Age estimation in children and young adolescents for forensic purposes using fourth cervical vertebra (C4)

Age estimation in infant and prenatal individuals through the metric development of the pars petrosa and squamosal portion of the temporal bone

This study proposes an assessment of the accuracy of the Fazekas and Kósa and Nagaoka methods by measuring the squamosal and petrous portions of the temporal bone, whose application in the Mediterranean population is not recommended. Therefore, our proposal is a new formula to estimate the age of skeletal remains from individuals at 5 months gestational age to 1.5 postnatal years with the temporal bone. The proposed equation was calculated on a Mediterranean sample identified from the cemetery of San José, Granada (n = 109). The mathematical model used is the exponential regression of the estimated age for each measure and sex, and both in combination, using an inverse calibration and cross-validation model. In addition, the estimation errors and the percentage of individuals within a 95% confidence interval were calculated. The lateral development of the skull, especially the growth of the length of the petrous portion, showed the greatest accuracy, while its counterpart, the width of the pars petrosa, showed the lowest accuracy, so its use is discouraged. The positive results from this paper should be useful in both forensic and bioarchaeological contexts.

Age Estimation in 0-8-Year-Old Children in France: Comparison of One Skeletal and Five Dental Methods

Age estimation in juveniles is a critical procedure in judicial cases for verification of imputability or for civil reasons when adopting children. Several methods based both on skeletal and dental growth have been performed and applied on different populations; nevertheless, few articles have compared different methods in order to test their reliability in different conditions and age ranges, and this is a clear obstacle in the creation of common guidelines for age estimation in the living. A comparison of five dental methods (Anderson, Ubelaker, Schour and Massler, Gustafson and Koch, Demirjian) and one skeletal method (Greulich a Pyle atlas) was performed on a population of 94 children aged between 0 and 8 years. Results showed that, whereas under 2 years all the methods have the same inaccuracy, over 2 years the diagram methods, such as Schour and Massler and Ubelaker's revised one, have a lower error range than the most frequently used Greulich and Pyle atlas and Demirjian method. Schour and Massler, Gustafson and Koch, and Ubelaker methods showed, respectively, a mean error amounting to 0.40, 0.53, and 0.56 years versus the 0.74 and 0.88 years given by Demirjian and the Greulich and Pyle atlas. An in-depth analysis of the potential of several methods is necessary in order to reach a higher adherence of age estimation with the complexity of growth dynamics.

Comparison of racemization rates between vital and endodontically treated teeth for age estimation

Amino acid racemization of dentin (AAR) is among the most precise methods for age estimation in unidentified adult cadavers. Although vital teeth are generally used for this technique, cases often have endodontically treated (Endo) teeth only. Therefore, the aim of this preliminary pilot study was to determine the applicability of Endo teeth by comparing AAR rates between vital and Endo teeth. Thirty-six dentin samples from vital teeth and 18 dentin samples from Endo teeth were analyzed, including the maxillary first premolar, maxillary second molar, and mandibular second premolar. Standard calibration curves for the mandibular second premolar and maxillary second molar were compared among vital teeth, Endo teeth, and mixed vital/Endo teeth. Discrepancies between estimated and actual ages were assessed by analyzing the AAR rates for the maxillary first premolar between vital and Endo teeth. The AAR rates for Endo teeth were higher than those for vital teeth in both the mandibular second premolar and maxillary second molar, and the correlation of the standard calibration curve for vital teeth only was highest (r = 0.982836; r = 0.92011467), followed by mixed (r = 0.949579; r = 0.76158) and Endo teeth only (r = 0.896082; r = 0.744991). In the maxillary first premolar, discrepancies were more than 10 years for all 5 Endo teeth, based on the standard calibration curve of vital teeth. The present study suggests that the AAR rates for Endo teeth might be affected by variation in dentin structure between vital and Endo teeth.

Deep focus approach for accurate bone age estimation from lateral cephalogram

Background/purpose

Bone age is a useful indicator of children's growth and development. Recently, the rapid development of deep-learning technique has shown promising results in estimating bone age. This study aimed to devise a deep-learning approach for accurate bone-age estimation by focusing on the cervical vertebrae on lateral cephalograms of growing children using image segmentation.

