Late arrhythmia recurrence after atrial fibrillation ablation: incidence, mechanisms and clinical implications

A review regarding the article 'Multidisciplinary management strategies for atrial fibrillation.'

Catheter ablation has become an accepted first line therapy for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF), with pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) being the key element of ablation strategies. Catheter ablation of AF has been proven to be superior to antiarrhythmic drug (AAD) therapy regarding efficacy and improvement of survival in patients with heart failure. PVI has become a routine treatment procedure in recent decades especially for patients with symptomatic PAF. Recent research investigations have shown that AF recurrence still occurs in a significant number of patients after ablation. AF recurrence leads to a decrease in patients' quality of life and is related to an increased risk of cardiovascular events and mortality. As most arrhythmia recurrences take place within the first 3 months after the initial procedure, this time period is seen as a so-called "blanking period", in which ablation is not recommended, since up to 50 % of patients can become arrhythmia free in the long run. Ablation therapy, however, is less successful in patients suffering from long standing persistent AF, with a 20.3 % success rate after a single procedure and a 45 % success rate after multiple RFA procedures. Several scores have been established and validated to predict cardiac rhythm outcomes after catheter ablation. However, due to the lack of external validation of most of the scores, their efficacy in predicting recurrence of atrial fibrillation needs to be further evaluated in independent external studies.

Plasma triglyceride is associated with the recurrence of atrial fibrillation after radiofrequency catheter ablation: A retrospective study

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study was to explore the association between triglycerides (TGs) and the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Included were adult patients with AF who underwent radiofrequency catheter ablation in the Affiliated Changzhou Second People's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University. The enrolled patients were divided into the AF recurrence group and the sinus rhythm (SR) maintenance group. The univariate Cox regression analysis and Kaplan-Meier survival curve were performed estimate the association between TG and the risk of AF recurrence. Of the 402 patients, 79 (19.7%) experienced recurrence of AF after ablation. The TG level was significantly higher in the AF recurrence group than in the SR-maintaining group. Patients were grouped by quartile of TG levels, with Quartile 1 and Quartile 2 defined as the low concentration group, Quartile 3 as the moderate concentration group, and Quartile 4 as the high concentration group. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the moderate concentration group (p = .02, hazard ratio [HR]: 2.331, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.141-4.762) and high concentration group (p = .007, HR: 2.873, 95% CI: 1.332-6.199) were associated with an increased risk of AF recurrence compared with the low concentration group. The median follow-up was 1.17 years, it is indicated that a higher risk of recurrent AF was observed in the moderate concentration and high concentration group (log-rank: χ2 = 7.540, p = .023).

CONCLUSION

Our data suggest that an elevated TG level measured before catheter ablation is associated with an increased risk of AF recurrence.

Prognostic value of cardiac deceleration capacity in patients with atrial fibrillation after catheter ablation: A systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Cather ablation (CA) is a well-recognized treatment alternative for atrial fibrillation (AF) patients despite more than 20% ablation-treated patients suffering from AF recurrence. The underlying mechanism of AF recurrence postablation is probably associated with high cardiac parasympathetic activity, which can be assessed with deceleration capacity (DC) of heart rate. Given that the relationship between DC and AF recurrence is still controversial, this systematic review and meta-analysis was performed to investigate the characteristics of DC in patients with and without AF recurrence, evaluating the prognostic value of DC in AF patients after CA.

METHODS

A literature search was systematically performed in the Embase, PubMed, Web of Science, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), and Wanfang databases until October 01, 2023. The observational studies reporting either the pre- and postablation DC in both recurrence and non-recurrence groups or the ratios based on DC for predicting AF recurrence were mainly included. Weighted mean differences (WMD) or odds ratios (OR) based on DC would be calculated with a random-effect model, if heterogeneity estimated with the I2 index and Q statistic was significant (I2 > 50% or p < .05); otherwise, a fixed-effect model would be utilized.

