Mortality and thermal environment (UTCI) in Poland-long-term, multi-city study

Good weather for a ride (or not?): how weather conditions impact road accidents - a case study from Wielkopolska (Poland)

This study offers a likely assessment of extreme meteorological events' impact on human perceptivity, frame of mind or even health during driving which might have had a consequence as a car accident. Research covered an analysis of car accidents during period 2010-2019 in the Wielkopolska (Poland) and four indices like maximum daily temperature, maximum value of humidex, difference between maximum temperatures observed from day to day and also difference between mean atmospheric pressure at the sea level observed from day to day. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) approach was used to obtain the relationship between these indices and car accidents. Our finding evidence that the "good weather for a ride" conditions are actually generating an increased risk of accidents. For indices related to high temperature, i.e., maximum temperature and humidex, it was possible to identify the critical values by which the risks of car accidents were the highest.

Characteristic of bioclimatic conditions in Poland based on Physiologically Equivalent Temperature

The aim of the study was to characterise bioclimatic conditions in Poland in the times of progressing warming. This type of research permits the verification whether the progressing climate warming also translates into a change in bioclimatic conditions. This study was based on data obtained for the period 1966-2021 from 37 synoptic stations located in Poland. All the data series were uniform and obtained from the data base of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management-National Research Institute (IMGW-PIB). The study revealed high variability of bioclimatic conditions in Poland both in spatial and in temporal terms. The lowest mean annual PET values were recorded in the north and north-east of the country and the highest in the south-west of Poland. The study revealed changes in the frequency of occurrence of days with cold and heat stress, as well as days with no thermal stress. The most intensive changes were determined for days with cold stress. A decrease in the number of days in this category translated into an increase in the number of days with no thermal stress and days with heat stress.

Biometeorological conditions during cold spells in south-east Poland and west Ukraine

The aim of this research is to analyze the biometeorological conditions, based on the Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) thermal index, during cold spells (CSs) in south-east Poland and west Ukraine during the years 1966-2021. The research shows a high variability of the occurrence of CSs in the study period and a clear increase in the frequency and total duration of CSs in the east of the study area. The number of CSs in the analyzed years varies from 6 cases in the west (in Katowice) to 34 in the east of the study area (in Shepetivka). The total duration of CSs varied from 26 days (in Raciborz and Katowice) to 166 days (in Rivne). At the majority of stations, CSs occurred most frequently in the first two decades (1966/1967-1975/1976, 1976/1977-1985/986) and in the last full decade (2006/2007-2015/2016). The average PET values at 12:00 UTC during CSs decreased eastwards throughout the study domain and were generally lower than -20.0 °C in the west of Ukraine, while in south-east Poland varied between -18.1 and -20.0 °C. At 40% of stations across the study domain, the lowest average PET values were recorded during a cold spell in January 1987, with PET values varying from -28.0 °C in Chernivtsi to -12.7 °C in Yaremche. The longest or one of the longest spells in most stations (in 77% of stations across the study domain) was the cold spell of 2012 and characterized by mean PET values ranging from -25.4 °C in Rivne to -19.5 °C in Zakopane.

The effects of summer ambient temperature on total mortality in Serbia

In the context of recent climate change, temperature-attributable mortality has become an important public health threat worldwide. A large number of studies in Europe have identified a relationship between temperature and mortality, while only a limited number of scholars provided evidence for Serbia. In order to provide more evidence for better management of health resources at the regional and local level, this study aims to assess the impact of summer temperature on the population in Serbia, using daily average temperature (Ta) and mortality (CDR (crude death rate) per 100,000). The analysis was done for five areas (Belgrade, Novi Sad, Niš, Loznica, and Vranje), covering the summer (June-August) period of 2001-2015. In order to quantify the Ta-related CDR, a generalized additive model (GAM) assuming a quasi-Poisson distribution with log as the link function was used. Five regression models were constructed, for each area, revealing a statistically significant positive relationship between Ta and CDR in four areas. The effect of Ta on CDR was defined as the relative risk (RR), which was obtained as the exponential regression coefficient of the models. RR indicates that a 1 °C increase in Ta at lag0 was associated with an increase in CDR of 1.7% for Belgrade, Novi Sad, and Niš and 2% for Loznica. The model for Vranje did not quantify a statistically significant increase in CDR due to Ta (RR=1.006, 95% CI 0.991-1.020). Similar results were confirmed for gender, with a slightly higher risk for women. Analysis across lag structure showed different exposure, but the highest effect of Ta mainly occurs over the short term and persists for 3 days.

