A comprehensive overview of the spatial and temporal variability of apple bud dormancy release and blooming phenology in Western Europe

Analyzing the impacts of climate change on ecosystem services provided by apple orchards in Southeast France using a process-based model

We know that fruit production, especially in the Mediterranean, will need to adapt to climate change to ensure the sustainability of fruit tree-based agroecosystems. However, there is a lack of evidence on the long-term effects of this change on sustainability indicators. To fill this gap, we used a fruit tree model, QualiTree, to analyze the impacts ofclimate change on the ecosystem services provided by apple orchards in south-eastern France. To do this, a blooming model was parameterized to simulate blooming date on the basis of climate data, and QualiTree was supplemented with a model of nitrogen processes in the tree and a soil module describing resource input (irrigation, mineral and organic fertilization), transfer in the soil (water and nitrogen) and metabolic transformation-immobilization (mineralization, (de)nitrification). This type of extension makes it possible to simulate a wide array of ecosystem services, including C sequestration, nitrate leaching and nitrous oxide emissions. The model was compared with data from an apple orchard in southeastern France. The predicted daily mean and variability over time of fruit growth, composition and soil water content were consistent with observed data. QualiTree was then used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the ecosystem services supplied by apple orchards. For this purpose, weather variables from 2020 to 2100 were generated for three contrasted greenhouse gas emission scenarios, and simulations were performed under two irrigation schemes (no restriction and restricted use of water). Model outputs indicated that, on average, marketable apple yields would increase until 2050 and then subsequently decrease. The fruit refractometric index, an indicator of fruit quality, was projected to sharply decrease with the intensity of climate change. Ecosystem services such as C sequestration by the orchard will decrease with climate change severity, mainly due to a higher mineralization of soil humus, whereas N2O emissions will increase with larger denitrification rates. Soil water availability, fertility, drainage and leaching were predicted to depend more on the irrigation strategy than on climate change severity. The new functions performed in QualiTree broadened its predictive capabilities and allowed for a better understanding of ecosystem service delivery in fruit orchards under varying climate conditions.

Functional evidence on the involvement of the MADS-box gene MdDAM4 in bud dormancy regulation in apple

Over the course of the year, temperate trees experience extremes in temperature and day length. In order to protect themselves from frost damage in winter, they enter a dormant state with no visible growth where all leaves are shed and buds are dormant. Also the young floral tissues need to withstand harsh winter conditions, as temperature fruit trees like apple develop their flower buds in the previous year of fruit development. So far, the genetic control of induction and release of dormancy is not fully understood. However, the transcription factor family of DORMANCY-Associated MADS-box (DAM) genes plays a major role in the control of winter dormancy. One of these genes is MdDAM4. This gene is expressed in the early phase of bud dormancy, but little is known about its function. Six transgenic apple lines were produced to study the function of MdDAM4 in apple. For plant transformation, the binary plasmid vector p9oN-35s-MdDAM4 was used that contains the coding sequence of MdDAM4 driven by the 35S promoter. Transgenicity of the lines was proven by PCR and southern hybridization. Based on siRNA sequencing and phenotypic observations, it was concluded that line M2024 overexpresses MdDAM4 whereas the gene is silenced in all other lines. Phenotyping of the transgenic lines provided evidence that the overexpression of MdDAM4 leads to an earlier induction and a later release of dormancy. Silencing this gene had exactly the opposite effects and thereby led to an increased duration of the vegetation period. Expression experiments revealed genes that were either potentially repressed or activated by MdDAM4. Among the potentially suppressed genes were several homologs of the cytokinin oxidase 5 (CKX5), five LOX homologs, and several expansins, which may indicate a link between MdDAM4 and the control of leaf senescence. Among the potentially activated genes is MdDAM1, which is in line with observed expression patterns during winter dormancy. MdDAM2, which shows little expression during endodormancy also appears to be activated by MdDAM4. Overall, this study provides experimental evidence with transgenic apple trees for MdDAM4 being an important regulator of the onset of bud dormancy in apple.

Adaptation of agriculture to extreme weather events: evidence from apple farmers' organic fertilizer use in China

Overcoming the challenge of more frequent and extreme weather events holds importance in agricultural production. We take spring frost disasters as a representative extreme weather event to identify how perennial economic crop farmers adjust the quantity of organic fertilizer used in response to extreme weather events and their adjustment mechanism. In this study, we establish a conceptual framework for the adaptation mechanism of apple growers under extreme weather events. This article draws and verifies five hypotheses through on-site investigations of apple growers in Shaanxi Province, China. Empirical evidence shows that farmers increase the quantity of commercial organic fertilizer materials in the year and in the following year when spring frost occurs, indicating that their adaptative behavior can be subdivided into repair and prevention. Mechanism analysis shows that liquidity constraints impact farmers' adaptive behavior. Liquidity constraints limit the ability of farmers to increase the quantity of commercial organic fertilizer materials to adapt to a spring frost disaster. Furthermore, for farmers not constrained by liquidity constraints, household resource endowment conditions still affect their adaptive behavior. Significantly, the household labor force size mainly influences farmers to increase commercial organic fertilizer to adapt to a spring frost disaster. Our findings highlight the differences between the adaptive behavior mechanism of perennial crop farmers and food crop farmers. Moreover, we reconfirm the stimulating effect of organic fertilizer on crop production.

