Spring vegetation phenology is a robust predictor of breeding date across broad landscapes: a multi-site approach using the Corsican blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus)

Odours of caterpillar-infested trees increase testosterone concentrations in male great tits

Trees release Herbivore-Induced Plant Volatiles (HIPVs) into the air in response to damage inflicted by insects. It is known that songbirds use those compounds to locate their prey, but more recently the idea emerged that songbirds could also use those odours as cues in their reproductive decisions, as early spring HIPVs may contain information about the seasonal timing and abundance of insects. We exposed pre-breeding great tits (Parus major) to the odours of caterpillar-infested trees under controlled conditions, and monitored reproduction (timing of egg laying, number of eggs, egg size) and two of its main hormonal drivers (testosterone and 17β-estradiol in males and females, respectively). We found that females exposed to HIPVs did not advance their laying dates, nor laid larger clutches, or larger eggs compared to control females. 17β-estradiol concentrations in females were also similar between experimental and control birds. However, males exposed to HIPVs had higher testosterone concentrations during the egg-laying period. Our study supports the hypothesis that insectivorous songbirds are able to detect minute amounts of plant odours. The sole manipulation of plant scents was not sufficient to lure females into a higher reproductive investment, but males increased their reproductive effort in response to a novel source of information for seasonal breeding birds.

Complex relationships between climate and reproduction in a resident montane bird

Animals use climate-related environmental cues to fine-tune breeding timing and investment to match peak food availability. In birds, spring temperature is a commonly documented cue used to initiate breeding, but with global climate change, organisms are experiencing both directional changes in ambient temperatures and extreme year-to-year precipitation fluctuations. Montane environments exhibit complex climate patterns where temperatures and precipitation change along elevational gradients, and where exacerbated annual variation in precipitation has resulted in extreme swings between heavy snow and drought. We used 10 years of data to investigate how annual variation in climatic conditions is associated with differences in breeding phenology and reproductive performance in resident mountain chickadees (Poecile gambeli) at two elevations in the northern Sierra Nevada mountains, USA. Variation in spring temperature was not associated with differences in breeding phenology across elevations in our system. Greater snow accumulation was associated with later breeding initiation at high, but not low, elevation. Brood size was reduced under drought, but only at low elevation. Our data suggest complex relationships between climate and avian reproduction and point to autumn climate as important for reproductive performance, likely via its effect on phenology and abundance of invertebrates.

Bird populations most exposed to climate change are less sensitive to climatic variation

The phenology of many species shows strong sensitivity to climate change; however, with few large scale intra-specific studies it is unclear how such sensitivity varies over a species' range. We document large intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity to temperature using laying date information from 67 populations of two co-familial European songbirds, the great tit (Parus major) and blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus), covering a large part of their breeding range. Populations inhabiting deciduous habitats showed stronger phenological sensitivity than those in evergreen and mixed habitats. However, populations with higher sensitivity tended to have experienced less rapid change in climate over the past decades, such that populations with high phenological sensitivity will not necessarily exhibit the strongest phenological advancement. Our results show that to effectively assess the impact of climate change on phenology across a species' range it will be necessary to account for intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity, climate change exposure, and the ecological characteristics of a population.

Individual variation in reaction norms but no directional selection in reproductive plasticity of a wild passerine population

In the plant-insect-insectivorous bird food chain, directional changes in climate can result in mismatched phenology, potentially affecting selection pressures. Phenotypic plasticity in the timing of breeding, characterized by reaction norm slopes, can help maximize fitness when faced with earlier prey emergence. In temperate passerines, the timing of tree budburst influences food availability for chicks through caterpillar phenology and the resulting food abundance patterns. Thus, the timing of tree budburst might serve as a more direct proxy for the cue to time egg-laying. The evolutionary potential of breeding plasticity relies on heritable variation, which is based upon individual variation, yet studies on individual variation in plasticity are few. Here, we tested for the laying date-budburst date and the clutch size-laying date reaction norms, and examined 1) the among-individual variance in reaction norm intercepts and slopes; and 2) the selection differentials and gradients on these intercepts and slopes. Using long-term data of oak (genus Quercus) budburst and blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) reproduction, we applied within-subject centering to detect reaction norms, followed by bivariate random regression to quantify among-individual variance in reaction norm properties and their covariance with fitness. Individuals significantly differed in intercepts and slopes of both laying date-budburst date and clutch size-laying date reaction norms, and directional selection was present for an earlier laying date and a larger clutch size (intercepts), but not on plasticity (slopes). We found that individuals have their own regimes for adjusting egg-laying and clutch size. This study provides further support of individual variation of phenotypic plasticity in birds.

