Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for patients with intravesical recurrence after radical nephroureterectomy for non-metastatic upper tract urothelial carcinoma

Advanced Age Impacts Survival After Radical Nephroureterectomy for Upper Tract Urothelial Carcinoma

INTRODUCTION

Upper tract urothelial carcinoma is rare but has a poor prognosis. Prognostic factors have been extensively studied in order to provide the best possible management for patients. We have aimed to investigate commonly available factors predictive of recurrence and survival in this patient population at high risk of death and recurrence, with an emphasis on the effects of age (using a cutoff of 70 years) on survival outcomes.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

From 1387 patients with clinically nonmetastatic upper tract urothelial carcinoma treated with radical nephroureterectomy at 21 academic hospital centers between 2005 and 2021, 776 patients were eligible and included in the study. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression models were built to evaluate the independent prognosticators for intravesical and extravesical recurrence, overall survival, and cancer-specific survival according to age groups. A P value of <.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

We did not find an association between groups aged <70 and >70 years old and preoperatively clinical or histopathological characteristics. Kaplan-Meier analysis was found no statistical significance between the 2 age groups in terms of intravesical or extravesical recurrence (P = .09 and P = .57). Overall survival (P = .0001) and cancer-specific survival (P = .0001) have been found to be statistically significantly associated with age as independent predictors (confounding factors: gender, tumor size, tumor side, clinical T stage, localization, preoperative hydronephrosis, tumor localization, type of surgery, multifocality of the tumor, pathological grade, lymphovascular invasion, concomitant CIS, lymph node status, necrosis, or history of previous bladder cancer).

CONCLUSION

This research confirms that patients aged 70 and above who undergo radical nephroureterectomy may have worse outcomes compared to younger patients, older patients needing an improved care and management of UTUC to improve their outcomes in the setting of an increase in this aged population group.

Preoperative risk classification for intravesical recurrence after laparoscopic radical nephroureterectomy for upper tract urothelial carcinoma in a multi-institutional cohort

INTRODUCTION

This study aimed to identify preoperative risk factors and create a risk classification for intravesical recurrence of upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma only after laparoscopic radical nephroureterectomy in a multi-institutional cohort.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 283 patients who had undergone laparoscopic radical nephroureterectomy for nonmetastatic upper tract urothelial cancer between March 2002 and March 2020. The cumulative incidence of intravesical recurrence for 224 patients without previous or concomitant bladder cancer was examined using multivariate Fine-Gray competing risks proportional hazards models. A risk stratification model was created to predict subsequent patient outcomes based on the results.

RESULTS

The median follow-up duration was 33.3 months, and 71 (31.7%) patients experienced intravesical recurrence. The estimated cumulative incidence of intravesical recurrence at one and 5 years was 23.5% and 36.4%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, the presence of ureter tumors and multiple tumors were shown to be independently significant predictive factors for intravesical recurrence. Based on the results, we classified patients into three risk groups. The cumulative incidence rates of intravesical recurrence within 5 years after surgery were 24.4%, 42.5%, and 66.7% in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified risk factors and created a risk classification model for intravesical recurrence of upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma only after laparoscopic radical nephroureterectomy. Based on this model, an individualized surveillance protocol or adjuvant therapy could be provided.

Presence of secondary bladder cancer following radical nephroureterectomy for upper tract urothelial carcinoma: characteristics, risk factors, and predictive value

BACKGROUND

To assess the characteristics, predictive risk factors, and prognostic effect of secondary bladder cancer (SBCa) following radical nephroureterectomy (RNU) in upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC).

METHODS

Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database, the authors analyzed clinicopathologic characteristics and survival data from 472 UTUC patients with SBCa after RNU, between 2004 and 2017. Cox's proportional hazard regression model was implemented to identify independent predictors associated with post-recurrence outcomes. The threshold for statistical significance was p < 0.05.

