Predictive factors for surgical treatment in preterm neonates with necrotizing enterocolitis: a multicenter case-control study

Construction and evaluation of a risk model for adverse outcomes of necrotizing enterocolitis based on LASSO-Cox regression

Objective

This study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict adverse outcomes in neonates with necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC).

Methods

In this retrospective study on neonates with NEC, data on perinatal characteristics, clinical features, laboratory findings, and x-ray examinations were collected for the included patients. A risk model and its nomogram were developed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression analyses.

Results

A total of 182 cases of NEC were included and divided into a training set (148 cases) and a temporal validation set (34 cases). Eight features, including weight [p = 0.471, HR = 0.99 (95% CI: 0.98-1.00)], history of congenital heart disease [p < 0.001, HR = 3.13 (95% CI:1.75-5.61)], blood transfusion before onset [p = 0.757, HR = 0.85 (95%CI:0.29-2.45)], antibiotic exposure before onset [p = 0.003, HR = 5.52 (95% CI:1.81-16.83)], C-reactive protein (CRP) at onset [p = 0.757, HR = 1.01 (95%CI:1.00-1.02)], plasma sodium at onset [p < 0.001, HR = 4.73 (95%CI:2.61-8.59)], dynamic abdominal x-ray score change [p = 0.001, HR = 4.90 (95%CI:2.69-8.93)], and antibiotic treatment regimen [p = 0.250, HR = 1.83 (0.65-5.15)], were ultimately selected for model building. The C-index for the predictive model was 0.850 (95% CI: 0.804-0.897) for the training set and 0.7880.788 (95% CI: 0.656-0.921) for the validation set. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) at 8-, 10-, and 12-days were 0.889 (95% CI: 0.822-0.956), 0.891 (95% CI: 0.829-0.953), and 0.893 (95% CI:0.832-0.954) in the training group, and 0.812 (95% CI: 0.633-0.991), 0.846 (95% CI: 0.695-0.998), and 0.798 (95%CI: 0.623-0.973) in the validation group, respectively. Calibration curves showed good concordance between the predicted and observed outcomes, and DCA demonstrated adequate clinical benefit.

Conclusions

The LASSO-Cox model effectively identifies NEC neonates at high risk of adverse outcomes across all time points. Notably, at earlier time points (such as the 8-day mark), the model also demonstrates strong predictive performance, facilitating the early prediction of adverse outcomes in infants with NEC. This early prediction can contribute to timely clinical decision-making and ultimately improve patient prognosis.

Development of a Prediction Model for Surgery or Early Mortality at the Time of Initial Assessment for Necrotizing Enterocolitis

OBJECTIVE

 No available scale, at the time of initial evaluation for necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC), accurately predicts, that is, with an area under the curve (AUC) ≥0.9, which preterm infants will undergo surgery for NEC stage III or die within a week.

STUDY DESIGN

 This is a retrospective cohort study (n = 261) of preterm infants with <33 weeks' gestation or <1,500 g birth weight with either suspected or with definite NEC born at Parkland Hospital between 2009 and 2021. A prediction model using the new HASOFA score (Hyperglycemia, Hyperkalemia, use of inotropes for Hypotension during the prior week, Acidemia, Neonatal Sequential Organ Failure Assessment [nSOFA] score) was compared with a similar model using the nSOFA score.

RESULTS

 Among 261 infants, 112 infants had NEC stage I, 68 with NEC stage II, and 81 with NEC stage III based on modified Bell's classification. The primary outcome, surgery for NEC stage III or death within a week, occurred in 81 infants (surgery in 66 infants and death in 38 infants). All infants with pneumoperitoneum or abdominal compartment syndrome either died or had surgery. The HASOFA and the nSOFA scores were evaluated in 254 and 253 infants, respectively, at the time of the initial workup for NEC. Both models were internally validated. The HASOFA model was a better predictor of surgery for NEC stage III or death within a week than the nSOFA model, with greater AUC 0.909 versus 0.825, respectively, p < 0.001. Combining HASOFA at initial assessment with concurrent or later presence of abdominal wall erythema or portal gas improved the prediction surgery for NEC stage III or death with AUC 0.942 or 0.956, respectively.