Phenotypic plasticity in response to climate change: the importance of cue variation

Phenotypic plasticity is a major mechanism of response to global change. However, current plastic responses will only remain adaptive under future conditions if informative environmental cues are still available. We briefly summarize current knowledge of the evolutionary origin and mechanistic underpinnings of environmental cues for phenotypic plasticity, before highlighting the potentially complex effects of global change on cue availability and reliability. We then illustrate some of these aspects with a case study, comparing plasticity of blue tit breeding phenology in two contrasted habitats: evergreen and deciduous forests. Using long-term datasets, we investigate the climatic factors linked to the breeding phenology of the birds and their main food source. Blue tits occupying different habitats differ extensively in the cues affecting laying date plasticity, as well as in the reliability of these cues as predictors of the putative driver of selective pressure, the date of caterpillar peak. The temporal trend for earlier laying date, detected only in the evergreen populations, is explained by increased temperature during their cue windows. Our results highlight the importance of integrating ecological mechanisms shaping variation in plasticity if we are to understand how global change will affect plasticity and its consequences for population biology. This article is part of the theme issue 'The role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change'.

Predicting climate-driven shifts in the breeding phenology of Varied Tits (Sittiparus various) in South Korean forests

Phenological shifts of plants and animals due to climate change can vary among regions and species, requiring study of local ecosystems to understand specific impacts. The reproductive timing of insectivorous songbirds in temperate forests is tightly synchronized with peak prey abundance, and thus they can be susceptible to such shift in timing. We aimed to investigate the effect of future climate change on the egg-laying phenology of the Varied Tit (Sittiparus various), which is common and widely distributed in South Korean forests. We developed the predictive model by investigating their egg-laying dates in response to spring temperatures along geographical gradients, and our model indicated that the tits lay eggs earlier when the average of daily mean and daily maximum temperatures rise. We predicted future shifts in egg-laying dates based on the most recent climate change model published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), under a scenario with no climate change mitigation and under a scenario with moderate mitigation. Under this outcome, this species might be unable to adapt to rapid climate change due to asynchrony with prey species during the reproductive period. If no mitigation is undertaken, our model predicts that egg-laying dates will be advanced by more than 10 days compared to the present in 83.58% of South Korea. However, even moderate mitigation will arrest this phenomenon and maintain present egg-laying dates. These results demonstrate the first quantitative assessment for the effect of warming temperatures on the phenological response of insectivorous songbirds in South Korea.

Warming springs and habitat alteration interact to impact timing of breeding and population dynamics in a migratory bird

In seasonal environments, increasing spring temperatures lead many taxa to advance the timing of reproduction. Species that do not may suffer lower fitness. We investigated why black-tailed godwits (Limosa limosa limosa), a ground-breeding agricultural grassland shorebird, have not advanced timing of reproduction during the last three decades in the face of climate change and human-induced habitat degradation. We used data from an 11-year field study to parameterize an Integral Projection Model to predict how spring temperature and habitat quality simultaneously influence the timing of reproduction and population dynamics. We found apparent selection for earlier laying, but not a correlation between the laying dates of parents and their offspring. Nevertheless, in warmer springs, laying dates of adults show a stronger positive correlation with laying date in previous springs than in cooler ones, and this leads us to predict a slight advance in the timing of reproduction if spring temperatures continue to increase. We also show that only in landscapes with low agricultural activity, the population can continue to act as a source. This study shows how climate change and declining habitat quality may enhance extinction risk.

