Use of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score to predict 1-year survival of Japanese patients with cirrhosis and to determine who will benefit from living donor liver transplantation

Progress in research of risk prediction models for upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding is a common gastrointes-tinal condition with a high incidence rate and great harm to the body. This paper reviews the rebleeding, endos-copic intervention, and death risk prediction models for upper gastrointestinal bleeding, including the study population, research methods, related risk factors, and model performance, in order to provide reference for clinicians to conduct risk assessment as soon as possible, formulate effective prevention and management plans, and improve patient survival outcomes.

Analysis of Short-Term and Long-Term Outcomes of Living Donor Liver Transplantation for Patients with a High Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score

BACKGROUND

The Model of End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scoring system can predict short-term survival among patients awaiting liver transplantation and is used to allocate organs prioritizing liver transplantation. Patients with high MELD scores have been reported to have worse early graft dysfunction and survival. However, recent studies have shown that patients with high MELD scores had satisfactory graft survival, although they showed more postoperative complications. In this study, we examined the effect of the MELD score on the short-term and long-term prognosis of living donor liver transplantation (LDLT).

METHODS

This study included 102 patients who underwent LDLT in our institution between 2005 and 2020. The patients were divided into 3 groups according to MELD score (low MELD group: ≤20, moderate MELD group: 21-30, and high MELD group: ≥31). Perioperative factors were compared among the 3 groups, and cumulative overall survival rates were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method.

RESULTS

The patients' characteristics were comparable, and the median age was 54 years. Hepatitis C virus cirrhosis was the most common primary disease (n = 40), followed by hepatitis B virus (n = 11). The low MELD group consisted of 68 patients (median score: 16, 10-20); the moderate MELD group, 24 patients (median score: 24, 21-30); and the high MELD group, 10 patients (median score: 35, 31-40). The mean operative time (1241 min versus 1278 min versus 1158 min, P = .19) and mean blood loss (7517 mL vs 11162 mL vs 8808 mL, P = .71) were not significantly different among the 3 groups. The vascular and biliary complication rates were similar. The periods of intensive care unit and hospital stay tended to be longer in the high MELD group, but the difference was insignificant. The 1-year postoperative survival rate (85.3 % vs 87.5 % vs 90.0 %, P = .90) and overall survival rate were also not significantly different among the 3 groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study showed that LDLT patients with high MELD scores do not have a worse prognosis than those with low scores.

Prognosis of systemic inflammation at an early stage of cirrhosis using the monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio during malnutrition risk screening: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether the monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR), as a systemic inflammation index, predicts malnutrition risk during the early stages of cirrhosis.

METHODS

We conducted a single-center prospective cohort study, enrolling patients from June 2016 to September 2020. The patients underwent malnutrition risk assessments upon admission. The patients were classified into five clinical stages according to portal hypertension. The malnutrition risk was scored using the Royal Free Hospital-Nutritional Prioritizing Tool (RFH-NPT) and validated by the Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS-2002) or Liver Disease Undernutrition Screening Tool (LDUST). Routine clinical laboratory measurements were performed to calculate the MLR, Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) class, and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score. The patients were followed up for 2 years.

RESULTS

Among the 154 patients with cirrhosis, 60 had compensated cirrhosis and 94 had decompensated cirrhosis. The optimal cutoff value of the MLR, >0.4, was effective in predicting malnutrition related to death or liver transplantation. Those with a high malnutrition risk defined by the NRS-2002 or RFH-NPT had a higher MLR than those with a low malnutrition risk. For patients with class A CTP cirrhosis or a MELD score of <10, an MLR cutoff of <0.4 significantly distinguished more patients with a low malnutrition risk than those with a high malnutrition risk. Both the RFH-NPT score and MLR increased significantly across the decompensated cirrhosis substages. Interestingly, the MLR exhibited a positive correlation with the RFH-NPT score until varices appeared, but the correlation was the highest at the substage of a history of variceal bleeding (r = 0.714, P = 0.009). Multivariable analysis demonstrated that an MLR of >0.4 was an independent factor for malnutrition risk by screening with the RFH-NPT, and this was confirmed using the LDUST and NRS-2002.