RESULTS

In total, 200 Ta-3N0M0 localized UTUC patients with complete data were finally included. With a median follow-up of 71.0 months (interquartile ranges [IQR] 36.0 -103.8 months), 52.5% (n = 105) had died, with 30.5% (n = 61) dying of UTUC. The median time interval from UTUC to SBCa was 13.5 months (IQR 6.0-40.8 months). According to multivariable Cox regression analysis, patients with SBCa located at multiple sites, advanced SBCa stage, higher SBCa grade, elderly age and a shorter recurrence time, encountered worse cancer-specific survival (CSS), all p < 0.05.

CONCLUSION

For primary UTUC patients with SBCa after radical surgery, advanced age, multiple SBCa sites, shorter recurrence time, higher SBCa stage, and grade proved to be significant independent prognostic factors of CSS. We ought to pay more attention to SBCa prevention as well as to earlier signs which may increase the likelihood of early detection. Having the ability to manage what may be seen as the superficial SBCa signs may enable us to improve survival but further research is required.

A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Prognostic Nomograms After UTUC Surgery

Background

Current guidelines recommend assessing the prognosis in high-risk upper tract urothelial carcinoma patients (UTUC) after surgery. However, no specific method is endorsed. Among the various prognostic models, nomograms represent an easy and accurate tool to predict the individual probability for a specific event. Therefore, identifying the best-suited nomogram for each setting seems of great interest to the patient and provider.

Objectives

To identify, summarize and compare postoperative UTUC nomograms predicting oncologic outcomes. To estimate the overall performance of the nomograms and identify the most reliable predictors. To create a reference tool for postoperative UTUC nomograms, physicians can use in clinical practice.

Design

A systematic review was conducted following the recommendations of Cochrane’s Prognosis Methods Group. Medline and EMBASE databases were searched for studies published before December 2021. Nomograms were grouped according to outcome measurements, the purpose of use, and inclusion and exclusion criteria. Random-effects meta-analyses were performed to estimate nomogram group performance and predictor reliability. Reference tables summarizing the nomograms’ important characteristics were created.

Results

The systematic review identified 26 nomograms. Only four were externally validated. Study heterogeneity was significant, and the overall Risk of Bias (RoB) was high. Nomogram groups predicting overall survival (OS), recurrence-free survival (RFS), and intravesical recurrence (IVR) had moderate discrimination accuracy (c-Index summary estimate with 95% confidence interval [95% CI] and prediction interval [PI] > 0.6). Nomogram groups predicting cancer-specific survival (CSS) had good discrimination accuracy (c-Index summary estimate with 95% CI and PI > 0.7). Advanced pathological tumor stage (≥ pT3) was the most reliable predictor of OS. Pathological tumor stage (≥ pT2), age, and lymphovascular invasion (LVI) were the most reliable predictors of CSS. LVI was the most reliable predictor of RFS.

Conclusions

Despite a moderate to good discrimination accuracy, severe heterogeneity discourages the uninformed use of postoperative prognostic UTUC nomograms. For nomograms to become of value in a generalizable population, future research must invest in external validation and assessment of clinical utility. Meanwhile, this systematic review serves as a reference tool for physicians choosing nomograms based on individual needs.

Systematic Review Registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=282596, identifier PROSPERO [CRD42021282596].

Reduced Preoperative Glomerular Filtration Rate Is Associated With Adverse Postoperative Oncological Prognosis in Patients Undergoing Radical Nephroureterectomy for Upper Tract Urothelial Carcinoma: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Objective

To evaluate the association between perioperative estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and postoperative oncological outcomes in patients with upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) treated with radical nephroureterectomy (RNU),and to evaluate the effect of sex on this association.

Methods

The medical records of patients with UTUC who underwent RNU between January 2012 and December 2017 at our hospital were retrospectively reviewed. Patients were divided into three groups based on preoperative eGFRs: normal eGFR (>60 mL/min/1.73 m2; n = 179), moderately reduced eGFR (45-60 mL/min/1.73 m2; n = 45), and severely reduced eGFR (≤ 45 mL/min/1.73 m2; n = 36). Statistical analyses were performed to evaluate the prognostic impact of preoperative eGFR on prognosis.