Temperature and aridity determine body size conformity to Bergmann's rule independent of latitudinal differences in a tropical environment

Bergmann's rule, defined as the tendency for endotherms to be larger in colder environments, is a biophysical generalization of body size variation that is frequently tested along latitudinal gradients, even though latitude is only a proxy for temperature variation. We test whether variation in temperature and aridity determine avian body size conformity to Bergmann's rule independent of latitude differences, using the ubiquitous Common Bulbul Pycnonotus barbatus, along a West African environmental gradient. We trapped 538 birds in 22 locations between latitudes 6 and 13°N in Nigeria, and estimated average body surface area to mass ratio per location. We then modelled body surface to mass ratio using general linear models, with latitude, altitude and one of 19 bioclimatic variables extracted from http://www.worldclim.org/bioclim as predictors. We sequentially dropped latitude and altitude from each model to obtain the R 2 of the resultant models. Finally, we compared the R 2 of univariate models, where bioclimatic variables predicted body surface area to mass ratio significantly (14 out of 19), to multivariate models including latitude, altitude and a bioclimatic variable, using the Wilcoxon matched pairs test. We found that multivariate models did not perform better than univariate models with only bioclimatic variables. Six temperature and eight precipitation variables significantly predicted variation in body surface area to mass ratio between locations; in fact, 50% (seven out of 14) of these better explained variation in body surface area to mass ratio than the multivariate models. Birds showed a larger body surface area relative to body mass ratio in hotter environments independent of latitude or altitude, which conforms to Bergmann's rule. Yet, a combination of morphometric analyses and controlled temperature-exposure experiments is required to prove the proposed relationship between relative body surface area and thermoregulation in endotherms.

Increasing phenological asynchrony between spring green-up and arrival of migratory birds

Consistent with a warming climate, birds are shifting the timing of their migrations, but it remains unclear to what extent these shifts have kept pace with the changing environment. Because bird migration is primarily cued by annually consistent physiological responses to photoperiod, but conditions at their breeding grounds depend on annually variable climate, bird arrival and climate-driven spring events would diverge. We combined satellite and citizen science data to estimate rates of change in phenological interval between spring green-up and migratory arrival for 48 breeding passerine species across North America. Both arrival and green-up changed over time, usually in the same direction (earlier or later). Although birds adjusted their arrival dates, 9 of 48 species did not keep pace with rapidly changing green-up and across all species the interval between arrival and green-up increased by over half a day per year. As green-up became earlier in the east, arrival of eastern breeding species increasingly lagged behind green-up, whereas in the west—where green-up typically became later—birds arrived increasingly earlier relative to green-up. Our results highlight that phenologies of species and trophic levels can shift at different rates, potentially leading to phenological mismatches with negative fitness consequences.

Linking phenological events in migratory passerines with a changing climate: 50 years in the Laurel Highlands of Pennsylvania

Advanced timing of both seasonal migration and reproduction in birds has been strongly associated with a warming climate for many bird species. Phenological responses to climate linking these stages may ultimately impact fitness. We analyzed five decades of banding data from 17 migratory bird species to investigate 1) how spring arrival related to timing of breeding, 2) if the interval between arrival and breeding has changed with increasing spring temperatures, and 3) whether arrival timing or breeding timing best predicted local productivity. Four of 17 species, all mid- to long-distance migrants, hatched young earlier in years when migrants arrived earlier to the breeding grounds (~1:1 day advancement). The interval between arrival on breeding grounds and appearance of juveniles shortened with warmer spring temperatures for 12 species (1-6 days for every 1°C increase) and over time for seven species (1-8 days per decade), suggesting that some migratory passerines adapt to climate change by laying more quickly after arrival or reducing the time from laying to fledging. We found more support for the former, that the rate of reproductive advancement was higher than that for arrival in warm years. Timing of spring arrival and breeding were both poor predictors of avian productivity for most migrants analyzed. Nevertheless, we found evidence that fitness benefits may occur from shifts to earlier spring arrival for the multi-brooded Song Sparrow. Our results uniquely demonstrate that co-occurring avian species are phenologically plastic in their response to climate change on their breeding grounds. If migrants continue to show a weaker response to temperatures during migration than breeding, and the window between arrival and optimal breeding shortens further, biological constraints to plasticity may limit the ability of species to adapt successfully to future warming.