Endocarp Development Study in Full Irrigated Olive Orchards and Impact on Fruit Features at Harvest

Endocarp development in olive trees includes three periods: growth (Period I), massive sclerification (Period II) and maximum hardening (Period III). The two first are strongly related to yield and irrigation management. Period I was reported to coincide with mesocarp cell division and thus with final fruit size. Period II was considered to be the most drought-resistant phenological stage. However, little is known in olive trees about the length of these periods and their capacity for predicting fruit size at harvest. The aim of this work was to evaluate the length of both periods in different cultivars and different location of full irrigated orchards. We also aimed to study the fruit feature impact on harvest at the end of Period I. Data from full irrigated olive orchards of cv Cornicabra, Arbequina and Manzanilla in two different locations (Ciudad Real, Central Spain, and Seville, South Spain) were used. The pattern of pit-breaking pressure throughout the season was measured with fruit samples for several years (2006 to 2022). These data and climatic data were used to compare different estimation methods for the length of Period I and II of endocarp development. Then, fruit volume and dry weight at the end of Period I were used to estimate fruit features at harvest. Results suggest that the Period I length was less temperature- and cultivar-dependent than expected. The duration of this period was almost constant at around 49 days after full bloom. Thermal time was negatively correlated with fruit size at the end of Period I. On the contrary, a lineal thermal model presented the lowest variability when estimating the Period II length, which was also affected by the cultivar. The best fit between fruit dry weight and volume at Period I vs. harvest was unique for oil cultivars (Cornicabra and Arbequina), while cv Manzanilla presented a different relationship. A temperature increase in the future would not affect the Period I length but would reduce the fruit size at the end of this period and at harvest.

Climatic suitability projection for deciduous fruit tree cultivation in main producing regions of northern China under climate warming

China is the largest fruit producer and consumer market in the world. Understanding the growing conditions responses to climate change is the key to predict future site suitability of main cultivation areas for certain deciduous fruit trees. In this study, we used dynamic and growing degree day models driven by downscaled daily temperatures from 22 global climate models to project the effects of climate change on growing conditions for deciduous fruit trees under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios over 2 future time periods (represented by central years 2050s and 2085s) in northern China. The results showed a general increase of available winter chill for all sites under RCP4.5 scenario, and the most dramatic increase in chill accumulation could reach up to 36.8% in northeast regions for RCP8.5. However, the forecasted chill will decrease by 6.4% in southeast stations under RCP8.5 by 2085s. Additionally, the increase rate of growing season heat showed spatially consistency, and the most pronounced increase was found in the RCP8.5 by 2085s. For the southwest station, median heat accumulation increased by 20.8% in the 2050s and 37.1% in the 2085s under RCP8.5. Similar increasing range could be found in the northeast station; the median growing season heat increased by 19.8% and 38.8% in the 2050s and 2085s under RCP8.5, respectively. Moreover, the date of last spring frost was expected to advance and the frequency of frost occurrences was projected to decline in the study area compared to the past. Overall, the present study improves understanding regarding site-specific characteristics of climatic suitability for deciduous fruit tree cultivation in main producing regions of northern China. The results could provide growers and decision-makers with theoretical evidence to take adaptive measure to ensure fruit production in future.

Horticultural Characteristics of Summer Apple Cultivars from Turkey

Early varieties with a short active vegetation period are not exposed to abiotic stress factors for instance drought, high temperature, etc., caused by global climate change, and biotic stress factors such as codling moth (Cydia pomonella) and apple scab (Venturia inequalis) that cause serious economic losses. Therefore, their places are extremely important regarding sustainable, economical and quality production. In this context, four early varieties of apple (‘Vista Bella’, ‘Summer Red’, ‘Williams Pride’ and ‘Jersey Mac’) grown in Eskisehir—Turkey where has continental climate were characterized in terms of horticultural characteristics. The difference observed in flowering and harvest times between years showed that average air temperatures are essential on phenological characteristics. Furthermore, high temperature accelerates development physiology of fruit. Major important characteristics, namely, fruit length, width, weight, soluble solid content, antioxidant activity, vitamin C and total phenolic content were found in the range of 39.19–50.88 mm, 51.48–60.81 mm, 80.59–86.16 g, 11.87–12.19%, 50.69–80.57%, 2.24–4.79 mg 100 mL⁻¹ and 259.23–871.42 mg GAE (gallic acid equivalent) L⁻¹, respectively. ‘Summer Red’ and ‘Williams Pride’ varieties were found to be good in terms of pomological characteristics, while ‘Vista Bella’ came to the fore with its chemical properties. On the other hand, ‘Jersey Mac’ has shown superior performance in terms of both pomological and chemical characteristics. Pomological characteristics are affected more by ecological differences, while chemical characteristics vary according to the changes in the pomological properties. Pomological characteristics were found to have a significant positive correlation with each other but negatively correlated with chemical characteristics.