Assessment of Summer Regional Outdoor Heat Stress and Regional Comfort in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Agglomeration Over the Last 40 Years

Outdoor thermal comfort (OTC) is critical for public health, labor productivity, and human life. Growing extreme heat events caused by climate change have a serious impact on OTCs, especially in urban areas. Quantitatively characterizing and evaluating the spatiotemporal changes in OTCs are essential, and more applications are needed in urban agglomerations. Therefore, taking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration as the study area, this study aimed to quantitatively assess the summer regional OTC from 1981 to 2020. First, the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) was used as the indicator of daily thermal stress, and then a Composite Thermal Comfort Score was proposed to evaluate the long-term, summertime, regional OTC considering the extent, duration, and intensity of daytime and nighttime thermal stress. The results showed that (a) the increase in UTCI (0.32°C/10a at daytime and 0.21°C/10a at nighttime) and heat stress frequency (0.88 at daytime and 0.39 d/10a at nighttime) were manifested over BTH, indicating a worse OTC. Spatial and temporal heterogeneity was also demonstrated. (b) The general OTC showed a decreasing north-south gradient pattern. At daytime, the northern mountainous zone presented the best OTC, the southern plain zone, especially Hengshui, Langfang, and Cangzhou, showed the worst. At nighttime, the mountain-plain transition zone showed the best OTC, the northern mountainous zone showed the worst since more cold stress occurred. Our findings will be useful in informing climate change adaptation strategies to ensure urban resilience as extreme heat increases in the context of climate change.

The influence of heat and cold waves on mortality in Russian subarctic cities with varying climates

Publications on ambient temperature-related mortality among Arctic or subarctic populations are extremely rare. While circumpolar areas cover large portions of several European countries, Canada, and the USA, the population of these territories is relatively small, and the data needed for statistical analysis of the health impacts of extreme temperature events are frequently insufficient. This study utilizes standard time series regression techniques to estimate relative increases in cause- and age-specific daily mortality rates during heat waves and cold spells in four Russian cities with a subarctic climate. The statistical significance of the obtained effect estimates tends to be greater in the continental climate than in the marine climate. A small meta-analysis was built around the obtained site-specific health effects. The effects were homogeneous and calculated for the selected weather-dependent health outcomes. The relative risks of mortality due to ischemic heart disease, all diseases of the circulatory system, and all non-accidental causes during cold spells in the age group ≥ 65 years were 1.20 (95% CI: 1.11-1.29), 1.14 (1.08-1.20), and 1.12 (1.07-1.17), respectively. Cold spells were more harmful to the health of the residents of Murmansk, Archangelsk, and Magadan than heat waves, and only in Yakutsk, heat waves were more dangerous. The results of this study can help the public health authorities develop specific measures for the prevention of excess deaths during cold spells and heat waves in the exposed subarctic populations.

Gender differences in adaptation to heat in Spain (1983-2018)