Results

Patient mean age was 66.7 ± 9.6 years, and 47.9% were female. Multivariate regression analysis based on Cox proportional risk models and Kaplan-Meier survival rates showed that lower preoperative eGFR was associated with decreased OS, PFS, and CSS. In the adjusted Cox regression model, patients with normal and moderately reduced eGFRs had a decreased hazard for mortality, with adjusted hazard ratios of 0.13 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.07-0.26] and 0.36 (95% CI: 0.18-0.73), respectively (P < 0.001). The smooth fitting curve suggested a linear relationship between eGFR and prognostic survival. Additionally, sensitivity subgroup analyses verified an inverse relationship between the reduced eGFR and OS. Women had a lower eGFR and worse oncological outcomes than men. A nomogram for OS was developed based on multivariate analysis with a C-index of 0.754 (95% CI: 0.728-0.779).

Conclusion

Preoperative renal insufficiency is strongly associated with a higher risk of cancer progression and a lower survival probability. It is important to identify preoperative renal insufficiency in patients with UTUC, particularly female patients.

Prognostic Analysis of Diagnostic Ureteroscopic Biopsy for Intravesical Recurrence of Upper Urinary Tract Urothelial Carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to investigate whether diagnostic ureteroscopy (URS) biopsy is unfavourable for bladder tumour recurrence in upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of 195 patients diagnosed with UTUC, who were divided into a diagnostic URS group (URS+) and a nondiagnostic URS group (URS-) according to whether diagnostic ureteroscopic biopsy was performed. A Cox regression model was used to analyse the risk factors for intravesical recurrence (IVR)-free survival (IRFS) and overall survival (OS) in UTUC after radical nephroureterectomy (RNU). Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to estimate the influence of factors on the incidence of IVR and the cumulative survival rate of UTUC.

RESULTS

Patients with a maximum tumour diameter of less than 3.1 cm, low-stage tumours, and ureteral tumours were more likely to undergo diagnostic URS before radical surgery. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that tumour pathological stage and diagnostic ureteroscopic biopsy can be used as predictors of IVR after RNU (p = 0.019, 0.033). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis found that diagnostic ureteroscopic biopsy was a high-risk factor for IRFS (p = 0.034). Subcomponent analysis showed that pTa/Tis/T1, pT2, pT3/pT4 stage, and diagnostic ureteroscopic biopsy with pTa/Tis/T1 stage were unfavourable for IVR (p = 0.047).

CONCLUSION

Diagnostic ureteroscopic biopsy before RNU should be carefully selected for patients with atypical preoperative UTUC. We believe that intravesical chemotherapy drug perfusion can be used after surgery to prevent IVR if biopsy is unavoidable, but this still requires further prospective studies.

The first competing risk survival nomogram in patients with papillary renal cell carcinoma

There is still a lack of competing risk analysis of patients with papillary renal cell carcinoma (pRCC) following surgery. We performed the cumulative incidence function (CIF) to estimate the absolute risks of cancer-specific mortality (CSM) and other-cause mortality (OCM) of pRCC over time, and constructed a nomogram predicting the probability of 2-, 3- and 5-year CSM based on competing risk regression. A total of 5993 pRCC patients who underwent nephrectomy between 2010 and 2016 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The 2-, 3-, 5-year CSM rates were 3.2%, 4.4% and 6.5%, respectively, and that of OCM were 3.2%, 5.0% and 9.3%, respectively. The estimates of 5-year cumulative mortality were most pronounced among patients aged > 75 years in OCM (17.0%). On multivariable analyses, age, tumor grade, T stage, N stage, and with or without bone, liver and lung metastases were identified as independent predictors of CSM following surgery and were integrated to generate the nomogram. The nomogram achieved a satisfactory discrimination with the AUC_t of 0.730 at 5-year, and the calibration curves presented impressive agreements. Taken together, age-related OCM is a significant portion of all-cause mortality in elderly patients and our nomogram can be used for decision-making and patient counselling.

Intravesical Recurrence After Radical Nephroureterectomy of Upper Urinary Tract Urothelial Carcinoma: A Large Population-Based Investigation of Clinicopathologic Characteristics and Survival Outcomes

Background: Of patients with upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC), 22–47% developed bladder recurrence after radical nephroureterectomy. Furthermore, the effect of surgery for UTUC-bladder cancer (BC) has not been well validated. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of standard primary BC surgical strategy on survival of patients diagnosed with UTUC-BC.