How Is Global Warming Affecting Fruit Tree Blooming? "Flowering (Dormancy) Disorder" in Japanese Pear (Pyrus pyrifolia) as a Case Study

Recent climate change has resulted in warmer temperatures. Warmer temperatures from autumn to spring has negatively affected dormancy progression, cold (de)acclimation, and cold tolerance in various temperate fruit trees. In Japan, a physiological disorder known as flowering disorder, which is an erratic flowering and bud break disorder, has recently emerged as a serious problem in the production of the pome fruit tree, Japanese (Asian) pear (Pyrus pyrifolia Nakai). Due to global warming, the annual temperature in Japan has risen markedly since the 1990s. Surveys of flowering disorder in field-grown and greenhouse-grown Japanese pear trees over several years have indicated that flowering disorder occurs in warmer years and cultivation conditions, and the risk of flowering disorder occurrence is higher at lower latitudes than at higher latitudes. Susceptibility to flowering disorder is linked to changes in the transcript levels of putative dormancy/flowering regulators such as DORMANCY-ASSOCIATED MADS-box (DAM) and FLOWERING LOCUS T (FT). On the basis of published studies, we conclude that autumn-winter warm temperatures cause flowering disorder through affecting cold acclimation, dormancy progression, and floral bud maturation. Additionally, warm conditions also decrease carbohydrate accumulation in shoots, leading to reduced tree vigor. We propose that all these physiological and metabolic changes due to the lack of chilling during the dormancy phase interact to cause flowering disorder in the spring. We also propose that the process of chilling exposure rather than the total amount of chilling may be important for the precise control of dormancy progression and robust blooming, which in turn suggests the necessity of re-evaluation of the characteristics of cultivar-dependent chilling requirement trait. A full understanding of the molecular and metabolic regulatory mechanisms of both dormancy completion (floral bud maturation) and dormancy break (release from the repression of bud break) will help to clarify the physiological basis of dormancy-related physiological disorder and also provide useful strategies to mitigate or overcome it under global warming.

Persian Walnut (Juglans regia L.) Bud Dormancy Dynamics in Northern Patagonia, Argentina

Temperate deciduous fruit trees survive winter temperatures by entering a dormant phase in their aerial meristematic organs. Release from bud dormancy occurs after chill requirements (CR) have been satisfied, whereas bud burst/flowering follows heat requirement (HR) fulfillment. The physiological basis behind these metrics remains elusive. In this study, we are presenting the first multidisciplinary dormancy progression analysis in northern Patagonia, linking (1) forcing/field phenology, (2) bud anatomical development, and (3) soluble sugar (sucrose, glucose, and fructose) dynamics in Juglans regia L. CR and HR were determined for 'Chandler' and 'Franquette,' two walnut cultivars with markedly different CR, in artificial chill/forced heat trials (three seasons) and in-field chill/forced heat tests (five seasons) using excised twigs either with or without apical buds (non-decapitated and decapitated). The soluble sugar dynamics of 'Chandler' (high-performance liquid chromatography) and the anatomical changes of the buds (light microscopy) of the two cultivars were analyzed during endo-ecodormancy progression in one and two seasons, respectively. The CR defined by artificial chill tests proved to be an overestimation compared to the field determinations. Moreover, HR was the main driver in the phenology dynamics, as expected for a high-chill region. 'Chandler' showed an average of 10.3 field chill portions (CP) and 2,163 Growing Degree Hours (GDH°C) less than 'Franquette' for dormancy release and bud burst, respectively. These results were consistent with the transition of the shoot apex from the vegetative to the reproductive phase and the soluble sugar profile. The decrease in sucrose between 15 and 30 days after CR fulfillment could be a reliable biological marker for endodormancy release in walnut, while the increase in fructose and glucose is likely an osmolyte and cellulosic carbon source in pre-sprouting. In addition, we discuss the effect of paradormancy thanks to our apical bud experiment (with or without). Our results improve the current understanding of endo-ecodormancy progression in walnut and provide insightful results for walnut production (i.e., cultivation practices such as pruning) as well as for further application in dormancy modeling, to infer the ideotypes that should be bred for future climate conditions.

“60 Years on”—Effects of Climatic Change on Tree Phenology—A Case Study Using Pome Fruit

Phenological records of apple and pear trees, including flowering, harvest and leaf drop, and concomitant weather records at Klein-Altendorf (50° N) near Bonn, Germany were correlated using two approaches: (a) linear curve fitting and (b) comparison of mean values of the first 30 years (1956–1988) versus the recent 30 years of climate change (1989–2017). The annual air temperature increased by 1.7 °C from 8.6 °C in 1958 to 10.3 °C in 2017 over the last 60 years and similarly in the vegetation period (1 April–30 October) from 13.7 °C in 1958 to 15.2 °C in 2017 by 1.5 °C. The combination of stronger increase in winter temperatures (by +1.2 °C) than in the summer (air +1.0 °C) with advanced bud break and −0.3 °C lower minimum temperatures in April during flowering resulted a continued risk of a late frost, as experienced in 2017. The strongest climate change effect, i.e., 11–14 days advanced flowering (in apple and pear) highly correlated (R2 −0.7) with the March/April temperature. Fruit ontogeny was 4 days shorter in cv. ‘Lucas’ pear, but 5 days longer in cv. ‘Cox’ and 10 days longer in cv. ‘Boskoop’, but remained unchanged in cv. ‘Golden Delicious’, irrespective of early or late ripening variety and contradictory climate effects, fruit matured 4–12 days earlier indicating its sole dependency on variety. Climate data and (earlier) harvest date closely correlated (R2: 0.6–0.7). The lowest correlation was between canopy duration (bloom to leaf fall), which was consistently extended by 6–10 days and the leaf drop stage beginning 2–4 days earlier. The correlations indicated that the Meckenheim fruit growing region is strongly affected by climate change and the comparison between two equally-balanced 30-year phases gave more realistic results than linear curve fitting.