RESULTS

A total of eight observational studies involving 914 AF patients treated with radiofrequency or cryoballoon ablation were included in this study. Ablation-treated patients with AF recurrence had the higher DC postablation in relation to those without recurrence (WMD, 1.00; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.33-1.67; p < .01), which was present up to 3 months of follow-up (WMD, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.11-1.96; p < .01), whereas there was no statistical significance in DC before ablation between recurrence and non-recurrence groups (WMD, 0.34; 95% CI, -0.12 to 0.79; p = .15). The high DC postablation was a risk factor for AF recurrence in ablation-treated patients (OR, 2.17; 95% CI, 1.44-3.25; p < .01).

CONCLUSION

The high DC postablation was associated with the risk of AF recurrence, suggesting that DC may act as a prognostic indicator in AF patients treated with CA.

Obesity effect on newly diagnosed and recurrent post-ablation atrial fibrillation: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The role of overweight and obesity in the development of atrial fibrillation (AF) is well established; however, the differential effect on the occurrence and recurrence of AF remains uncertain. The aim of this review is to compare the effect of underweight and varying degrees of obesity on onset of AF and in recurrent post-ablation AF, and, when possible, in relation to sex.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted in PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library from inception to January 31, 2023. Studies reporting frequency of newly-diagnosed AF and of recurrent post-ablation AF in different BMI categories, were included. 3400 records were screened and 50 met the inclusion criteria. Standardized data search and abstraction were performed following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) Statement. Data were extracted from the manuscripts and were analyzed using a random effect model. The outcome was the occurrence of AF in population studies and in patients undergoing ablation.

RESULTS

Data from 50 studies were collected, of which 27 for newly-diagnosed AF and 23 for recurrent post-ablation AF, for a total of 15,134,939 patients, of which 15,115,181 in studies on newly-diagnosed AF and 19,758 in studies on recurrent post-ablation AF. Compared to normal weight, the increase in AF was significant (p < 0.01) for overweight, obese, and morbidly obese patients for newly-diagnosed AF, and for obese and morbidly obese patients for recurrent post-ablation AF. Newly-diagnosed AF was more frequent in obese female than obese male patients.

CONCLUSION

The effect of increased BMI was greater on the onset of AF, and obese women were more affected than men.

Analyses of lncRNA and mRNA profiles in recurrent atrial fibrillation after catheter ablation

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia worldwide. Catheter ablation has become a crucial treatment for AF. However, there is a possibility of atrial fibrillation recurrence after catheter ablation. Our study sought to elucidate the role of lncRNA‒mRNA regulatory networks in late AF recurrence after catheter ablation.

METHODS

We conducted RNA sequencing to profile the transcriptomes of 5 samples from the presence of recurrence after AF ablation (P-RAF) and 5 samples from the absence of recurrence after AF ablation (A-RAF). Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) and long noncoding RNAs (DE-lncRNAs) were analyzed using the DESeq2 R package. The functional correlations of the DEGs were assessed through Gene Ontology (GO) and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) analyses. A protein‒protein interaction (PPI) network was constructed using STRING and Cytoscape. We also established a lncRNA‒mRNA regulatory network between DE-lncRNAs and DEGs using BEDTools v2.1.2 software and the Pearson correlation coefficient method. To validate the high-throughput sequencing results of the hub genes, we conducted quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT‒PCR) experiments.

RESULTS

A total of 28,528 mRNAs and 42,333 lncRNAs were detected. A total of 96 DEGs and 203 DE-lncRNAs were identified between the two groups. GO analysis revealed that the DEGs were enriched in the biological processes (BPs) of "regulation of immune response" and "regulation of immune system process", the cellular components (CCs) of "extracellular matrix" and "cell‒cell junction", and the molecular functions (MFs) of "signaling adaptor activity" and "protein-macromolecule adaptor activity". According to the KEGG analysis, the DEGs were associated with the "PI3K-Akt signaling pathway" and "MAPK signaling pathway." Nine hub genes (MMP9, IGF2, FGFR1, HSPG2, GZMB, PEG10, GNLY, COL6A1, and KCNE3) were identified through the PPI network. lncRNA-TMEM51-AS1-201 was identified as a core regulator in the lncRNA‒mRNA regulatory network, suggesting its potential impact on the recurrence of AF after catheter ablation through the regulation of COL6A1, FGFR1, HSPG2, and IGF2.