CONCLUSION

Immune-related inflammatory dysfunction predicts malnutrition risk during the early stages of cirrhosis.

Shear-Wave Dispersion Slope from US Shear-Wave Elastography: Detection of Allograft Damage after Liver Transplantation

Background Allograft damage (hepatic parenchymal damage) after liver transplant is associated with the degree of necroinflammation in graft liver. According to a recent animal study, shear-wave dispersion slope obtained at US shear-wave elastography (SWE) is associated with necroinflammatory activity in the liver. Purpose To evaluate the role of shear-wave dispersion slope in detecting allograft damage after liver transplant. Materials and Methods In this prospective study, 104 liver transplant recipients underwent percutaneous liver biopsy for allograft evaluation from December 2017 to November 2018. All participants underwent allograft SWE examination just before liver biopsy, and liver stiffness and shear-wave dispersion slope were obtained. Allograft damage was diagnosed by histopathologic analysis. Clinical and imaging factors related to liver stiffness and shear-wave dispersion slope were determined by multivariable linear regression analysis. Diagnostic performance of each variable in detecting allograft damage was evaluated by comparing area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) values. Results There were 104 study participants (35 women); median age was 56 years (interquartile range, 50-62 years). Allograft damage was found in 46 of 104 (44.2%) of participants. The median liver stiffness (8.2 kPa vs 6.3 kPa; P < .01) and shear-wave dispersion slope (14.4 [m/sec]/kHz vs 10.4 [m/sec]/kHz; P < .01) were higher in participants with allograft damage than in those without damage, respectively. Fibrosis stage was the only determinant factor for liver stiffness (coefficient, 1.8 kPa per fibrosis stage; 95% confidence interval: 0.1, 3.5; P = .03), whereas both fibrosis stage (coefficient, 1.4 [m/sec]/kHz per fibrosis stage; 95% confidence interval: 0.3, 2.6; P = .02) and necroinflammatory activity (coefficient, 1.6 [m/sec]/kHz per necroinflammatory activity grade; 95% confidence interval: 0.5, 2.7; P < .01) affected shear-wave dispersion slope. The AUC for shear-wave dispersion slope in detecting allograft damage was 0.86, which was higher than that of liver stiffness (AUC, 0.75; P < .01). Conclusion Shear-wave dispersion slope determined at US shear-wave elastography may help in detecting allograft damage after liver transplant. © RSNA, 2019 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Contrast-Enhanced Ultrasound Using Perfluorobutane-Containing Microbubbles in the Assessment of Liver Allograft Damage: An Exploratory Prospective Study

This prospective study investigated the usefulness of contrast (perfluorobutane-containing microbubbles)-enhanced ultrasound in the non-invasive assessment of liver allograft damage. Forty-one liver recipients underwent contrast-enhanced ultrasound followed by a liver biopsy. The hepatic filling rate (time between the arrival of contrast agent in the right hepatic artery and the maximum intensity of hepatic parenchyma) and parenchymal intensity difference before and after instantaneous high-power emission in the Kupffer phase were measured. Patients with allograft damage had higher hepatic filling rates and lower parenchymal intensity differences than those without damage (42.0 ± 16.9 vs. 30.5 ± 7.7 s, p = 0.005; 6.1 ± 7.4 vs. 16.6 ± 16.1 dB, p = 0.047, respectively). In the diagnosis of liver allograft damage, hepatic filling rate and parenchymal intensity difference had sensitivities of 61.5% and 90.9% and specificities of 92.6% and 63.6% using cutoffs of >38.5 s and ≤10.3 dB, respectively. In conclusion, contrast-enhanced ultrasound may be a promising tool in the detection of liver allograft damage.