Identification of early and late flowering time candidate genes in endodormant and ecodormant almond flower buds

Flower bud dormancy in temperate fruit tree species, such as almond [Prunus dulcis (Mill.) D.A. Webb], is a survival mechanism that ensures that flowering will occur under suitable weather conditions for successful flower development, pollination and fruit set. Dormancy is divided into three sequential phases: paradormancy, endodormancy and ecodormancy. During the winter, buds need cultivar-specific chilling requirements (CRs) to overcome endodormancy and heat requirements to activate the machinery to flower in the ecodormancy phase. One of the main factors that enables the transition from endodormancy to ecodormancy is transcriptome reprogramming. In this work, we therefore monitored three almond cultivars with different CRs and flowering times by RNA sequencing during the endodormancy release of flower buds and validated the data by quantitative real-time PCR in two consecutive seasons. We were thus able to identify early and late flowering time candidate genes in endodormant and ecodormant almond flower buds associated with metabolic switches, transmembrane transport, cell wall remodeling, phytohormone signaling and pollen development. These candidate genes were indeed involved in the overcoming of the endodormancy in almond. This information may be used for the development of dormancy molecular markers, increasing the efficiency of temperate fruit tree breeding programs in a climate-change context.

Comparison of chilling and heat requirements for leaf unfolding in deciduous woody species in temperate and subtropical China

Climate warming has advanced the spring phenology of many plant species by accelerating heat accumulation. However, delayed phenophases due to insufficient chilling have also been reported. Based on phenological observation data (1963-2010), we compared the effects of preseason chill and heat accumulation on leaf unfolding dates of four deciduous woody species (Lagerstroemia indica, Robinia pseudoacacia, Sophora japonica, and Ulmus pumila) in temperate and subtropical regions of China. Daily chill and heat accumulation were calculated by two chilling models (the Positive Utah Model and the Dynamic Model) and the Growing Degree Hour (GDH) Model. We determined the temporal trends in chill and heat accumulations for leaf unfolding of the four species. The results showed that there were shorter chilling periods in the subtropics than in temperate sites because the chilling period typically started later and ended earlier. There was no significant difference in the length of the forcing period in the different regions. The chilling requirements for leaf unfolding were higher in temperate regions (1344.9-1798.9 chilling units (CU) or 64.7-79.4 chilling portions (CP)) than in the subtropics (1145.9-1828.1 CU or 47.9-75.2 CP). Plants in the subtropics needed higher forcing temperatures (4135.8-10084.8 GDH) than those in temperate regions (3292.0-8383.6 GDH). The earlier-leafing species (e.g., U. pumila) had a lower heat requirement for leaf unfolding than the later-leafing species (e.g., L. indica). A significant increase in heat accumulation was found at all sites except Guiyang, while chill accumulation only increased in Beijing.

Diverging models introduce large uncertainty in future climate warming impact on spring phenology of temperate deciduous trees

Spring phenology influences terrestrial ecosystem carbon, water and energy exchanges between the biosphere and atmosphere. Accurate prediction of spring phenology is therefore a prerequisite to foresee the impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ecosystems. In the present study, we studied the model performance of four widely used process-based models of spring leaf unfolding, including both a one-phase model (not considering a chilling phase: the Thermal Time model) and three two-phase models (all accounting for a required chilling period: the Parallel model, the Sequential model, the Unified model). Models were tested on five deciduous tree species occurring across Europe. We specifically investigated the divergence of their phenology predictions under future climate warming scenarios and studied the differences in the chilling periods. We found that, in general, the two-phase models performed slightly better than the one-phase model when fitting to the observed data, with all two-phase models performing similarly. However, leaf unfolding projections diverged substantially among the two-phase models over the period 2070-2100. Furthermore, we found that the modeled end dates of the chilling periods in these models also diverged, with advances for both the Sequential and Parallel models during the period 2070-2100 (compared to the period 1980-2010), and delays in the Unified model. These findings thus highlight large uncertainty in the two-phase phenology models and confirm that the mechanism underlying the leaf unfolding process is not yet understood. We therefore urgently need an improved understanding of the leaf unfolding process in order to improve the representation of phenology in terrestrial ecosystem models.

The Effects of Extreme Weather on Apple Quality

A large literature has documented the effects of weather on agricultural yields. However, weather not only impacts the quantity produced, but also the quality of the product. Due to data limitations, the quality effects have primarily been studied using lab experiments for specific attributes, and the financial implications for farmers of a quality effect are less clear. Using a unique longitudinal micro-level data set of Swiss apple orchards that include information on both the quantity produced as well as the quality, we show that the latter can have an even larger effect on farm revenue. Ignoring the quality of the harvested product substantially biases the impact of weather extremes on agricultural income and the potential effects of climate change. Our quality measure is the orchard-year specific price shock. If an orchard gets a lower price for its specific apple variety compared to previous years and compared to other orchards in the same year, we observe the market's valuation of its inferior quality accounting for overall price movements (other orchards growing same variety that year) as well as orchard specific factors (orchard fixed effects). We find that spring frost events induce farm gate price drops and thus revenue reductions of up to 2.05% per hour of exposure.

