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Bertuol-Garcia D, Ladouceur E, Brudvig LA, Laughlin DC, Munson SM, Curran MF, Davies KW, Svejcar LN, Shackelford N. Testing the hierarchy of predictability in grassland restoration across a gradient of environmental severity. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2023; 33:e2922. [PMID: 37776043 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2922] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2023] [Revised: 07/07/2023] [Accepted: 08/18/2023] [Indexed: 10/01/2023]
Abstract
Ecological restoration is critical for recovering degraded ecosystems but is challenged by variable success and low predictability. Understanding which outcomes are more predictable and less variable following restoration can improve restoration effectiveness. Recent theory asserts that the predictability of outcomes would follow an order from most to least predictable from coarse to fine community properties (physical structure > taxonomic diversity > functional composition > taxonomic composition) and that predictability would increase with more severe environmental conditions constraining species establishment. We tested this "hierarchy of predictability" hypothesis by synthesizing outcomes along an aridity gradient with 11 grassland restoration projects across the United States. We used 1829 vegetation monitoring plots from 227 restoration treatments, spread across 52 sites. We fit generalized linear mixed-effects models to predict six indicators of restoration outcomes as a function of restoration characteristics (i.e., seed mixes, disturbance, management actions, time since restoration) and used variance explained by models and model residuals as proxies for restoration predictability. We did not find consistent support for our hypotheses. Physical structure was among the most predictable outcomes when the response variable was relative abundance of grasses, but unpredictable for total canopy cover. Similarly, one dimension of taxonomic composition related to species identities was unpredictable, but another dimension of taxonomic composition indicating whether exotic or native species dominated the community was highly predictable. Taxonomic diversity (i.e., species richness) and functional composition (i.e., mean trait values) were intermittently predictable. Predictability also did not increase consistently with aridity. The dimension of taxonomic composition related to the identity of species in restored communities was more predictable (i.e., smaller residuals) in more arid sites, but functional composition was less predictable (i.e., larger residuals), and other outcomes showed no significant trend. Restoration outcomes were most predictable when they related to variation in dominant species, while those responding to rare species were harder to predict, indicating a potential role of scale in restoration predictability. Overall, our results highlight additional factors that might influence restoration predictability and add support to the importance of continuous monitoring and active management beyond one-time seed addition for successful grassland restoration in the United States.
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Affiliation(s)
- Diana Bertuol-Garcia
- School of Environmental Studies, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Emma Ladouceur
- Institute of Computer Science, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale), Germany
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Leipzig-Halle-Jena, Leipzig, Germany
- Department of Physiological Diversity, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Lars A Brudvig
- Department of Plant Biology and Program in Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA
| | | | - Seth M Munson
- US Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA
| | | | - Kirk W Davies
- USDA, Agricultural Research Service, Burns, Oregon, USA
| | | | - Nancy Shackelford
- School of Environmental Studies, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
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Prieto PV, Bukoski JJ, Barros FSM, Beyer HL, Iribarrem A, Brancalion PHS, Chazdon RL, Lindenmayer DB, Strassburg BBN, Guariguata MR, Crouzeilles R. Predicting landscape-scale biodiversity recovery by natural tropical forest regrowth. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2022; 36:e13842. [PMID: 34705299 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13842] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/12/2021] [Revised: 09/06/2021] [Accepted: 09/15/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Natural forest regrowth is a cost-effective, nature-based solution for biodiversity recovery, yet different socioenvironmental factors can lead to variable outcomes. A critical knowledge gap in forest restoration planning is how to predict where natural forest regrowth is likely to lead to high levels of biodiversity recovery, which is an indicator of conservation value and the potential provisioning of diverse ecosystem services. We sought to predict and map landscape-scale recovery of species richness and total abundance of vertebrates, invertebrates, and plants in tropical and subtropical second-growth forests to inform spatial restoration planning. First, we conducted a global meta-analysis to quantify the extent to which recovery of species richness and total abundance in second-growth forests deviated from biodiversity values in reference old-growth forests in the same landscape. Second, we employed a machine-learning algorithm and a comprehensive set of socioenvironmental factors to spatially predict landscape-scale deviation and map it. Models explained on average 34% of observed variance in recovery (range 9-51%). Landscape-scale biodiversity recovery in second-growth forests was spatially predicted based on socioenvironmental landscape factors (human demography, land use and cover, anthropogenic and natural disturbance, ecosystem productivity, and topography and soil chemistry); was significantly higher for species richness than for total abundance for vertebrates (median range-adjusted predicted deviation 0.09 vs. 0.34) and invertebrates (0.2 vs. 0.35) but not for plants (which showed a similar recovery for both metrics [0.24 vs. 0.25]); and was positively correlated for total abundance of plant and vertebrate species (Pearson r = 0.45, p = 0.001). Our approach can help identify tropical and subtropical forest landscapes with high potential for biodiversity recovery through natural forest regrowth.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pablo V Prieto
- Rio Conservation and Sustainability Science Centre, Department of Geography and the Environment, Pontifícia Universidade Católica, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Jacob J Bukoski
- The Betty and Gordon Moore Center for Science, Conservation International, Arlington, Virginia, USA
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Felipe S M Barros
- International Institute for Sustainability Australia, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