CONCLUSION

 Using this new internally validated prediction model, surgery for NEC stage III or death within a week can be accurately predicted at the time of initial assessment for NEC.

KEY POINTS

· No available scale, at initial evaluation, accurately predicts which preterm infants will undergo surgery for NEC stage III or die within a week.. · In this retrospective cohort study of 261 preterm infants with either suspected or definite NEC we developed a new prediction model (HASOFA score).. · The HASOFA-model had high discrimination (AUC: 0.909) and excellent calibration and was internally validated..

Surgical necrotizing enterocolitis risk factors in extremely preterm infants: a Korean nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

The incidence of necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) is significantly associated with gestational age (GA). This study aimed to investigate risk factors for surgically treated NEC (sNEC) in extremely preterm infants (EPIs) using nationwide cohort registry.

METHODS

Data were collected from 16,338 very-low-birth-weight infants registered in the Korean neonatal network. Clinical data of 5310 EPIs were retrospectively analyzed. sNEC was defined as infants with diagnosis of NEC requiring surgical treatment, who underwent surgical intervention for NEC or died before surgery. Infants were categorized into three groups based on their NEC status: infants without NEC (control), medically treated NEC (mNEC), and sNEC. These groups were matched based on GA to investigate risk factors for NEC.

RESULTS

In EPIs, small for gestational age (SGA; odds ratio 1.68, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.17-2.36, p = 0.004), hypotension (1.49, 1.18-1.89, p = 0.001), and IVH (1.63, 1.30-2.05, p < 0.001) were identified as risk factors for sNEC. Complete administration of antenatal steroid reduced the risk of sNEC (0.80, 0.64-0.99, p = 0.044).

CONCLUSION

Our study demonstrated that EPIs who are SGA, and experience hypotension and IVH may be at an increased risk of developing NEC requiring surgery. These groups require close attention and monitoring for any signs of surgical indications of NEC.

IMPACT

This nationwide cohort study aimed to identify characteristics of infants with necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) among extremely preterm infants (EPIs) and analyze the risk factors associated with NEC requiring surgical intervention. Small for gestational age (SGA), hypotension, and intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) were identified as significant risk factors for surgically treated NEC (sNEC) in EPIs. The administration of antenatal steroids decreases the risk of sNEC. Close attention and monitoring for EPIs with early identifiable risk factors such as SGA, hypotension, and IVH should be considered to prevent and detect sNEC early, ultimately leading to improved long-term outcomes.

Influencing factors for surgical treatment in neonatal necrotizing enterocolitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) is a complex disease characterized by gastrointestinal inflammation and is one of the most common gastrointestinal emergencies in neonates. Mild to moderate cases of NEC require medical treatment, whereas severe cases necessitate surgical intervention. However, evidence for surgical indications is limited and largely dependent on the surgeon's experience, leading to variability in outcomes. The primary aim of this study is to identify the risk factors for surgical intervention in neonatal NEC, which will aid in predicting the optimal timing for surgical intervention.

METHODS

A literature search was conducted in PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science databases for case-control studies exploring risk factors for NEC requiring surgical intervention. The search was completed on June 16, 2024, and data analysis was performed using R Studio 4.3.2.

RESULTS

18 studies were included, comprising 1,104 cases in the surgery group and 1,686 in the medical treatment group. The meta-analysis indicated that high C-reactive protein (CRP) levels [OR = 1.42, 95% CI (1.01, 1.99)], lower gestational age [OR = 0.52, 95% CI (0.3, 0.91)], sepsis [OR = 2.94, 95% CI (1.87, 4.60)], coagulation disorder [OR = 3.45, 95% CI (1.81, 6.58)], lack of enteral feeding [OR = 3.18, 95% CI (1.37, 7.35)], and hyponatremia [OR = 1.22, 95% CI (1.07, 1.39)] are significant risk factors for surgical treatment in neonatal NEC.

