Finnish National Phenological Network 1997-2017: from observations to trend detection

The written history of plant phenology: shaping primary sources for secondary publications

Phenological research establishes the science of nature's natural calendar. This research, the monitoring and analysis of seasonal rhythms of plants and animals, is commonly based on citizen science data. Such data may be digitized from primary sources provided by the citizen scientist's original phenological diaries. Secondary data sources are formed by historical publications (for example, yearbooks and climate bulletins). While primary data has the advantage of first-hand notetaking, its digitization may, in practice, be time-consuming. Contrastingly, secondary data can contain well-organized typesetting, making digitization less labour-intensive. However, secondary data can be reshaped by the motivations of the historical actors who were collating the data. This study compared data from 1876-1894 gathered originally by citizen scientists (primary data) and the secondary data founded upon the previous primary data, later published by the Finnish Society of Sciences and Letters as a series of phenological yearbooks. In the secondary data, the recorded numbers of taxa and their phenological stages appeared to be fewer and phenological events standardized, with an increased prevalence of agricultural phenology (at the cost of autumn phenology). Moreover, it seems the secondary data had been screened for potential outliers. While secondary sources may provide current phenologists with coherent sets of relevant data, future users must be aware of potential data reshaping resulting from the preferences of historical actors. These actors may weigh and limit the original observations according to their own criteria and preferences.

Combining range and phenology shifts offers a winning strategy for boreal Lepidoptera

Species can adapt to climate change by adjusting in situ or by dispersing to new areas, and these strategies may complement or enhance each other. Here, we investigate temporal shifts in phenology and spatial shifts in northern range boundaries for 289 Lepidoptera species by using long-term data sampled over two decades. While 40% of the species neither advanced phenology nor moved northward, nearly half (45%) used one of the two strategies. The strongest positive population trends were observed for the minority of species (15%) that both advanced flight phenology and shifted their northern range boundaries northward. We show that, for boreal Lepidoptera, a combination of phenology and range shifts is the most viable strategy under a changing climate. Effectively, this may divide species into winners and losers based on their propensity to capitalize on this combination, with potentially large consequences on future community composition.

Phenological trends of multi-taxonomic groups in Latvia, 1970-2018

Phenology provides intimate insights into ongoing changes in nature and seasonality with respect to humans. In this study, the most complete volunteer observer phenological data set for the territory of Latvia from 1970 to 2018 was evaluated. The data set includes observations of 159 phases of eight taxonomical groups, as well as abiotic phenomena such as the first snow, last spring frost, and agrarian activities. With reducing dimensionality, a hierarchical cluster analysis was used to group the 66 phenological phases of most observations into 7 clusters. The largest changes were observed in the early spring phenological phases of the pioneer species such as the start of flowering of Corylus avellana (hazel), Alnus incana (grey alder) and Populus tremula (aspen), noted as -8 days/decade. The trend of the spring emergence of insects and spring migratory birds also showed a negative tendency. The phenology of crops and agrarian activities has not changed significantly. The trends of the autumn phases were heterogeneous-leaf colouration and fall for some species (Populus tremula) and (Acer platanoides, Norway maple) was recorded on average later; for other species, there was a slightly earlier trend (Betula pendula, silver birch; Tilia cordata, linden). Earlier onset of the spring phases affects the changes in the length of the growing season (for Acer platanoides + 7.7 days/decade; Betula pendula + 3.3 days/decade). Since 1990, it has been common that many phases have begun sooner (particularly spring phases), whilst abiotic autumn phases have been characterised by late years. This study has shown that significant seasonal changes have taken place across the Latvian landscape due to climate change.