Evidence-based clinical practice guidelines for liver cirrhosis 2015

The Japanese Society of Gastroenterology revised the evidence-based clinical practice guidelines for liver cirrhosis in 2015. Eighty-three clinical questions were selected, and a literature search was performed for the clinical questions with use of the MEDLINE, Cochrane, and Igaku Chuo Zasshi databases for the period between 1983 and June 2012. Manual searching of the latest important literature was added until August 2015. The guidelines were developed with use of the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) system. This digest version in English introduces selected clinical questions and statements related to the management of liver cirrhosis and its complications. Branched-chain amino acids relieve hypoalbuminemia and hepatic encephalopathy and improve quality of life. Nucleoside analogues and peginterferon plus ribavirin combination therapy improve the prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus related liver cirrhosis and hepatitis C related compensated liver cirrhosis, respectively, although the latter therapy may be replaced by direct-acting antivirals. For liver cirrhosis caused by primary biliary cirrhosis and active autoimmune hepatitis, urosodeoxycholic acid and steroid are recommended, respectively. The most adequate modalities for the management of variceal bleeding are the endoscopic injection sclerotherapy for esophageal varices and the balloon-occluded retrograde transvenous obliteration following endoscopic obturation with cyanoacrylate for gastric varices. Beta-blockers are useful for primary prophylaxis of esophageal variceal bleeding. The V2 receptor antagonist tolvaptan is a useful add-on therapy in careful diuretic therapy for ascites. Albumin infusion is useful for the prevention of paracentesis-induced circulatory disturbance and renal failure. In addition to disaccharides, the nonabsorbable antibiotic rifaximin is useful for the management of encephalopathy. Anticoagulation therapy is proposed for patients with acute-onset or progressive portal vein thrombosis.

Impact of preoperative uncontrollable hepatic hydrothorax and massive ascites in adult liver transplantation

PURPOSE

Uncontrollable hepatic hydrothorax and massive ascites (H&MA) requiring preoperative drainage are sometimes encountered in liver transplantation (LT). We retrospectively analyzed the characteristics of such patients and the impact of H&MA on the postoperative course.

METHODS

We evaluated 237 adult patients who underwent LT in our institute between April 2006 and October 2010.

RESULTS

Recipients with uncontrollable H&MA (group HA: n = 36) had more intraoperative bleeding, higher Child-Pugh scores, lower serum albumin concentrations and higher blood urea nitrogen concentrations than those without uncontrollable H&MA (group C: n = 201). They were also more likely to have preoperative hepatorenal syndrome and infections. The incidence of postoperative bacteremia was higher (55.6 vs. 46.7%, P = 0.008) and the 1- and 3-year survival rates were lower (1 year: 58.9 vs. 82.9%; 3 years: 58.9 vs. 77.7%; P = 0.003) in group HA than in group C. The multivariate proportional regression analyses revealed that uncontrollable H&MA and the Child-Pugh score were independent risk factors for the postoperative prognosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Postoperative infection control may be an important means of improving the outcome for patients with uncontrollable H&MA undergoing LT, and clinicians should strive to perform surgery before H&MA becomes uncontrollable.

Dynamic changes of clinical features that predict the prognosis of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

The natural history of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF) is complex and highly variable. However, the global clinical characteristics of this entity remain ill-defined. We aimed to investigate the dynamic patterns of the natural progression as well as their impact on the outcomes of ACHBLF.

METHODS

The clinical features and disease states were retrospectively investigated in 54 patients with ACHBLF at the China South Hepatology Center. The clinical and laboratory profiles including hepatic encephalopathy (HE), hepatorenal syndrome (HRS), and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) were evaluated. The disease state estimated by the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and the dynamic patterns during the clinical course of ACHBLF were extrapolated.

