Risk Factors, Prognosis, and a New Nomogram for Predicting Cancer-Specific Survival Among Lung Cancer Patients with Brain Metastasis: A Retrospective Study Based on SEER

Application of random survival forest to establish a nomogram combining clinlabomics-score and clinical data for predicting brain metastasis in primary lung cancer

PURPOSE

To establish a nomogram for predicting brain metastasis (BM) in primary lung cancer at 12, 18, and 24 months after initial diagnosis.

METHODS

In this study, we included 428 patients who were diagnosed with primary lung cancer at Harbin Medical University Cancer Hospital between January 2020 and January 2022. The endpoint event was BM. The patients were randomly categorized into two groups in a 7:3 ratio: training (n = 299) and validation (n = 129) sets. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator was utilized to analyze the laboratory test results in the training set. Furthermore, clinlabomics-score was determined using regression coefficients. Then, clinlabomics-score was combined with clinical data to construct a nomogram using random survival forest (RSF) and Cox multivariate regression. Then, various methods were used to evaluate the performance of the nomogram.

RESULTS

Five independent predictive factors (pathological type, diameter, lymph node metastasis, non-lymph node metastasis and clinlabomics-score) were used to construct the nomogram. In the validation set, the bootstrap C-index was 0.7672 (95% CI 0.7092-0.8037), 12-month AUC was 0.787 (95% CI 0.708-0.865), 18-month AUC was 0.809 (95% CI 0.735-0.884), and 24-month AUC was 0.858 (95% CI 0.792-0.924). In addition, the calibration curve, decision curve analysis and Kaplan-Meier curves revealed a good performance of the nomogram.

CONCLUSIONS

Finally, we constructed and validated a nomogram to predict BM risk in primary lung cancer. Our nomogram can identify patients at high risk of BM and provide a reference for clinical decision-making at different disease time points.

The Impact of Time Interval on Prognosis in Patients with Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Brain Metastases After Metastases Surgery

BACKGROUND

Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is a prominent malignancy often linked to the development of brain metastases (BM), which commonly appear at diverse time intervals (TI) following the lung cancer diagnosis. This study endeavors to determine the prognostic significance of the time interval in patients with NSCLC who undergo BM surgery. Through this investigation, we aim to improve our understanding of the factors impacting the prognosis of BM cases originating from NSCLC.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 74 patients (2011-2021) who underwent BM surgery at our institution. The relationship between various clinical, radiological, and histopathological factors, as well as TI and overall survival (OS), was examined.

RESULTS

The median TI from initial NSCLC diagnosis to BM surgery was 19 months (range: 9-36 months). Notably, a shorter TI of less than 23 months was found to be independently associated with postoperative survival (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.87, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-8.02, P = 0.045). Additionally, a shorter TI was independently correlated with the absence of adjuvant chemotherapy for NSCLC (aOR 0.25, 95% CI 0.07-0.83, P = 0.023) and lack of targeted therapy (aOR 0.02, 95% CI 0.00-0.16, P < 0.001). Late-onset BM (TI ≥ 36 months) was observed in 15 cases (20.3%), in this subgroup, patients aged 60 years or older at the time of lung cancer diagnosis exhibited a significant independent correlation with late-onset BM (aOR 7.24, 95% CI 1.59-32.95, P = 0.011). NSCLC patients who underwent adjuvant chemotherapy displayed a notable correlation with late-onset BM (aOR 6.46, 95% CI 1.52-27.43, P = 0.011), while those who received targeted therapy also exhibited an independent association (aOR 2.27, 95% CI 1.70-3.03, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Multiple factors contribute to the variability in the onset interval of BM subsequent to NSCLC diagnosis. The occurrence of BM within TI < 23 months following the initial diagnosis of NSCLC was demonstrated as an independent factor associated with an unfavorable prognosis following BM surgery. Furthermore, patients with NSCLC who did not receive adjuvant chemotherapy and lacked targeted therapy were shown to have an elevated likelihood of developing BM after a long progression-free survival.

Prognostic factors and survival prediction of resected non-small cell lung cancer with ipsilateral pulmonary metastases: a study based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database

BACKGROUND

Prognostic factors and survival outcomes of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with Ipsilateral pulmonary metastasis (IPM) are not well-defined. Thus, this study intended to identify the prognostic factors for these patients and construct a predictive nomogram model.

METHODS

One thousand, seven hundred thirty-two patients with IPM identified between 2000 to 2019 were from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Independent prognostic factors were identified using multivariate Cox regression analyses. Nomograms were constructed to predict the overall survival (OS), C-index, the area under the curve (AUC), and the calibration curve to determine the predictive accuracy and discrimination; the decision curve analysis was used to confirm the clinical utility.