CONCLUSIONS

High CRP levels, coagulation disorders, sepsis, lower gestational age, lack of enteral feeding, and hyponatremia are significant risk factors for surgical intervention in neonatal NEC. These findings have potential clinical significance for predicting surgical risk.

Machine learning-based analysis for prediction of surgical necrotizing enterocolitis in very low birth weight infants using perinatal factors: a nationwide cohort study

Early prediction of surgical necrotizing enterocolitis (sNEC) in preterm infants is important. However, owing to the complexity of the disease, identifying infants with NEC at a high risk for surgical intervention is difficult. We developed a machine learning (ML) algorithm to predict sNEC using perinatal factors obtained from the national cohort registry of very low birth weight (VLBW) infants. Data were collected from the medical records of 16,385 VLBW infants registered in the Korean Neonatal Network (KNN). Infants who underwent surgical intervention were identified with sNEC, and infants who received medical treatment, with medical NEC (mNEC). We used 38 variables, including maternal, prenatal, and postnatal factors that were obtained within 1 week of birth, for training. A total of 1085 patients had NEC (654 with sNEC and 431 with mNEC). VLBW infants showed a higher incidence of sNEC at a lower gestational age (GA) (p < 0.001). Our proposed ensemble model showed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.721 for sNEC prediction.    Conclusion: Proposed ensemble model may help predict which infants with NEC are likely to develop sNEC. Through early prediction and prompt intervention, prognosis of sNEC may be improved. What is Known: • Machine learning (ML)-based techniques have been employed in NEC research for prediction, diagnosis, and prognosis, with promising outcomes. • While most studies have utilized abdominal radiographs and clinical manifestations of NEC as data sources, and have demonstrated their usefulness, they may prove weak in terms of early prediction. What is New: • We analyzed the perinatal factors of VLBW infants acquired within 7 days of birth and used ML-based analysis to identify which infants with NEC are vulnerable to clinical deterioration and at high risk for surgical intervention using nationwide cohort data.

Recent advances in our understanding of NEC diagnosis, prognosis and surgical approach

Necrotising enterocolitis (NEC) remains a devasting condition that has seen limited improvement in outcomes in recent years. The incidence of the disease is increasing as more extremely premature infants survive. NEC is responsible for 1 in 10 neonatal deaths and up to 61% of survivors have significant neurodevelopmental delay. The aim of this review is to highlight recent advances in diagnosis, prognosis and surgical approach in this condition. Many recent studies have reported novel methods of diagnosis of NEC with the aim of earlier and more accurate identification. These include imaging and machine learning techniques. Prognostication of NEC is particularly important to allow earlier escalation of therapy. Around 25% of infants with NEC will require surgery and recent data has shown that time from disease onset to surgery is greater in infants whose indication for surgery is failed medical management, rather than pneumoperitoneum. This indication was also associated with worse outcomes compared to pneumoperitoneum. Ongoing research has highlighted several new methods of disease prognostication which includes differentiating surgical from medical NEC. Finally, recent randomised controlled trials in surgical technique are discussed along with the implications of these for practice. Further, high quality research utilising multi-centre collaborations and high fidelity data from electronic patient records is needed to address the issues discussed and ultimately improve outcomes in NEC.

A Retrospective Case Control Study Examining Procalcitonin as a Biomarker for Necrotizing Enterocolitis

