1
|
Cai LQ, Yang DQ, Wang RJ, Huang H, Shi YX. Establishing and clinically validating a machine learning model for predicting unplanned reoperation risk in colorectal cancer. World J Gastroenterol 2024; 30:2991-3004. [PMID: 38946868 PMCID: PMC11212699 DOI: 10.3748/wjg.v30.i23.2991] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/25/2024] [Revised: 05/07/2024] [Accepted: 05/20/2024] [Indexed: 06/21/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer significantly impacts global health, with unplanned reoperations post-surgery being key determinants of patient outcomes. Existing predictive models for these reoperations lack precision in integrating complex clinical data.
AIM To develop and validate a machine learning model for predicting unplanned reoperation risk in colorectal cancer patients.
METHODS Data of patients treated for colorectal cancer (n = 2044) at the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University and Wenzhou Central Hospital from March 2020 to March 2022 were retrospectively collected. Patients were divided into an experimental group (n = 60) and a control group (n = 1984) according to unplanned reoperation occurrence. Patients were also divided into a training group and a validation group (7:3 ratio). We used three different machine learning methods to screen characteristic variables. A nomogram was created based on multifactor logistic regression, and the model performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and decision curve analysis. The risk scores of the two groups were calculated and compared to validate the model.
RESULTS More patients in the experimental group were ≥ 60 years old, male, and had a history of hypertension, laparotomy, and hypoproteinemia, compared to the control group. Multiple logistic regression analysis confirmed the following as independent risk factors for unplanned reoperation (P < 0.05): Prognostic Nutritional Index value, history of laparotomy, hypertension, or stroke, hypoproteinemia, age, tumor-node-metastasis staging, surgical time, gender, and American Society of Anesthesiologists classification. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the model had good discrimination and clinical utility.
CONCLUSION This study used a machine learning approach to build a model that accurately predicts the risk of postoperative unplanned reoperation in patients with colorectal cancer, which can improve treatment decisions and prognosis.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Li-Qun Cai
- Department of Colorectal and Anal Surgery, Whenzhou Central Hospital, Wenzhou 325000, Zhejiang Province, China
| | - Da-Qing Yang
- Department of Colorectal and Anal Surgery, Whenzhou Central Hospital, Wenzhou 325000, Zhejiang Province, China
| | - Rong-Jian Wang
- Department of Colorectal and Anal Surgery, Whenzhou Central Hospital, Wenzhou 325000, Zhejiang Province, China
| | - He Huang
- Department of Colorectal and Anal Surgery, Whenzhou Central Hospital, Wenzhou 325000, Zhejiang Province, China
| | - Yi-Xiong Shi
- Department of Colorectal and Anorectal Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou 325000, Zhejiang Province, China
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Hill HA, Jain P, Ok CY, Sasaki K, Chen H, Wang ML, Chen K. Integrative Prognostic Machine Learning Models in Mantle Cell Lymphoma. CANCER RESEARCH COMMUNICATIONS 2023; 3:1435-1446. [PMID: 37538987 PMCID: PMC10395375 DOI: 10.1158/2767-9764.crc-23-0083] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2023] [Revised: 04/17/2023] [Accepted: 06/27/2023] [Indexed: 08/05/2023]
Abstract
Patients with mantle cell lymphoma (MCL), an incurable B-cell malignancy, benefit from accurate pretreatment disease stratification. We curated an extensive database of 862 patients diagnosed between 2014 and 2022. A machine learning (ML) gradient-boosted model incorporated baseline features from clinicopathologic, cytogenetic, and genomic data with high predictive power discriminating between patients with indolent or responsive MCL and those with aggressive disease (AUC ROC = 0.83). In addition, we utilized the gradient-boosted framework as a robust feature selection method for multivariate logistic and survival modeling. The best ML models incorporated features from clinical and genomic data types highlighting the need for correlative molecular studies in precision oncology. As proof of concept, we launched our most accurate and practical models using an application interface, which has potential for clinical implementation. We designated the 20-feature ML model-based index the "integrative MIPI" or iMIPI and a similar 10-feature ML index the "integrative simplified MIPI" or iMIPI-s. The top 10 baseline prognostic features represented in the iMIPI-s are: lactase dehydrogenase (LDH), Ki-67%, platelet count, bone marrow involvement percentage, hemoglobin levels, the total number of observed somatic mutations, TP53 mutational status, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance level, beta-2 microglobulin, and morphology. Our findings emphasize that prognostic applications and indices should include molecular features, especially TP53 mutational status. This work demonstrates the clinical utility of complex ML models and provides further evidence for existing prognostic markers in MCL. Significance Our model is the first to integrate a dynamic algorithm with multiple clinical and molecular features, allowing for accurate predictions of MCL disease outcomes in a large patient cohort.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Holly A. Hill
