Introduction of a nomogram for predicting adverse pregnancy outcomes based on maternal serum markers in the quad screen test

False-Positive Maternal Serum Screens in the Second Trimester as Markers of Placentally Mediated Complications Later in Pregnancy: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Multiple-marker, maternal serum screening (MSS) has been the cornerstone of prenatal diagnosis since the 1980s. While combinations of these markers are used to predict fetal risk of Down syndrome and other genetic conditions, there is some evidence that individual markers may also predict nongenetic pregnancy complications, particularly those related to placental dysfunction. The objective of this meta-analysis was to investigate the utility of false-positive, second-trimester MSS for Down syndrome as a marker of placentally mediated complications amongst singleton pregnancies globally.

METHODS

Electronic searches of PubMed, Medline, Embase, CINAHL, Web of Science, Scopus, and grey literature to 2019 were performed to identify observational studies comparing risk of pregnancy complications amongst pregnancies with false-positive MSS versus controls. A random-effects model of pooled odds ratios by outcome of interest (stillbirth, preeclampsia, fetal growth restriction, and preterm birth) and subgrouped by type of MSS test (double-, triple-, and quadruple-marker MSS) was used.

RESULTS

16 studies enrolling 68515 pregnancies were included. There were increased odds of preeclampsia (OR 1.28, 95% CI 1.09-1.51) and stillbirth (OR 2.46, 95% CI 1.94-3.12) amongst pregnancies with false-positive MSS. There was no significant association with preterm birth or growth restriction.

CONCLUSIONS

There is some evidence of an association between false-positive, second-trimester MSS for Down syndrome and increased odds of preeclampsia and stillbirth. Future large-scale prospective studies are still needed to best determine the predictive value of false-positive MSS as a marker of placentally mediated complications later in pregnancy and evaluate potential clinical interventions to reduce these risks.

Predictive value of quad serum markers for adverse pregnancy outcome in antiphospholipid antibody syndrome

PURPOSE

We investigated the validity of quad serum markers for the prediction of adverse pregnancy outcome (APO) in women with antiphospholipid antibody syndrome (APS).

METHODS

We included 75 women with APS delivered at our institution. APO was defined as stillbirth, small for gestational age (SGA), severe preeclampsia, or preterm delivery. First, we compared clinical characteristics between patients with or without composite APO. Second, we compared the rate of APO according to abnormal level of quad serum markers. Lastly, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed.

RESULTS

APS mothers with APO showed higher median α-fetoprotein (AFP) and inhibin A compared with those without APO. They were also associated with higher rates of positive risk of Down syndrome and neural tube defect. Elevated AFP, human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG), and inhibin A level was associated with higher rates of stillbirth, SGA, preterm delivery, and composite APO. ROC curve for prediction of stillbirth revealed an area under the curve of 0.835 for AFP, 0.781 for hCG, and 0.932 for inhibin A. For composite APO, the area under the ROC curve was 0.692 for AFP and 0.810 for inhibin A.

CONCLUSION

Elevated AFP, hCG, and inhibin A in women with APS demonstrated a high predictive value for APO, especially stillbirth.

Prediction of stillbirth: an umbrella review of evaluation of prognostic variables

BACKGROUND

Stillbirth accounts for over 2 million deaths a year worldwide and rates remains stubbornly high. Multivariable prediction models may be key to individualised monitoring, intervention or early birth in pregnancy to prevent stillbirth.

OBJECTIVES

To collate and evaluate systematic reviews of factors associated with stillbirth in order to identify variables relevant to prediction model development.

SEARCH STRATEGY

MEDLINE, Embase, DARE and Cochrane Library databases and reference lists were searched up to November 2019.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included systematic reviews of association of individual variables with stillbirth without language restriction.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Abstract screening and data extraction were conducted in duplicate. Methodological quality was assessed using AMSTAR and QUIPS criteria. The evidence supporting association with each variable was graded.

RESULTS

The search identified 1198 citations. Sixty-nine systematic reviews reporting 64 variables were included. The most frequently reported were maternal age (n = 5), body mass index (n = 6) and maternal diabetes (n = 5). Uterine artery Doppler appeared to have the best performance of any single test for stillbirth. The strongest evidence of association was for nulliparity and pre-existing hypertension.

CONCLUSION

We have identified variables relevant to the development of prediction models for stillbirth. Age, parity and prior adverse pregnancy outcomes had a more convincing association than the best performing tests, which were PAPP-A, PlGF and UtAD. The evidence was limited by high heterogeneity and lack of data on intervention bias.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

Review shows key predictors for use in developing models predicting stillbirth include age, prior pregnancy outcome and PAPP-A, PLGF and Uterine artery Doppler.

Is maternal serum inhibin A a good predictor in preterm labor? - Experience from a community hospital in Taiwan

Background

We aimed to determine whether inhibin A could be a reliable and accurate predictor of preterm birth, and discuss the possible pathogenic processes of inhibin A leading to preterm birth.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted on consecutive singleton pregnant women who underwent the second-trimester quad screen test at a gestational age of 15–20 weeks at Keelung Chang-Gung Memorial Hospital from March 2011 to May 2015. Data including maternal characteristics and pregnancy outcomes were collected from an electric medical record database. Data regarding pregnancy terminations before a gestational age of 24 weeks and regarding pregnancies that involved chromosomal or congenital anomalies were excluded from this analysis. One-way analysis of variance was used to compare second-trimester α-fetoprotein, human chorionic gonadotropin, unconjugated estriol, and inhibin A in women with preterm deliveries versus those with term deliveries.

