A Bayesian computational model to investigate expert anticipation of a seemingly unpredictable ball bounce

The Impact of Skill Level on the Integration of Information and Post-Error Adjustment during Action Anticipation in Basketball

The present study examined the impact of skill level on the integration of contextual prior information and kinematic information alongside post-error adjustment during action anticipation in basketball. Twenty-three collegiate basketball players and twenty-three control participants engaged in anticipating as quickly and accurately as possible the outcomes of free throws, utilizing video clips depicting basketball players' actions, both with and without contextual prior information. Anticipatory performance and the difference in anticipatory performance following errors and correct responses were analyzed based on skill level and the congruency of contextual prior information (none, congruent, and incongruent). The findings revealed that the congruency of contextual prior information significantly affects action anticipation, with skill level moderating this effect. Moreover, skill level influenced the congruency effect on accuracy discrepancies between post-error and post-correct trials during action anticipation, with controls showing greater sensitivity to previous trial performance compared to experts. These results provide further evidence for the notion that individuals employ Bayesian reliability-based strategies to integrate different information sources and underscore the role of skill level in adjusting anticipatory judgments following errors during action anticipation. These insights contribute to a deeper understanding of the cognitive and behavioral mechanisms that differentiate skill levels in action anticipation, potentially guiding the development of targeted training interventions.

The effect of task load, information reliability and interdependency on anticipation performance

In sport, coaches often explicitly provide athletes with stable contextual information related to opponent action preferences to enhance anticipation performance. This information can be dependent on, or independent of, dynamic contextual information that only emerges during the sequence of play (e.g. opponent positioning). The interdependency between contextual information sources, and the associated cognitive demands of integrating information sources during anticipation, has not yet been systematically examined. We used a temporal occlusion paradigm to alter the reliability of contextual and kinematic information during the early, mid- and final phases of a two-versus-two soccer anticipation task. A dual-task paradigm was incorporated to investigate the impact of task load on skilled soccer players' ability to integrate information and update their judgements in each phase. Across conditions, participants received no contextual information (control) or stable contextual information (opponent preferences) that was dependent on, or independent of, dynamic contextual information (opponent positioning). As predicted, participants used reliable contextual and kinematic information to enhance anticipation. Further exploratory analysis suggested that increased task load detrimentally affected anticipation accuracy but only when both reliable contextual and kinematic information were available for integration in the final phase. This effect was observed irrespective of whether the stable contextual information was dependent on, or independent of, dynamic contextual information. Findings suggest that updating anticipatory judgements in the final phase of a sequence of play based on the integration of reliable contextual and kinematic information requires cognitive resources.

Coping strategies and brain activity in table tennis players faced with discrepancies between predicted and actual outcomes

Prior studies have shown that experts possess an excellent ability for action anticipation. However, it is not clear how experts process the discrepancies between predicted outcomes and actual outcomes. Based on Bayesian theory, Experiment 1 in the current study explored this question by categorizing unexpected outcomes into gradually increasing discrepancies and comparing the performance of experts and novices on a congruence discrimination task. Our behavioral analysis revealed that experts outperformed novices significantly in detecting these discrepancies. The following electroencephalogram study in Experiment 2 was conducted focused exclusively on experts to examine the role of theta wave oscillations within the mid-frontal cortex in processing varying levels of discrepancy. The results showed that reaction time and theta oscillations gradually increased as the magnitude of discrepancy increased. These findings indicate that compared to the novices, experts have a better ability to perceptual the discrepancy. Also, the magnitude of discrepancies induced an increase in mid-frontal theta in experts, providing greater flexibility in their response strategies.

Action outcome probability influences the size of the head-fake effect in basketball

Both kinematic and contextual information (e.g., action outcome probability) play a significant role in action anticipation. However, few researchers have examined the reciprocal influence of the two types of information and fewer still have investigated this issue for deceptive actions in sports. In the present study, we investigate the impact of action outcome probability on the processing of deceptive kinematic cues for the head fake in basketball. We manipulated the probability of the action outcome to either pass the ball to the left or to the right side (i.e., 75%, 50%, 25%) and examined how this contextual information affected the influence of head orientation on pass direction judgments. Outcome probability information was either provided explicitly (Experiment 1) or implicitly (Experiment 2). Both experiments indicated an increased head-fake effect with increasing outcome probability. Moreover, the bias to respond in line with the player's head direction increased linearly with outcome probability. Also, discriminability between deceptive and genuine actions was poorer for high outcome probability (75%) associated with head orientation than for the 25% and 50% values. Last, a stronger response bias toward the higher probability side for deceptive trials than for genuine trials was only significant when the outcome probability information was processed implicitly in Experiment 2. The results of this study fit well with recent literature on contextual information in action prediction and are discussed in light of confirmation bias and signal detection theory.

Optimal integration of kinematic and ball-flight information when perceiving the speed of a moving ball

In order to intercept a moving target such as a baseball with high spatio-temporal accuracy, the perception of the target's movement speed is important for estimating when and where the target will arrive. However, it is unclear what sources of information are used by a batter to estimate ball speed and how those sources of information are integrated to facilitate successful interception. In this study, we examined the degree to which kinematic and ball-flight information are integrated when estimating ball speed in baseball batting. Thirteen university level baseball batters performed a ball-speed evaluation task in a virtual environment where they were required to determine which of two comparison baseball pitches (i.e., a reference and comparison stimuli) they perceived to be faster. The reference and comparison stimuli had the same physical ball speed, but with different pitching movement speeds in the comparison stimuli. The task was performed under slow (125 km/h) and fast (145 km/h) ball-speed conditions. Results revealed that the perceived ball-speed was influenced by the movement speed of the pitcher's motion, with the influence of the pitcher's motion more pronounced in the fast ball-speed condition when ball-flight information was presumably less reliable. Moreover, exploratory analyses suggested that the more skilled batters were increasingly likely to integrate the two sources of information according to their relative reliability when making judgements of ball speed. The results provide important insights into how skilled performers may make judgements of speed and time to contact, and further enhance our understanding of how the ability to make those judgements might improve when developing expertise in hitting.