Population stratification in Argentina strongly influences likelihood ratio estimates in paternity testing as revealed by a simulation-based approach

Evaluating DNA Mixtures with Contributors from Different Populations Using Probabilistic Genotyping

It is common practice to evaluate DNA profiling evidence with likelihood ratios using allele frequency estimates from a relevant population. When multiple populations may be relevant, a choice has to be made. For two-person mixtures without dropout, it has been reported that conservative estimates can be obtained by using the Person of Interest’s population with a θ value of 3%. More accurate estimates can be obtained by explicitly modelling different populations. One option is to present a minimum likelihood ratio across populations; another is to present a stratified likelihood ratio that incorporates a weighted average of likelihoods across multiple populations. For high template single source profiles, any difference between the methods is immaterial as far as conclusions are concerned. We revisit this issue in the context of potentially low-level and mixed samples where the contributors may originate from different populations and study likelihood ratio behaviour. We first present a method for evaluating DNA profiling evidence using probabilistic genotyping when the contributors may originate from different ethnic groups. In this method, likelihoods are weighted across a prior distribution that assigns sample donors to ethnic groups. The prior distribution can be constrained such that all sample donors are from the same ethnic group, or all permutations can be considered. A simulation study is used to determine the effect of either assumption on the likelihood ratio. The likelihood ratios are also compared to the minimum likelihood ratio across populations. We demonstrate that the common practise of taking a minimum likelihood ratio across populations is not always conservative when FST=0. Population stratification methods may also be non-conservative in some cases. When FST>0 is used in the likelihood ratio calculations, as is recommended, all compared approaches become conservative on average to varying degrees.

Phylogeographic and genome-wide investigations of Vietnam ethnic groups reveal signatures of complex historical demographic movements

The territory of present-day Vietnam was the cradle of one of the world’s earliest civilizations, and one of the first world regions to develop agriculture. We analyzed the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) complete control region of six ethnic groups and the mitogenomes from Vietnamese in The 1000 Genomes Project (1000G). Genome-wide data from 1000G (~55k SNPs) were also investigated to explore different demographic scenarios. All Vietnamese carry South East Asian (SEA) haplotypes, which show a moderate geographic and ethnic stratification, with the Mong constituting the most distinctive group. Two new mtDNA clades (M7b1a1f1 and F1f1) point to historical gene flow between the Vietnamese and other neighboring countries. Bayesian-based inferences indicate a time-deep and continuous population growth of Vietnamese, although with some exceptions. The dramatic population decrease experienced by the Cham 700 years ago (ya) fits well with the Nam tiến (“southern expansion”) southwards from their original heartland in the Red River Delta. Autosomal SNPs consistently point to important historical gene flow within mainland SEA, and add support to a main admixture event occurring between Chinese and a southern Asian ancestral composite (mainly represented by the Malay). This admixture event occurred ~800 ya, again coinciding with the Nam tiến.

Meta-Analysis of Mitochondrial DNA Variation in the Iberian Peninsula

The Iberian Peninsula has been the focus of attention of numerous studies dealing with mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation, most of them targeting the control region segment. In the present study we sequenced the control region of 3,024 Spanish individuals from areas where available data were still limited. We also compiled mtDNA haplotypes from the literature involving 4,588 sequences and 28 population groups or small regions. We meta-analyzed all these data in order to shed further light on patterns of geographic variation, taking advantage of the large sample size and geographic coverage, in contrast with the atomized sampling strategy of previous work. The results indicate that the main mtDNA haplogroups show primarily clinal geographic patterns across the Iberian geography, roughly along a North-South axis. Haplogroup HV0 (where haplogroup U is nested) is more prevalent in the Franco Cantabrian region, in good agreement with previous findings that identified this area as a climate refuge during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), prior to a subsequent demographic re-expansion towards Central Europe and the Mediterranean. Typical sub-Saharan and North African lineages are slightly more prevalent in South Iberia, although at low frequencies; this pattern has been shaped mainly by the transatlantic slave trade and the Arab invasion of the Iberian Peninsula. The results also indicate that summary statistics that aim to measure molecular variation, or AMOVA, have limited sensitivity to detect population substructure, in contrast to patterns revealed by phylogeographic analysis. Overall, the results suggest that mtDNA variation in Iberia is substantially stratified. These patterns might be relevant in biomedical studies given that stratification is a common cause of false positives in case-control mtDNA association studies, and should be also considered when weighting the DNA evidence in forensic casework, which is strongly dependent on haplotype frequencies.

Analysis of Y-chromosome STRs in Chile confirms an extensive introgression of European male lineages in urban populations

We analyzed the Y chromosome haplotypes (Yfiler) of 978 non-related Chilean males grouped in five sampling regions (Iquique, Santiago de Chile, Concepción, Temuco and Punta Arenas) covering main geo-political regions. Overall, 803 different haplotypes and 688 singletons were observed. Molecular diversity was moderately lower than in other neighboring countries (e.g. Argentina); and AMOVA analysis on Y-STR haplotypes showed that among variation within Chile accounted for only 0.25% of the total variation. Punta Arenas, in the southern cone, showed the lowest haplotype diversity, and discrimination capacity, and also the highest matching probability of the five Chilean samples, probably reflecting its more marked geographic isolation compared to the other regions. Multidimensional scaling (MDS) analysis based on RST genetic distances suggested a close proximity of Chilean Y-chromosome profiles to European ones. Consistently, haplogroups inferred from Y-STR profiles revealed that the Native American component constituted only 8% of all the haplotypes, and this component ranged from 5% in the Centre of the country to 9-10% in the South and 13% in the North, which is in good agreement with the distribution of Native American communities in these regions. AMOVA computed on inferred haplogroups confirmed the very low among variation observed in Chilean populations. The present project provides the first Chilean dataset to the international Y-chromosome STR Haplotype Reference Database (YHRD) and it is also the first reference database for Y-chromosome forensic casework of the country.

