National recurrence of pancreatitis and readmissions after biliary pancreatitis

Development and Validation of a Clinical Predictive Nomogram for Assessing the Risk of Recurrence of Acute Pancreatitis in Combined Hypertriglyceridemia

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study is to develop and validate a new nomogram-based scoring system for anticipating the recurrence of acute pancreatitis (AP) in combined hypertriglyceridemia (HTG).

METHODS

A total of 292 patients diagnosed with AP combined with HTG participated in this research. Among them, 201 patients meeting the inclusion criteria were randomly divided into training and validation sets at a ratio of 7:3. Clinical data were collected for all patients. In the training set, predictive indicators were chosen through backward stepwise multivariable logistic regression analysis. Subsequently, a nomogram was developed based on the selected indicators. Finally, the model's performance was validated in both the training and validation sets.

RESULTS

By employing backward stepwise multivariable logistic regression analysis, we identified diabetes, gallstones, alcohol consumption, and triglyceride levels as predictive indicators. Subsequently, a clinical nomogram that incorporates these four independent risk factors was constructed. Model validation demonstrated an AUC of 0.726 (95% CI 0.644-0.809) in the training set and an AUC of 0.712 (95% CI 0.583-0.842) in the validation set, indicating a good discriminative ability. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test yielded P-values of 0.882 and 0.536 in the training and validation sets, respectively, suggesting good calibration. Calibration curves further confirmed good agreement. Ultimately, decision curve analysis (DCA) emphasized the clinical utility of our model.

CONCLUSION

We have developed a nomogram for predicting the recurrence of AP combined with HTG in patients, and this nomogram demonstrates good discriminative ability, calibration, and clinical utility. This tool holds the potential to assist clinicians in offering more personalized treatment strategies for AP combined with HTG.

Management of Gallstone Pancreatitis: A Review

Importance

Gallstone pancreatitis (GSP) is the leading cause of acute pancreatitis, accounting for approximately 50% of cases. Without appropriate and timely treatment, patients are at increased risk of disease progression and recurrence. While there is increasing consensus among guidelines for the management of mild GSP, adherence to these guidelines remains poor. In addition, there is minimal evidence to guide clinicians in the treatment of moderately severe and severe pancreatitis.

Observations

The management of GSP continues to evolve and is dependent on severity of acute pancreatitis and concomitant biliary diagnoses. Across the spectrum of severity, there is evidence that goal-directed, moderate fluid resuscitation decreases the risk of fluid overload and mortality compared with aggressive resuscitation. Patients with isolated, mild GSP should undergo same-admission cholecystectomy; early cholecystectomy within 48 hours of admission has been supported by several randomized clinical trials. Cholecystectomy should be delayed for patients with severe disease; for severe and moderately severe disease, the optimal timing remains unclear. Preoperative endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) is only useful for patients with suspected cholangitis or biliary obstruction, although the concomitance of these conditions in patients with GSP is rare. Modality of evaluation of the common bile duct to rule out concomitant choledocholithiasis varies and should be tailored to level of concern based on objective measures, such as laboratory results and imaging findings. Among these modalities, intraoperative cholangiography is associated with reduced length of stay and decreased use of ERCP. However, the benefit of routine intraoperative cholangiography remains in question.

Conclusions and Relevance

Treatment of GSP is dependent on disease severity, which can be difficult to assess. A comprehensive review of clinically relevant evidence and recommendations on GSP severity grading, fluid resuscitation, timing of cholecystectomy, need for ERCP, and evaluation and management of persistent choledocholithiasis can help guide clinicians in diagnosis and management.

Early versus delayed cholecystectomy in biliary pancreatitis: Experience from a Local Acute Care Surgery Unit in Saudi Arabia

Biliary pancreatitis is a common complication of gallstones. Although most patients experience mild disease, around 20% may develop severe pancreatitis with an increased risk of serious complications during recurrent attacks. The objective of our study is to compare the surgical outcomes and length of stay for early versus delayed cholecystectomy, performed within the same admission, for mild pancreatitis in a Saudi tertiary center with an established Acute Care Surgey Unit. This retrospective cohort study included all patients who underwent cholecystectomy during the index admission for biliary pancreatitis between January 2017 and January 2020. Surgical outcomes and hospital length of stay were collected and analyzed to assess overall outcomes for early and delayed cholecystectomy groups. The early group was defined as surgery performed within 72 hours of presentation. Eighty-six patients were included and allocated to the early and delayed cholecystectomy groups. The median length of hospital stay was significantly shorter in the early cholecystectomy group (4 days, IQR 3-5) compared to the delayed group (7 days, IQR 6-9) (P < .001). There was no significant difference in operative time and postoperative complications. Early cholecystectomy for mild biliary pancreatitis appears safe and feasible and may result in a shorter hospital stay.

Recurrence rates and risk factors for recurrence after first episode of acute pancreatitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

There are a certain number of acute pancreatitis (AP) patients who may suffer from multiple episodes and develop recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP), but recurrence rates and associated risk factors for RAP vary significantly in the published literature.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and Embase databases to identify all publications reporting AP recurrence until October 20th, 2022. Meta-analysis and meta-regression were performed to calculate the pooled estimates using the random-effects model.

RESULTS

A total of 36 studies met the inclusion criteria and all were used in pooled analyses. The overall rate of recurrence after first-time AP was 21% (95% CI, 18%- 24%), and pooled rates in biliary, alcoholic, idiopathic, and hypertriglyceridemia etiology patients were 12%, 30%, 25%, and 30%, respectively. After managing underlying causes post-discharge, the recurrence rate decreased (14% versus 4% for biliary, 30% versus 6% for alcoholic, and 30% versus 22% for hypertriglyceridemia AP). An increased risk of recurrence was reported in patients with a smoking history (odds ratio [OR] = 1.99), alcoholic etiology (OR = 1.72), male sex (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.63), and local complications (HR = 3.40), while biliary etiology was associated with lower recurrence rates (OR = 0.38).

CONCLUSION

More than one-fifth of AP patients experienced recurrence after discharge, with the highest recurrence rate in alcoholic and hypertriglyceridemia etiologies, and managing underlying causes post-discharge was related to decreased incidence. In addition, smoking history, alcoholic etiology, male gender, and presence of local complications were independent risks for the recurrence.