Investigation and prioritization of risk factors in the collision of two passenger trains based on fuzzy COPRAS and fuzzy DEMATEL methods

Research on safety supervision and management system of China railway based on association rule and DEMATEL

Safety management is a key issue in the railroad industry that needs to be continuously focused on. And it is essential to study causes of accidents for preventing accidents. However, there is a limited academic discussion on the systematic study of organizations and accidents, as well as their safety-related interactions and accidents, as opposed to human-caused disasters. Thus, the model of China's railway safety supervision and management system by sorting out the existing organizations involved in management in China is established in this paper. Firstly, social forces and auxiliary enterprises are specifically added to the model. And then, the relationship between organizations and accidents, as well as the relationship between safety interactions among organizations and accidents are explored by analyzing 224 accident reports, which led to 4 principles for accident prevention. Finally, based on these principles, measures to secure organizational nodes, as well as measures to promote safe interactions among organizations are proposed. The results showed that: (1) China Railway node is not only the most critical node in the safety supervision and management system but also the most vulnerable to the influence of other nodes. (2) The accident occurred due to the simultaneous occurrence of an accident at the China Railway node and the social force node. (3) When there are often safety risks in auxiliary enterprises and social forces simultaneously, the government's management is likely to be defective. The findings in this study can provide helpful references not only for improvement of safety management system structure and supervision and management mechanism but also for the formulation of safety supervision and management policies in China and other countries.

A New Approach to the Viable Ranking of Zero-Carbon Construction Materials with Generalized Fuzzy Information

This paper aims to put forward an integrated decision approach, with generalized fuzzy information for the viable selection of zero- and low-carbon materials for construction. In countries such as India, the construction sector accounts for high pollution levels and high carbon emissions. To restore sustainability and eco-friendliness, the adoption of low-carbon materials for construction is essential and, owing to the multiple attributes associated with the selection, the problem is viewed as a multi-criteria decision-making problem. Earlier studies on material selection have faced certain issues, such as the following: (i) the modeling of uncertainty is an ordeal task; (ii) the flexibility given to experts during preference elicitation is lacking; (iii) the interactions among the criteria are not well captured; and (iv) a consideration of the criteria type is crucial for ranking. To alleviate these issues, the primary objective of this paper was to develop an integrated framework, with decision approaches for material selection in the construction sector that promote sustainability. To this end, generalized fuzzy information (GFI) was adopted as the preference style as it is both flexible and has the ability to model uncertainty from the following three dimensions: membership, non-membership, and hesitancy grades. Furthermore, the CRITIC approach was extended to the GFI context for calculating criteria weights objectively, by effectively capturing criteria interactions. Furthermore, the COPRAS technique was put forward with the GFI rating for ranking zero- and low-carbon construction materials, based on diverse attributes. The usefulness of the framework was demonstrated via a case example from India and the results showed that the design cost, the financial risk, safety, water pollution, and land contamination were the top five criteria, with blended cement, mud bricks, and bamboo as the top three material alternatives for zero- and low-carbon construction. Finally, a sensitivity analysis and a comparison with other methods revealed the theoretical positives of this framework’s robustness and consistency–but it also revealed some limitations of the proposed framework.

Assessment and Prioritize Risk Factors of Financial Measurement of Management Control System for Production Companies Using a Hybrid Z-SWARA and Z-WASPAS with FMEA Method: A Meta-Analysis