Materials and methods

We included 900 participants, aged 4-18 years, who underwent lateral cephalogram and hand-wrist radiograph on the same day. First, cervical vertebrae segmentation was performed from the lateral cephalogram using DeepLabv3+ architecture. Second, after extracting the region of interest from the segmented image for preprocessing, bone age was estimated through transfer learning using a regression model based on Inception-ResNet-v2 architecture. The dataset was divided into train:test sets in a ratio of 4:1; five-fold cross-validation was performed at each step.

Results

The segmentation model possessed average accuracy, intersection over union, and mean boundary F1 scores of 0.956, 0.913, and 0.895, respectively, for the segmentation of cervical vertebrae from lateral cephalogram. The regression model for estimating bone age from segmented cervical vertebrae images yielded average mean absolute error and root mean squared error values of 0.300 and 0.390 years, respectively. The coefficient of determination of the proposed method for the actual and estimated bone age was 0.983. Our method visualized important regions on cervical vertebral images to make a prediction using the gradient-weighted regression activation map technique.

Conclusion

Results showed that our proposed method can estimate bone age by lateral cephalogram with sufficiently high accuracy.

Evaluation of the compatibility of C2, C3, and C4 fractal dimension values with hand-wrist and cervical vertebra maturation methods in determining skeletal maturation

OBJECTIVES

To examine the correlation between the fractal dimension (FD) values of cervical vertebrae (C2, C3, and C4) and hand-wrist maturation (HWM) and cervical vertebra maturation (CVM) methods. In addition, the correlation between the pubertal growth spurt (PGS) and FD values was examined.

METHODS

The lateral cephalometric and hand-wrist radiographs of 120 subjects (61 females and 59 males) aged 8-18 years with a mean age of 13 years, were evaluated retrospectively. The CVM stages were determined in accordance with Hassel-Farman's modification of Lamparski criteria. The HWM stages were determined in accordance with Björk and Grave-Brown criteria. Both HWM and CVM stages were divided into two according to PGS. Fractal analysis of cervical vertebrae was performed according to the White-Rudolph method. The relationships between HWM stages, CVM stages and other variables were evaluated by Spearman's rank-order correlation coefficient. The relationships between FD values, chronological age, and divided stages were evaluated by the Pearson correlation coefficient. The Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare the FD values of two divided stages.

RESULTS

There were positive and statistically significant positive correlations between chronological age and both HWM and CVM stages. There was a positive and statistically significant correlation between CVM and HWM stages. In females and total, there were negative and statistically significant correlations between C4 FD values and divided HWM stages, and the differences between C4 FD values of divided HWM stages were also statistically significant. In total, there was a negative and statistically significant correlation between C4 FD values and divided CVM stages, and the difference between C4 FD values of divided CVM stages was also statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

The negative correlations found between C4 FD values and divided HWM and CVM stages suggest the fractal analysis of cervical vertebrae, especially of C4, may be used as an objective tool for evaluating the PGS.

Use of Advanced Artificial Intelligence in Forensic Medicine, Forensic Anthropology and Clinical Anatomy

Three-dimensional convolutional neural networks (3D CNN) of artificial intelligence (AI) are potent in image processing and recognition using deep learning to perform generative and descriptive tasks. Compared to its predecessor, the advantage of CNN is that it automatically detects the important features without any human supervision. 3D CNN is used to extract features in three dimensions where input is a 3D volume or a sequence of 2D pictures, e.g., slices in a cone-beam computer tomography scan (CBCT). The main aim was to bridge interdisciplinary cooperation between forensic medical experts and deep learning engineers, emphasizing activating clinical forensic experts in the field with possibly basic knowledge of advanced artificial intelligence techniques with interest in its implementation in their efforts to advance forensic research further. This paper introduces a novel workflow of 3D CNN analysis of full-head CBCT scans. Authors explore the current and design customized 3D CNN application methods for particular forensic research in five perspectives: (1) sex determination, (2) biological age estimation, (3) 3D cephalometric landmark annotation, (4) growth vectors prediction, (5) facial soft-tissue estimation from the skull and vice versa. In conclusion, 3D CNN application can be a watershed moment in forensic medicine, leading to unprecedented improvement of forensic analysis workflows based on 3D neural networks.

