The redistribution of non-breeding dunlins in response to the post-DDT recovery of falcons

Avian wings can lengthen rather than shorten in response to increased migratory predation danger

Increasing predation danger can select for safety-enhancing modifications to prey morphology. Here, we document the multi-decade wing lengthening of a Pacific flyway migrant, the western sandpiper (Calidris mauri), and contrast this with contemporaneous wing shortening of the closely related semipalmated sandpiper (C. pusilla) on the Atlantic flyway. We measured >12,000 southbound western sandpipers captured from 1978 to 2020 at a major stopover site in British Columbia. Wing length increased at 0.074 mm year-1 (SE = 0.017; p < .0003) for adults, and 0.087 mm year-1 (SE = 0.029; p < .007) for juveniles. These rates are of similarly large magnitude (4%-5% overall), but opposite in direction, to the rate we previously reported for semipalmated sandpiper adults (-0.103 mm year-1). In both species, the change is specific to wings rather than being part of a general body size change. We interpret both trends as responses to the ongoing strong increase of peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus) populations since the mid-1970s, an important predator encountered by these species in contrasting ways during migration. Western sandpipers and peregrine migrations have temporal and spatial overlap. Longer wings enhance migratory speed and efficiency, enabling western sandpipers to decrease overlap by advancing to safer zones ahead of falcon passage. In contrast, semipalmated sandpipers primarily encounter peregrines as residents at migratory staging sites. Shorter wings improve acceleration and agility, helping migrants to escape attacks. Juvenile western sandpiper wing length also shows a component additive to the lengthening trend, shifting between years at 0.055 mm day-1 with the highly variable snowmelt date, with wings shorter following early springs. On the Pacific flyway, the timing of peregrine southward passage advances with snowmelt, increasing the relative exposure of juveniles to post-migratory resident peregrines. We interpret this annual wing length adjustment as an induced defense, made possible because snowmelt timing is a reliable cue to danger in the upcoming migration.

Seasonal and inter-annual variation in exposure to peregrines (Falco peregrinus) for southbound western sandpipers (Calidris mauri)

BACKGROUND

The western sandpiper (Calidris mauri) is an early southbound migrant species in North America. The 'peregrine avoidance' hypothesis proposes that this timing evolved to reduce exposure to their main predator, the peregrine (Falco peregrinus), along the Pacific flyway.

METHODS

I evaluate this hypothesis based on 16 years of near-daily (June - October) measures of peregrine presence made on the Fraser River estuary, a major stopover in the Pacific northwest.

RESULTS

Exposure to peregrines is lowest for the earliest southbound western sandpipers, and rises steeply as peregrines en route from northern breeding areas begin to arrive in late July or August. Peregrine arrival timing varies greatly between years, shifting in step with the onset of spring along coastal Alaska. Peregrine presence on the Fraser estuary on any date is higher in years with earlier spring onset. On the median adult sandpiper passage date (day-of-year 198) this increases 17-fold over the inter-annual range between the earliest and latest peregrine arrival dates.

CONCLUSION

The pattern of strong and predictable changes in the seasonal pattern of danger quantified here provides a further test of the hypothesis that danger affects migratory timing. Western sandpipers appear to anticipate the exposure level of southward migration, perhaps because they are able to observe spring onset on their Alaskan breeding grounds. They adjust the duration of parental care and length of the breeding season to keep the date of migratory departure from the Arctic relatively invariant in spite of large interannual variation in spring onset. While underway they also adjust aspects of migratory behavior. These observations support the 'peregrine avoidance' hypothesis, and suggest that western sandpipers are able to counter, at least partially, the higher migratory danger of early spring years.

The annual cycle for whimbrel populations using the Western Atlantic Flyway

Many long-distance migratory birds use habitats that are scattered across continents and confront hazards throughout the annual cycle that may be population-limiting. Identifying where and when populations spend their time is fundamental to effective management. We tracked 34 adult whimbrels (Numenius phaeopus) from two breeding populations (Mackenzie Delta and Hudson Bay) with satellite transmitters to document the structure of their annual cycles. The two populations differed in their use of migratory pathways and their seasonal schedules. Mackenzie Delta whimbrels made long (22,800 km) loop migrations with different autumn and spring routes. Hudson Bay whimbrels made shorter (17,500 km) and more direct migrations along the same route during autumn and spring. The two populations overlap on the winter grounds and within one spring staging area. Mackenzie Delta whimbrels left the breeding ground, arrived on winter grounds, left winter grounds and arrived on spring staging areas earlier compared to whimbrels from Hudson Bay. For both populations, migration speed was significantly higher during spring compared to autumn migration. Faster migration was achieved by having fewer and shorter stopovers en route. We identified five migratory staging areas including four that were used during autumn and two that were used during spring. Whimbrels tracked for multiple years had high (98%) fidelity to staging areas. We documented dozens of locations where birds stopped for short periods along nearly all migration routes. The consistent use of very few staging areas suggests that these areas are integral to the annual cycle of both populations and have high conservation value.