CONCLUSIONS

The recurrence of atrial fibrillation after catheter ablation may be associated with immune responses and fibrosis, with the extracellular matrix playing a crucial role. TMEM51-AS1-201 has been identified as a potential key target for AF recurrence after catheter ablation.

A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Renin-angiotensin System Inhibitors and Angiotensin Receptor Neprilysin Inhibitors in Preventing Recurrence After Atrial Fibrillation Ablation

ABSTRACT

To systematically evaluate the efficacy and safety of renin-angiotensin system inhibitors (RASIs) and angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitors in preventing the recurrence of atrial fibrillation after atrial fibrillation ablation, we have written this meta-analysis. We systematically searched randomized controlled trials or cohort studies on RASIs and angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitor-sacubitril/valsartan (SV) in preventing the recurrence of atrial fibrillation. Two researchers independently screened the literature, extracted the data, and assessed the risk of bias in the included studies. Afterward, the meta-analysis was performed using RevMan 5.3 software. This meta-analysis results showed that the recurrence rate of atrial fibrillation after ablation in subjects using RASIs was lower than that in subjects not using them [relative risk = 0.85, 95% confidence interval (CI) (0.72-0.99), P = 0.03]; the recurrence rate in subjects using SV was lower than that in subjects using RASIs [RR= 0.50, 95% CI (0.37-0.68), P < 0.00001]. These results show that both the use of RASIs and SV can prevent the recurrence of after atrial fibrillation ablation, among which the use of SV is more effective.

Therapeutic advances in atrial fibrillation based on animal models

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most prevalent sustained cardiac arrhythmia among humans, with its incidence increasing significantly with age. Despite the high frequency of AF in clinical practice, its etiology and management remain elusive. To develop effective treatment strategies, it is imperative to comprehend the underlying mechanisms of AF; therefore, the establishment of animal models of AF is vital to explore its pathogenesis. While spontaneous AF is rare in most animal species, several large animal models, particularly those of pigs, dogs, and horses, have proven as invaluable in recent years in advancing our knowledge of AF pathogenesis and developing novel therapeutic options. This review aims to provide a comprehensive discussion of various animal models of AF, with an emphasis on the unique features of each model and its utility in AF research and treatment. The data summarized in this review provide valuable insights into the mechanisms of AF and can be used to evaluate the efficacy and safety of novel therapeutic interventions.

The role of epicardial fat radiomic profiles for atrial fibrillation identification and recurrence risk with coronary CT angiography

OBJECTIVES

Fat radiomic profile (FRP) was a promising imaging biomarker for identifying increased cardiac risk. We hypothesize FRP can be extended to fat regions around pulmonary veins (PV), left atrium (LA), and left atrial appendage (LAA) to investigate their usefulness in identifying atrial fibrillation (AF) and the risk of AF recurrence.

METHODS

We analysed 300 individuals and grouped patients according to the occurrence and types of AF. We used receiver operating characteristic and survival curves analyses to evaluate the value of imaging biomarkers, including fat attenuation index (FAI) and FRP, in distinguishing AF from sinus rhythm and predicting post-ablation recurrence.

RESULTS

FRPs from AF-relevant fat regions showed significant performance in distinguishing AF and non-AF with higher AUC values than FAI (peri-PV: FRP = 0.961 vs FAI = 0.579, peri-LA: FRP = 0.923 vs FAI = 0.575, peri-LAA: FRP = 0.900 vs FAI = 0.665). FRPs from peri-PV, peri-LA, and peri-LAA were able to differentiate persistent and paroxysmal AF with AUC values of 0.804, 0.819, and 0.694. FRP from these regions improved AF recurrence prediction with an AUC of 0.929, 0.732, and 0.794. Patients with FRP cut-off values of ≥0.16, 0.38, and 0.26 had a 7.22-, 5.15-, and 4.25-fold higher risk of post-procedure recurrence, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

FRP demonstrated potential in identifying AF, distinguishing AF types, and predicting AF recurrence risk after ablation. FRP from peri-PV fat depot exhibited a strong correlation with AF. Therefore, evaluating epicardial fat using FRP was a promising approach to enhance AF clinical management.

ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE

The role of epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) in AF had been confirmed, we focussed on the relationship between EAT around pulmonary arteries and LAA in AF which was still unknown. Meanwhile, we used the FRP to excavate more information of EAT in AF.

Predictive value of soluble suppression of tumorigenicity 2 in atrial fibrillation: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Purpose

Atrial fibrosis is the main pathological basis for the pathogenesis and progression of atrial fibrillation (AF). Soluble suppression of tumorigenicity 2 (sST2) is involved in fibrosis. Recent studies have explored its predictive value in AF outcomes. We performed this study to assess whether sST2 is an independent biomarker of AF outcomes and explore the potential mechanism.

Methods

PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library databases were searched systematically from inception through July 1, 2023, to identify relevant studies. Outcomes of interest included occurrence, recurrence, and major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) of AF. This meta-analysis was reported following the criteria outlined in PRISMA 2020, and the protocol was registered in PROSPERO (number: CRD42023459789). All statistical analyses were performed using the STATA version 16.

Result

Twenty four studies with 14,755 patients were included in the meta-analysis. The meta-analyses found that sST2 was significantly associated with the risk of occurrence [HR:1.04, 95% CI: 1.02-1.07, P < 0.01; I2 = 67.8%], recurrence [HR:1.09, 95% CI: 1.02-1.16, P < 0.01; I2 = 89.5%], and MACEs (HR:1.60, 95% CI: 1.13-2.27, P < 0.01; I2 = 82.0%) of AF. Furthermore, patients with AF showed higher sST2 than controls without AF (SMD: 0.41, 95% CI: 0.27-0.54, P < 0.01; I2 = 0%), and AF patients with recurrence after catheter ablation (CA) showed significantly higher sST2 than those without recurrence (SMD: 0.81, 95% CI: 0.33-1.28, P < 0.01; I2 = 83.9%). Sensitivity analyses showed that the outcomes were stable.

Conclusions

Higher sST2 was association with an increased risk of occurrence, recurrence, and MACEs of AF. Assessing sST2 can be used as a potential screening method to predict AF outcomes.

Systematic Review Registration

PROSPERO (CRD42023459789).

Impact of low-dose Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor (BDNF) on atrial fibrillation recurrence

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation is the most common arrhythmia worldwide and is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Despite the effectiveness of catheter-based ablation, periprocedural complication and recurrences remain a concern. In this context, we aim to appraise the potential impact of brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) on reducing episodes of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF).

METHODS

22 patients with an established diagnosis of PAF and without structural heart disease were considered. Every patient received 20 drops of GUNA-BDNF administered in the morning. During the 24 months of follow-up, the arrhythmic burden was measured by the average monthly duration of PAF episodes.

RESULTS

At the end of the follow-up period (24 months), data from 22 patients, of whom 17 men and five women, were analyzed. The arrhythmic burden, measured in terms of average monthly duration of PAF episodes, was found significantly reduced after the administration of low dose BDNF (9.5 vs. 65.3 minutes per month, P<0.001). A total of 17 out of 22 patients saw their arrhythmic burden eliminated or consistently reduced, furthermore two patients underwent a drastic reduction of the average monthly duration of AF (more than 200 minutes compared to the baseline). Only four patients, despite the administration of BDNF, still experienced an arrhythmic burden of 20 minutes or more. Considering the age groups, the major reduction was observed in people aged 70 or more, who were also the most represented in the sample. These results are coherent with the poor literature currently available.

CONCLUSIONS

BDNF low dose therapy has shown to have an impacting role in reducing the arrhythmic burden and recurrences of AF, with a particular effectiveness in patients over 70 and without structural heart disease. We should welcome this work, despite it limitations. Further clinical and molecular studies are needed before-considering BDNF low dose as a tool against PAF.