In Spain the average temperature has increased by 1.7 °C since pre-industrial times. There has been an increase in heat waves both in terms of frequency and intensity, with a clear impact in terms of population health. The effect of heat waves on daily mortality presents important territorial differences. Gender also affects these impacts, as a determinant that conditions social inequalities in health. There is evidence that women may be more susceptible to extreme heat than men, although there are relatively few studies that analyze differences in the vulnerability and adaptation to heat by sex. This could be related to physiological causes. On the other hand, one of the indicators used to measure vulnerability to heat in a population and its adaptation is the minimum mortality temperature (MMT) and its temporal evolution. The aim of this study was to analyze the values of MMT in men and women and its temporal evolution during the 1983-2018 period in Spain's provinces. An ecological, longitudinal retrospective study was carried out of time series data, based on maximum daily temperature and daily mortality data corresponding to the study period. Using cubic and quadratic fits between daily mortality rates and the temperature, the minimum values of these functions were determined, which allowed for determining MMT values. Furthermore, we used an improved methodology that provided for the estimation of missing MMT values when polynomial fits were inexistent. This analysis was carried out for each year. Later, based on the annual values of MMT, a linear fit was carried out to determine the rate of evolution of MMT for men and for women at the province level. Average MMT for all of Spain's provinces was 29.4 °C in the case of men and 28.7 °C in the case of women. The MMT for men was greater than that of women in 86 percent of the total provinces analyzed, which indicates greater vulnerability among women. In terms of the rate of variation in MMT during the period analyzed, that of men was 0.39 °C/decade, compared to 0.53 °C/decade for women, indicating greater adaptation to heat among women, compared to men. The differences found between men and women were statistically significant. At the province level, the results show great heterogeneity. Studies carried out at the local level are needed to provide knowledge about those factors that can explain these differences at the province level, and to allow for incorporating a gender perspective in the implementation of measures for adaptation to high temperatures.

Assessment of walkability and walkable routes of a 15-min city for heat adaptation: Development of a dynamic attenuation model of heat stress

Actively addressing urban heat challenges is an urgent task for numerous cities. Existing studies have primarily developed heat mitigation strategies and analyzed their cooling performance, while the adaptation strategies are far from comprehensive to protect citizens from heat-related illnesses and deaths. To address this research gap, this paper aims to enhance people's adaptation capacity by investigating walkability within fifteen-minute cities (FMC). Taking cognizance of thermal comfort, health, and safety, this paper developed a dynamic attenuation model (DAM) of heat stress, along with heat stress aggravation, continuance, and alleviation. An indicator of remaining tolerant heat discomfort (R _t ) was proposed with the integration of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) to assess heat-related walkability. Following an empirical study among 128 residents in Mianyang, China, and assessing four levels of heat stress, the maximum tolerant heat discomfort was determined to be 60 min. Furthermore, the DAM was applied to an FMC with 12 neighborhoods in Fucheng, Mianyang, China. The results indicate that for each neighborhood, the street was generally walkable with an R _t ranging between 15 and 30 min, after walking for 900 m. A population-based FMC walkability was further determined, finding that the core area of the FMC was favorable for walking with an R _t of 45-46 min, and the perpetual areas were also walkable with an R _t of 15-30 min. Based on these results, suggestions on the frequency of public services (frequently used, often used, and occasionally used) planning were presented. Overall, this paper provides a theoretical model for analyzing walkability and outlines meaningful implications for planning heat adaptation in resilient, safe, comfortable, and livable FMCs.

Universal Climate Thermal Index as a prognostic tool in medical science in the context of climate change: A systematic review

The assessment of the impact of meteorological factors on the epidemiology of various diseases and on human pathophysiology and physiology requires a comprehensive approach and new tools independent of currently occurring climate change. The thermal comfort index, i.e., Universal Climate Thermal Index (UTCI), is gaining more and more recognition from researchers interested in such assessments. This index facilitates the evaluation of the impact of cold stress and heat stress on the human organism and the assessment of the incidence of weather-related diseases. This work aims at identifying those areas of medical science for which the UTCI was applied for scientific research as well as its popularization among clinicians, epidemiologists, and specialists in public health management. This is a systematic review of literature found in Pubmed, Sciencedirect and Web of Science databases from which, consistent with PRISMA guidelines, original papers employing the UTCI in studies related to health, physiological parameters, and epidemiologic applications were extracted. Out of the total number of 367 papers identified in the databases, 33 original works were included in the analysis. The selected publications were analyzed in terms of determining the areas of medical science in which the UTCI was applied. The majority of studies were devoted to the broadly understood mortality, cardiac events, and emergency medicine. A significant disproportion between publications discussing heat stress and those utilizing the UTCI for its assessment was revealed.