Patients and Methods: A total of 676 UTUC-BC patients and 197,753 primary BC patients diagnosed from 2004 to 2016, were identified based on the SEER database. The Kaplan-Meier method and the Fine and Gray competing risks analysis were performed to assess overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific mortality (CSM). Multivariate Cox regression model and competing risks regression model were used to identify independent risk factors. Propensity score matching (PSM) was also performed to adjust potential confounding factors.

Results: The baseline characteristics and survival outcomes of the two BC patient cohorts are quite different. For UTUC-BC patients, no significant difference in OS (NMIBC: p = 0.88; MIBC: p = 0.98) or cumulative incidence of CSM (NMIBC: p = 0.12; MIBC: p = 0.96) were noted for various surgical procedures. Local tumor treatment and partial cystectomy for UTUC-NMIBC patients produced lower 1-year (6.1%) and 3-year CSM (16.2%). Radical cystectomy for UTUC-MIBC patients produced lower 1-year (11.8%) but higher 3-year CSM (62.7%). After PSM for covariates, UTUC-BC patients still had a worse prognosis after surgery compared with primary BC patients. Based on regression models, older age, advanced T stage, N positive disease, M positive disease, and shorter interval between UTUC and BC were identified as independent risk factors for UTUC-BC patients.

Conclusion: Standard primary BC surgical strategy did not provide significant survival benefit for UTUC-BC patients. Compared with primary BC patients, UTUC-BC patients had a worse prognosis after surgery, suggesting that current primary BC surgical guidelines are not entirely appropriate for UTUC-BC patients. Our findings underscore the continued importance and need for better prognosis and improved guidelines for management of UTUC-BC patients.

Survival nomogram for patients with upper tract recurrence after resection for localized bladder urothelial carcinoma

Aim: To develop a survival nomogram for patients with upper tract recurrence (UTR) after resection for localized bladder urothelial carcinoma (BUC). Methods: The data of 361 patients with UTR after resection for BUC registered in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database were retrospectively analyzed. The nomogram was established using the Fine and Gray method and its predictive accuracy was assessed using the concordance index. The nomogram was calibrated by comparing the predicted and actual survival. Results: The concordance index of the nomogram was 0.746 (95% CI: 0.733-0.759). Excellent agreement was observed between the predicted and actual survival in all calibration plots. Conclusion: This study describes the first survival nomogram for patients experienced UTR after resection for BUC.

Construction and validation of a novel prognostic nomogram for patients with sarcomatoid renal cell carcinoma: a SEER-based study

OBJECTIVE

The only one established prognostic nomogram for patients with sarcomatoid renal cell carcinoma (sRCC) was based on a small sample-sized study without external validation, and a nomogram can be applied to western sRCC patients has not yet been developed. Therefore, our study aimed to construct and validate an effective nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) for these patients.

METHODS

The independent predictors for OS were identified and the nomogram was constructed on the basis of a retrospective study of a training cohort consisted of 428 non-Hispanic white sRCC patients registered in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database from January 2010 to December 2015. Then, the discriminative performance of the nomogram was assessed by the concordance index (C-index). OS calibrations of the nomogram were also performed by comparing the nomogram-predicted probability to the observed survival rate. Furthermore, our nomogram was externally validated using two independent cohorts consisted of 71 non-Hispanic black patients and 82 Hispanic patients, respectively.

RESULTS

Age at diagnosis, T stage, N stage, bone metastases, liver metastases, lung metastases and nephrectomy were identified as independent predictors for OS. In the training cohort and two validation cohorts, the C-indexes of the nomogram were 0.737, 0.801 and 0.764, respectively. Besides, excellent agreements between the nomogram prediction and the actual observation were achieved in all cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

The current study constructed and validated an effective prognostic nomogram for patients with sRCC, which can be used to perform accurate predictions of the 0.5-, 1-, and 2-year possibilities of OS.