- Department of Bioinformatics and Computational Biology, Division of Quantitative Sciences, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas
- Department of Lymphoma and Myeloma, Division of Cancer Medicine, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas
- Department of Epidemiology, Human Genetics and Environmental Sciences, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston School of Public Health, Houston, Texas
| | - Preetesh Jain
- Department of Lymphoma and Myeloma, Division of Cancer Medicine, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas
| | - Chi Young Ok
- Department of Hematopathology, Division of Pathology-Lab Medicine, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas
| | - Koji Sasaki
- Department of Leukemia, Division of Cancer Medicine, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas
| | - Han Chen
- Department of Epidemiology, Human Genetics and Environmental Sciences, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston School of Public Health, Houston, Texas
- Center for Precision Health, School of Biomedical Informatics, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, Texas
| | - Michael L. Wang
- Department of Lymphoma and Myeloma, Division of Cancer Medicine, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas
| | - Ken Chen
- Department of Bioinformatics and Computational Biology, Division of Quantitative Sciences, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Wang L, Wu X, Tian R, Ma H, Jiang Z, Zhao W, Cui G, Li M, Hu Q, Yu X, Xu W. MRI-based pre-Radiomics and delta-Radiomics models accurately predict the post-treatment response of rectal adenocarcinoma to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. Front Oncol 2023; 13:1133008. [PMID: 36925913 PMCID: PMC10013156 DOI: 10.3389/fonc.2023.1133008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/28/2022] [Accepted: 02/06/2023] [Indexed: 02/24/2023] Open
Abstract
Objectives To develop and validate magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based pre-Radiomics and delta-Radiomics models for predicting the treatment response of local advanced rectal cancer (LARC) to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT). Methods Between October 2017 and August 2022, 105 LARC NCRT-naïve patients were enrolled in this study. After careful evaluation, data for 84 patients that met the inclusion criteria were used to develop and validate the NCRT response models. All patients received NCRT, and the post-treatment response was evaluated by pathological assessment. We manual segmented the volume of tumors and 105 radiomics features were extracted from three-dimensional MRIs. Then, the eXtreme Gradient Boosting algorithm was implemented for evaluating and incorporating important tumor features. The predictive performance of MRI sequences and Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) for NCRT response were compared. Finally, the optimal pre-Radiomics and delta-Radiomics models were established respectively. The predictive performance of the radionics model was confirmed using 5-fold cross-validation, 10-fold cross-validation, leave-one-out validation, and independent validation. The predictive accuracy of the model was based on the area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). Results There was no significant difference in clinical factors between patients with good and poor reactions. Integrating different MRI modes and the SMOTE method improved the performance of the radiomics model. The pre-Radiomics model (train AUC: 0.93 ± 0.06; test AUC: 0.79) and delta-Radiomcis model (train AUC: 0.96 ± 0.03; test AUC: 0.83) all have high NCRT response prediction performance by LARC. Overall, the delta-Radiomics model was superior to the pre-Radiomics model. Conclusion MRI-based pre-Radiomics model and delta-Radiomics model all have good potential to predict the post-treatment response of LARC to NCRT. Delta-Radiomics analysis has a huge potential for clinical application in facilitating the provision of personalized therapy.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Likun Wang
- Tianjin's Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital, Tianjin, China.,Department of Molecular Imaging and Nuclear Medicine, National Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Key Laboratory of Cancer Prevention and Therapy, Tianjin, China.,Department of Ultrasound Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Hebei North University, Zhangjiakou, China
