Projecting the impact of climate change on phenology of winter wheat in northern Lithuania

Responses of wheat kernel weight to diverse allelic combinations under projected climate change conditions

Introduction

In wheat, kernel weight (KW) is a key determinant of grain yield (GY). However, it is often overlooked when improving wheat productivity under climate warming. Moreover, little is known about the complex effects of genetic and climatic factors on KW. Here, we explored the responses of wheat KW to diverse allelic combinations under projected climate warming conditions.

Methods

To focus on KW, we selected a subset of 81 out of 209 wheat varieties with similar GY, biomass, and kernel number (KN) and focused on their thousand-kernel weight (TKW). We genotyped them at eight kompetitive allele-specific polymerase chain reaction markers closely associated with TKW. Subsequently, we calibrated and evaluated the process-based model known as Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM-Wheat) based on a unique dataset including phenotyping, genotyping, climate, soil physicochemistry, and on-farm management information. We then used the calibrated APSIM-Wheat model to estimate TKW under eight allelic combinations (81 wheat varieties), seven sowing dates, and the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) designated SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, driven by climate projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) BCC-CSM2-MR, CanESM5, EC-Earth3-Veg, MIROC-ES2L, and UKESM1-0-LL.

Results

The APSIM-Wheat model reliably simulated wheat TKW with a root mean square error (RMSE) of < 3.076 g TK-1 and R2 of > 0.575 (P < 0.001). The analysis of variance based on the simulation output showed that allelic combination, climate scenario, and sowing date extremely significantly affected TKW (P < 0.001). The impact of the interaction allelic combination × climate scenario on TKW was also significant (P < 0.05). Meanwhile, the variety parameters and their relative importance in the APSIM-Wheat model accorded with the expression of the allelic combinations. Under the projected climate scenarios, the favorable allelic combinations (TaCKX-D1b + Hap-7A-1 + Hap-T + Hap-6A-G + Hap-6B-1 + H1g + A1b for SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) mitigated the negative effects of climate change on TKW.

Discussion

The present study demonstrated that optimizing favorable allelic combinations can help achieve high wheat TKW. The findings of this study clarify the responses of wheat KW to diverse allelic combinations under projected climate change conditions. Additionally, the present study provides theoretical and practical reference for marker-assisted selection of high TKW in wheat breeding.

Effects of climatic and cultivar changes on winter wheat phenology in central Lithuania

It is essential to understand how climate change and varieties affect crop phenology and yields to adapt to future climate change. The aim of this study was to analyse the phenological development trends of three winter wheat cultivars (1990-2020) to identify the most critical meteorological-climatic factors influencing the development and yield of the cultivars and to investigate the heat requirements for each phenological phase to reveal the potential of the different cultivars to adapt to the warming climate. The observed dates of green-up, the beginning of stem elongation, and the grain development advanced significantly, but the timing of maturity changed insignificantly during the period of 1990-2020. The most marked change was related to the shortening of the period from sowing to green-up. The green-up dates were related to the mean temperature of the period after sowing. The occurrence of stem elongation and grain development dates were negatively correlated with the mean temperature in May. Significant correlations were found between temperature and duration from sowing to green-up and positive from stem elongation to grain development. The change of cultivar led to earlier green-up and grain development dates, but cultivar choise had no influence on sowing, stem elongation, and maturity dates from 1990 to 2020. The newer cultivar Skagen was more successful in exploiting increased thermal resources. The heat requirements remained almost unchanged during the vegetative development period, while the heat amount required during the reproductive period increased by about 15%. These findings demonstrate that the choice of crop cultivars with higher thermal requirements may be an appropriate adaptation mean to achieve higher yields in response to climate change, at least in the middle latitudes.

Simulation of Wheat Response to Future Climate Change Based on Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project Phase 6 Multi-Model Ensemble Projections in the North China Plain