Concurrent percutaneous left atrial appendage occlusion and catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation: State-of-the-art review

Stroke prevention and symptom control are two integral pillars in atrial fibrillation (AF) management. Percutaneous left atrial appendage occlusion (LAAO) is effective at reducing stroke risk in high-risk patients with AF who cannot tolerate oral anticoagulant therapy, whilst catheter ablation is effective at reducing AF burden and improving quality-of-life in patients who remain symptomatic despite medical therapy. If both procedures are indicated in an individual patient, they have traditionally been performed on separate occasions, due to long cumulative procedural times, itself associated with thromboembolic risk. Recently, with the advancement of procedural techniques, the concept of concurrent LAAO and AF catheter ablation has gained traction. This review summarises the evidence for and against concurrent LAAO and AF catheter ablation, discussing procedural considerations, including procedural sequencing and post-procedural antithrombotic therapy, safety and efficacy outcomes, and future directions in the field.

Research progress on predicting atrial fibrillation recurrence after radiofrequency ablation based on electrocardiogram-related parameters

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia. It is associated with increased stroke risks, thromboembolism, and other complications, which are great life and economic burdens for patients. In recent years, with the maturity of percutaneous catheter radiofrequency ablation (RFA) technology, it has become a first-line therapy for AF. However, some patients still experience AF recurrence (AFR) after RFA, which can cause serious consequences. Therefore, it is critical to identify appropriate parameters that are predictive of prognosis and to be able to translate the parameters easily into the clinical setting. Here, we reviewed possible predicting indicators for AFR, focusing on all the electrocardiogram indicators, such as P wave duration, PR interval and so on. It may provide valuable information for guiding clinical works.

Cardiac magnetic resonance-guided cardiac ablation: a case series of an early experience

Radiofrequency (RF) catheter ablation has become a widely used therapeutic approach. However, long-term results in terms of arrhythmia recurrence are still suboptimal. Cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) could offer a valuable tool to overcome this limitation, with the possibility of targeting the arrhythmic substrate and evaluating the location, depth, and possible gaps of RF lesions. Moreover, real-time CMR-guided procedures offer a radiation-free approach with an evaluation of anatomical structures, substrates, RF lesions, and possible complications during a single procedure. The first steps in the field have been made with cavotricuspid isthmus ablation, showing similar procedural duration and success rate to standard fluoroscopy-guided procedures, while allowing visualization of anatomic structures and RF lesions. These promising results open the path for further studies in the context of more complex arrhythmias, like atrial fibrillation and ventricular tachycardias. Of note, setting up an interventional CMR (iCMR) centre requires safety and technical standards, mostly related to the need for CMR-compatible equipment and medical staff's educational training. For the cardiac imagers, it is fundamental to provide correct CMR sequences for catheter tracking and guide RF delivery. At the same time, the electrophysiologist needs a rapid interpretation of CMR images during the procedures. The aim of this paper is first to review the logistic and technical aspects of setting up an iCMR suite. Then, we will describe the experience in iCMR-guided flutter ablations of two European centres, Policlinico Casilino in Rome, Italy, and Haga Teaching Hospital in The Hague, the Netherlands.

Left atrial strain for predicting recurrence in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation after catheter ablation: a single-center two-dimensional speckle tracking retrospective study

Background

Although catheter ablation (CA) is an effective treatment for non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF), a good many of patients still have a recurrence following post-operation. Prediction of AF recurrence by evaluating left atrial (LA) phase function with speckle tracking echocardiography (STE) may be helpful for risk stratification and clinical management for AF patients. Therefore, the current study aimed to assess the prognostic value of LA strains in non-valvular AF patients after CA.

Methods

A total of 95 non-valvular AF patients (70.5% paroxysmal AF, 56.8% males, mean age 63.2 ± 9.7 years) were included in this retrospective study between October 2019 and August 2020. Transthoracic echocardiography was performed in all the subjects and STE was used to analyze the LA reservoir strain (LASr), LA conduit strain (LAScd) and LA contractile strain (LASct) during different phases before CA. Patients were followed up with until January 2022. The endpoint was AF recurrence.

Results

Over a median follow-up period of 26.0 months (interquartile range, 24.7–26.7 months), 26 patients experienced recurrence and 69 stayed in sinus rhythm. Compared with no-recurrence group, maximum volume of LA (LAVmax), minimum volume of LA (LAVmin) and LA volume index (LAVI) were increased in the recurrence group, while LAEF, LASr and LASct were worsened (P < 0.05). Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that LASct was an independent predictor of AF recurrence (odds ratio, 0.89; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.82–0.97; P = 0.007) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis showed an area under the curve of LASct<8% was 0.70 (95% CI, 0.59–0.79; P = 0.0008).