| | - Xueliang Wu
- Graduate School, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.,Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Tianjin Medical University Nankai Hospital, Tianjin, China
| | - Ruoxi Tian
- Department of Colorectal Surgery, National Cancer Center, National Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Hongqing Ma
- Department of General Surgery, The Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University, Shijiazhuang, China
| | - Zekun Jiang
- College of Computer Science, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Weixin Zhao
- College of Computer Science, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Guoqing Cui
- Medical Image Center, The First Affiliated Hospital of Hebei North University, Zhangjiakou, China
| | - Meng Li
- Graduate School, Hebei North University, Zhangjiakou, China
| | - Qinsheng Hu
- Department of Orthopedics, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
| | - Xiangyang Yu
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Tianjin Medical University Nankai Hospital, Tianjin, China
| | - Wengui Xu
- Tianjin's Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital, Tianjin, China
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Wang D, Lee SH, Geng H, Zhong H, Plastaras J, Wojcieszynski A, Caruana R, Xiao Y. Interpretable machine learning for predicting pathologic complete response in patients treated with chemoradiation therapy for rectal adenocarcinoma. Front Artif Intell 2022; 5:1059033. [PMID: 36568580 PMCID: PMC9771385 DOI: 10.3389/frai.2022.1059033] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/30/2022] [Accepted: 11/16/2022] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Purpose Pathologic complete response (pCR) is a critical factor in determining whether patients with rectal cancer (RC) should have surgery after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT). Currently, a pathologist's histological analysis of surgical specimens is necessary for a reliable assessment of pCR. Machine learning (ML) algorithms have the potential to be a non-invasive way for identifying appropriate candidates for non-operative therapy. However, these ML models' interpretability remains challenging. We propose using explainable boosting machine (EBM) to predict the pCR of RC patients following nCRT. Methods A total of 296 features were extracted, including clinical parameters (CPs), dose-volume histogram (DVH) parameters from gross tumor volume (GTV) and organs-at-risk, and radiomics (R) and dosiomics (D) features from GTV. R and D features were subcategorized into shape (S), first-order (L1), second-order (L2), and higher-order (L3) local texture features. Multi-view analysis was employed to determine the best set of input feature categories. Boruta was used to select all-relevant features for each input dataset. ML models were trained on 180 cases from our institution, with 37 cases from RTOG 0822 clinical trial serving as the independent dataset for model validation. The performance of EBM in predicting pCR on the test dataset was evaluated using ROC AUC and compared with that of three state-of-the-art black-box models: extreme gradient boosting (XGB), random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM). The predictions of all black-box models were interpreted using Shapley additive explanations. Results The best input feature categories were CP+DVH+S+R_L1+R_L2 for all models, from which Boruta-selected features enabled the EBM, XGB, RF, and SVM models to attain the AUCs of 0.820, 0.828, 0.828, and 0.774, respectively. Although EBM did not achieve the best performance, it provided the best capability for identifying critical turning points in response scores at distinct feature values, revealing that the bladder with maximum dose >50 Gy, and the tumor with maximum2DDiameterColumn >80 mm, elongation <0.55, leastAxisLength >50 mm and lower variance of CT intensities were associated with unfavorable outcomes. Conclusions EBM has the potential to enhance the physician's ability to evaluate an ML-based prediction of pCR and has implications for selecting patients for a "watchful waiting" strategy to RC therapy.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Du Wang
- Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, United States
| | - Sang Ho Lee
- Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, United States
| | - Huaizhi Geng
- Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, United States
| | - Haoyu Zhong
- Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, United States
| | - John Plastaras
- Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, United States
| | - Andrzej Wojcieszynski
- Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, United States
| | | | - Ying Xiao
- Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, United States
| |
Collapse
|