RESULTS

Twenty-two patients died during the 3-month follow-up period (40.74%). The patients were predominantly male (88.89%). Baseline characteristics showed that there were significant differences in only hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA levels and platelet count between the deceased and surviving patients (P=0.014 and P=0.012, respectively). Other baseline characteristics were similar in both groups. The dynamic state of the MELD score gradually increased from an initial hepatic flare until week 4 of ACHBLF progression. There were notable changes of the dynamic state of the MELD score at two time points (week 2 and week 4) during ACHBLF progression. The MELD scores were significantly greater in the death group (24.80 ± 2.99) than in the survival group (19.49±1.96, P<0.05) during the clinical course of ACHBLF; the MELD scores of the survival group began to decrease from week 4, while they continued to rise and eventually decreased as more patients died. The gradients of the ascent and descent stages could predict exactly the severity and prognosis of ACHBLF.

CONCLUSIONS

The natural progression of ACHBLF could be divided approximately into four stages including ascent, plateau, descent, and convalescence stages according to different trends of liver failure progression, respectively. Thus, the special patterns of the natural progression of ACHBLF may be regarded as a significant predictor of the 3-month mortality of ACHBLF.

Model for end-stage liver disease dynamic stratification of survival benefit

Only patients with Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores ≥18 or ≥17 experience a survival benefit (SB) at 12 and 36 months after liver transplantation (OLT). The SB calculation estimates the difference after stratification for risk categories between the survival rate of transplanted versus waiting list patients. The aim of this study was to perform a short- and long-term (60 months) SB analyses of a Italian OLT program. One-hundred seventy-one patients were stratified into four MELD classes (6-14, 15-18, 19-25, 26-40), and two groups: namely, waiting list (WL) and transplanted groups (TX). The median waiting time for transplanted patients was 4.4 months (range, 0-35). SB was expressed as mortality hazard ratio (MHR) as obtained through a Cox regression analysis using as a covariate the status of each patient in the waiting list (WL = 0, reference group) or the TX group (TX = 1). Values over 1 indicated the MHR in favor of the WL with the values below 1 indicating MHR in favor of Tx. In the MELD class 6 to 14, the MHR was above 1 at 3 and 6 months, indicating an SB in favor of WL; subsequently, the MHR dropped below 1, indicating an SB in favor of TX (P < .05). In the MELD class 15 to 18 the MHR was above 1 at 3 months, but below 1 subsequently (P < .05). For MELD classes 19 to 25 and 26 to 40, the MHR was always below 1 (P < .01). According to the SB approach, patients in the MELD class 6 to 14 could safely wait for at least 36 months; patients in the MELD class 15 to 18 should likely remain no longer than 12 months on the waiting list, and all the remaining patients with MELD > 18 should be transplanted as soon as possible. OLT should not be precluded but only postponed for MELD < 19 patients.

Human T-cell leukemia virus type 1 infection worsens prognosis of hepatitis C virus-related living donor liver transplantation

Severe and life-threatening donor-transmitted human T-cell leukemia virus type 1 (HTLV-1) infections after solid organ transplantation have been reported. However, in HTLV-1-infected recipients, graft and patient survival were not fully evaluated. A total of 140 patients underwent living donor liver transplantation (LDLT). Of these, 47 of 126 adult recipients showed indications of hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related liver disease. The HTLV-1 prevalence rate was 10 of 140 recipients (7.14%) and three of 140 donors (0.02%). In HCV-related LDLT, graft and patient survival was worsened by HTLV-1 infection in recipients (seven cases). The 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates in the HCV/HTLV-1-co-infected group were 67%, 32%, and 15%, respectively, and the corresponding rates in the HCV-mono-infected group were 80%, 67%, and 67%, respectively. Only the 5-year survival rates were statistically significant (P=0.04, log-rank method). HTLV-1 infection in recipients is also an important factor in predicting survival in HTLV-1 endemic areas.

A Novel prognostic scoring system to predict 3-month mortality risk in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure in hepatitis B: a retrospective cohort study

PURPOSE

The present study was done to establish an objective, sensitive prognostic scoring system and to determine the applicability of this model in predicting the 3-month mortality of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure in hepatitis B (ACLFB).