Abstract Background: Procalcitonin (PCT) is a biomarker for sepsis, but its utility has not been investigated in necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC). Necrotizing enterocolitis is a devastating multisystem disease of infants that in severe cases requires surgical intervention. We hypothesize that an elevated PCT will be associated with surgical NEC. Patients and Methods: After obtaining Institutional Review Board (IRB) approval (#12655), we performed a single institution retrospective case control study between 2010 and 2021 of infants up to three months of age. Inclusion criteria was PCT drawn within 72 hours of NEC or sepsis diagnosis. Control infants had a PCT drawn in the absence of infectious symptoms. Recursive partitioning (RP) identified PCT cutoffs. Categorical variable associations were tested using Fisher exact or χ² tests. Continuous variables were tested using Wilcoxon rank sum test, Student t-test, and Kruskal-Wallis test. Adjusted associations of PCT and other covariables with NEC or sepsis versus controls were obtained via multinomial logistic regression analysis. Results: We identified 49 patients with NEC, 71 with sepsis, and 523 control patients. Based on RP, we selected two PCT cutoffs: 1.4 ng/mL and 3.19 ng/ml. A PCT of ≥1.4 ng/mL was associated with surgical (n = 16) compared with medical (n = 33) NEC (87.5% vs. 39.4%; p = 0.0015). A PCT of ≥1.4 ng/mL was associated with NEC versus control (p < 0.0001) even when adjusting for prematurity and excluding stage IA/IB NEC (odds ratio [OR], 28.46; 95% confidence interval [CI], 11.27-71.88). A PCT of 1.4-3.19 ng/mL was associated with both NEC (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 11.43; 95% CI, 2.57-50.78) and sepsis (aOR, 6.63; 95% CI, 2.66-16.55) compared with controls. Conclusions: A PCT of ≥1.4 ng/mL is associated with surgical NEC and may be a potential indicator for risk of disease progression.

Simple Scoring System that Predicts the Need for Surgical Intervention in Infants with Necrotizing Enterocolitis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

It is difficult to identify those preterm infants who require surgical intervention. This study examined the predictive factors for bowel resection in infants with definitive and advanced necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC). We then developed a scoring system to better predict the need for surgical intervention.

METHODS

A total of 203 infants with modified Bell's stage 2 or higher NEC from January 2018-December 2020 were identified for this study. A retrospective study evaluated the association between several comprehensive variables and surgical intervention using a multiple logistic regression analysis, and then a scoring system was developed based on the sum of coefficients (β).

RESULTS

Of the 135 patients who met the inclusion criteria, 57 infants underwent a surgical intervention. The multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that birth weight (regression coefficient, β = 1.30), PCT (β = 2.33), not having received enteral nutrition before the diagnosis of NEC (β = 2.13), acidosis (β = 1.57), respiratory alkalosis (β = 2.42), hypokalemia (β = 2.14), peritonitis (β = 2.87) and coagulation disorders (β = 1.78) were associated with the occurrence of bowel resection. A scoring system ranging from 0-17 was developed based on the total coefficient obtained. It was found that a cut-off score of 5 may distinguish those infants needing surgical intervention from other infants with NEC.

CONCLUSION

We successfully developed a clinical decision-making tool associated with the need for surgical intervention among infants with advanced NEC. The risk scoring system could accurately identify infants who would benefit from surgical intervention.

Value of abdominal ultrasonography in predicting intestinal resection for premature infants with necrotizing enterocolitis

BACKGROUND

Abdominal ultrasonography (AUS) has been suggested to be valuable in the early detection of necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC).

OBJECTIVE

Here, we intended to assess the efficiency of abdominal ultrasound in terms of predicting bowel resection in infants with NEC.

METHODS

From January 2018 to March 2021, 164 hospitalized children with NEC who underwent surgical management were enrolled. The enrolled infants were separated into two groups according to whether they underwent bowel resection. We reviewed the clinical data, as well as dynamic sonographic and abdominal radiographic (AR) parameters. The potential performance of AUS parameters was identified and compared with that of AR using a logistic regression analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

RESULTS

Several parameters were detected to be statistically significant in predicting the occurrence of bowel resection, including thick to thin transformation [p < 0.001, odds ratios (OR), 4.38; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.26-8.52], absence of peristalsis certain areas (p = 0.001, OR, 2.99; 95% CI 1.53-5.86), absence of bowel wall perfusion (p < 0.001, OR 10.56; 95% CI 5.09-21.90), and portal venous gas (p = 0.016, OR, 2.21; 95% CI 1.12-4.37). Furthermore, the ROC curve analysis showed significant differences (p = 0.0021) in the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) for the logistic models of AUS (AUROC: 0.755, 95% CI 0.660-0.849) and AR (AUROC: 0.693, 95% CI 0.597-0.789) for the prediction of intestinal resection.

