Density-dependent nest predation in waterfowl: the relative importance of nest density versus nest dispersion

Density-dependence produces spurious relationships among demographic parameters in a harvested species

Harvest of wild organisms is an important component of human culture, economy, and recreation, but can also put species at risk of extinction. Decisions that guide successful management actions therefore rely on the ability of researchers to link changes in demographic processes to the anthropogenic actions or environmental changes that underlie variation in demographic parameters. Ecologists often use population models or maximum sustained yield curves to estimate the impacts of harvest on wildlife and fish populations. Applications of these models usually focus exclusively on the impact of harvest and often fail to consider adequately other potential, often collinear, mechanistic drivers of the observed relationships between harvest and demographic rates. In this study, we used an integrated population model and long-term data (1973-2016) to examine the relationships among hunting and natural mortality, the number of hunters, habitat conditions, and population size of blue-winged teal Spatula discors, an abundant North American dabbling duck with a relatively fast-paced life history strategy. Over the last two and a half decades of the study, teal abundance tripled, hunting mortality probability increased slightly ( <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:semantics><mml:mrow><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.02</mml:mn></mml:mrow> </mml:semantics> </mml:math> ), and natural mortality probability increased substantially ( <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:semantics><mml:mrow><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.1</mml:mn></mml:mrow> </mml:semantics> </mml:math> ) at greater population densities. We demonstrate strong density-dependent effects on natural mortality and fecundity as population density increased, indicative of compensatory harvest mortality and compensatory natality. Critically, an analysis that only assessed the relationship between survival and hunting mortality would spuriously indicate depensatory mortality due to multicollinearity between abundance, natural mortality and hunting mortality. Our findings demonstrate that models that only consider the direct effect of hunting on survival or natural mortality can fail to accurately assess the mechanistic impact of hunting on population dynamics due to multicollinearity among demographic drivers. This multicollinearity limits inference and may have strong impacts on applied management actions globally.

Nest density, egg conspicuity, vegetation structure and seasonality affect artificial nest predation in the Brazilian Cerrado

Nest predators use visual, acoustic and chemical cues to locate nests. In the Neotropics, predation is high being the main cause of nest failure. Despite that, it is still not completely clear what kind of information predators are using to find nests or whether predators respond differently according to habitat characteristics. Here, we executed an experimental manipulation to investigate how different ecological factors influence nest predation probability. We hypothesised that egg conspicuousness, nest clustering and a more open vegetation structure would increase nest predation probability, and that nest predation would be higher during the breeding season of most avian species in the region. We used artificial nests baited with plasticine and quail eggs (Coturnix coturnix), manipulated egg coloration and nest density. Artificial nests were distributed over forest and savanna-like vegetations. Overall predation rate was 40.9%. We found that nests baited with conspicuous eggs, located in open habitats, at higher densities and during the dry period were more predated. Results suggest that main predators must be visually orientated, and that egg crypsis is an important trait for open-nest species in the area. Moreover, a higher nest density may affect predator behaviour, favouring an increase in nest searching, which may be facilitated in open habitats.

Effect of nest age and habitat variables on nest survival in Marsh Harrier (Circus aeruginosus) in a fishpond habitat

Background

One important anti-predator strategy adopted by birds involves nest site selection and timing of breeding. Nest-site selection by marsh-nesting birds often involves nest concealment and water depth as key features influencing nest survival. Marsh Harrier (Circus aeruginosus) is an obligate ground nester, which sets it apart from other raptors. The aim of the present study was to identify for the first time possible temporal and habitat factors affecting nest survival in Marsh Harrier. Understanding features which affect nest survival are essential for assessing relevant conservation strategies.

Methods

To understand the relative contributions of different temporal and habitat variables to brood losses, it is useful to determine the daily survival rate (DSR). We examined 82 Marsh Harrier nests located on fishponds in eastern Poland, where predation is the main cause of nest loss. Six habitat variables were measured for each active nest. DSR was calculated using known-fate models with the RMark package.

Results

The best-supported model predicted that DSR decreased with nest age and was positively affected by the water depth and the diameter of reed stems, but not by the height or density of vegetation at the nest site. The distances of nests to the fishpond dyke and to open water received no support in the models. The chances of nest survival were lower if a neighbouring nest had been depredated. This result suggests that the Marsh Harrier is more susceptible to mammalian than avian predation and confirms the high level of predator pressure in fishpond habitats.