Discriminatory ability of cervical vertebral maturation stages in predicting attainment of the legal age threshold of 14 years: A pilot study using lateral cephalograms

Purpose

In India, the age of 14 years is the legal age threshold for child labour. Therefore, in suspected instances of child labour, age assessment plays a crucial role in determining whether a violation of the law on the employment of children has occurred. The aim of this retrospective cross-sectional study was to assess the discriminatory ability of stages of cervical vertebral maturation (CVM) in predicting the legal age threshold of 14 years.

Materials and Methods

Routinely taken lateral cephalograms from 408 subjects aged 10 to 18 years were evaluated retrospectively using the CVM stages described by Baccetti et al. Descriptive statistics, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and likelihood ratios were calculated for stages 2, 3, and 4 of CVM.

Results

Real age increased as the CVM stage gradually increased. The results of 2×2 contingency tables showed that CVM stage 4 produced an accuracy of 71% and 73%, a false positive rate of 7% and 18%, and a post-test probability of 59% and 68% for boys and girls, respectively.

Conclusion

Based on these findings, it can be concluded that the stages of CVM are of limited use for predicting the attainment of the legal age threshold of 14 years. Future studies should investigate whether combinations of skeletal and dental methods could achieve better accuracy and post-test probability.

Validation of the third molar maturity index cut-off value of <0.08 for indicating legal age of 18 years in Eastern Chinese region

Having a reliable, inexpensive and simple method to estimate 18 years of age would be of help in the forensic field. This study aimed to test the accuracy of the third molar maturity index (I_3M) in indicating the legal adult age of 18 years. This retrospective cross-sectional study analysed 450 digital panoramic images of Eastern Chinese children and young adults (226 females and 224 males) aged between 14 and 22 years. A cut-off value of I_3M < 0.08 was tested in discriminating adults from minors for both sex. For females, the sensitivity of the test (Se) was 75.0%, with a 95% confidence interval (95%CI) of 67.5% to 82.5%. The specificity of the test (Sp) was 100%. The proportion accurately classified (Ac) individuals was 85.8% (95%CI, 81.3% to 90.4%). The Bayes post-test probability was 100% (93.6% to 100%). For males, Se, Sp and Ac were 91.9% (95%CI, 87.1% to 96.7%), 92.0%(95%CI, 86.7% to 97.3%) and 92% (95%CI, 88.4% to 95.5%), respectively. The Bayes post-test probabilities was 92% (95%CI, 88.4% to 95.5%). Males were ahead in the development of third molars comparing to females according to I_3M. A stepwise logistic regression analysis showed that both I_3M and sex contribute to the regression model to discriminate adults (≥18 years) from minors (<18 years), while a receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis indicated some better accuracy of I_3M < 0.12 in females, without statistically significant difference when compared to I_3M < 0.08. The results of this study show that the cut-off value of I_3M < 0.08 may help to discriminate Eastern Chinese adults from minors. However, further study should evaluate the usefulness and possible variability of I_3M cut-off value in a specific population before used for legal and forensic procedures.

Forensic age estimation of 85 male child laborers and 31 rescued female commercial sex workers from Hyderabad in South India

Age estimation in living individuals has attained importance in forensic sciences from legal proceedings and has been a frequent request from concerned authorities to ascertain whether the person in question has reached the age of imputability and legal responsibility. The purpose of age estimation is not just limited to juvenile or sub-adult delinquents but also required in situations like a violation of child rights such as child employment, commercial sexual exploitation involving minor girls. Indian Law strictly forbids any employment of the children under the age of 14 and sexual exploitation of minor girls (<18 years). In this study, we assessed the skeletal and dental ages and correlate to reported chronological ages in a sample of 85 male child labourers and 31 female commercial sex workers. Statistical analysis of the results was performed to verify the similarities or differences between reported and biological age. The results had revealed a statistically significant difference between the reported age, skeletal, dental, and calculated biologic age (p < 0.05). The results indicate the need to establish a more reliable method for determining the biological age in an age-specific population.