CONCLUSIONS

A dynamic AUS examination play an important role to indicate the potential for bowel loss during the surgery.

Risk factors and a simple scoring system for predicting bowel resection in infants with NEC

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

We intended to investigate the predictors for bowel resection in infants with necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC). We further developed a scoring system for better predicting bowel resection.

METHODS

A total of 207 infants who underwent surgical management at Children's Hospital, Chongqing Medical University between April 2008 and December 2020 were identified for the following investigation. Bowel resection was reviewed among the infants who underwent the procedure. Potential parameters related to bowel resection were explored using a multiple logistic regression method, and then a scoring system was developed.

RESULTS

Among the 207 patients who underwent operative intervention that were reviewed, 109 infants underwent bowel resection. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that birth weight, hypotension, neutropenia, pneumoperitoneum, acidosis, and intestinal wall thickness were predictors related to the occurrence of bowel resection. A 6-point scoring system was further developed based on the obtained total coefficient, and the infants could be divided into low-, moderate- and high-risk groups according to cut values of 7 and 13.

CONCLUSION

The results of this study demonstrated that severe NEC features and low birth weight were associated with bowel resection. The risk scoring system could accurately separate infants that were suspected to have bowel loss during surgery.

Framework for feature selection of predicting the diagnosis and prognosis of necrotizing enterocolitis

Neonatal necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) occurs worldwide and is a major source of neonatal morbidity and mortality. Researchers have developed many methods for predicting NEC diagnosis and prognosis. However, most people use statistical methods to select features, which may ignore the correlation between features. In addition, because they consider a small dimension of characteristics, they neglect some laboratory parameters such as white blood cell count, lymphocyte percentage, and mean platelet volume, which could be potentially influential factors affecting the diagnosis and prognosis of NEC. To address these issues, we include more perinatal, clinical, and laboratory information, including anemia—red blood cell transfusion and feeding strategies, and propose a ridge regression and Q-learning strategy based bee swarm optimization (RQBSO) metaheuristic algorithm for predicting NEC diagnosis and prognosis. Finally, a linear support vector machine (linear SVM), which specializes in classifying high-dimensional features, is used as a classifier. In the NEC diagnostic prediction experiment, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of dataset 1 (feeding intolerance + NEC) reaches 94.23%. In the NEC prognostic prediction experiment, the AUROC of dataset 2 (medical NEC + surgical NEC) reaches 91.88%. Additionally, the classification accuracy of the RQBSO algorithm on the NEC dataset is higher than the other feature selection algorithms. Thus, the proposed approach has the potential to identify predictors that contribute to the diagnosis of NEC and stratification of disease severity in a clinical setting.

Association between prognostic factors and the clinical deterioration of preterm neonates with necrotizing enterocolitis

Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) is responsible for most morbidity and mortality in neonates. Early recognition of the clinical deterioration in newborns with NEC is essential to enhance the referral and management and potentially improve the outcomes. Here, we aimed to identify the prognostic factors and associate them with the clinical deterioration of preterm neonates with NEC. We analyzed the medical records of neonates with NEC admitted to our hospital from 2016 to 2021. We ascertained 214 neonates with NEC. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and cut-off level of age at onset, C-reactive protein (CRP), leukocyte count, and platelet count for the clinical deterioration of preterm neonates with NEC was 0.644 and 10.5 days old, 0.694 and 4.5 mg/L, 0.513 and 12,200/mm³, and 0.418 and 79,500/mm³, respectively. Late-onset, history of blood transfusion, thrombocytopenia, and elevated CRP were significantly associated with the clinical deterioration of neonates with NEC (p =  < 0.001, 0.017, 0.001, and < 0.001, respectively), while leukocytosis, gestational age, and birth weight were not (p = 0.073, 0.274, and 0.637, respectively). Multivariate analysis revealed that late-onset and elevated CRP were strongly associated with the clinical deterioration of neonates with NEC, with an odds ratio of 3.25 (95% CI = 1.49-7.09; p = 0.003) and 3.53 (95% CI = 1.57-7.95; p = 0.002), respectively. We reveal that late-onset and elevated CRP are the independent prognostic factor for the clinical deterioration of preterm neonates with NEC. Our findings suggest that we should closely monitor preterm neonates with NEC, particularly those with late-onset of the disease and those with an elevated CRP, to prevent further clinical deterioration and intervene earlier if necessary.