The demographic causes of population change vary across four decades in a long-lived shorebird

Understanding which factors cause populations to decline begins with identifying which parts of the life cycle, and which vital rates, have changed over time. However, in a world where humans are altering the environment both rapidly and in different ways, the demographic causes of decline likely vary over time. Identifying temporal variation in demographic causes of decline is crucial to assure that conservation actions target current and not past threats. However, this has rarely been studied as it requires long time series. Here we investigate how the demography of a long‐lived shorebird (the Eurasian Oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus) has changed in the past four decades, resulting in a shift from stable dynamics to strong declines (−9% per year), and recently back to a modest decline. Since individuals of this species are likely to respond differently to environmental change, we captured individual heterogeneity through three state variables: age, breeding status, and lay date (using integral projection models). Timing of egg‐laying explained significant levels of variation in reproduction, with a parabolic relationship of maximal productivity near the average lay date. Reproduction explained most variation in population growth rates, largely due to poor nest success and hatchling survival. However, the demographic causes of decline have also been in flux over the last three decades: hatchling survival was low in the 2000s but improved in the 2010s, while adult survival declined in the 2000s and remains low today. Overall, the joint action of several key demographic variables explain the decline of the oystercatcher, and improvements in a single vital rate cannot halt the decline. Conservations actions will thus need to address threats occurring at different stages of the oystercatcher's life cycle. The dynamic nature of the threat landscape is further supported by the finding that the average individual no longer has the highest performance in the population, and emphasizes how individual heterogeneity in vital rates can play an important role in modulating population growth rates. Our results indicate that understanding population decline in the current era requires disentangling demographic mechanisms, individual variability, and their changes over time.

Semi-intensive shrimp farms as experimental arenas for the study of predation risk from falcons to shorebirds

Varying environmental conditions and energetic demands can affect habitat use by predators and their prey. Anthropogenic habitats provide an opportunity to document both predation events and foraging activity by prey and therefore enable an empirical evaluation of how prey cope with trade-offs between starvation and predation risk in environments of variable foraging opportunities and predation danger. Here, we use seven years of observational data of peregrine falcons Falco peregrinus and shorebirds at a semi-intensive shrimp farm to determine how starvation and predation risk vary for shorebirds under a predictable variation in foraging opportunities. Attack rate (mean 0.1 attacks/hr, equating 1 attack every ten hours) was positively associated with the total foraging area available for shorebirds at the shrimp farm throughout the harvesting period, with tidal amplitude at the adjacent mudflat having a strong nonlinear (quadratic) effect. Hunt success (mean 14%) was higher during low tides and declined as the target flocks became larger. Finally, individual shorebird vigilance behaviors were more frequent when birds foraged in smaller flocks at ponds with poorer conditions. Our results provide empirical evidence of a risk threshold modulated by tidal conditions at the adjacent wetlands, where shorebirds trade-off risk and rewards to decide to avoid or forage at the shrimp farm (a potentially dangerous habitat) depending on their need to meet daily energy requirements. We propose that semi-intensive shrimp farms serve as ideal "arenas" for studying predator-prey dynamics of shorebirds and falcons, because harvest operations and regular tidal cycles create a mosaic of foraging patches with predictable food supply. In addition, the relatively low hunt success suggests that indirect effects associated with enhanced starvation risk are important in shorebird life-history decisions.

Whimbrel populations differ in trans-atlantic pathways and cyclone encounters

Each year hundreds of millions of birds cross the Atlantic Ocean during the peak of tropical cyclone activity. The extent and consequences of migrant-storm interactions remain unknown. We tracked whimbrels from two populations (Mackenzie Delta; Hudson Bay) to examine overlap between migration routes and storm activity and both the frequency and consequence of storm encounters. Here we show that Mackenzie Delta and Hudson Bay whimbrels follow different routes across the ocean and experience dramatically different rates of storm encounters. Mackenzie Delta whimbrels departed North America from Atlantic Canada, made long (\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\bar{x}$$\end{document}x¯ = 5440 ± 120.3 km) nonstop flights far out to sea that took several days (\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\bar{x}$$\end{document}x¯ = 6.1 ± 0.18) to complete and encountered storms during 3 of 22 crossings. Hudson Bay whimbrels departed North America from the south Atlantic Coast, made shorter (\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\bar{x}$$\end{document}x¯ = 3643 ± 196.2 km) nonstop flights across the Caribbean Basin that took less time (\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\bar{x}$$\end{document}x¯ = 4.5 ± 0.29) to complete and encountered storms during 13 of 18 crossings. More than half of Hudson Bay storm encounters resulted in groundings on Caribbean islands. Grounded birds required longer (\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\bar{x}$$\end{document}x¯ = 30.4 ± 5.32 days) to complete trans-Atlantic crossings and three were lost including 2 to hunters and 1 to a predator. One of the Mackenzie Delta whimbrels was lost at sea while crossing the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Whimbrels use two contrasting strategies to cross the Atlantic including (1) a long nonstop flight around the core of storm activity with a low likelihood of encountering storms but no safety net and (2) a shorter flight through the heart of Hurricane Alley with a high likelihood of encountering storms and a safety network of islands to use in the event of an encounter. Demographic consequences of storm encounters will likely play a role in the ongoing evolution of trans-Atlantic migration pathways as global temperatures continue to rise.

