Predicting pathologic complete response in locally advanced rectal cancer patients after neoadjuvant therapy: a machine learning model using XGBoost

Establishing and clinically validating a machine learning model for predicting unplanned reoperation risk in colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer significantly impacts global health, with unplanned reoperations post-surgery being key determinants of patient outcomes. Existing predictive models for these reoperations lack precision in integrating complex clinical data.

AIM

To develop and validate a machine learning model for predicting unplanned reoperation risk in colorectal cancer patients.

METHODS

Data of patients treated for colorectal cancer (n = 2044) at the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University and Wenzhou Central Hospital from March 2020 to March 2022 were retrospectively collected. Patients were divided into an experimental group (n = 60) and a control group (n = 1984) according to unplanned reoperation occurrence. Patients were also divided into a training group and a validation group (7:3 ratio). We used three different machine learning methods to screen characteristic variables. A nomogram was created based on multifactor logistic regression, and the model performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and decision curve analysis. The risk scores of the two groups were calculated and compared to validate the model.

RESULTS

More patients in the experimental group were ≥ 60 years old, male, and had a history of hypertension, laparotomy, and hypoproteinemia, compared to the control group. Multiple logistic regression analysis confirmed the following as independent risk factors for unplanned reoperation (P < 0.05): Prognostic Nutritional Index value, history of laparotomy, hypertension, or stroke, hypoproteinemia, age, tumor-node-metastasis staging, surgical time, gender, and American Society of Anesthesiologists classification. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the model had good discrimination and clinical utility.

CONCLUSION

This study used a machine learning approach to build a model that accurately predicts the risk of postoperative unplanned reoperation in patients with colorectal cancer, which can improve treatment decisions and prognosis.

Integrative Prognostic Machine Learning Models in Mantle Cell Lymphoma

Patients with mantle cell lymphoma (MCL), an incurable B-cell malignancy, benefit from accurate pretreatment disease stratification. We curated an extensive database of 862 patients diagnosed between 2014 and 2022. A machine learning (ML) gradient-boosted model incorporated baseline features from clinicopathologic, cytogenetic, and genomic data with high predictive power discriminating between patients with indolent or responsive MCL and those with aggressive disease (AUC ROC = 0.83). In addition, we utilized the gradient-boosted framework as a robust feature selection method for multivariate logistic and survival modeling. The best ML models incorporated features from clinical and genomic data types highlighting the need for correlative molecular studies in precision oncology. As proof of concept, we launched our most accurate and practical models using an application interface, which has potential for clinical implementation. We designated the 20-feature ML model-based index the "integrative MIPI" or iMIPI and a similar 10-feature ML index the "integrative simplified MIPI" or iMIPI-s. The top 10 baseline prognostic features represented in the iMIPI-s are: lactase dehydrogenase (LDH), Ki-67%, platelet count, bone marrow involvement percentage, hemoglobin levels, the total number of observed somatic mutations, TP53 mutational status, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance level, beta-2 microglobulin, and morphology. Our findings emphasize that prognostic applications and indices should include molecular features, especially TP53 mutational status. This work demonstrates the clinical utility of complex ML models and provides further evidence for existing prognostic markers in MCL.

Significance

Our model is the first to integrate a dynamic algorithm with multiple clinical and molecular features, allowing for accurate predictions of MCL disease outcomes in a large patient cohort.

MRI-based pre-Radiomics and delta-Radiomics models accurately predict the post-treatment response of rectal adenocarcinoma to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy

Objectives

To develop and validate magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based pre-Radiomics and delta-Radiomics models for predicting the treatment response of local advanced rectal cancer (LARC) to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT).

Methods

Between October 2017 and August 2022, 105 LARC NCRT-naïve patients were enrolled in this study. After careful evaluation, data for 84 patients that met the inclusion criteria were used to develop and validate the NCRT response models. All patients received NCRT, and the post-treatment response was evaluated by pathological assessment. We manual segmented the volume of tumors and 105 radiomics features were extracted from three-dimensional MRIs. Then, the eXtreme Gradient Boosting algorithm was implemented for evaluating and incorporating important tumor features. The predictive performance of MRI sequences and Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) for NCRT response were compared. Finally, the optimal pre-Radiomics and delta-Radiomics models were established respectively. The predictive performance of the radionics model was confirmed using 5-fold cross-validation, 10-fold cross-validation, leave-one-out validation, and independent validation. The predictive accuracy of the model was based on the area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC).

Results

There was no significant difference in clinical factors between patients with good and poor reactions. Integrating different MRI modes and the SMOTE method improved the performance of the radiomics model. The pre-Radiomics model (train AUC: 0.93 ± 0.06; test AUC: 0.79) and delta-Radiomcis model (train AUC: 0.96 ± 0.03; test AUC: 0.83) all have high NCRT response prediction performance by LARC. Overall, the delta-Radiomics model was superior to the pre-Radiomics model.

Conclusion

MRI-based pre-Radiomics model and delta-Radiomics model all have good potential to predict the post-treatment response of LARC to NCRT. Delta-Radiomics analysis has a huge potential for clinical application in facilitating the provision of personalized therapy.

Interpretable machine learning for predicting pathologic complete response in patients treated with chemoradiation therapy for rectal adenocarcinoma

Purpose

Pathologic complete response (pCR) is a critical factor in determining whether patients with rectal cancer (RC) should have surgery after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT). Currently, a pathologist's histological analysis of surgical specimens is necessary for a reliable assessment of pCR. Machine learning (ML) algorithms have the potential to be a non-invasive way for identifying appropriate candidates for non-operative therapy. However, these ML models' interpretability remains challenging. We propose using explainable boosting machine (EBM) to predict the pCR of RC patients following nCRT.

Methods

A total of 296 features were extracted, including clinical parameters (CPs), dose-volume histogram (DVH) parameters from gross tumor volume (GTV) and organs-at-risk, and radiomics (R) and dosiomics (D) features from GTV. R and D features were subcategorized into shape (S), first-order (L1), second-order (L2), and higher-order (L3) local texture features. Multi-view analysis was employed to determine the best set of input feature categories. Boruta was used to select all-relevant features for each input dataset. ML models were trained on 180 cases from our institution, with 37 cases from RTOG 0822 clinical trial serving as the independent dataset for model validation. The performance of EBM in predicting pCR on the test dataset was evaluated using ROC AUC and compared with that of three state-of-the-art black-box models: extreme gradient boosting (XGB), random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM). The predictions of all black-box models were interpreted using Shapley additive explanations.

Results

The best input feature categories were CP+DVH+S+R_L1+R_L2 for all models, from which Boruta-selected features enabled the EBM, XGB, RF, and SVM models to attain the AUCs of 0.820, 0.828, 0.828, and 0.774, respectively. Although EBM did not achieve the best performance, it provided the best capability for identifying critical turning points in response scores at distinct feature values, revealing that the bladder with maximum dose >50 Gy, and the tumor with maximum2DDiameterColumn >80 mm, elongation <0.55, leastAxisLength >50 mm and lower variance of CT intensities were associated with unfavorable outcomes.

Conclusions

EBM has the potential to enhance the physician's ability to evaluate an ML-based prediction of pCR and has implications for selecting patients for a "watchful waiting" strategy to RC therapy.