Development of artificial neural networks for early prediction of intestinal perforation in preterm infants

Intestinal perforation (IP) in preterm infants is a life-threatening condition that may result in serious complications and increased mortality. Early Prediction of IP in infants is important, but challenging due to its multifactorial and complex nature of the disease. Thus, there are no reliable tools to predict IP in infants. In this study, we developed new machine learning (ML) models for predicting IP in very low birth weight (VLBW) infants and compared their performance to that of classic ML methods. We developed artificial neural networks (ANNs) using VLBW infant data from a nationwide cohort and prospective web-based registry. The new ANN models, which outperformed all other classic ML methods, showed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.8832 for predicting IP associated with necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC-IP) and 0.8797 for spontaneous IP (SIP). We tested these algorithms using patient data from our institution, which were not included in the training dataset, and obtained an AUROC of 1.0000 for NEC-IP and 0.9364 for SIP. NEC-IP and SIP in VLBW infants can be predicted at an excellent performance level with these newly developed ML models. https://github.com/kdhRick2222/Early-Prediction-of-Intestinal-Perforation-in-Preterm-Infants.

Predictive Factors for Surgical Intervention in Neonates with Necrotizing Enterocolitis: A Retrospective Study

Background

The current indications based on the clinicopathological parameters for predicting the need for surgery in neonatal necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) are still limited. This study retrospectively analyzes the characteristics of neonatal NEC and aims to identify the risk factors for surgical intervention in NEC.

Methods

Data of the NEC cases from 2015 to 2019 were collected from our institution and divided into two groups: surgical group (n = 41) and conservative treatment group (n = 143). Clinical, physical, and laboratory measures were analyzed by univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression. The diagnostic values and receiver operative characteristic (ROC) curve were used for the assessment.

Results

Univariate analysis identified significant differences between the surgical group and the conservative group in a series of clinical, physical, and laboratory measures (all p < 0.05). The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that procalcitonin (adjusted OR: 167.1, 95% CI, 3.585–7,788.758, p = 0.009) and gestational age (adjusted OR: 0.85, 95% CI, 0.77–0.94, p = 0.001) were independent surgical indications for NEC. The results from ROC curve and diagnosis values demonstrated that procalcitonin [the area under the curve (AUC) = 0.864], CRP (AUC = 0.783) and fibrinogen (AUC = 0.720) had good predictive performance for surgical NEC.

Conclusions

The level of procalcitonin and gestational age were found to be independent surgical indications for neonates with NEC.

Serum Relmβ combined with abdominal signs may predict surgical timing in neonates with NEC: A cohort study

AIMS

To examine the predictive value of serum biomarkers combined with other indicators for necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) surgery decision-making.

METHODS

Clinical data, including baseline information, clinical features, imaging presentation and serum assessment, of the infants enrolled were collected, and the serum concentrations of HBD2, HMGB-1, Claudin-3 and Relmβ were determined. Student's t test, the Mann-Whitney U test, the chi-square test and logistic regression analysis were used. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were also generated.