Influence of introduced peregrine falcons on the distribution of red knots within a spring staging site

Predator recovery driven by single-species management approaches may lead to conservation conflicts between recovered predators and prey species of conservation concern. As part of an aggressive recovery plan, the Eastern Peregrine Falcon Recovery Team released (1975-1985) 307 captive-reared peregrine falcons (Falco peregrinus) and successfully established a breeding population within the mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain, a physiographic region with no historic breeding population and a critical spring staging area for migratory shorebirds. We examined the influence of resident falcons on the distribution of foraging red knots during spring migration. We conducted weekly aerial surveys (2006-2009) along the Virginia barrier islands during the spring staging period (25 April- 6 June) to map foraging red knots (Calidris canutus) and evaluated the influence of proximity (0-3, 3-6, >6 km) of beaches to active peregrine falcon nests on knot density (birds/km). Accumulated use of beaches throughout the season by red knots was significantly influenced by proximity of beaches to active falcon nests such that mean density was more than 6 fold higher on beaches that were >6 km compared to beaches that were only 0-3 km from active eyries. Whether or not an eyrie was used in a given year had a significant influence on the use of associated close (0-3 km) beaches. From 6.5 to 64 fold more knots used beaches when associated eyries were not active compared to when they were active depending on the specific site. Historically, red knots and other migratory shorebirds would have enjoyed a peregrine-free zone within this critical staging site. The establishment of a dense breeding population of falcons within the area represents a new hazard for the knot population.

Risk allocation: acute and chronic predator exposure have contrasting effects on Song Sparrow (Melospiza melodia) singing behaviour

Increasing the danger posed by predators may cause prey animals to alter their behaviour. For example, they may be more vigilant and so feed more slowly. Breeding male Song Sparrows (Melospiza melodia (A. Wilson, 1810)) spend much time in conspicuous, loud song, which is an important behaviour for territorial defense and for mate attraction. We measured their singing behaviour in relation to both chronic (active Cooper’s Hawk (Accipiter cooperii (Bonaparte, 1828)) nest nearby) and acute (playback of hawk calls) predator exposure. We found that proximity to a Cooper’s Hawk nest had little or no influence. In contrast, the response to acute exposure was strong and immediate: Song Sparrows reduced the song rate and the proportion of time spent singing, lowered perch height, and increased concealment. The decline in the amount of song during the few minutes following playback attributable to the acute exposure was 34.6%. We analyze these results in light of theories about how animals adjust risk taking in response to predation danger. Given that the numbers of their predators have risen steadily for the past few decades and affect the level of singing, we consider the implications for trend estimates of songbird populations based on surveys using auditory methods.

Long-term continental changes in wing length, but not bill length, of a long-distance migratory shorebird

We compiled a >50‐year record of morphometrics for semipalmated sandpipers (Calidris pusilla), a shorebird species with a Nearctic breeding distribution and intercontinental migration to South America. Our data included >57,000 individuals captured 1972–2015 at five breeding locations and three major stopover sites, plus 139 museum specimens collected in earlier decades. Wing length increased by ca. 1.5 mm (>1%) prior to 1980, followed by a decrease of 3.85 mm (nearly 4%) over the subsequent 35 years. This can account for previously reported changes in metrics at a migratory stopover site from 1985 to 2006. Wing length decreased at a rate of 1,098 darwins, or 0.176 haldanes, within the ranges of other field studies of phenotypic change. Bill length, in contrast, showed no consistent change over the full period of our study. Decreased body size as a universal response of animal populations to climate warming, and several other potential mechanisms, are unable to account for the increasing and decreasing wing length pattern observed. We propose that the post‐WWII near‐extirpation of falcon populations and their post‐1973 recovery driven by the widespread use and subsequent limitation on DDT in North America selected initially for greater flight efficiency and latterly for greater agility. This predation danger hypothesis accounts for many features of the morphometric data and deserves further investigation in this and other species.