Environmental conditions variably affect growth across the breeding season in a subarctic seabird

An ecologically sound and participatory monitoring network for pan-Arctic seabirds

In a warming Arctic, circumpolar long-term monitoring programs are key to advancing ecological knowledge and informing environmental policies. Calls for better involvement of Arctic peoples in all stages of the monitoring process are widespread, although such transformation of Arctic science is still in its infancy. Seabirds stand out as ecological sentinels of environmental changes, and priority has been given to implement the Circumpolar Seabird Monitoring Plan (CSMP). We assessed the representativeness of a pan-Arctic seabird monitoring network focused on the black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) by comparing the distribution of environmental variables for all known versus monitored colonies. We found that with respect to its spatiotemporal coverage, this monitoring network does not fully embrace current and future environmental gradients. To improve the current scheme, we designed a method to identify colonies whose inclusion in the monitoring network will improve its ecological representativeness, limit logistical constraints, and improve involvement of Arctic peoples. We thereby highlight that inclusion of study sites in the Bering Sea, Siberia, western Russia, northern Norway, and southeastern Greenland could improve the current monitoring network and that their proximity to local populations might allow increased involvement of local communities. Our framework can be applied to improve existing monitoring networks in other ecoregions and sociological contexts.

The magnitude of selection on growth varies among years and increases under warming conditions in a subarctic seabird

Because of ongoing rapid climate change, many ecosystems are becoming both warmer and more variable, and these changes are likely to alter the magnitude and variability of natural selection acting on wild populations. Critically, changes and fluctuations in selection can impact both population demography and evolutionary change. Therefore, predicting the impacts of climate change depends on understanding the magnitude and variation in selection on traits across different life stages and environments. Long-term experiments in wild settings are a great opportunity to determine the impact of environmental conditions on selection. Here we examined variability in the strength of selection on size traits of nestling black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) in a 25-year study including a food supplementation experiment on Middleton Island in the Gulf of Alaska. Using mixed effect models, we examined the annual variability of stage-specific and resource-specific selection gradients across 25 years. We found that (a) larger and heavier hatchlings were the most likely to survive during early ontogeny, (b) non-food supplemented younger nestlings in a brood experienced the strongest selection, and (c) warmer conditions increased the magnitude of selection on nestling mass and affected non-food supplemented and second-hatched nestlings the most. Our results suggested that variable resource dynamics likely caused some of the changes in selection from year to year and that warming conditions increased the strength of selection on subarctic seabird growth. However, our experimental manipulation revealed that local environmental heterogeneity could buffer the selection expected from broader climatic changes. Consequently, understanding the interactive effects of local conditions and general changes in climate seems likely to improve our ability to predict future selection gradients.

Seasonal weather effects on offspring survival differ between reproductive stages in a long-lived neotropical seabird

Weather conditions can profoundly affect avian reproduction. It is known that weather conditions prior to and after the onset of reproduction can affect the breeding success of birds. However, little is known about how seasonal weather variability can affect birds' breeding performance, particularly for species with a slow pace of life. Long-term studies are key to understanding how weather variability can affect a population's dynamics, especially when extreme weather events are expected to increase with climate change. Using a 32-year population study of the Blue-footed booby (Sula nebouxii) in Mexico, we show that seasonal variation in weather conditions, predominantly during the incubation stage, affects offspring survival and body condition at independence. During most of the incubation period, warm sea surface temperatures were correlated with low hatching success, while rainfall in the middle of the incubation stage was correlated with high fledging success. In addition, chicks from nests that experienced warm sea surface temperatures from the pre-laying stage to near-fledging had lower body condition at 70 days of age. Finally, we show that variable annual SST conditions before and during the incubation stage can impair breeding performance. Our results provide insight into how seasonal and interannual weather variation during key reproductive stages can affect hatching success, fledging success, and fledgling body condition in a long-lived neotropical seabird.

Climatic Effects on Grey-Faced Petrel (Pterodroma gouldi) Chick Growth and Survival

Grey-faced Petrels (Pterodroma gouldi) are a colonial burrowing seabird predominantly nesting on offshore islands of the upper North Island of New Zealand. We studied their annual breeding biology and the impact of Southern Oscillation Index climatic effects by measuring colony productivity and chick growth rates from 2011 to 2015 on Te Hāwere-a-Maki as unfavorable warmer La Niña conditions changed to favorable cooler El Niño conditions. Across all five years, annual chick hatching consistently occurred within a one-week period at the end of August but fledging variably occurred over a three-week period following Christmas. Because ship rats are pest controlled on Te Hāwere-a-Maki, we found only a slight reduction in breeding success with nearby predator-free islands. However, chick growth and fledging rates were significantly higher under El Niño conditions occurring towards the end of our study, rather than La Niña conditions at the start of our study. Our regular handling of chicks for monitoring had no discernible impact compared to a set of control chicks. The combined impacts of annual variation in predation and climate mean the Grey-faced Petrel colony on Te Hāwere-a-Maki maintains a constant population size of around 100 burrows.