Machine Learning Analyzed Weather Conditions as an Effective Means in the Predicting of Acute Coronary Syndrome Prevalence

Background

The prediction of the number of acute coronary syndromes (ACSs) based on the weather conditions in the individual climate zones is not effective. We sought to investigate whether an artificial intelligence system might be useful in this prediction.

Methods

Between 2008 and 2018, a total of 105,934 patients with ACS were hospitalized in Lesser Poland Province, one covered by two meteorological stations. The predicted daily number of ACS has been estimated with the Random Forest machine learning system based on air temperature (°C), air pressure (hPa), dew point temperature (Td) (°C), relative humidity (RH) (%), wind speed (m/s), and precipitation (mm) and their daily extremes and ranges derived from the day of ACS and from 6 days before ACS.

Results

Of 840 pairwise comparisons between individual weather parameters and the number of ACS, 128 (15.2%) were significant but weak with the correlation coefficients ranged from −0.16 to 0.16. None of weather parameters correlated with the number of ACS in all the seasons and stations. The number of ACS was higher in warm front days vs. days without any front [40 (29–50) vs. 38 (27–48), respectively, P < 0.05]. The correlation between the predicted and observed daily number of ACS derived from machine learning was 0.82 with 95% CI of 0.80–0.84 (P < 0.001). The greatest importance for machine learning (range 0–1.0) among the parameters reached Td daily range with 1.00, pressure daily range with 0.875, pressure maximum daily range with 0.864, and RH maximum daily range with 0.853, whereas among the clinical parameters reached hypertension daily range with 1.00 and diabetes mellitus daily range with 0.28. For individual seasons and meteorological stations, the correlations between the predicted and observed number of ACS have ranged for spring from 0.73 to 0.77 (95% CI 0.68–0.82), for summer from 0.72 to 0.76 (95% CI 0.66–0.81), for autumn from 0.72 to 0.83 (95% CI 0.67–0.87), and for winter from 0.76 to 0.79 (95% CI 0.71–0.83) (P < 0.001 for each).

Conclusion

The weather parameters have proven useful in predicting the prevalence of ACS in a temperate climate zone for all the seasons, if analyzed with an artificial intelligence system. Simultaneously, the analysis of individual weather parameters or frontal scenarios has provided only weak univariate relationships. These findings will require validation in other climatic zones.

Heat-Related Mortality in Two Regions of Poland: Focus on Urban and Rural Areas during the Most Severe and Long-Lasting Heatwaves

The vast majority of studies on heat-related mortality are focused on large cities. The aim of this study is to fill this research gap and to estimate the impact of high temperatures on the risk of death in smaller towns and villages. The results show that increased mortality is not only a problem in large cities. The risk of death, although usually slightly lower than in highly populated areas, may be higher for the age-related risk group. At temperatures above 35 °C, it may exceed 1.3 in smaller towns and even 1.6 in villages. The increase in mortality during five selected heat waves of high intensity and long duration was also studied for two regions of Poland: Małopolska and Wielkopolska. Towns with a population of less than 10,000 in Małopolska region, during the 2006 heatwave, experienced an increase in the number of deaths by as much as 18%. At the same time in the largest city of Małopolska-Kraków, the death toll rose by 4%. This paper also presents some differences between regions in terms of the impact of heat waves: in the lowland region of Wielkopolska, the mortality rate is generally higher than in the upland region of Małopolska.

Biometeorological Conditions during the August 2015 Mega-Heat Wave and the Summer 2010 Mega-Heat Wave in Ukraine

The human-biometeorological conditions in Ukraine during two mega-heat waves were analyzed. The evaluation is based on physiologically equivalent temperature (PET). The calculation of PET is performed utilizing the RayMan model. The results revealed these two mega-heat waves produced strenuous human-biometeorological conditions on the territory of Ukraine. During the summer 2010 mega-heat wave, strong and extreme heat stress prevailed at about midday at the stations where this atmospheric phenomenon was observed. The mega-heat wave of August 2015 was characterized by a lower heat load. The diurnal variation of PET values during the researched mega-HW was similar to that of the diurnal variation of air temperature with minimum values in the early morning and maximum values in the afternoon. On the territory where mega-heat waves were observed, the number of days during which heat stress occurred for 9 h amounted to 97.6% for the period from 31 July to 12 August 2010 and 77.1% for the mega-heat wave of August 2015.