Possible Increase of Vegetation Exposure to Spring Frost under Climate Change in Switzerland

We assessed future changes in spring frost risk for the Aare river catchment that comprises the Swiss Plateau, the most important agricultural region of Switzerland. An ensemble of 15 bias-corrected regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the EXAR data set forced by the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 concentration pathways were analysed for two future periods. Correlating actual meteorological observations and Swiss phenological spring index, we proposed and tested an RCM-compatible methodology (based on temperature data only) for estimating a start of spring and severity of frost events. In the historical climate, a significant advancement in start of spring was observed and frost events were more frequent in those years in which spring started sooner. In 2021–2050, spring is projected to start eight (twelve) days earlier, considering the RCP 4.5 (8.5) scenario. Substantial changes were simulated for the 2070–2099 period under RCP 8.5, when the total severity of frost events was projected to be increased by a factor of 2.1 compared to the historical climate. The study revealed the possible future increase of vegetation exposure to spring frost in Switzerland and that this phenomenon is noticeable even in the near future under the ‘low concentration’ RCP 4.5 scenario.

Shifts in the temperature-sensitive periods for spring phenology in European beech and pedunculate oak clones across latitudes and over recent decades

Spring phenology of temperate trees has advanced worldwide in response to global warming. However, increasing temperatures may not necessarily lead to further phenological advance, especially in the warmer latitudes because of insufficient chilling and/or shorter day length. Determining the start of the forcing phase, that is, when buds are able to respond to warmer temperatures in spring, is therefore crucial to predict how phenology will change in the future. In this study, we used 4,056 leaf-out date observations during the period 1969-2017 for clones of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) planted in 63 sites covering a large latitudinal gradient (from Portugal ~41°N to Norway ~63°N) at the International Phenological Gardens in order to (a) evaluate how the sensitivity periods to forcing and chilling have changed with climate warming, and (b) test whether consistent patterns occur along biogeographical gradients, that is, from colder to warmer environments. Partial least squares regressions suggest that the length of the forcing period has been extended over the recent decades with climate warming in the colder latitudes but has been shortened in the warmer latitudes for both species, with a more pronounced shift for beech. We attribute the lengthening of the forcing period in the colder latitudes to earlier opportunities with temperatures that can promote bud development. In contrast, at warmer or oceanic climates, the beginning of the forcing period has been delayed, possibly due to insufficient chilling. However, in spite of a later beginning of the forcing period, spring phenology has continued to advance at these areas due to a faster satisfaction of heat requirements induced by climate warming. Overall, our results support that ongoing climate warming will have different effects on the spring phenology of forest trees across latitudes due to the interactions between chilling, forcing and photoperiod.

The MADS-Box Gene MdDAM1 Controls Growth Cessation and Bud Dormancy in Apple

Apple trees require a long exposure to chilling temperature during winter to acquire competency to flower and grow in the following spring. Climate change or adverse meteorological conditions can impair release of dormancy and delay bud break, hence jeopardizing fruit production and causing substantial economic losses. In order to characterize the molecular mechanisms controlling bud dormancy in apple we focused our work on the MADS-box transcription factor gene MdDAM1. We show that MdDAM1 silencing is required for the release of dormancy and bud break in spring. MdDAM1 transcript levels are drastically reduced in the low-chill varieties 'Anna' and 'Dorsett Golden' compared to 'Golden Delicious' corroborating its role as a key genetic factor controlling the release of bud dormancy in Malus species. The functional characterization of MdDAM1 using RNA silencing resulted in trees unable to cease growth in winter and that displayed an evergrowing, or evergreen, phenotype several years after transgenesis. These trees lost their capacity to enter in dormancy and produced leaves and shoots regardless of the season. A transcriptome study revealed that apple evergrowing lines are a genocopy of 'Golden Delicious' trees at the onset of the bud break with the significant gene repression of the related MADS-box gene MdDAM4 as a major feature. We provide the first functional evidence that MADS-box transcriptional factors are key regulators of bud dormancy in pome fruit trees and demonstrate that their silencing results in a defect of growth cessation in autumn. Our findings will help producing low-chill apple variants from the elite commercial cultivars that will withstand climate change.

Blooming under Mediterranean Climate: Estimating Cultivar-Specific Chill and Heat Requirements of Almond and Apple Trees Using a Statistical Approach

Climate change, and specifically global temperature increase, is expected to alter plant phenology. Temperate deciduous fruit trees have cultivar-specific chill and heat requirements to break dormancy and bloom. In this study, we aimed to estimate chill and heat requirements (in chill portions, CP, and growing degree hours, GDH, respectively) of 25 almond (30–36 years) and 12 apple (14–26 years) cultivars grown under a Mediterranean climate. The set included early and late blooming genotypes. Long-term phenological and temperature records were analyzed by means of partial least squares (PLS) regression. The main difference between early and late genotypes was chill requirement, ranging from 8.40 CP of early genotypes to 55.41 CP of extra-late genotypes. However, as chill requirements are quite easily attained by all almond cultivars in this study, year-to-year variations in actual blooming dates for each genotype are governed by variability of mean forcing temperatures. In contrast, different chill and heat combinations resulted in similar mean blooming dates for the studied apple cultivars. Mean temperature in both chilling and forcing phases determined their blooming time in the location studied. Overlaps and gaps between both phases were obtained. Despite some limitations, the PLS analysis has proven to be a useful tool to define both chilling and forcing phases. Nevertheless, since the delineation of these phases determine the total amount of CP and GDH, further efforts are needed to investigate the transition of these phases.

