Nomograms predicting prognosis for locally advanced hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma

Development and validation of a novel combinatorial nomogram model to predict in-hospital deaths in heart failure patients

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study was to develop a Nomogram model to identify the risk of all-cause mortality during hospitalization in patients with heart failure (HF).

METHODS

HF patients who had been registered in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) III and IV databases were included. The primary outcome was the occurrence of all-cause mortality during hospitalization. Two Logistic Regression models (LR1 and LR2) were developed to predict in-hospital death for HF patients from the MIMIC-IV database. The MIMIC-III database were used for model validation. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to compare the discrimination of each model. Calibration curve was used to assess the fit of each developed models. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to estimate the net benefit of the predictive model.

RESULTS

A total of 16,908 HF patients were finally enrolled through screening, of whom 2,283 (13.5%) presented with in-hospital death. Totally, 48 variables were included and analyzed in the univariate and multifactorial regression analysis. The AUCs for the LR1 and LR2 models in the test cohort were 0.751 (95% CI: 0.735∼0.767) and 0.766 (95% CI: 0.751-0.781), respectively. Both LR models performed well in the calibration curve and DCA process. Nomogram and online risk assessment system were used as visualization of predictive models.

CONCLUSION

A new risk prediction tool and an online risk assessment system were developed to predict mortality in HF patients, which performed well and might be used to guide clinical practice.

Risk factors and prognostic models of lymph node metastatic hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma

PURPOSE

To explore the risk factors for lymph node metastasis (LNM) and establish nomograms for predicting survival outcomes and assessing individual risk in patients with LNM and hypopharyngeal squamous carcinoma (HSCC).

METHODS

Clinical data of patients with HSCC were retrospectively reviewed. The study's primary endpoints were overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS). Nomograms were established based on Cox regression analyses. The accuracy and calibration ability of the nomograms were evaluated using the C-index, area under the curve, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis.

RESULTS

Overall, 2888 patients were enrolled, and the LNM rate was 74.2%. Age ≤ 60 years, male sex, unmarried status, pyriform sinus location, grade III-IV, tumor larger than 4 cm, and advanced T stage increased the risk of LNM. In addition, LNM was a negative prognostic factor for OS and DSS. Ten variables were identified and incorporated into nomograms to estimate OS and DSS. Our nomograms outperformed the traditional staging system in training and validation cohorts. Patients were stratified into risk subgroups based on the OS- and DSS-nomogram scores. Patients in the high-risk subgroup had a higher risk of death and disease-specific mortality than those in the low- and intermediate-risk subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

LNM worsens the prognosis of HSCC. This study identified the independent prognostic factors for HSCC with LNM and developed satisfactory OS- and DSS-monogram to provide individual prediction and risk classification for patients with this diagnosis.

A Survival Nomogram Containing Lymph Node Ratio for Hypopharyngeal Carcinoma Patients After Neck Dissection

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of our study is to establish a survival nomogram based on lymph node ratio (LNR) in hypopharyngeal carcinoma.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (HPSCC) is prone to regional metastasis. Emerging evidence has shown that LNR is a promising prognostic factor in HPSCC.

METHODS

From January 2004 to January 2018, 411 HPSCC patients who underwent neck dissection at our institution were retrospectively studied. The enrolled patients were divided into training and validation cohorts at a ratio of 7:3. A survival nomogram was finally built based on factors screened from multivariate analysis using the bidirectional stepwise method.

RESULTS

LNR was superior to other nodal classifications for survival prediction and was used to establish the R classification. A nomogram was developed using R classification (p < .001), pT classification (p < .001), tumor invasive depth (p < .001), and internal jugular vein adhesion (p = .001). The C-indexes were 0.712 and 0.703 in the training and validation dataset. The 36- and 60-month AUCs were 0.767 and 0.766 in the training dataset and 0.713 and 0.757 in the validation dataset, respectively. The calibration curves showed relatively good agreement between the predicted and actual probability.

CONCLUSION

Based on the LNR, we developed a survival nomogram for HPSCC after neck dissection, which will be a practical tool to discriminate patients with different survival risks.

Updated racial disparities in incidence, clinicopathological features and prognosis of hypopharyngeal squamous carcinoma in the United States

OBJECTIVE

This study was to determine the racial disparities in incidence, clinicopathological features and prognosis of hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (HPSCC) in the US.

METHODS

The National Program of Cancer Registries and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was used to determine racial disparity in age adjusted incidence rate (AAIR) of HPSCC and its temporal trend during 2004-2019. Using the separate SEER 17 database, we further evaluated racial disparity in clinicopathological features, and in prognosis using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

HPSCC accounted for 95.8% of all hypopharyngeal cancers and occurred much more frequently in males. Its incidence decreased in both male and females, in male non-Hispanic white (NHW), non-Hispanic black (NHB) and Hispanic as well as female NHW and NHB during the study period. NHB had the highest, whereas non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islanders (API) had comparable and the lowest incidence in both males and females. Among 6,172 HPSCC patients obtained from SEER 17 database, 80.6% were males and 83.9% were at the advanced stages III/IV. Five-year cancer specific and overall survival rates were 41.2% and 28.9%, respectively. NHB patients were more likely to be younger, unmarried, from the Southern region, larger sized tumor, and at the stage IV, but less likely to receive surgery. They also had higher proportions of dying from HPSCC and all causes. Multivariate analyses revealed that NHB with HPSCC at the locally advanced stage had both significantly worse cancer specific and overall survival compared with NHW, but not at early stage (I/II) or distant metastatic stage. Hispanic patients had significantly better prognosis than NHW at locally advanced and metastatic stages. NHW and API had comparable prognoses.

CONCLUSIONS

HPSCC displays continuously decreased incidence and racial disparity. The majority of the disease is diagnosed at the advanced stage. NHB have the highest burden of HPSCC and a worse prognosis. More studies are needed to curtail racial disparity and improve early detection.