Scale-dependent phenological synchrony between songbirds and their caterpillar food source

In seasonal environments, the timing of reproduction has important fitness consequences. Our current understanding of the determinants of reproductive phenology in natural systems is limited because studies often ignore the spatial scale on which animals interact with their environment. When animals use a restricted amount of space and the phenology of resources is spatially variable, selection may favor sensitivity to small-scale environmental variation. Population-level studies of how songbirds track the changing phenology of their food source have been influential in explaining how populations adjust to changing climates but have largely ignored the spatial scale at which phenology varies. We explored whether individual great tits (Parus major) synchronize their breeding with phenological events in their local environment and investigated the spatial scale at which this occurs. We demonstrate marked variation in the timing of food availability, at a spatial scale relevant to individual birds, and that such local variation predicts the breeding phenology of individuals. Using a 45-year data set, we show that measures of vegetation phenology at very local scales are the most important predictors of timing of breeding within years, suggesting that birds can fine-tune their phenology to that of other trophic levels. Knowledge of the determinants of variation in reproductive behavior at different spatial scales is likely to be critical in understanding how selection operates on breeding phenology in natural populations.

Mid-winter temperatures, not spring temperatures, predict breeding phenology in the European starling Sturnus vulgaris

In many species, empirical data suggest that temperatures less than 1 month before breeding strongly influence laying date, consistent with predictions that short lag times between cue and response are more reliable, decreasing the chance of mismatch with prey. Here we show in European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) that mid-winter temperature ca 50-90 days before laying (8 January-22 February) strongly (r (2) = 0.89) predicts annual variation in laying date. Mid-winter temperature also correlated highly with relative clutch size: birds laid later, but laid larger clutches, in years when mid-winter temperatures were lower. Despite a high degree of breeding synchrony (mean laying date 5-13 April = ±4 days; 80% of nests laid within 4.8 days within year), European starlings show strong date-dependent variation in clutch size and productivity, but this appears to be mediated by a different temporal mechanism for integration of supplemental cue (temperature) information. We suggest the relationship between mid-winter temperature and breeding phenology might be indirect with both components correlating with a third factor: temperature-dependent development of the starling's insect (tipulid) prey. Mid-winter temperatures might set the trajectory of growth and final biomass of tipulid larvae, with this temperature cue providing starlings with information on breeding season prey availability (though exactly how remains unknown).

Is microevolution the only emergency exit in a warming world? Temperature influences egg laying but not its underlying mechanisms in great tits

Many bird species have advanced their seasonal timing in response to global warming, but we still know little about the causal effect of temperature. We carried out experiments in climate-controlled aviaries to investigate how temperature affects luteinizing hormone, prolactin, gonadal development, timing of egg laying and onset of moult in male and female great tits. We used both natural and artificial temperature patterns to identify the temperature characteristics that matter for birds. Our results show that temperature has a direct, causal effect on onset of egg-laying, and in particular, that it is the pattern of increase rather than the absolute temperature that birds use. Surprisingly, the pre-breeding increases in plasma LH, prolactin and in gonadal size are not affected by increasing temperature, nor do they correlate with the onset of laying. This suggests that the decision to start breeding and its regulatory mechanisms are fine-tuned by different factors. We also found similarities between siblings in the timing of both the onset of reproduction and associated changes in plasma LH, prolactin and gonadal development. In conclusion, while temperature affects the timing of egg laying, the neuroendocrine system does not seem to be regulated by moderate temperature changes. This lack of responsiveness may restrain the advance in the timing of breeding in response to climate change. But as there is heritable genetic variation on which natural selection can act, microevolution can take place, and may represent the only way to adapt to a warming world.