Age Prediction Based on Brain MRI Image: A Survey

Human age prediction is an interesting and applicable issue in different fields. It can be based on various criteria such as face image, DNA methylation, chest plate radiographs, knee radiographs, dental images and etc. Most of the age prediction researches have mainly been based on images. Since the image processing and Machine Learning (ML) techniques have grown up, the investigations were led to use them in age prediction problem. The implementations would be used in different fields, especially in medical applications. Brain Age Estimation (BAE) has attracted more attention in recent years and it would be so helpful in early diagnosis of some neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer, Parkinson, Huntington, etc. BAE is performed on Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) images to compute the brain ages. Studies based on brain MRI shows that there is a relation between accelerated aging and accelerated brain atrophy. This refers to the effects of neurodegenerative diseases on brain structure while making the whole of it older. This paper reviews and summarizes the main approaches for age prediction based on brain MRI images including preprocessing methods, useful tools used in different research works and the estimation algorithms. We categorize the BAE methods based on two factors, first the way of processing MRI images, which includes pixel-based, surface-based, or voxel-based methods and second, the generation of ML algorithms that includes traditional or Deep Learning (DL) methods. The modern techniques as DL methods help MRI based age prediction to get results that are more accurate. In recent years, more precise and statistical ML approaches have been utilized with the help of related tools for simplifying computations and getting accurate results. Pros and cons of each research and the challenges in each work are expressed and some guidelines and deliberations for future research are suggested.

Dental age estimation using four Demirjian's, Chaillet's and Willems' methods in Kosovar children

BACKGROUND

Tooth formation was recognized as useful body system to assess maturity and predict age. Tooth mineralization is much less affected by the endocrine and different nutritional status than bone mineralization, and teeth formation provides a more reliable indication of chronological age. Demirjian et al. in 1973 presented a scoring system and method for dental age estimation on a sample of French-Canadian children. Chaillet et al. and Willems et al. modified original Demirjian method. This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of four Demirjian's, Chaillet and Willems methods for age estimation in the children of Kosovo.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The cross-sectional study was based on the evaluation of the sample of 1022 orthopantomograms (OPTs) of healthy Kosovar children, aged between 5 and 14 years. OPTs were taken from the Radiology unit of University Dentistry Clinical Center of Kosova, as part of random clinical treatment. We tested the accuracy of four methods based on seven mandibular teeth, Demirjian from 1973 (Dem73) and 1976 (Dem76), Chaillet from 2005 (Chaillet) and Willems from 2001 (Willems) and two Demirjian's methods based on different sets of four teeth (Dem76PM1 and Dem76IN2).

RESULTS

For most tested methods, we found statistically significant differences between the chronological age (CA) and dental age (DA) (p < 0.05). In males, the most accurate method were those using four teeth, Dem76IN2 (0.03 years) following by Dem76PM1 (-0.05 years), following those using seven teeth, Willems (-0.14 years), Chaillet (-0.24 years) and Dem73 (0.43 years). In females, dental age was the most accurate for the Willems method (-0.24 years) following Chaillet (-0.35 years), Dem76 (0.43 years) and Dem73 (0.55 years), while Dem76PM1 and Dem76IN2 overestimated by 0.45 years and 0.46 years, respectively. The mean absolute difference between DA and CA were between 0.61 years for the Willems, to 0.78 years for the Dem73 in males, and 0.64 years for the Willems to 0.75 years for the Dem76IN2 in females.

CONCLUSION

The Willems method was the most accurate for estimating a dental age if all seven mandibular teeth are available for analysis, and we found the similar accuracy of Dem76PM1 and Dem76IN2 methods. Therefore, we may encourage their use for age estimation on the Kosovar children.

The third molar maturity index in indicating the legal adult age in Kosovar population