RESULTS

Patients were randomly divided into training (n = 1213) and validation (n = 519) cohorts. In the training cohort, the multivariable analysis demonstrated that age, sex, primary tumor size, N status, number of regional lymph nodes removed, tumor grade, and chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors for IPM. We constructed a 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS prediction nomogram model using independent prognostic factors. The C-index of this model for OS prediction was 0.714 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.692 to 0.773) in the training cohort and 0.695 (95% CI, 0.660 to 0.730) in the validation cohort. Based on the AUC of the receiver operating characteristic analysis, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis, we concluded that the prognosis model of IPM exhibited excellent performance. Patients with total nomogram points greater than 96 were considered high-risk.

CONCLUSION

We constructed and internally validated a nomogram to predict 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS for NSCLC patients with IPM according to independent prognostic factors. This nomogram demonstrated good calibration, discrimination, clinical utility, and practical decision-making effects for the prognosis of NSCLC patients with IPM.

The development and validation of a nomogram for predicting brain metastases after chemotherapy and radiotherapy in male small cell lung cancer patients with stage III

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this research was to develop a model for brain metastasis (BM) in limited-stage small cell lung cancer (LS-SCLC) patients and to help in the early identification of high-risk patients and the selection of individualized therapies.

METHODS

Univariate and multivariate logic regression was applied to identify the independent risk factors of BM. A receiver operating curve (ROC) and nomogram for predicting the incidence of BM were then conducted based on the independent risk factors. The decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to assess the clinical benefit of prediction model.

RESULTS

Univariate regression analysis showed that the CCRT, RT dose, PNI, LLR, and dNLR were the significant factors for the incidence of BM. Multivariate analysis showed that CCRT, RT dose, and PNI were independent risk factors of BM and were included in the nomogram model. The ROC curves revealed the area under the ROC (AUC) of the model was 0.764 (95% CI, 0.658-0.869), which was much higher than individual variable alone. The calibration curve revealed favorable consistency between the observed probability and predicted probability for BM in LS-SCLC patients. Finally, the DCA demonstrated that the nomogram provides a satisfactory positive net benefit across the majority of threshold probabilities.

CONCLUSIONS

In general, we established and verified a nomogram model that combines clinical variables and nutritional index characteristics to predict the incidence of BM in male SCLC patients with stage III. Since the model has high reliability and clinical applicability, it can provide clinicians with theoretical guidance and treatment strategy making.

Risk factors and a new nomogram for predicting brain metastasis from lung cancer: a retrospective study

Objective

This study aims to establish and validate a new nomogram for predicting brain metastasis from lung cancer by integrating data.

Methods

266 patients diagnosed as lung cancer between 2016 and 2018 were collected from Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences. The first 70% of patients were designated as the primary cohort and the remaining patients were identified as the internal validation cohort. Univariate and multivariable logistics regression were applied to analyze the risk factors. Independent risk factors were used to construct nomogram. C-index was used to evaluate the prediction effect of nomogram.100 patients diagnosed as lung cancer between 2018 and 2019 were collected for external validation cohorts. The evaluation of nomogram was carried out through the distinction and calibration in the internal validation cohort and external validation cohort.

Results

166 patients were diagnosed with brain metastasis among the 266 patients. The gender, pathological type (PAT), leukocyte count (LCC) and Fibrinogen stage (FibS) were independent risk factors of brain metastasis. A novel nomogram has been developed in this study showed an effective discriminative ability to predict the probability of lung cancer patients with brain metastasis, the C-index was 0.811.

Conclusion

Our research provides a novel model that can be used for predicting brain metastasis of lung cancer patients, thus providing more credible evidence for clinical decision-making.

Slug Mediates MRP2 Expression in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Cells

Transcriptional factors, such as Snail, Slug, and Smuc, that cause epithelial-mesenchymal transition are thought to regulate the expression of Ezrin, Radixin, and Moesin (ERM proteins), which serve as anchors for efflux transporters on the plasma membrane surface. Our previous results using lung cancer clinical samples indicated a correlation between Slug and efflux transporter MRP2. In the current study, we aimed to evaluate the relationships between MRP2, ERM proteins, and Slug in lung cancer cells. HCC827 cells were transfected by Mock and Slug plasmid. Both mRNA expression levels and protein expression levels were measured. Then, the activity of MRP2 was evaluated using CDCF and SN-38 (MRP2 substrates). HCC827 cells transfected with the Slug plasmid showed significantly higher mRNA expression levels of MRP2 than the Mock-transfected cells. However, the mRNA expression levels of ERM proteins did not show a significant difference between Slug-transfected cells and Mock-transfected cells. Protein expression of MRP2 was increased in Slug-transfected cells. The uptake of both CDCF and SN-38 was significantly decreased after transfection with Slug. This change was abrogated by treatment with MK571, an MRP2 inhibitor. The viability of Slug-transfected cells, compared to Mock cells, significantly increased after incubation with SN-38. Thus, Slug may increase the mRNA and protein expression of MRP2 without regulation by ERM proteins in HCC827 cells, thereby enhancing MRP2 activity. Inhibition of Slug may reduce the efficacy of multidrug resistance in lung cancer.