METHODS

We developed a novel prognostic scoring system, calculated from six clinical indices including serum total bilirubin, prothrombin activity, serum creatinine, hepatic encephalopathy, infections, and the depth of ascites from 499 patients with ACLFB. Differences in the sensitivity, specificity, and practicality of a Novel prognostic scoring system and the model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) were analyzed.

RESULTS

The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) for the Novel scoring systems and MELD scoring systems were 0.967 (95% CI, 0.956-0.977) and 0.900 (95% CI, 0.878-0.922), respectively. The analysis of the ROC curve indicated that the Novel scoring systems were an exact, pertinent, and objective prognostic model with greater accuracy than the MELD. In the Novel scoring systems, the survival rate of these patients whose scores ranged from 2 to 6 was 98.80%, while for those whose scores point at 7 and 15, the mortality rates were 8.70% (2/23) and 95.45% (21/22), respectively, and the mortality rate of these patients whose scores were 16 and above was 100.00%. However, in the MELD prognostic scoring systems, there were no score ranges with 100.00% survival rate.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed an objective, pertinent, and sensitive prognostic scoring system that predicted the 3-month mortality of patients with ACLFB with greater accuracy than the MELD.

Predictors of patient survival following living donor liver transplantation

BACKGROUND

Living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) is considered to be the alterative choice in light of the great shortage of cadaveric donors. However, the characteristics of the patients who will benefit from LDLT have not been well identified. The aim of this study was to define the pre- and intra-operative factors that may influence patient outcome.

METHODS

The data from 102 LDLT patients who had operations between 2002 and 2009 were collected and analyzed retrospectively. Data were analyzed using uni- and multi-variate analysis according to factors that are known to be associated with outcome in these patients.

RESULTS

Overall, the accurate survival rate of recipients at 1, 3, and 5 years was 84%, 76%, and 70%, respectively. The independent risk factors, preoperative renal dysfunction, intraoperative red blood cell transfusions of greater than 5 units, and female to male match (donor to recipient matching), were identified by Cox regression analysis. The pre-transplant model for end-stage liver disease score and a graft to recipient weight ratio of less than 0.8% were not predictive of outcome. The overall 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival of patients with one or no risk factors and two or more risk factors were 91%, 86%, and 83% and 67%, 56%, and 47%, respectively (P<0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

In our retrospective study, preoperative renal dysfunction, intraoperative red blood cell transfusions of greater than 5 units, and female to male gender match were independent risk factors for LDLT recipient outcome. Two or more of these risk factors may contribute to poor outcome.

The impact of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) on liver transplantation in one center in Brazil

CONTEXT: Presently the MELD score is used as the waiting list criterion for liver transplantation in Brazil. In this method more critical patients are considered priority to transplantation. OBJECTIVE: To compare the results of liver transplantation when the chronologic waiting list was the criterion for organ allocation (pre-MELD era) with MELD score period (MELD era) in one liver transplantation unit in Brazil. METHODS: The charts of the patients subjected to liver transplantation at the Hospital de Clínicas da Universidade Federal do Paraná, Curitiba, PR, Brazil, were reviewed from January of 2001 to August of 2008. Patients were divided into two groups: pre-MELD era and MELD era. They were compared in relation to demographics of donors and receptors, etiology of cirrhosis, cold and warm ischemia time, presence of hepatocellular carcinoma, MELD score and Child-Pugh score and classification at the time of transplantation, units of red blood cells transfused during the transplantation, intensive care unit stay, total hospital stay and 3 month and 1 year survival. RESULTS: Initially, 205 liver transplantations were analyzed. Ninety four were excluded and 111 were included: 71 on the pre-MELD era and 40 on the MELD era. The two groups were comparable in relation to donors and receptors age and sex, etiology of cirrhosis and cold and warm ischemia time. The receptors of the MELD era had more hepatocellular carcinoma than those of the pre-MELD era (37.5% vs 16.9%). Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma had less advanced cirrhosis on both eras. The MELD score was the same on both eras. Excluding the cases of hepatocellular carcinoma, MELD era score was higher than pre-MELD score (18.2 vs 15.8). There were an increased number of transplants on Child-Pugh A and C and a decreased number on Child-Pugh B receptors on MELD era. Both eras had the same need of red blood cells transfusion, intensive care unit stay and hospital stay. Also, 3 month and 1 year survival were the same: 76% and 74.6% on pre-MELD era and 75% and 70.9% on MELD era. CONCLUSION: In our center, after the introduction of MELD score as the priority criterion for liver transplantation there were an increased number of transplants with hepatocellular carcinoma. Excluding these patients, the receptors were operated upon with more advanced cirrhosis. Nevertheless the patients had the same need for red blood cells transfusion, intensive care unit and hospital stay and 3 months and 1 year survival.