The third molar tooth, known as the "wisdom tooth," is the only tooth that can be used to determine legal adult age. This study aimed to test the accuracy of Cameriere's third molar maturity index (I_3M) in assessing the legal adult age of 18 years in the Kosovar population. Orthopantomographs (OPTs) of 1221 healthy living Kosovar individuals, aged between 12 and 23 years and with no congenital or developmental anomalies, were analyzed. Intra-class correlation coefficients were 0.858 (95% CI, 0.786 to 0.906) and 0.852 (95% CI, 0.779 to 0.903) for intra-rater and for inter-rater agreement, respectively. The sample was divided into training dataset (800 OPTs) and test dataset (421 OPTs). The training dataset was used to generate the logistic regression model, while the test dataset was used to study the performance of the model. I_3M and gender as independent variables and adult age (≥ 18 years) or minor age (< 18 years) as the dependent variable were used for logistic regression analysis. The receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis was used to determine the specific cut-off value of I_3M for predicting adult age. The results showed that only I_3M statistically significantly contributed to discriminating adults and minors. ROC analysis showed that the cut-off value of I_3M < 0.08 was the best in discriminating adults and minors. An analysis of the test dataset (421 OPTs) showed that as I_3M decreased the age gradually increased. The performance of the cut-off value of I_3M < 0.08, to discriminate between adults and minors, was analyzed by contingency tables for both sexes. In males, the accurate classification (Acc) was 0.968 (95% CI, 0.926 to 0.985), the sensitivity (Se) was 0.962 (95% CI, 0.925 to 0.978), and the specificity (Sp) was 0.976 (95% CI, 0.929 to 0.995). The Bayes post-test probability (Bayes PTP) was 0.975 (95% CI, 0.905 to 1.00). In females, Acc was 0.909 (95% CI, 0.870 to 0.917), Se and Sp were 0.826 (95% CI, 0.787 to 0.834) and 0.991 (95% CI, 0.953 to 1.00) respectively, while Bayes PTP was 0.989 (95% CI, 0.926 to 1.00). Our data support the usefulness of I_3M < 0.08 to indicate legal adult age in a Kosovar population.

Are cervical vertebrae suitable for age estimation?

BACKGROUND

The ability of cervical vertebrae (CV) staging to contribute in forensic age estimation is being discussed controversially. The large variability of CV geometries in the end stage of development might be the reason for not reaching a performance competitive to hand or third molar methods. Here we study the geometry of adult CV and demonstrate that the description of their "typical" appearance is often not met.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Lateral cephalograms from clinical routine of 320 subjects aged 20 years or above (median 24 years, 52% female) were evaluated. The criteria for the end stage of CV development (Hassel-Farman, Baccetti) were examined by assessing them in terms of metric measurements: (1) rectangular shape of C3/C4, (2) at least one of the height-width ratios of C3/C4 > 1 (both not <1), (3) significant concavities at the inferior margin of C2, C3 and C4. Metric data of the adults were also compared to those of 100 children aged 8-10 years (50% female).

RESULTS

Adult CV often violated the criteria of rectangular shape (44% C3, 36% C4), of height-width ratio (16% C3, 35% C4) and inferior concavity (10% C2, 10% C3, 19% C4). All of the criteria for adult CV were fulfilled in only 24% of the subjects (95%CI 19-28%). The variability of measures of the CV shapes was large; e.g., the 95% reference ranges for the height-width ratios were 0.81-1.19 (C3) and 0.77-1.14 (C4). There was a material overlap of ranges of CV measures of adults and children.

CONCLUSION

While hand bones and teeth have well-defined appearances in the end stage of development, adult CV have a large biological variance of shapes; it is hard to define their "typical" appearance. Moreover, measures of CV geometry do not strictly separate adults from children. These facts might reason the limited usefulness of CV in age estimation.

Five radiographic methods for assessing skeletal maturity in a Spanish population: is there a correlation?

OBJECTIVES

The need for accurate techniques of estimating age has sharply increased in line with the rise in illegal migration and the political, economic and socio-demographic problems that this poses in developed countries today. The methods routinely employed for determining chronological age are mainly based on determining skeletal maturation using radiological techniques. The objective of this study was to correlate five different methods for assessing skeletal maturation.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

606 radiographs of growing patients were analyzed, and each patient was classified according to two cervical vertebral-based methods, two hand-wrist-based methods and one tooth-based method. Spearman's rank-order correlation coefficient was applied to assess the relationship between chronological age and the five methods of assessing maturation, as well as correlations between the five methods (p < 0.05).

RESULTS

Spearman's rank correlation coefficients for chronological age and cervical vertebral maturation stage using both methods were 0.656/0.693 (p < 0.001), respectively, for males. For females, the correlation was stronger for both methods. The correlation coefficients for chronological age against the two hand-wrist assessment methods were statistically significant only for Fishman's method, 0.722 (p < 0.001) and 0.839 (p < 0.001), respectively for males and females.