Conclusions

LASct was of independent predictive value of AF recurrence. LA function assessed by STE may contribute to the risk stratification for AF patients and selection of suitable patients for CA.

Left atrial appendage flow velocity predicts recurrence of atrial fibrillation after catheter ablation: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Purpose

There is increasing evidence that left atrial appendage flow velocity (LAAFV) is linked to the recurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF) after catheter ablation (CA), suggesting the potential predictable significance of LAAFV in this setting. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess whether LAAFV is association with AF recurrence after CA.

Methods

Up to May 1, 2022, six databases (PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Scopus, and CINAHL) were searched for literature reporting the association between LAAFV and AF recurrence after CA. All statistical analyses were carried out using STATA version 16 software. Heterogeneity was determined by the Cochrane’s Q test and I² statistics. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) was used to assess the methodological quality of each included study, and the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) method was adopted to evaluate the quality of evidence.

Result

Sixteen studies with 5,006 AF patients after CA (1,479 patients with AF recurrence, 3,527 without AF recurrence) were included in the meta-analysis. The meta-analysis of 15 studies (16 data sets) showed that patients with recurrence exhibited lower LAAFV values than those without recurrence [standardized mean difference (SMD): −0.65, 95% CI: −0.88 to −0.42, P < 0.01]. Moreover, we evaluated the association of LAAFV and the risk of AF recurrence after CA. Nine studies (11 data sets) defined LAAFV as continuous variables, and the pooled analysis suggested that for every 1 cm/s rise in LAAFV values, the risk of AF recurrence after CA decreased by 3% [Odds Ratio (OR): 0.97, 95% CI: 0.95 to 0.99, P < 0.01]. Seven studies defined LAAFV as categorical variables, and the pooled analysis showed that lower LAAFV were associated with an increased risk of AF recurrence after CA [OR: 2.28, 95% CI: 1.46 to 3.57, P < 0.01]. The subgroup analyses showed that the association between LAAFV and AF recurrence after CA was not significantly affected by the AF type and ablation procedure. The NOS indicated that included studies were moderate to high quality, while the GRADE assessment suggested a low certainty of the evidence.

Conclusion

Lower LAAFV may be associated with an increased risk of AF recurrence after CA. Further studies with well designed and randomized studies for LAAFV should be conducted.

Systematic review registration

[https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/], identifier [CRD42022333627].

Development and Validation of a Risk Nomogram Model for Predicting Recurrence in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation After Radiofrequency Catheter Ablation

Purpose

This study aimed to develop and validate a risk nomogram model for predicting the risk of atrial fibrillation recurrence after radiofrequency catheter ablation.

Patients and Methods

A retrospective observational study was conducted using data from 485 patients with atrial fibrillation who underwent the first radiofrequency ablation in our hospital from January 2018 to June 2021. All patients were randomized into training cohort (70%; n=340) and validation cohort (30%; n=145). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors. The predictive nomogram model was established by using R software. The nomogram was developed and evaluated based on differentiation, calibration, and clinical efficacy by concordance statistic (C-statistic), calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA), respectively.

Results

The nomogram was established by four variables including left atrial diameter (OR 1.057, 95% CI 1.010–1.107, P=0.018), left ventricular ejection fraction (OR 0.943, 95% CI 0.905–0.982, P=0.005), type of atrial fibrillation (OR 2.164, 95% CI: 1.262–3.714), and systemic inflammation score (OR 1.905, 95% CI 1.408–2.577). The C-statistic of the nomogram was 0.741 (95% CI: 0.689–0.794) in the training cohort and 0.750 (95% CI: 0.670–0.831) in the validation cohort. The calibration plots showed good agreement between the predictions and observations in the training and validation cohorts. Decision curve analysis and clinical impact curves indicated the clinical utility of the predictive nomogram.

Conclusion

The nomogram model has good discrimination and accuracy, which can screen high-risk groups intuitively and individually, and has a certain predictive value for atrial fibrillation recurrence in patients after radiofrequency ablation.