Heat strain and mortality effects of prolonged central European heat wave-an example of June 2019 in Poland

The occurrence of long-lasting severe heat stress, such as in July-August 2003, July 2010, or in April-May 2018 has been one of the biggest meteorological threats in Europe in recent years. The paper focuses on the biometeorological and mortality effects of the hot June that was observed in Central Europe in 2019. The basis of the study was hourly and daily Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) values at meteorological stations in Poland for June 2019. The average monthly air temperature and UTCI values from 1951 to 2018 were analysed as background. Grosswetterlagen calendar of atmospheric circulation was used to assess synoptic conditions of heat wave. Several heat strain measures were applied : net heat storage (S), modelled heart rate (HR), sultriness (HSI), and UTCI index. Actual total mortality (TM) and modelled strong heat-related mortality (SHRM) were taken as indicators of biometeorological consequences of the hot June in 2019. The results indicate that prolonged persistence of unusually warm weather in June 2019 was determined by the synoptic conditions occurring over the European region and causing advection of tropical air. They led to the emergence of heat waves causing 10% increase in TM and 5 times bigger SHRM then in preceding 10 years. Such increase in SHRM was an effect of overheating and overload of circulatory system of human organism.

The Role of Trees in Winter Air Purification on Children’s Routes to School

Air pollution is now considered to be the world’s largest environmental health threat, accounting for millions of deaths globally each year. The social group that is particularly exposed to the harmful effects of air pollution is children. Their vulnerability results from higher breathing frequency and being subject to concentration peaks just above the ground. The negative effects of ambient particulate matter also depend on the time of exposure. A daily route to school can constitute an important component of children’s physical activity, but air pollution can pose a threat to their health. Numerous studies have proved that high loads of PM can be effectively reduced by vegetation. Little is known, however, on whether vegetation can also reduce PM during leaf dormancy. In this study we investigated the role of trees in air purification during the leafless period in children’s routes to selected schools located in Warsaw during winter. The results obtained show a weak impact of the tree canopy in winter.

Universal thermal climate index associations with mortality, hospital admissions, and road accidents in Bavaria

When meteorological conditions deviate from the optimal range for human well-being, the risks of illness, injury, and death increase, and such impacts are feared in particular with more frequent and intense extreme weather conditions resulting from climate change. Thermal indices, such as the universal thermal climate index (UTCI), can better assess human weather-related stresses by integrating multiple weather components. This paper quantifies and compares the seasonal and spatial association of UTCI with mortality, morbidity, and road accidents in the federal state of Bavaria, Germany. Linear regression was applied to seasonally associate daily 56 million hospital admissions and 2.5 million death counts (1995-2015) as well as approximately 930,000 road accidents and 1.7 million people injured (2002-2015) with spatially interpolated same day- and lagged- (up to 14 days) average UTCI values. Additional linear regressions were performed stratifying by age, gender, region, and district. UTCI effects were clear in all three health outcomes studied: Increased UTCI resulted in immediate (1-2 days) rises in morbidity and even more strongly in mortality in summer, and lagged (up to 14 days) decreases in fall, winter, and spring. The strongest UTCI effects were found for road accidents where increasing UTCI led to immediate decreases in daily road accidents in winter but pronounced increases in all other seasons. Differences in UTCI effects were observed e.g. between in warmer north-western regions (Franconia, more districts with heat stress-related mortality, but hospital admissions for lung, heart and external reasons decreasing with summer heat stress), the touristic alpine regions in the south (immediate effect of increasing UTCI on road accidents in summer), and the colder south-eastern regions (increasing hospital admissions for lung, heart and external reasons in winter with UTCI). Districts with high percentages of elderly suffered from higher morbidity and mortality, particularly in winter. The influences of UTCI as well as the spatial and temporal patterns of this influence call for improved infrastructure planning and resource allocation in the health sector.