CONCLUSIONS

The cervical vertebral, hand-wrist and dental maturation methods of assessment were all found to correlate strongly with each other, irrespective of gender, except for Grave and Brown's method. The results found the strongest correlation between the second molars and females, and the second premolar and males.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE

This study sheds light on and correlates with the five radiographic methods most commonly used for assessing skeletal maturation in a Spanish population in southern Europe.

Bone age estimation based on multislice computed tomography study of the scapula

Progress in medical imaging has opened new areas of research in forensic anthropology, especially in the context of the study of bone age assessment. The study of bone age has become a useful tool for age estimation at death or age of young adult migrants in an anthropological context. We retrospectively evaluated multislice computed tomography (MSCT) explorations focused on scapulae of 232 individuals (123 males; 109 females) aged between 8 and 30 years old. Computed tomography (CT) scans were viewed in axial and multiplanar reconstructed images using OsiriX 5.9 (64 bit)®. The ossification centers of the scapula studied were as follows: acromial, sub-coracoid, glenoid, coracoid, coracoid apex, and inferior angle epiphyses. Fusion status was scored based on a five-stage system (stage 1: no ossification, stage 2: visualization of an ossification center, stage 3: partial ossification, stage 4: full ossification associated to an epiphyseal scar, and stage 5: full ossification without epiphyseal scar). Intra-observer variability was excellent, and inter-observer variability was good, demonstrating the reliability of this MSCT staging system. The fusion of scapular ossification centers was statistically associated with age (p < 0.001) but not with sex (p > 0.05). In conclusion, MSCT of the scapula is an efficient method for age assessment, which is complementary to preexisting methods particularly for specifying the 18-year threshold. Further studies with larger groups are needed to support our results.

Forensic age estimation of living persons from the knee: Comparison of MRI with radiographs

To perform a study to clarify how strong the chronological age relates to ossification of the knee in Chinese on X-rays and the MRI when a similar four-stage grading system was used. 322 individuals with conventional radiographs and MRI were collected from routine medical investigations and evaluated retrospectively. Bland Altman plots were performed to reveal the agreement of grading of MRI and radiograph. Regression analysis was conducted to establish a mathematical model for age estimation. The ossification process of the knee occurs earlier in females than in males for about 1-2 years. The process on X-ray grading is consistently higher than that of MRI. The chronological age is well correlated with both grading of MRI and radiograph (all p values were less than 0.001). By comparison, the R-square of grading of MRI were relatively higher than that of radiograph. Finally, the chronological age is well correlated with the ossification of the knee when both grading of MRI and radiograph were used, with the R-square for MRI were relatively higher than that of radiograph. Furthermore, the use of MRI will reduce exposure to X-ray radiation as much as possible.

Age estimation based on pelvic ossification using regression models from conventional radiography

To establish regression models for age estimation from the combination of the ossification of iliac crest and ischial tuberosity. One thousand three hundred and seventy-nine conventional pelvic radiographs at the West China Hospital of Sichuan University between January 2010 and June 2012 were evaluated retrospectively. The receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to measure the value of estimation of 18 years of age with the classification scheme for the iliac crest and ischial tuberosity. Regression analysis was performed, and formulas for calculating approximate chronological age according to the combination developmental status of the ossification for the iliac crest and ischial tuberosity were developed. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were above 0.9 (p < 0.001), indicating a good prediction of the grading systems, and the cubic regression model was found to have the highest R-square value (R (2) = 0.744 for female and R (2) = 0.753 for male). The present classification scheme for apophyseal iliac crest ossification and the ischial tuberosity may be used for age estimation. And the present established cubic regression model according to the combination developmental status of the ossification for the iliac crest and ischial tuberosity can be used for age estimation.