RESULTS

Forty-nine infants were enrolled, with 23 in the surgical NEC group and 26 in the medical NEC group. There were no differences in the baseline clinical information, including birth weight, gestational age, admission age and risk factors, during pregnancy and before enrollment (P > 0.05). Peritonitis, intestinal adhesion and sepsis were more common in the surgical group (P < 0.05). The incidences of abdominal distention, abdominal wall tenseness, abdominal tenderness and absent bowel sounds in the surgical group were significantly higher when NEC occurred (P < 0.05). There were no differences between the two groups in the imaging presentation (P > 0.05). The concentration of Relmβ {[8.66 (4.29, 19.28) vs. 20.65 (9.51, 44.65)]} in the surgical group was significantly higher (P < 0.05). Abdominal wall tenseness, abdominal tenderness and a Relmβ concentration > 19.7 μmol/L were included in the predictive model, and the AUC of the predictive score was 0.943 (95% CI: 0.891-1.000) (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Serum Relmβ concentration combined with abdominal wall tenseness and abdominal tenderness may be useful in determining surgical timing in neonates with NEC.

Predictive factors for rapid progression in preterm neonates with necrotizing enterocolitis

BACKGROUND

Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) is a devastating gastrointestinal emergency with significant mortality and morbidity rates. A subset of patients progressed rapidly and underwent surgical intervention within a short period. This study aimed to establish a model to predict the rapid progression of NEC in preterm neonates.

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted to review neonates with NEC between December 2015 and April 2019 at the Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center. Rapidly progressive NEC was defined as the need for surgical intervention or death within 48 h of NEC onset. Patients were divided into two groups: rapidly progressive NEC (RP-NEC) and non-rapidly progressive NEC (nRP-NEC). Data on demographics, perinatal characteristics, examination variables, and radiographic findings at onset were collected.

RESULTS

A total of 216 preterm neonates with NEC were included in the study, of which 64 had RP-NEC and 152 had nRP-NEC. The mortality rates of patients with RP-NEC and nRP-NEC were 32.8% and 3.28%, respectively. Male sex (p-value, adjusted odds ratio [95% confidence interval]: 0.002, 3.43 [1.57, 7.53]), portal venous gas (0.000, 8.82 [3.73, 20.89]), neutrophils <2.0 × 10⁹/L (0.005, 4.44 [1.59, 12.43]), pH <7.3 (7.2 ≤ pH < 7.3) (0.041, 2.95 [1.05, 8.31]), and pH <7.2 (0.000, 11.95 [2.97, 48.12]) at NEC onset were identified as independent risk factors for RP-NEC. An established model that included the four risk factors presented an area under the curve of 0.801 with 83% specificity and 66% sensitivity.

CONCLUSION

Among preterm neonates with NEC, a significantly higher mortality rate was observed in those with rapid progression. It is recommended that close surveillance be performed in these patients, and we are confident that our established model can efficiently predict this rapid progression course.

Analysis of risk factors for unplanned reoperation following primary repair of gastrointestinal disorders in neonates

Background

The aim of our study was to identify the factors associated with unplanned reoperations among neonates who had undergone primary repair of gastrointestinal disorders.

Methods

A retrospective chart review was conducted for neonates who underwent primary gastrointestinal surgery between July 2018 and September 2020. The neonates were divided into two cohort, depending on whether they had an unplanned reoperation. The primary outcome was the occurrence of unplanned reoperation. The risk factors that associated the occurrence of unplanned reoperation were examined.

Main results

Two hundred ninety-six neonates fulfilled the eligibility criteria. The incidence of unplanned reoperation was 9.8%. Analyses of all patients with respect of developing unplanned reoperation showed that the length of operative time was an independent risk factor [Odds Ratio 1.02; 95% confidence interval 1.00, 1.04; p = 0.03]. Patients with unplanned reoperation had a longer postoperative hospital length-of-stay [19.9 ± 14.7 vs. 44.1 ± 32.1 days; p<0.01].

Conclusion

The current study is the first analysis of risk factors associated with an unplanned reoperation in neonates undergoing primary repair of gastrointestinal disorders. The length of operative time is the only risk factor for an unplanned reoperation, and the unplanned reoperation can directly prolong the postoperative hospital length-of-stay.

Trial registration

This study was registered at http://www.chictr.org.cn/index.aspx with No. ChiCTR2000040260.