Predation-related costs and benefits of conspecific attraction in songbirds--an agent-based approach

Songbirds that follow a conspecific attraction strategy in the habitat selection process prefer to settle in habitat patches already occupied by other individuals. This largely affects the patterns of their spatio-temporal distribution and leads to clustered breeding. Although making informed settlement decisions is expected to be beneficial for individuals, such territory clusters may potentially provide additional fitness benefits (e.g., through the dilution effect) or costs (e.g., possibly facilitating nest localization if predators respond functionally to prey distribution). Thus, we hypothesized that the fitness consequences of following a conspecific attraction strategy may largely depend on the composition of the predator community. We developed an agent-based model in which we simulated the settling behavior of birds that use a conspecific attraction strategy and breed in a multi-predator landscape with predators that exhibited different foraging strategies. Moreover, we investigated whether Bayesian updating of prior settlement decisions according to the perceived predation risk may improve the fitness of birds that rely on conspecific cues. Our results provide evidence that the fitness consequences of conspecific attraction are predation-related. We found that in landscapes dominated by predators able to respond functionally to prey distribution, clustered breeding led to fitness costs. However, this cost could be reduced if birds performed Bayesian updating of prior settlement decisions and perceived nesting with too many neighbors as a threat. Our results did not support the hypothesis that in landscapes dominated by incidental predators, clustered breeding as a byproduct of conspecific attraction provides fitness benefits through the dilution effect. We suggest that this may be due to the spatial scale of songbirds’ aggregative behavior. In general, we provide evidence that when considering the fitness consequences of conspecific attraction for songbirds, one should expect a trade-off between the benefits of making informed decisions and the costs of clustering.

Building the foundation for international conservation planning for breeding ducks across the U.S. and Canadian border

We used publically available data on duck breeding distribution and recently compiled geospatial data on upland habitat and environmental conditions to develop a spatially explicit model of breeding duck populations across the entire Prairie Pothole Region (PPR). Our spatial population models were able to identify key areas for duck conservation across the PPR and predict between 62.1-79.1% (68.4% avg.) of the variation in duck counts by year from 2002-2010. The median difference in observed vs. predicted duck counts at a transect segment level was 4.6 ducks. Our models are the first seamless spatially explicit models of waterfowl abundance across the entire PPR and represent an initial step toward joint conservation planning between Prairie Pothole and Prairie Habitat Joint Ventures. Our work demonstrates that when spatial and temporal variation for highly mobile birds is incorporated into conservation planning it will likely increase the habitat area required to support defined population goals. A major goal of the current North American Waterfowl Management Plan and subsequent action plan is the linking of harvest and habitat management. We contend incorporation of spatial aspects will increase the likelihood of coherent joint harvest and habitat management decisions. Our results show at a minimum, it is possible to produce spatially explicit waterfowl abundance models that when summed across survey strata will produce similar strata level population estimates as the design-based Waterfowl Breeding Pair and Habitat Survey (r2 = 0.977). This is important because these design-based population estimates are currently used to set duck harvest regulations and to set duck population and habitat goals for the North American Waterfowl Management Plan. We hope this effort generates discussion on the important linkages between spatial and temporal variation in population size, and distribution relative to habitat quantity and quality when linking habitat and population goals across this important region.

Directional selection and repeatability in nest-site preferences of Semipalmated Plovers (Charadrius semipalmatus)

Using marked individuals, we assessed directional selection and repeatability of nest-site characteristics of Semipalmated Plovers (Charadrius semipalmatus Bonaparte, 1825) on Akimiski Island, Nunavut, Canada, 2002–2005, to test the hypothesis that long- and short-term selection patterns were in the same direction. Plovers placed nests in microsites (1 m2 scale) with more pebbles and less bare mud and vegetation than what was available in the environment, indicating long-term selection for these features. Linear (directional selection) effects were stronger than quadratic (stabilizing or disruptive) effects in 3 of 4 years and in the analysis of all data. In the combined 4-year sample, significant directional selection occurred in the opposite direction than that present when comparing used and available sites. Birds with more bare mud and vegetation and fewer pebbles at their nest sites were more successful than birds with pebbled nest sites. Repeatability of nest-site preferences was low and nonsignificant. Neither successful nor unsuccessful pairs chose significantly different nest-site characteristics in subsequent nesting attempts, but options for moving to different nest sites may be limited by interannual site fidelity. Wide individual variability and low repeatability of nest-site characteristics suggests behavioral flexibility in the population. Applying quantitative genetic techniques to patterns of habitat selection may allow researchers to predict the degree to which animals can adjust to changing environments.