S. Wise Faculty of Life Sciences Tel Aviv University Tel Aviv Israel
| | - Damien Fourcy
- ESE, Ecology and Ecosystem Health, INRAE Rennes France
| | - Philippe Dubois
- Marine Biology Lab Université Libre de Bruxelles Bruxelles Belgium
| | - Bruno Danis
- Marine Biology Lab Université Libre de Bruxelles Bruxelles Belgium
| | - Eline Le Moan
- Biogéosciences, UMR 6282 CNRS Université Bourgogne Franche‐Comté Dijon France
| | - Thomas Saucède
- Biogéosciences, UMR 6282 CNRS Université Bourgogne Franche‐Comté Dijon France
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