Tau polygenic risk scoring: a cost-effective aid for prognostic counseling in Alzheimer's disease

Machine Learning Models of Polygenic Risk for Enhanced Prediction of Alzheimer Disease Endophenotypes

Background and Objectives

Alzheimer disease (AD) has a polygenic architecture, for which genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have helped elucidate sequence variants (SVs) influencing susceptibility. Polygenic risk score (PRS) approaches show promise for generating summary measures of inherited risk for clinical AD based on the effects of APOE and other GWAS hits. However, existing PRS approaches, based on traditional regression models, explain only modest variation in AD dementia risk and AD-related endophenotypes. We hypothesized that machine learning (ML) models of polygenic risk (ML-PRS) could outperform standard regression-based PRS methods and therefore have the potential for greater clinical utility.

Methods

We analyzed combined data from the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging (n = 1,791) and the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (n = 864). An AD PRS was computed for each participant using the top common SVs obtained from a large AD dementia GWAS. In parallel, ML models were trained using those SV genotypes, with amyloid PET burden as the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes included amyloid PET positivity and clinical diagnosis (cognitively unimpaired vs impaired). We compared performance between ML-PRS and standard PRS across 100 training sessions with different data splits. In each session, data were split into 80% training and 20% testing, and then five-fold cross-validation was used within the training set to ensure the best model was produced for testing. We also applied permutation importance techniques to assess which genetic factors contributed most to outcome prediction.

Results

ML-PRS models outperformed the AD PRS (r2 = 0.28 vs r2 = 0.24 in test set) in explaining variation in amyloid PET burden. Among ML approaches, methods accounting for nonlinear genetic influences were superior to linear methods. ML-PRS models were also more accurate when predicting amyloid PET positivity (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.80 vs AUC = 0.63) and the presence of cognitive impairment (AUC = 0.75 vs AUC = 0.54) compared with the standard PRS.

Discussion

We found that ML-PRS approaches improved upon standard PRS for prediction of AD endophenotypes, partly related to improved accounting for nonlinear effects of genetic susceptibility alleles. Further adaptations of the ML-PRS framework could help to close the gap of remaining unexplained heritability for AD and therefore facilitate more accurate presymptomatic and early-stage risk stratification for clinical decision-making.

Genetic risk scores enhance the diagnostic value of plasma biomarkers of brain amyloidosis

Blood-based biomarkers offer strong potential to revolutionize diagnosis, trial enrolment and treatment monitoring in Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, further advances are needed before these biomarkers can achieve wider deployment beyond selective research studies and specialty memory clinics, including the development of frameworks for optimal interpretation of biomarker profiles. We hypothesized that integrating Alzheimer's disease genetic risk score (AD-GRS) data would enhance the diagnostic value of plasma AD biomarkers by better capturing extant disease heterogeneity. Analysing 962 individuals from a population-based sample, we observed that an AD-GRS was independently associated with amyloid PET levels (an early marker of AD pathophysiology) over and above APOE ε4 or plasma p-tau181, amyloid-β42/40, glial fibrillary acidic protein or neurofilament light chain. Among individuals with a high or moderately high plasma p-tau181, integrating AD-GRS data significantly improved classification accuracy of amyloid PET positivity, including the finding that the combination of a high AD-GRS and high plasma p-tau181 outperformed p-tau181 alone in classifying amyloid PET positivity (88% versus 68%; P = 0.001). A machine learning approach incorporating plasma biomarkers, demographics and the AD-GRS was highly accurate in predicting amyloid PET levels (90% training set; 89% test set) and Shapley value analyses (an explainer method based in cooperative game theory) indicated that the AD-GRS and plasma biomarkers had differential importance in explaining amyloid deposition across individuals. Polygenic risk for AD dementia appears to account for a unique portion of disease heterogeneity, which could non-invasively enhance the interpretation of blood-based AD biomarker profiles in the population.

Novel CYP1B1-RMDN2 Alzheimer's disease locus identified by genome-wide association analysis of cerebral tau deposition on PET

Determining the genetic architecture of Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathologies can enhance mechanistic understanding and inform precision medicine strategies. Here, we performed a genome-wide association study of cortical tau quantified by positron emission tomography in 3,136 participants from 12 independent studies. The CYP1B1-RMDN2 locus was associated with tau deposition. The most significant signal was at rs2113389, which explained 4.3% of the variation in cortical tau, while APOE4 rs429358 accounted for 3.6%. rs2113389 was associated with higher tau and faster cognitive decline. Additive effects, but no interactions, were observed between rs2113389 and diagnosis, APOE4 , and Aβ positivity. CYP1B1 expression was upregulated in AD. rs2113389 was associated with higher CYP1B1 expression and methylation levels. Mouse model studies provided additional functional evidence for a relationship between CYP1B1 and tau deposition but not Aβ. These results may provide insight into the genetic basis of cerebral tau and novel pathways for therapeutic development in AD.