|
1
|
Messerman AF, Clause AG, Gray LN, Krkošek M, Rollins HB, Trenham PC, Shaffer HB, Searcy CA. Applying stochastic and Bayesian integral projection modeling to amphibian population viability analysis. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2023; 33:e2783. [PMID: 36478484 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2783] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2022] [Revised: 08/08/2022] [Accepted: 10/17/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
Integral projection models (IPMs) can estimate the population dynamics of species for which both discrete life stages and continuous variables influence demographic rates. Stochastic IPMs for imperiled species, in turn, can facilitate population viability analyses (PVAs) to guide conservation decision-making. Biphasic amphibians are globally distributed, often highly imperiled, and ecologically well suited to the IPM approach. Herein, we present a stochastic size- and stage-structured IPM for a biphasic amphibian, the U.S. federally threatened California tiger salamander (CTS) (Ambystoma californiense). This Bayesian model reveals that CTS population dynamics show greatest elasticity to changes in juvenile and metamorph growth and that populations are likely to experience rapid growth at low density. We integrated this IPM with climatic drivers of CTS demography to develop a PVA and examined CTS extinction risk under the primary threats of habitat loss and climate change. The PVA indicated that long-term viability is possible with surprisingly high (20%-50%) terrestrial mortality but simultaneously identified likely minimum terrestrial buffer requirements of 600-1000 m while accounting for numerous parameter uncertainties through the Bayesian framework. These analyses underscore the value of stochastic and Bayesian IPMs for understanding both climate-dependent taxa and those with cryptic life histories (e.g., biphasic amphibians) in service of ecological discovery and biodiversity conservation. In addition to providing guidance for CTS recovery, the contributed IPM and PVA supply a framework for applying these tools to investigations of ecologically similar species.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Adam G Clause
- Urban Nature Research Center & Department of Herpetology, Natural History Museum of Los Angeles County, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Levi N Gray
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Buffalo, Buffalo, New York, USA
| | - Martin Krkošek
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Hilary B Rollins
- Department of Biology, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio, USA
| | - Peter C Trenham
- Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, State College, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - H Bradley Shaffer
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, La Kretz Center for California Conservation Science, and Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, University of California, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | | |
Collapse
|
|
2
|
Zakharova L, Meyer K, Seifan M. Trait-based modelling in ecology: A review of two decades of research. Ecol Modell 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.05.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/26/2022]
|