Ancestry analysis reveals a predominant Native American component with moderate European admixture in Bolivians

We have genotyped 46 Ancestry Informative Markers (AIMs) in two of the most populated areas in Bolivia, namely, La Paz (Andean region; n=105), and Chuquisaca (Sub-Andean region; n=73). Using different analytical tools, we inferred admixture proportions of these two American communities by comparing the genetic profiles with those publicly available from the CEPH (Centre d'Etude du Polymorphisme Humain) panel representing three main continental groups (Africa, Europe, and America). By way of simulations, we first evaluated the minimum sample size needed in order to obtain accurate estimates of ancestry proportions. The results indicated that sample sizes above 30 individuals could be large enough to estimate main continental ancestry proportions using the 46 AIMs panel. With the exception of a few individuals, the results also indicated that Bolivians showed a predominantly Native American ancestry with variable levels of European admixture. The proportions of ancestry were statistically different in La Paz and Chuquisaca: the Native American component was 86% and 77% (Mann-Whitney U-test: un-adjusted P-value=2.1×10(-5)), while the European ancestry was 13% and 21% (Mann-Whitney U-test: un-adjusted P-value=3.6×10(-5)), respectively. The African ancestry in Bolivians captured by the AIMs analyzed in the present study was below 2%. The inferred ancestry of Bolivians fits well with previous studies undertaken on haplotype data, indicating a major proportion of Native American lineages. The genetic differences observed in these two groups suggest that forensic genetic analysis should be better performed based on local databases built in the main Bolivian areas.

Evaluating methods to correct for population stratification when estimating paternity indexes

The statistical interpretation of the forensic genetic evidence requires the use of allelic frequency estimates in the reference population for the studied markers. Differences in the genetic make up of the populations can be reflected in statistically different allelic frequency distributions. One can easily figure out that collecting such information for any given population is not always possible. Therefore, alternative approaches are needed in these cases in order to compensate for the lack of information. A number of statistics have been proposed to control for population stratification in paternity testing and forensic casework, Fst correction being the only one recommended by the forensic community. In this study we aimed to evaluate the performance of Fst to correct for population stratification in forensics. By way of simulations, we first tested the dependence of Fst on the relative sizes of the sub-populations, and second, we measured the effect of the Fst corrections on the Paternity Index (PI) values compared to the ones obtained when using the local reference database. The results provide clear-cut evidence that (i) Fst values are strongly dependent on the sampling scheme, and therefore, for most situations it would be almost impossible to estimate real values of Fst; and (ii) Fst corrections might unfairly correct PI values for stratification, suggesting the use of local databases whenever possible to estimate the frequencies of genetic profiles and PI values.

The impact of modern migrations on present-day multi-ethnic Argentina as recorded on the mitochondrial DNA genome

BACKGROUND

The genetic background of Argentineans is a mosaic of different continental ancestries. From colonial to present times, the genetic contribution of Europeans and sub-Saharan Africans has superposed to or replaced the indigenous genetic 'stratum'. A sample of 384 individuals representing different Argentinean provinces was collected and genotyped for the first and the second mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) hypervariable regions, and selectively genotyped for mtDNA SNPs. This data was analyzed together with additional 440 profiles from rural and urban populations plus 304 from Native American Argentineans, all available from the literature. A worldwide database was used for phylogeographic inferences, inter-population comparisons, and admixture analysis. Samples identified as belonging to hg (hg) H2a5 were sequenced for the entire mtDNA genome.

RESULTS

Phylogenetic and admixture analyses indicate that only half of the Native American component in urban Argentineans might be attributed to the legacy of extinct ancestral Argentineans and that the Spanish genetic contribution is slightly higher than the Italian one. Entire H2a5 genomes linked these Argentinean mtDNAs to the Basque Country and improved the phylogeny of this Basque autochthonous clade. The fingerprint of African slaves in urban Argentinean mtDNAs was low and it can be phylogeographically attributed predominantly to western African. The European component is significantly more prevalent in the Buenos Aires province, the main gate of entrance for Atlantic immigration to Argentina, while the Native American component is larger in North and South Argentina. AMOVA, Principal Component Analysis and hgs/haplotype patterns in Argentina revealed an important level of genetic sub-structure in the country.

CONCLUSIONS

Studies aimed to compare mtDNA frequency profiles from different Argentinean geographical regions (e.g., forensic and case-control studies) should take into account the important genetic heterogeneity of the country in order to prevent false positive claims of association in disease studies or inadequate evaluation of forensic evidence.