Results

Although a total of 935 women with singleton pregnancies were enrolled, pregnancy outcome and complete maternal data were obtained from only 770 (82.3%)of them. In total, 687 (89.2%) women delivered at or after 37 weeks of gestation and 83 (10.8%) women delivered before 37 weeks of gestation. The results showed that the inhibin A level was significantly increased in the preterm labor group (p = 0.009). A cutoff inhibin A value above 2.25 was identified statistical significantly in the preterm labor group.

Conclusions

From our results, an inhibin A level above 2.25 multiples of the median in the quad screen test may be associated with preterm labor afterward. Closely monitoring for uterine contractions or cervical length measurement in the second trimester may be indicated in patients with unexplained elevated inhibin A levels.

A cohort study of the association between maternal serum Inhibin-A and adverse pregnancy outcomes: a population-based study

Background

To compare the rates of adverse pregnancy outcomes between women with normal and abnormal inhibin-A levels.

Methods

Based on a prospective database of Down syndrome screening program, the consecutive records were comprehensively reviewed. Pregnancies were classified into three groups: normal, high (> 2 MoM) and low (< 0.5 MoM) inhibin-A levels. The pregnancies with medical diseases, chromosome abnormalities and fetal anomalies were excluded. The primary outcomes were the rates of preterm birth, preeclampsia, and fetal growth restriction (FGR).

Results

Of 6679 recruited pregnancies, 5080 met the inclusion criteria, including 4600, 205 and 275 pregnancies in the group of normal, high, and low inhibin-A levels respectively. The rates of preterm birth, preeclampsia and FGR were significantly higher in the group of high levels; (RR, 1.51, 95%CI: 1.01–2.26; 3.47, 95% CI: 2.13–5.65; 3.04, 95% CI: 1.99–4.65 respectively), whereas the rates of other adverse outcomes were comparable. However, the rate of spontaneous preterm birth among women with high inhibin-A was not significantly increased. Based on multivariate analysis, the preterm birth rate was not significantly associated with inhibin-A levels, but it was rather a consequence of preeclampsia and FGR. Low levels of serum inhibin-A were not significantly associated with any adverse outcomes.

Conclusions

High levels of maternal serum inhibin-A in the second trimester are significantly associated with abnormal placentation, which increases the risk of preeclampsia and FGR with a consequence of indicated preterm birth but not a risk of spontaneous preterm birth. In contrast, low inhibin-A levels were not associated with any common adverse pregnancy outcomes.

Can stress biomarkers predict preterm birth in women with threatened preterm labor?

BACKGROUND

Preterm birth is a major paediatric challenge difficult to prevent and with major adverse outcomes. Prenatal stress plays an important role on preterm birth; however, there are few stress-related models to predict preterm birth in women with Threatened Preterm Labor (TPL).

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this work is to study the influence of stress biomarkers on time until birth in TPL women.

METHODS

Eligible participants were pregnant women between 24 and 31 gestational weeks admitted to the hospital with TPL diagnosis (n=166). Stress-related biomarkers (α-amylase and cortisol) were determined in saliva samples after TPL diagnosis. Participants were followed-up until labor. A parametric survival model was constructed based on α-amylase, cortisol), TPL gestational week, age, parity, and multiple pregnancy. The model was adjusted using a logistic distribution and it was implemented as a nomogram to predict the labor probability at 7- and 14-day term.

RESULTS

The time until labor was associated with cortisol (p=0.001), gestational week at TPL diagnosis (p=0.004), and age (p=0.02). Importantly, high cortisol levels at TPL diagnosis were predictive of latency to labor. Validation of the model yielded an optimum corrected AUC value of 0.63.

CONCLUSIONS

High cortisol levels at TPL diagnosis may have an important role in the preterm birth prediction. Our statistical model implemented as a nomogram provided accurate predictions of individual prognosis of pregnant women.

Is the ratio of maternal serum to amniotic fluid AFP superior to serum levels as a predictor of pregnancy complications?

PURPOSE

The use of maternal serum alpha fetoprotein (MSAFP) levels as a predictor of pregnancy complications (PC) is well established. We hypothesized that the ratio between the MSAFP/AFAFP levels (RATIO) will more accurately predict PC than MSAFP levels alone.

METHODS

Women who had a MSAFP test followed by amniocentesis were divided into two groups: those who had PC comprised the study group and those who had an uneventful pregnancy served as the control group. Data regarding pregnancy and delivery course were collected. The RATIO between the study and the control groups was compared.

RESULTS

166 women were included in the study, of which 24 had PC. A significant correlation was found between the RATIO and intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) and week of delivery. Six pregnancies had elevated MSAFP levels; two with RATIO below 2 had uneventful pregnancies. Among the other four pregnancies with RATIO above two, one had IUGR and the other, placental abruption.

CONCLUSION

Our data suggest that the RATIO might serve as a predictor of IUGR and week of delivery. Although the number of patients in the current study was relatively small, the novelty of the proposed simple marker implies that a larger scale study is warranted. Such studies may confirm this finding and a possible advantage of using this RATIO instead of or in addition to MSAFP values for better prediction of pregnancies at risk for PC.