Measuring the demographic impact of conspecific negative density dependence

High response diversity and conspecific density-dependence, not species interactions, drive dynamics of coral reef fish communities

Species-to-species and species-to-environment interactions are key drivers of community dynamics. Disentangling these drivers in species-rich assemblages is challenging due to the high number of potentially interacting species (the 'curse of dimensionality'). We develop a process-based model that quantifies how intraspecific and interspecific interactions, and species' covarying responses to environmental fluctuations, jointly drive community dynamics. We fit the model to reef fish abundance time series from 41 reefs of Australia's Great Barrier Reef. We found that fluctuating relative abundances are driven by species' heterogenous responses to environmental fluctuations, whereas interspecific interactions are negligible. Species differences in long-term average abundances are driven by interspecific variation in the magnitudes of both conspecific density-dependence and density-independent growth rates. This study introduces a novel approach to overcoming the curse of dimensionality, which reveals highly individualistic dynamics in coral reef fish communities that imply a high level of niche structure.

Modelling how negative plant-soil feedbacks across life stages affect the spatial patterning of trees

In this work, we theoretically explore how litter decomposition processes and soil-borne pathogens contribute to negative plant-soil feedbacks, in particular in transient and stable spatial organisation of tropical forest trees and seedlings known as Janzen-Connell distributions. By considering soil-borne pathogens and autotoxicity both separately and in combination in a phenomenological model, we can study how both factors may affect transient dynamics and emerging Janzen-Connell distributions. We also identify parameter regimes associated with different long-term behaviours. Moreover, we compare how the strength of negative plant-soil feedbacks was mediated by tree germination and growth strategies, using a combination of analytical approaches and numerical simulations. Our interdisciplinary investigation, motivated by an ecological question, allows us to construct important links between local feedbacks, spatial self-organisation, and community assembly. Our model analyses contribute to understanding the drivers of biodiversity in tropical ecosystems, by disentangling the abilities of two potential mechanisms to generate Janzen-Connell distributions. Furthermore, our theoretical results may help guiding future field data analyses by identifying spatial signatures in adult tree and seedling distribution data that may reflect the presence of particular plant-soil feedback mechanisms.

The effects of density dependence and habitat preference on species coexistence and relative abundance

In plant communities, some mechanisms maintain differences in species' abundances, while other mechanisms promote coexistence. Asymmetry in conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD) and/or habitat preference is hypothesized to shape relative species abundance, whereas community compensatory trends (CCTs) induced by community-level CNDD and heterospecific facilitation are hypothesized to promote coexistence. We use survey data from three 1-ha permanent dynamic plots in a subtropical forest over the course of a decade to find out which of these processes are important and at which life-history stages (the seedling, sapling, and juvenile stages) they exert their effects. CNDD was not related to abundance in any of the life-history stages. Suitable habitats positively influenced plant abundance at all tested life stages, but especially so for juveniles. Community-level CNDD of seedling neighbors was detected at the seedling stage, while heterospecific facilitation was detected across all tested life-history stages. A CCT in seedling survival was detected, but there was no evidence for such trends across the other life-history stages. Altogether, our results suggest that habitat specificity increases the rarity of species, whereas a CCT at the seedling stage, which is likely to be induced by CNDD and heterospecific facilitation, enables such species to maintain their populations.

Bias in the detection of negative density dependence in plant communities

Regression dilution is a statistical inference bias that causes underestimation of the strength of dependency between two variables when the predictors are error-prone proxies (EPPs). EPPs are widely used in plant community studies focused on negative density-dependence (NDD) to quantify competitive interactions. Because of the nature of the bias, conspecific NDD is often overestimated in recruitment analyses, and in some cases, can be erroneously detected when absent. In contrast, for survival analyses, EPPs typically cause NDD to be underestimated, but underestimation is more severe for abundant species and for heterospecific effects, thereby generating spurious negative relationships between the strength of NDD and the abundances of con- and heterospecifics. This can explain why many studies observed rare species to suffer more severely from conspecific NDD, and heterospecific effects to be disproportionally smaller than conspecific effects. In general, such species-dependent bias is often related to traits associated with likely mechanisms of NDD, which creates false patterns and complicates the ecological interpretation of the analyses. Classic examples taken from literature and simulations demonstrate that this bias has been pervasive, which calls into question the emerging paradigm that intraspecific competition has been demonstrated by direct field measurements to be generally stronger than interspecific competition.

Abundance-dependent effects of neighbourhood dissimilarity and growth rank reversal in a neotropical forest

Why tropical forests harbour an exceptional number of species with striking differences in abundances remains an open question. We propose a theoretical framework to address this question in which rare species may have different extirpation risks depending on species ranks in tree growth and sensitivities to neighbourhood interactions. To evaluate the framework, we studied tree growth and its responses to neighbourhood dissimilarity (ND) in traits and phylogeny for 146 species in a neotropical forest. We found that tree growth was positively related to ND, and common species were more strongly affected by ND than rare species, which may help delay dominance of common species. Rare species grew more slowly at the community-wide average ND than common species. But rare species grew faster when common species tended to dominate locally, which may help reduce extirpation risk of rare species. Our study highlights that tree growth rank among species depends on their responses to neighbourhood interactions, which can be important in fostering diversity maintenance in tropical forests.

Distance-dependent seedling mortality and long-term spacing dynamics in a neotropical forest community

Negative distance dependence (NDisD), or reduced recruitment near adult conspecifics, is thought to explain the astounding diversity of tropical forests. While many studies show greater mortality at near vs. far distances from adults, these studies do not seek to track changes in the peak seedling curve over time, thus limiting our ability to link NDisD to coexistence. Using census data collected over 12 years from central Panama in conjunction with spatial mark-connection functions, we show evidence for NDisD for many species, and find that the peak seedling curve shifts away from conspecific adults over time. We find wide variation in the strength of NDisD, which was correlated with seed size and canopy position, but other life-history traits showed no relationship with variation in NDisD mortality. Our results document shifts in peak seedling densities over time, thus providing evidence for the hypothesized spacing mechanism necessary for diversity maintenance in tropical forests.