Variation in phenotypic plasticity and selection patterns in blue tit breeding time: between- and within-population comparisons

1. Phenotypic plasticity, the response of individual phenotypes to their environment, can allow organisms to cope with spatio-temporal variation in environmental conditions. Recent studies have shown that variation exists among individuals in their capacity to adjust their traits to environmental changes and that this individual plasticity can be under strong selection. Yet, little is known on the extent and ultimate causes of variation between populations and individuals in plasticity patterns. 2. In passerines, timing of breeding is a key life-history trait strongly related to fitness and is known to vary with the environment, but few studies have investigated the within-species variation in individual plasticity. 3. Here, we studied between- and within-population variation in breeding time, phenotypic plasticity and selection patterns for this trait in four Mediterranean populations of blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) breeding in habitats varying in structure and quality. 4. Although there was no significant warming over the course of the study, we found evidence for earlier onset of breeding in warmer years in all populations, with reduced plasticity in the less predictable environment. In two of four populations, there was significant inter-individual variation in plasticity for laying date. Interestingly, selection for earlier laying date was significant only in populations where there was no inter-individual differences in plasticity. 5. Our results show that generalization of plasticity patterns among populations of the same species might be challenging even at a small spatial scale and that the amount of within-individual variation in phenotypic plasticity may be linked to selective pressures acting on these phenotypic traits.

Spring phenology does not affect timing of reproduction in the great tit (Parus major)

Many seasonal breeders adjust the timing of reproduction in response to year-to-year variations in supplementary environmental cues, amongst which ambient temperature is thought to be most influential. However, it is possible that for species such as the great tit (Parus major L.), phenological cues from sprouting vegetation and the consequent abundance of invertebrate prey, although dependent on temperature, may provide supplementary environmental cues per se. This hypothesis was investigated in breeding pairs of great tits kept in outdoor aviaries. In spring, experimental pairs were provided with access to leafing birch branches and caterpillars as a visual food cue, while control pairs were provided with non-leafing branches. Observations were made on the onset of laying and on concentrations of plasma luteinizing hormone (LH) at regular intervals to monitor changes in reproductive function. The onset of egg laying was not advanced by the presence of leafing branches and caterpillars. LH concentrations increased during the course of the study, but phenological cues did not affect plasma LH levels in females and males. Early spring vegetation, such as the leafing of birch branches, and the appearance of caterpillar prey do not appear to play a significant role in fine-tuning the onset of egg laying in great tits.

A test of the mismatch hypothesis: How is timing of reproduction related to food abundance in an aerial insectivore?

In seasonal environments, vertebrates are generally thought to time their reproduction so offspring are raised during the peak of food abundance. The mismatch hypothesis predicts that reproductive success is maximized when animals synchronize their reproduction with the food supply. Understanding the mechanisms influencing the timing of reproduction has taken on new urgency as climate change is altering environmental conditions during reproduction, and there is concern that species will not be able to synchronize their reproduction with changing food supplies. Using data from five sites over 24 years (37 site-years), we tested the assumptions of the mismatch hypothesis in the Tree Swallow (Tachycineta bicolor), a widespread aerial insectivore, whose timing of egg-laying has shifted earlier by nine days since the 1950s. Contrary to the mismatch hypothesis, the start of egg-laying was strongly related to food abundance (flying insect biomass) during the laying period and not to timing of the seasonal peak in food supply. In fact, food abundance generally continued to increase throughout the breeding season, and there was no evidence of selection based on the mistiming of laying with the seasonal peak of food abundance. In contrast, there was selection for laying earlier, because birds that lay earlier generally have larger clutches and fledge more young. Overall, initial reproductive decisions in this insectivore appear to be based on the food supply during egg formation and not the nestling period. Thus, the mismatch hypothesis may not apply in environments with relatively constant or abundant food throughout the breeding season. Although climate change is often associated with earlier reproduction, our results caution that it is not necessarily driven by selection for synchronized reproduction.