Long-term changes in hazardous heat and cold stress in humans: multi-city study in Poland

Significant changes in climate variables in the last decades resulted in changes of perceived climate conditions. However, there are only few studies discussing long-lasting changes in bioclimatic conditions. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to present the temporal and spatial distribution of hazardous heat and cold stress conditions in different regions of Poland. Its focus is on long-lasting changes in such conditions in the period 1951-2018. To assess changes in hazardous thermal stress conditions, the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) was used. UTCI values at 12 UTC hour (respectively 1 pm winter time, 2 pm summer time) were calculated daily based on air temperature, relative humidity, total cloud cover and wind speed at 24 stations representing the whole area of Poland. We found that the greatest changes were observed in minimum (1.33 °C/10 years) and average (0.52 °C/10 years) UTCI values as well as in cold stress frequency (- 4.00 days per 10 years). The changes vary seasonally and regionally. The greatest increase in UTCImin and decrease in cold stress days were noted from November to March and had the highest values in north-east and east Poland, and also in the foothills of the Carpathian Mountains. The trends in maximum UTCI are much smaller and not always positive. The spatially averaged trend in UTCImax for Poland as a whole was 0.35 °C/10 years and the increase in heat stress days was 0.80 days/10 years. The highest increases in UTCImax and heat stress days were noted in eastern and south-eastern Poland.

Evaluation of Tourism-Climate Conditions in the Region of Kłodzko Land (Poland)

Kłodzko Land is one of the most important regions of Poland in terms of tourism and health issues. Numerous tourism attractions and health resorts make the region attractive for both tourist and bathers. The goal of this paper was to evaluate the impact of weather conditions on tourism-related conditions and their changes in the multiannual period. In the analysis, the indices of heat days, the UTCI (Universal Thermal Climate Index) and CTIS (Climate Tourism Information Scheme) tools were used. The research on heat days and the UTCI indicated a significant increase in the heat-stress frequency over the last decades. Simultaneously, the number of weather types related to cold stress has considerably decreased. Such trends were noticed in the entire region, in all the considered hypsometric zones. The rising tendency was also observed for strong and very strong heat stress (UTCI > 32 °C), which negatively affects health problems. The analysis showed that the most extreme thermal and biothermal conditions, in terms of heat stress, occur under southern and eastern anticyclonic circulation. The CTIS analysis showed that favorable weather conditions for most of tourism activities are noticed in the warm half-year. The usefulness of weather conditions for tourism can vary depending on atmospheric circulation.

Effective Range and Driving Factors of the Urban Ventilation Corridor Effect on Urban Thermal Comfort at Unified Scale with Multisource Data

Urban ventilation corridors serve as channels of fresh air flow between the city and suburbs, helping to improve the wind and thermal environments and thermal comfort. However, owing to the limited number of weather stations, it is impossible to quantitatively reveal the effective effect range of urban ventilation corridors on urban thermal comfort at the scale of 100 × 100 m, which is optimal for urban ventilation corridors. In this study, we integrated building data, the European Centre for Medium-Range weather forecast data (ECMWF), MOD13Q1, and other multisource data to analyse the effect of urban ventilation corridors on urban thermal comfort at a unified scale of 100 × 100 m. The results showed that ECMWF and Landsat8 data could be used as substitute factors to improve the universal thermal climate index (UTCI) urban spatial resolution. The effective range of urban ventilation corridor effects on the urban surface temperature and urban comfort was ≤1000 m, with building density and vegetation coverage as the main factors limiting this range. Therefore, attention should be paid to the effective range of urban ventilation corridors, the surrounding building density, vegetation coverage, and the rational use of urban ventilation corridors to reduce the energy consumption of air conditioning in summer.