- Centro de Referencia en Tecnologías de la Información para la Gestión con Software Libre (CeRTIG+SoL), Universidad Nacional de Misiones (UNaM), Misiones, Argentina
- Departamento de Geografía, Instituto Superior Antonio Ruiz de Montoya, Misiones, Argentina
- Instituto Misionero de Biodiversidad, Posadas, Misiones, Argentina
| | - Hawthorne L Beyer
- International Institute for Sustainability Australia, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
- Global Change Institute, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Alvaro Iribarrem
- Rio Conservation and Sustainability Science Centre, Department of Geography and the Environment, Pontifícia Universidade Católica, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- International Institute for Sustainability, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Pedro H S Brancalion
- Department of Forest Sciences, "Luiz de Queiroz" College of Agriculture, University of São Paulo, Piracicaba, Brazil
| | - Robin L Chazdon
- International Institute for Sustainability Australia, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, Connecticut, USA
- Tropical Forests and People Research Centre, University of the Sunshine Coast, Sunshine Coast, Queensland, Australia
| | - David B Lindenmayer
- Sustainable Farms, Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
| | - Bernardo B N Strassburg
- Rio Conservation and Sustainability Science Centre, Department of Geography and the Environment, Pontifícia Universidade Católica, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- International Institute for Sustainability, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Programa de Pós Graduação em Ecologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | | | - Renato Crouzeilles
- Rio Conservation and Sustainability Science Centre, Department of Geography and the Environment, Pontifícia Universidade Católica, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- International Institute for Sustainability Australia, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
- International Institute for Sustainability, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Programa de Pós Graduação em Ecologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Mestrado Profissional em Ciências do Meio Ambiente, Universidade Veiga de Almeida, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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Sulavik J, Auestad I, Halvorsen R, Rydgren K. Assessing recovery of alpine spoil heaps by vascular plant, bryophyte, and lichen functional traits. Restor Ecol 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/rec.13257] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Jan Sulavik
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Engineering and Science Western Norway University of Applied Sciences P.O. Box. 133, NO‐6851 Sogndal Norway
- Geo‐ecological Research Group, Section for Research and Collections, Natural History Museum University of Oslo P.O. Box 1172 Blindern, N‐0318 Oslo Norway
| | - Inger Auestad
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Engineering and Science Western Norway University of Applied Sciences P.O. Box. 133, NO‐6851 Sogndal Norway
| | - Rune Halvorsen
- Geo‐ecological Research Group, Section for Research and Collections, Natural History Museum University of Oslo P.O. Box 1172 Blindern, N‐0318 Oslo Norway
| | - Knut Rydgren
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Engineering and Science Western Norway University of Applied Sciences P.O. Box. 133, NO‐6851 Sogndal Norway
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Abella SR, Hodel JL, Schetter TA. Unusually high‐quality soil seed banks in a Midwestern U.S. oak savanna region: variation with land use history, habitat restoration, and soil properties. Restor Ecol 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/rec.13164] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Scott R. Abella
- School of Life Sciences University of Nevada Las Vegas Las Vegas NV 89154‐4004 U.S.A
- Natural Resource Conservation LLC 1400 Colorado Street Boulder City NV 89005 U.S.A
| | - Jenella L. Hodel
- Metroparks Toledo 5100 West Central Avenue Toledo OH 43615 U.S.A
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Rydgren K, Auestad I, Halvorsen R, Hamre LN, Jongejans E, Töpper JP, Sulavik J. Assessing restoration success by predicting time to recovery—But by which metric? J Appl Ecol 2019. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13526] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/26/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Knut Rydgren
- Department of Environmental Sciences Western Norway University of Applied Sciences Sogndal Norway
| | - Inger Auestad
- Department of Environmental Sciences Western Norway University of Applied Sciences Sogndal Norway
| | - Rune Halvorsen
- University of OsloGeo‐Ecology Research GroupSection of Research and CollectionsNatural History Museum Oslo Norway
| | - Liv Norunn Hamre
- Department of Environmental Sciences Western Norway University of Applied Sciences Sogndal Norway
| | - Eelke Jongejans
- Radboud UniversityInstitute for Water and Wetland Research Nijmegen The Netherlands
| | | | - Jan Sulavik
- Department of Environmental Sciences Western Norway University of Applied Sciences Sogndal Norway
- University of OsloGeo‐Ecology Research GroupSection of Research and CollectionsNatural History Museum Oslo Norway
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Environmental Restoration in Hydropower Development—Lessons from Norway. SUSTAINABILITY 2018. [DOI: 10.3390/su10093358] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Hydropower is expanding globally and is regarded a key measure for mitigating climate change, but it also results in major environmental degradation, both at local scale and more widely. We can learn lessons about how restoration can be used to alleviate these problems from failures and successes in countries with a long history of hydropower development, such as Norway. Here, hydropower projects grew larger over time, and in the 1960s, the emerging environmentalist movement started to challenge hydropower developments because of their negative impacts on the environment. The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate then appointed a landscape architect who became very influential, particularly due to his skills in aesthetics and photo documentation. He developed principles for designing self-sustaining environments which he called “living nature”, and in particular proposed methods of restoring barren, unattractive, alpine spoil heaps. Later, restoration methods and goals have changed in response to new insights and the changing goals of ecological restoration. Here, we present current best practice for the alpine biome and sum up general lessons in three points: restoration can represent a sustainable, ‘third way’ in the conflict between conservation and development; including a wider group of professionals may improve restoration goals and methods, and effective use of visual communication can be a good way of gaining support for new restoration principles.
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