I Want to (Bud) Break Free: The Potential Role of DAM and SVP-Like Genes in Regulating Dormancy Cycle in Temperate Fruit Trees

Bud dormancy is an adaptive process that allows trees to survive the hard environmental conditions that they experience during the winter of temperate climates. Dormancy is characterized by the reduction in meristematic activity and the absence of visible growth. A prolonged exposure to cold temperatures is required to allow the bud resuming growth in response to warm temperatures. In fruit tree species, the dormancy cycle is believed to be regulated by a group of genes encoding MADS-box transcription factors. These genes are called DORMANCY-ASSOCIATED MADS-BOX (DAM) and are phylogenetically related to the Arabidopsis thaliana floral regulators SHORT VEGETATIVE PHASE (SVP) and AGAMOUS-LIKE 24. The interest in DAM and other orthologs of SVP (SVP-like) genes has notably increased due to the publication of several reports suggesting their role in the control of bud dormancy in numerous fruit species, including apple, pear, peach, Japanese apricot, and kiwifruit among others. In this review, we briefly describe the physiological bases of the dormancy cycle and how it is genetically regulated, with a particular emphasis on DAM and SVP-like genes. We also provide a detailed report of the most recent advances about the transcriptional regulation of these genes by seasonal cues, epigenetics and plant hormones. From this information, we propose a tentative classification of DAM and SVP-like genes based on their seasonal pattern of expression. Furthermore, we discuss the potential biological role of DAM and SVP-like genes in bud dormancy in antagonizing the function of FLOWERING LOCUS T-like genes. Finally, we draw a global picture of the possible role of DAM and SVP-like genes in the bud dormancy cycle and propose a model that integrates these genes in a molecular network of dormancy cycle regulation in temperate fruit trees.

The rise of phenology with climate change: an evaluation of IJB publications

In recent decades, phenology has become an important tool by which to measure both the impact of climate change on ecosystems and the feedback of ecosystems to the climate system. However, there has been little attempt to date to systematically quantify the increase in the number of scientific publications with a focus on phenology and climate change. In order to partially address this issue, we examined the number of articles (original papers, reviews and short communications) containing the terms 'phenology' and 'climate change' in the title, abstract or keywords, published in the International Journal of Biometeorology in the 60 years since its inception in 1957. We manually inspected all issues prior to 1987 for the search terms and subsequently used the search facility on the Web of Science online database. The overall number of articles published per decade remained relatively constant (255-378) but rose rapidly to 1053 in the most recent decade (2007-2016), accompanied by an increase (41-172) in the number of articles containing the search terms. A number of factors may have contributed to this rise, including the recognition of the value of phenology as an indicator of climate change and the initiation in 2010 of a series of conferences focusing on phenology which subsequently led to two special issues of the journal. The word 'phenology' was in use from the first issue, whereas 'climate change' only emerged in 1987 and peaked in 2014. New technologies such as satellite remote sensing and the internet led to an expansion of and greater access to a growing reservoir of phenological information. The application of phenological data included determining the impact of warming of phenophases, predicting wine quality and the pollen season, demonstrating the potential for mismatch to occur and both reconstructing and forecasting climate. Even though this analysis was limited to one journal, it is likely to be indicative of a similar trend across other scientific publications.

A collection of European sweet cherry phenology data for assessing climate change

Professional and scientific networks built around the production of sweet cherry (Prunus avium L.) led to the collection of phenology data for a wide range of cultivars grown in experimental sites characterized by highly contrasted climatic conditions. We present a dataset of flowering and maturity dates, recorded each year for one tree when available, or the average of several trees for each cultivar, over a period of 37 years (1978-2015). Such a dataset is extremely valuable for characterizing the phenological response to climate change, and the plasticity of the different cultivars' behaviour under different environmental conditions. In addition, this dataset will support the development of predictive models for sweet cherry phenology exploitable at the continental scale, and will help anticipate breeding strategies in order to maintain and improve sweet cherry production in Europe.

Differentiated dynamics of bud dormancy and growth in temperate fruit trees relating to bud phenology adaptation, the case of apple and almond trees

Few studies have focused on the characterization of bud dormancy and growth dynamics for temperate fruit species in temperate and mild cropping areas, although this is an appropriate framework to anticipate phenology adaptation facing future warming contexts which would potentially combine chill declines and heat increases. To examine this issue, two experimental approaches and field observations were used for high- and low-chill apple cultivars in temperate climate of southern France and in mild climates of northern Morocco and southern Brazil. Low-chill almond cultivars offered an additional relevant plant material for comparison with apple in northern Morocco. Divergent patterns of dormancy and growth dynamics were clearly found in apple tree between southern France and southern Brazil. Divergences were less pronounced between France and Morocco. A global view outlined main differences in the dormancy chronology and intensity, the transition between endordormancy and ecodormancy and the duration of ecodormancy. A key role of bud rehydration in the transition period was shown. High-chill cultivars would be submitted in mild conditions to heterogeneous rehydration capacities linked to insufficient chill fulfillment and excessive forcing linked to high temperatures. This would favor bud competitions and consequently excessive flowering durations and weak flowering. Low chilling requirements in apple and almond would conversely confer biological capacities to tolerate superficial dormancy and abrupt transition from endordormancy to ecodormancy without important heterogeneous rehydration states within buds. It may also assume that low-chill cultivars can also tolerate high temperatures during ecodormancy as well as extended flowering durations.