Third molar maturity index (I3M) for assessing age of majority in a black African population in Botswana

Assessment of legal age, also known as age of majority, is a controversial issue as there are few body biomarkers or evidence during late adolescence differentiating a subject from being a minor or adult. The third molar was recognized as a suitable site for age examination in late adolescence. We analyzed the development of the left mandibular third molar by the third molar maturity index (I3M) and a specific cut-off value of I3M = 0.08, established by Cameriere et al. in 2008 and used it for discriminating between minors and adult black Africans from Gaborone, Botswana. A final sample of panoramic radiographs (OPTs) of 1294 people (582 males and 712 females) aged between 13 and 23 years was evaluated. The real age decreased as I3M gradually increased. There was no statistically significant difference in the third molar development evaluated using I3M between males and females (p > 0.05) across different I3M classes. Results of 2 × 2 contingency tables for different cut-off values indicated that I3M = 0.08 was useful in discriminating between adults and minors. Precisely, for I3M = 0.08, the values of accuracy or overall fraction of correctly classified were 0.91 in males with a 95 % confidence interval (95 % CI) of 0.88 to 0.93 and 0.92 (95 % CI, 0.90 to 0.93) in females. Values of sensitivity of the test or the proportion of participants being 18 years and older were 0.88 (95 % CI, 0.87 to 0.90) in males and 0.88 (95 % CI, 0.90 to 0.93) in females, while values of specificity or proportion of individuals younger than 18 who have I3M <0.08 were 0.94 (95 % CI, 0.91 to 0.96) in males and 0.96 (95 % CI, 0.94 to 0.98) in females. Positive predictive values of the test, where the participants whose I3M <0.08 were adults, were 0.94 (95 % CI 0.91 to 0.96) in males and 0.97 (95 % CI, 0.94 to 0.98) in females, while negative predictive values of the test, where the participants whose I3M was ≥0.08 were minors, were 0.88 (95 % CI 0.85 to 0.90) in males and 0.97 (95 % CI, 0.94 to 0.98) in females. The likelihood ratios of the positive test (LR+) were 13.67 (95 % CI, 9.21 to 21.02) in males and 23.73 (95 % CI, 14.20 to 42.28) in females, while likelihood ratios of the negative test (LR-) were 0.12 (95 % CI 0.10 to 0.16) in males and 0.12 (95 % CI, 0.11 to 0.15) in females. Bayes post-test probabilities, p, were 0.94 (95 % CI 0.90 to 0.98) in males and 0.97 (95 %CI, 0.93 to 1.00) in females. These results indicate with high accuracy that I3M may be a useful alternative method in legal and forensic practice to discriminate individuals of black African origin who are around the legal adult age of 18 years in Botswana. Further studies should address the usefulness of this method and specific cut-off for different adolescent populations.

Time of mineralization of permanent teeth in children and adolescents in Gaborone, Botswana

The mineralization sequence of permanent dentition can be used to assess the stage of development and age of individuals. The most commonly used methods are based on the assessment of developmental stages of target groups of teeth on one side of the lower jaw. When compared with the rest of the world, fewer studies have been done on dental age in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in the region of Southern Africa. The aim of this study was to determine the chronology of mineralization of permanent teeth by the evaluation of developmental stages according to the Demirjian's method from 1973 and to evaluate dental age by using sex-specific self-weighted scores for dental stages and 50th percentile conversion tables of total maturity scores of seven mandibular teeth. We used a sample of panoramic radiographs (OPTs) of black African children and adolescents from the city of Gaborone, Botswana, with the aim of forming an appropriate sample to evaluate the development of the teeth in this socio-geographic environment. The final sample consisted of 1760 OPTs (807 males and 953 females) of individuals aged 6-23 years. The developmental stages of the all permanent teeth in the left side of the maxilla and the mandible were evaluated. Comparing the maxilla and the mandible, we found similar development within different stages for most of the teeth. In comparison to the average age at each stage of development, including the third molars between males and females, it is evident that females are slightly faster in developing permanent teeth, but without statistical significance for most of the developmental stages. Applying 50th percentile conversion tables for calculating the dental age for the first seven mandibular teeth, 616 OPTs of the children (299 males and 317 females), aged 6.08-16.80 years, were evaluated and their dental age was calculated. Mean dental age was overestimated in comparison to chronological age by 1.25±1.11 years and 0.72±1.02 years for males and females, respectively (p<0.001). These findings indicate that Demirjian's method from 1973 is not suitable for routine use and that there is a need for establishing specific standards for Botswana children of black African origin for dental age estimation.