Nomogram for predicting fulminant necrotizing enterocolitis

A Nomogram for Predicting Surgical Risk in Neonates with Necrotizing Enterocolitis: A Retrospective Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES

To construct a nomogram that predicts the risk of surgery in patients with necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC).

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study recruited patients diagnosed with NEC at the Children's Hospital of Soochow University from 2013 to 2023. The neonates were divided into conservative and surgical-treatment groups. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were performed to identify factors influencing surgical risk, and a predictive model was constructed.

RESULTS

This study comprised 154 cases of NEC, 103 cases (66.9%) in the conservative group and 51 cases (33.1%) in the surgical group. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that increased bloody stools [odds ratio (OR) 5.066; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.7396-14.7532; p = 0.0029), oxygen inhalation (OR 1.8278; 95% CI 1.2113-2.7581; p = 0.0041), use of vasoconstrictors (OR 4.4446; 95% CI 1.7157-11.5137; p = 0.0021), portal venous gas (OR 4.5569; 95% CI 1.6324-12.7209; p = 0.0038), and blood sodium (OR 0.8339; 95% CI 0.7477-0.9301; p = 0.0011) were independent factors of surgical risk. The area under the nomogram's receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.886. Decision curve analysis (DCA) and calibration curves demonstrated good predictive performance for the nomogram.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram effectively assessed the risk of surgical intervention in NEC patients, providing new insights and references for diagnosing and treating NEC.

Neurodevelopmental impairment following surgical necrotizing enterocolitis with gestational age ≥ 28 weeks: who is at risk?

PURPOSE

Surgical necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) is a severe medical condition that, even after surgery, a portion of the survival infants may still have neurological sequelae. The objective of this study was to identify the risk factors associated with the development of permanent neurodevelopmental impairment (NDI) in neonates with surgical NEC.

METHODS

Between January 2016 and June 2022, a retrospective data collection was conducted on 98 individuals who experienced surgical NEC with gestational age ≥ 28 weeks. Among these patients, 27 patients were diagnosed with NDI, while the remaining 71 patients did not have NDI. Based on this division, the patients were categorized into the NDI group and the Non-NDI group. Demographics, comorbidities, and admission lab results were analyzed using univariate and logistic regression analyses.

RESULTS

Of the 98 neonates following surgical NEC, 27(27.6%) developed permanent neurodevelopmental impairment (NDI). Predictors of NDI were identified through the final multivariable logistic regression analysis, which revealed that gestational age ≤ 32 weeks (p = 0.032; odds ratio [OR], 5.673), assisted mechanical ventilation after NEC onset (p = 0.047; OR, 5.299), postoperative acute kidney injury (p = 0.040; OR, 5.106), CRP day 3 after NEC onset (p = 0.049; OR, 1.037), time from presentation to surgery (p = 0.003; OR, 1.047) were significant risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study identified gestational age ≤ 32 weeks, assisted mechanical ventilation after NEC onset, postoperative acute kidney injury, CRP day 3 after NEC onset, and time from presentation to surgery as significant risk factors for NDI in neonates with surgical NEC. These factors would be helpful to refine treatment modalities for better disease outcomes. We also determined the cut-off values of CRP day 3 after NEC onset and time from presentation to surgery, allowing for the individualized evaluation of NDI risk and the implementation of earlier targeted laparotomy.