Development and validation of a nomogram to predict overall survival in young non-metastatic rectal cancer patients after curative resection: a population-based analysis

A nomogram and risk classification system forecasting the cancer-specific survival of lymph- node- positive rectal cancer patient after radical proctectomy

Background

The aim of the study was to develop and validate a nomogram for predicting cancer-specific survival (CSS) in lymph- node- positive rectal cancer patients after radical proctectomy.

Methods

In this study, we analyzed data collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2004 and 2015. In addition, in a 7:3 randomized design, all patients were split into two groups (development and validation cohorts). CSS predictors were selected via univariate and multivariate Cox regressions. The nomogram was constructed by analyzing univariate and multivariate predictors. The effectiveness of this nomogram was evaluated by concordance index (C-index), calibration plots, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Based on the total score of each patient in the development cohort in the nomogram, a risk stratification system was developed. In order to analyze the survival outcomes among different risk groups, Kaplan-Meier method was used.

Results

We selected 4,310 lymph- node- positive rectal cancer patients after radical proctectomy, including a development cohort (70%, 3,017) and a validation cohort (30%, 1,293). The nomogram correlation C-index for the development cohort and the validation cohort was 0.702 (95% CI, 0.687-0.717) and 0.690 (95% CI, 0.665-0.715), respectively. The calibration curves for 3- and 5-year CSS showed great concordance. The 3- and 5-year areas under the curve (AUC) of ROC curves in the development cohort were 0.758 and 0.740, respectively, and 0.735 and 0.730 in the validation cohort, respectively. Following the establishment of the nomogram, we also established a risk stratification system. According to their nomogram total points, patients were divided into three risk groups. There were significant differences between the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups (p< 0.05).

Conclusions

As a result of our research, we developed a highly discriminatory and accurate nomogram and associated risk classification system to predict CSS in lymph-node- positive rectal cancer patients after radical proctectomy. This model can help predict the prognosis of patients with lymph- node- positive rectal cancer.