The management control system in an industry is managerial, directional, hindrance, and cohesive action in order to cohere and regulate various branches and sub-branches. In fact, it is a system that supports the real state of matters in the right way. This method is intended at assuring that the purposes and activities carried out have the desired outcomes and eventually lead to the objects and purposes of the company. In this matter, the financial and non-financial management control system is essential both when it comes to strategy community; Consequently, in this paper, the management control system is classified into financial and non-financial categories because such analysis gives a chance to get a broad assessment of a management control system relationship in organizations. In this paper, we evaluate the relationship between business strategy and management control system and their influences on financial performance measurement of a manufacturer (a case study of Maral Co.) with the use of Merchant’s theory. Furthermore, In this case, a decision-making strategy centered on the FMEA is used to identify and prioritize risk factors financial of the control system in companies. Nevertheless, because this strategy has some significant limitations, this research has presented a decision-making approach depending on Z-number theory. For tackle, some of the RPN score’s drawbacks, the suggested decision-making methodology combines the Z-SWARA and Z-WASPAS techniques with the FMEA method. The findings reveal that in the non-financial management control system element, customer satisfaction, and in the financial component, cost standards are at the largest level of weight. Furthermore, the strategic planning factor with a rate of 2.95 and the deviation analysis factor with a rate of 2.87 is at the lowest level, respectively. In sum, market or industry changes are the primary cause of risk in businesses, according to FMEA methodology and the opinions of three professionals.

Applying the Delphi and fuzzy DEMATEL methods for identification and prioritization of the variables affecting Iranian citrus exports to Russia

Foreign trade is one of the important components in economic development and a source of foreign exchange earnings. In Iran, the government desires to develop foreign trade with a focus on non-oil exports. One of the substantial non-oil products is agricultural products. Iran is one of the top ten countries in the world in terms of producing agricultural products, especially citrus, but it does not have suitable conditions in terms of exports. Mazandaran province is a considerable source of citrus production in Iran, and the main produced citrus in the province is exported to Russia. Worth bearing in mind that although the production rate of citrus in the province is very well, the amount of export is not very appropriate. Therefore, the government struggles to adopt an appropriate approach to improve the conditions and taking the right approach is not possible without identifying the variables affecting exports. In this regard, in this study, first, the variables affecting citrus exports regarding the case are determined using literature review and the most related those to the case study are selected using the Delphi method. Then, the identified variables are ranked using the fuzzy DEMATEL method. Focusing on the results, it can be observed that “exchange rate fluctuation” and “marketing” have the most and the least impact on the development of citrus exports from the province to Russia, respectively. Moreover, to better analyze the gained results, the determined variables are divided into two main categories based on stages of trade, and each category’s variables are discussed in detail.

Crash Severity Analysis of Highways Based on Multinomial Logistic Regression Model, Decision Tree Techniques, and Artificial Neural Network: A Modeling Comparison

The classification of vehicular crashes based on their severity is crucial since not all of them have the same financial and injury values. In addition, avoiding crashes by identifying their influential factors is possible via accurate prediction modeling. In crash severity analysis, accurate and time-saving prediction models are necessary for classifying crashes based on their severity. Moreover, statistical models are incapable of identifying the potential severity of crashes regarding influencing factors incorporated in models. Unlike previous research efforts, which focused on the limited class of crash severity, including property damage only (PDO), fatality, and injury by applying data mining models, the present study sought to predict crash frequency according to five severity levels of PDO, fatality, severe injury, other visible injuries, and complaint of pain. The multinomial logistic regression (MLR) model and data mining approaches, including artificial neural network-multilayer perceptron (ANN-MLP) and two decision tree techniques, (i.e., Chi-square automatic interaction detector (CHAID) and C5.0) are utilized based on traffic crash records for State Highways in California, USA. The comparison of the findings of the relative importance of ten qualitative and ten quantitative independent variables incorporated in CHAID and C5.0 indicated that the cause of the crash (X1) and the number of vehicles (X5) were known as the most influential variables involved in the crash. However, the cause of the crash (X1) and weather (X2) were identified as the most contributing variables by the ANN-MLP model. In addition, the MLR model showed that the driver’s age (X11) accounts for a larger proportion of traffic crash severity. Therefore, the sensitivity analysis demonstrated that C5.0 had the best performance for predicting road crash severity. Not only did C5.0 take a shorter time (0.05 s) compared to CHAID, MLP, and MLR, it also represented the highest accuracy rate for the training set. The overall prediction accuracy based on the training data was approximately 88.09% compared to 77.21% and 70.21% for CHAID and MLP models. In general, the findings of this study revealed that C5.0 can be a promising tool for predicting road crash severity.