Scrub typhus in patients with liver cirrhosis: a preliminary study

Scrub typhus is a potentially fatal infectious disease caused by the organism Orientia tsutsugamushi. However, to date, there have been no clearly identified determinants or reports published on the clinical severity of scrub typhus in liver cirrhosis (LC) patients. This study was carried out by retrospectively reviewing medical records accumulated over 7 years at a tertiary hospital. Sixteen patients of 160 had underlying LC, and they were defined as 'cases'; those without underlying LC were defined as 'controls'. The duration of hospital stay (23.0 +/- 24.8 days for cases and 6.8 +/- 7.0 days for controls, p 0.020) and APACHE II scores (14.1 +/- 6.0 for cases and 7.2 +/- 4.6 for controls, p <0.001) were, respectively, significantly longer and significantly higher on admission in the cases than in the controls. Surprisingly, hospital mortality was significantly higher in the cases than in the controls (31.3% and 3.5%, respectively, p 0.001). Among the LC group, the highest Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score during hospitalization (MELD-Peak) (p 0.024) and the lowest blood sodium concentration during hospitalization (MELD-Na-Lo) (p 0.003) were higher in fatal cases than in the survivors (MELD-Na-to). Physicians should be aware of an adverse relationship between LC and scrub typhus, and patients with LC should be advised to avoid exposure to O. tsutsugamushi, particularly in endemic areas and epidemic seasons.

Values of end-stage liver disease model in assessment of prognosis in patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis

AIM: To compare the prognostic values of for end-stage liver disease (MELD) model and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) for patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis.

METHODS: From a previously collected database, 203 patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis admitted to our hospital were studied and followed up at least for one year. MELD and CTP score and classification were calculated on entry. Receiver operating characteristics curves (ROC) and the area under ROC were used to determine the ability of the scores for predicting three, six and twelve month mortality. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis (K-M) was performed using the cut-offs to establish the predictive power of each score.

RESULTS: There were 23, 39 and 85 dead cases within 3, 6 and 12 mo respectively. There was a significant correlation between the MELD and CTP score in 3, 6 and 12 mo (r = 0.76, 0.69, 0.71, P < 0.01). The areas under the receiver operating characteristics curves of MELD and CTP for the occurrence of death in 3 mo were 0.886 and 0.775. There was a significant difference in the 3 mo between two scores (P < 0.01). The areas under the receiver operating characteristics curves for MELD was 0.892 compared with 0.876 for CTP at 6 mo (P > 0.05); the area was 0.873 and 0.886 respectively at 12 mo (P > 0.05). Both MELD and CTP scores predicted the death rate and survival rate within 3, 6 and 12 mo by survival analysis (P < 0.01).

CONCLUSION: MELD is a strong prognosis predictor for the decompensated liver cirrhosis. MELD was significantly better than CTP score for predicting in-hospital mortality in 3 mo. However, these are not superior to CTP score and CTP classification in 6 and 12 mo.