Can phenological models predict tree phenology accurately in the future? The unrevealed hurdle of endodormancy break

The onset of the growing season of trees has been earlier by 2.3 days per decade during the last 40 years in temperate Europe because of global warming. The effect of temperature on plant phenology is, however, not linear because temperature has a dual effect on bud development. On one hand, low temperatures are necessary to break bud endodormancy, and, on the other hand, higher temperatures are necessary to promote bud cell growth afterward. Different process-based models have been developed in the last decades to predict the date of budbreak of woody species. They predict that global warming should delay or compromise endodormancy break at the species equatorward range limits leading to a delay or even impossibility to flower or set new leaves. These models are classically parameterized with flowering or budbreak dates only, with no information on the endodormancy break date because this information is very scarce. Here, we evaluated the efficiency of a set of phenological models to accurately predict the endodormancy break dates of three fruit trees. Our results show that models calibrated solely with budbreak dates usually do not accurately predict the endodormancy break date. Providing endodormancy break date for the model parameterization results in much more accurate prediction of this latter, with, however, a higher error than that on budbreak dates. Most importantly, we show that models not calibrated with endodormancy break dates can generate large discrepancies in forecasted budbreak dates when using climate scenarios as compared to models calibrated with endodormancy break dates. This discrepancy increases with mean annual temperature and is therefore the strongest after 2050 in the southernmost regions. Our results claim for the urgent need of massive measurements of endodormancy break dates in forest and fruit trees to yield more robust projections of phenological changes in a near future.

Detecting QTLs and putative candidate genes involved in budbreak and flowering time in an apple multiparental population

In temperate trees, growth resumption in spring time results from chilling and heat requirements, and is an adaptive trait under global warming. Here, the genetic determinism of budbreak and flowering time was deciphered using five related full-sib apple families. Both traits were observed over 3 years and two sites and expressed in calendar and degree-days. Best linear unbiased predictors of genotypic effect or interaction with climatic year were extracted from mixed linear models and used for quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping, performed with an integrated genetic map containing 6849 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), grouped into haplotypes, and with a Bayesian pedigree-based analysis. Four major regions, on linkage group (LG) 7, LG10, LG12, and LG9, the latter being the most stable across families, sites, and years, explained 5.6-21.3% of trait variance. Co-localizations for traits in calendar days or growing degree hours (GDH) suggested common genetic determinism for chilling and heating requirements. Homologs of two major flowering genes, AGL24 and FT, were predicted close to LG9 and LG12 QTLs, respectively, whereas Dormancy Associated MADs-box (DAM) genes were near additional QTLs on LG8 and LG15. This suggests that chilling perception mechanisms could be common among perennial and annual plants. Progenitors with favorable alleles depending on trait and LG were identified and could benefit new breeding strategies for apple adaptation to temperature increase.

Differentiated Responses of Apple Tree Floral Phenology to Global Warming in Contrasting Climatic Regions

The responses of flowering phenology to temperature increases in temperate fruit trees have rarely been investigated in contrasting climatic regions. This is an appropriate framework for highlighting varying responses to diverse warming contexts, which would potentially combine chill accumulation (CA) declines and heat accumulation (HA) increases. To examine this issue, a data set was constituted in apple tree from flowering dates collected for two phenological stages of three cultivars in seven climate-contrasting temperate regions of Western Europe and in three mild regions, one in Northern Morocco and two in Southern Brazil. Multiple change-point models were applied to flowering date series, as well as to corresponding series of mean temperature during two successive periods, respectively determining for the fulfillment of chill and heat requirements. A new overview in space and time of flowering date changes was provided in apple tree highlighting not only flowering date advances as in previous studies but also stationary flowering date series. At global scale, differentiated flowering time patterns result from varying interactions between contrasting thermal determinisms of flowering dates and contrasting warming contexts. This may explain flowering date advances in most of European regions and in Morocco vs. stationary flowering date series in the Brazilian regions. A notable exception in Europe was found in the French Mediterranean region where the flowering date series was stationary. While the flowering duration series were stationary whatever the region, the flowering durations were far longer in mild regions compared to temperate regions. Our findings suggest a new warming vulnerability in temperate Mediterranean regions, which could shift toward responding more to chill decline and consequently experience late and extended flowering under future warming scenarios.

Chilling and heat requirements for leaf unfolding in European beech and sessile oak populations at the southern limit of their distribution range

With global warming, an advance in spring leaf phenology has been reported worldwide. However, it is difficult to forecast phenology for a given species, due to a lack of knowledge about chilling requirements. We quantified chilling and heat requirements for leaf unfolding in two European tree species and investigated their relative contributions to phenological variations between and within populations. We used an extensive database containing information about the leaf phenology of 14 oak and 10 beech populations monitored over elevation gradients since 2005. In parallel, we studied the various bud dormancy phases, in controlled conditions, by regularly sampling low- and high-elevation populations during fall and winter. Oak was 2.3 times more sensitive to temperature for leaf unfolding over the elevation gradient and had a lower chilling requirement for dormancy release than beech. We found that chilling is currently insufficient for the full release of dormancy, for both species, at the lowest elevations in the area studied. Genetic variation in leaf unfolding timing between and within oak populations was probably due to differences in heat requirement rather than differences in chilling requirement. Our results demonstrate the importance of chilling for leaf unfolding in forest trees and indicate that the advance in leaf unfolding phenology with increasing temperature will probably be less pronounced than forecasted. This highlights the urgent need to determine experimentally the interactions between chilling and heat requirements in forest tree species, to improve our understanding and modeling of changes in phenological timing under global warming.