Global climate change results in more extreme temperature events, which poses a serious threat to wheat production in the North China Plain (NCP). Assessing the potential impact of temperature extremes on crop growth and yield is an important prerequisite for exploring crop adaptation measures to deal with changing climate. In this study, we evaluated the effects of heat and frost stress during wheat sensitive period on grain yield at four representative sites over the NCP using Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM)-wheat model driven by the climate projections from 20 Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) during two future periods of 2031-2060 (2040S) and 2071-2100 (2080S) under societal development pathway (SSP) 245 and SSP585 scenarios. We found that extreme temperature stress had significantly negative impacts on wheat yield. However, increased rainfall and the elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration could partly compensate for the yield loss caused by extreme temperature events. Under future climate scenarios, the risk of exposure to heat stress around flowering had no great change but frost risk in spring increased slightly mainly due to warming climate accelerating wheat development and advancing the flowering time to a cooler period of growing season. Wheat yield loss caused by heat and frost stress increased by -0.6 to 4.2 and 1.9-12.8% under SSP585_2080S, respectively. We also found that late sowing and selecting cultivars with a long vegetative growth phase (VGP) could significantly compensate for the negative impact of extreme temperature on wheat yields in the south of NCP. However, selecting heat resistant cultivars in the north NCP and both heat and frost resistant cultivars in the central NCP may be a more effective way to alleviate the negative effect of extreme temperature on wheat yields. Our findings showed that not only heat risk should be concerned under climate warming, but also frost risk should not be ignored.

Phenological trends of multi-taxonomic groups in Latvia, 1970-2018

Phenology provides intimate insights into ongoing changes in nature and seasonality with respect to humans. In this study, the most complete volunteer observer phenological data set for the territory of Latvia from 1970 to 2018 was evaluated. The data set includes observations of 159 phases of eight taxonomical groups, as well as abiotic phenomena such as the first snow, last spring frost, and agrarian activities. With reducing dimensionality, a hierarchical cluster analysis was used to group the 66 phenological phases of most observations into 7 clusters. The largest changes were observed in the early spring phenological phases of the pioneer species such as the start of flowering of Corylus avellana (hazel), Alnus incana (grey alder) and Populus tremula (aspen), noted as -8 days/decade. The trend of the spring emergence of insects and spring migratory birds also showed a negative tendency. The phenology of crops and agrarian activities has not changed significantly. The trends of the autumn phases were heterogeneous-leaf colouration and fall for some species (Populus tremula) and (Acer platanoides, Norway maple) was recorded on average later; for other species, there was a slightly earlier trend (Betula pendula, silver birch; Tilia cordata, linden). Earlier onset of the spring phases affects the changes in the length of the growing season (for Acer platanoides + 7.7 days/decade; Betula pendula + 3.3 days/decade). Since 1990, it has been common that many phases have begun sooner (particularly spring phases), whilst abiotic autumn phases have been characterised by late years. This study has shown that significant seasonal changes have taken place across the Latvian landscape due to climate change.

Chemical and Biological Enhancement Effects of Biochar on Wheat Growth and Yield under Arid Field Conditions

Nitrogen (N) losses are prevalent under South East Asia’s due to high N fertilizer inputs, but low N fertilizer use efficiency. This leaves a large quantity of reactive N at risk of loss to the environment. Biochar has been found to reduce N losses across a variety of soil types, however, there is limited data available for semi-arid climates, particularly at a field-scale. Herein we present an exploration of the biological and chemical enhancement effects observed of a cotton stalk-based biochar on wheat growth and yield under arid field conditions. The biochar was treated with urea-N and biofertilizer (bio-power) in different treatment setups. The six experimental treatments included; (i) a full N dose “recommended for wheat crops in the region” (104 kg N ha−1) as a positive control; (ii) a half N dose (52 kg N ha−1); (iii) a half N dose + biofertilizer (4.94 kg ha−1) as a soil mixture; (iv) a half N dose + biofertilizer as a seed inoculation; (v) a full N dose as broadcast + biochar (5 t ha−1) inoculated with biofertilizer; and (vi) a full N dose loaded on biochar + biofertilizer applied as a soil mixture. The half dose N application or biofertilizer addition as soil mix/seed inoculated/biochar inoculation with biofertilizer caused reduced wheat growth and yield compared to the control (conventional N fertilization). However, co-application of chemically enhanced biochar (loaded with a full N dose) and biofertilizer as soil mixture significantly increased the crop growth rate (CGR) and leaf area index (LAI). A significantly higher crop growth and canopy development led to a higher light interception and radiation use efficiency (RUE) for total dry matter (TDM) and grain yield (11% greater than control) production compared to the control. A greater grain yield, observed for the full N dose loaded on biochar + biofertilizer applied as a soil mixture, is attributed to prolonged N availability as indicated by greater plant and soil N content at harvest and different crop growth stages, respectively. The present study has improved our understanding of how the application of nitrogen loaded biochar and biofertilizer as soil mixtures can synergize to positively affect wheat growth and soil-nitrogen retention under arid environmental conditions.