Bayesian characterization of uncertainty in species interaction strengths

High variation in handling times confers 35-year stability to predator feeding rates despite community change

Historical resurveys of ecological communities are important for placing the structure of modern ecosystems in context. Rarely, however, are snapshot surveys alone sufficient for providing direct insight into the rates of the ecological processes underlying community functioning, either now or in the past. In this study, I used a statistically reasoned observational approach to estimate the feeding rates of a New Zealand intertidal predator, Haustrum haustorium, using diet surveys performed at several sites by Robert Paine in 1968-1969 and by me in 2004. Comparisons between time periods reveal a remarkable consistency in the predator's prey-specific feeding rates, which contrasts with the changes I observed in prey abundances, the predator's body-size distribution, and the prey's proportional contributions to the predator's apparent diet. Although these and additional changes in the predator's per-capita attack rates seem to show adaptive changes in its prey preferences, they do not. Rather, feeding-rate stability is an inherently statistical consequence of the predator's high among-prey variation in handling times which determine the length of time that feeding events will remain detectable to observers performing diet surveys. Though understudied, similarly high among-prey variation in handling (or digestion) times is evident in many predator species throughout the animal kingdom. The resultant disconnect between a predator's apparent diet and its actual feeding rates suggests that much of the temporal, biogeographic, and seemingly context-dependent variation that is often perceived in community structure, predator diets, and food-web topology may be of less functional consequence than assumed. Qualitative changes in ecological pattern need not represent qualitative changes in ecological process.

Informing management decisions for ecological networks, using dynamic models calibrated to noisy time-series data

Well-intentioned environmental management can backfire, causing unforeseen damage. To avoid this, managers and ecologists seek accurate predictions of the ecosystem-wide impacts of interventions, given small and imprecise datasets, which is an incredibly difficult task. We generated and analysed thousands of ecosystem population time series to investigate whether fitted models can aid decision-makers to select interventions. Using these time-series data (sparse and noisy datasets drawn from deterministic Lotka-Volterra systems with two to nine species, of known network structure), dynamic model forecasts of whether a species' future population will be positively or negatively affected by rapid eradication of another species were correct > 70% of the time. Although 70% correct classifications is only slightly better than an uninformative prediction (50%), this classification accuracy can be feasibly improved by increasing monitoring accuracy and frequency. Our findings suggest that models may not need to produce well-constrained predictions before they can inform decisions that improve environmental outcomes.

Food-web interaction strength distributions are conserved by greater variation between than within predator-prey pairs

Species interactions in food webs are usually recognized as dynamic, varying across species, space, and time because of biotic and abiotic drivers. Yet food webs also show emergent properties that appear consistent, such as a skewed frequency distribution of interaction strengths (many weak, few strong). Reconciling these two properties requires an understanding of the variation in pairwise interaction strengths and its underlying mechanisms. We estimated stream sculpin feeding rates in three seasons at nine sites in Oregon to examine variation in trophic interaction strengths both across and within predator-prey pairs. Predator and prey densities, prey body mass, and abiotic factors were considered as putative drivers of within-pair variation over space and time. We hypothesized that consistently skewed interaction strength distributions could result if individual interaction strengths show relatively little variation, or alternatively, if interaction strengths vary but shift in ways that conserve their overall frequency distribution. Feeding rate distributions remained consistently and positively skewed across all sites and seasons. The mean coefficient of variation in feeding rates within each of 25 focal species pairs across surveys was less than half the mean coefficient of variation seen across species pairs within a survey. The rank order of feeding rates also remained conserved across streams, seasons and individual surveys. On average, feeding rates on each prey taxon nonetheless varied by a hundredfold, with some feeding rates showing more variation in space and others in time. In general, feeding rates increased with prey density and decreased with high stream flows and low water temperatures, although for nearly half of all species pairs, factors other than prey density explained the most variation. Our findings show that although individual interaction strengths exhibit considerable variation in space and time, they can nonetheless remain relatively consistent, and thus predictable, compared to the even larger variation that occurs across species pairs. These results highlight how the ecological scale of inference can strongly shape conclusions about interaction strength consistency and help reconcile how the skewed nature of interaction strength distributions can persist in highly dynamic food webs.