Implications of climate change scenarios for agriculture in alpine regions--a case study in the Swiss Rhone catchment

Coping with climate change in agriculture requires knowledge of trends in agro-climatic conditions with a focus at the smaller scales where decisions are taken. As part of the EU FP7 ACQWA project, the situation was analyzed for agriculture in the case of the Swiss Rhone catchment (Valais) where cultivation of permanent crops (orchards and vineyards) and livestock production are the most important agro-economic activities. The aim of this study was to use daily data from four downscaled and bias corrected transient climate change scenarios to analyze changes in water and temperature related indices over the period 1951-2050 for three locations (Aigle, Sion, Montana) that are representative of different production zones in the catchment. The results indicate that most relevant implications are caused by projected changes in temperature and not in precipitation. They indicate an extension of the thermal growing season with potentially positive effects on pasture and livestock production, most pronounced at the mountain site (Montana), but a trend towards increasing risks of frost in permanent crops and in heat stress for livestock at the valley bottom (Aigle, Sion). The increase in water requirement for irrigation in 2021-2050 relative to 1981-2009 is moderate (4-16%, depending on location). However, in years with low amounts of snow and rain, in small catchments with a nival regime, reduced water supply by rivers could restrict the surface area of grassland that can be irrigated, particularly during springtime. It is concluded that coping with heat-related risks may be most needed at the lower cropland and pasture sites while water-related issues would become more relevant in more elevated locations where pasture-based livestock production is the dominant type of agricultural land use.

Chilling and heat requirements for flowering in temperate fruit trees

Climate change has affected the rates of chilling and heat accumulation, which are vital for flowering and production, in temperate fruit trees, but few studies have been conducted in the cold-winter climates of East Asia. To evaluate tree responses to variation in chill and heat accumulation rates, partial least squares regression was used to correlate first flowering dates of chestnut (Castanea mollissima Blume) and jujube (Zizyphus jujube Mill.) in Beijing, China, with daily chill and heat accumulation between 1963 and 2008. The Dynamic Model and the Growing Degree Hour Model were used to convert daily records of minimum and maximum temperature into horticulturally meaningful metrics. Regression analyses identified the chilling and forcing periods for chestnut and jujube. The forcing periods started when half the chilling requirements were fulfilled. Over the past 50 years, heat accumulation during tree dormancy increased significantly, while chill accumulation remained relatively stable for both species. Heat accumulation was the main driver of bloom timing, with effects of variation in chill accumulation negligible in Beijing’s cold-winter climate. It does not seem likely that reductions in chill will have a major effect on the studied species in Beijing in the near future. Such problems are much more likely for trees grown in locations that are substantially warmer than their native habitats, such as temperate species in the subtropics and tropics.

Exploring bud dormancy completion with a combined architectural and phenological analysis: the case of apple trees in contrasting winter temperature conditions

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

The branching pattern and phenology of trees result from interactions between the tree's genetic constitution and environmental conditions. Temperature strongly affects the duration of bud dormancy and further shoot growth. Our hypothesis was that shoot architecture is strongly affected by winter temperatures determining both the position and budburst of vegetative laterals with a lower effect on their outgrowth.

METHODS

The study was conducted on four apple cultivars characterized by various chilling requirements and grown in two contrasting winter temperature conditions. A two-step approach was designed to quantify at the shoot scale first the branching pattern and second two phenological stages of vegetative laterals, budburst and outgrowth. A categorical variable, the branching zone, was built to summarize the lateral position along the shoot. It was integrated into the phenological analysis as a factor together with the cultivar and the winter temperature.

KEY RESULTS

Temperature had a main effect on the distribution of vegetative laterals along the shoot. It also strongly affected budburst, which was also affected by the cultivar and the branching zone. The outgrowth of the lateral was not significantly affected by temperature but was significantly affected by the cultivar and the branching zone. Furthermore, the delayed senescence and subsequent leaf persistence during winter, characterizing the apple tree in the mild winter temperature condition, had only a weak effect on the distribution of vegetative laterals and on budburst and lateral outgrowth.

CONCLUSIONS

The actual shoot architecture and budburst result from an ordered sequence of events with a pivotal role of winter temperatures on the dormancy completion of individual lateral buds. Endogenous factors related to the cultivar branching pattern overtake the temperature effect on the lateral outgrowth.

Changes in the taste and textural attributes of apples in response to climate change

The effects of climate change on the taste and textural attributes of foods remain largely unknown, despite much public interest. On the basis of 30–40 years of records, we provide evidence that the taste and textural attributes of apples have changed as a result of recent global warming. Decreases in both acid concentration, fruit firmness and watercore development were observed regardless of the maturity index used for harvest date (e.g., calendar date, number of days after full bloom, peel colour and starch concentration), whereas in some cases the soluble-solids concentration increased; all such changes may have resulted from earlier blooming and higher temperatures during the maturation period. These results suggest that the qualities of apples in the market are undergoing long-term changes.