Prognostic scores for survival as decisional support for surgery in spinal metastases: a performance assessment systematic review

Hematologic Malignancies Influence the Accuracy of Prediction of Survival in Patients With Solid Tumor Spinal Metastases Undergoing Surgery

PURPOSE

There is no consensus on how to identify patients with multiple-level spinal metastases who would benefit from surgery. Previous studies have revealed that patients with hematologic malignancies have a significantly longer median survival time than those with solid tumor spinal metastases. We aimed to compare predictors and survival data between patients with spinal metastases, including hematologic malignancies (all-malignancies group), with only those with nonhematologic malignancies (nonhematologic malignancies group).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This single-center retrospective study included all patients age >18 years who underwent surgery to treat spinal metastases in our department from 2008 to 2018. The patients' baseline characteristics, treatment modalities, and laboratory results were analyzed. Survival was calculated from the date of surgery to the date of confirmed death. Cox regression analysis was used to identify independent predictors of survival.

RESULTS

The study cohort comprised 186 patients with a mean age of 57.1 ± 13.4 years, 101 of whom were male and 18 of whom had hematologic malignancies. The median survival time was 201 days in the all-malignancies group and 168 days in the nonhematologic malignancies group. Independent predictors of survival differed between the two groups. Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group status and response to preoperative chemotherapy were identified as independent factors in both groups. However, radiosensitivity and CNS metastases were identified only in the all-malignancies group, and tumor growth potential, albumin status, and number of vertebrae were identified only in the nonhematologic malignancies group. The receiver operating characteristics were comparable in the two groups: 0.75 in the all-malignancies group and 0.77 in the nonhematologic malignancies group.

CONCLUSION

Longer survival in patients with hematologic malignancies influences the overall prediction of survival. Tumor-specific prognostic factors may improve the prediction of survival in patients with spinal metastases.

Predictive Modeling for Spinal Metastatic Disease

Spinal metastasis is exceedingly common in patients with cancer and its prevalence is expected to increase. Surgical management of symptomatic spinal metastasis is indicated for pain relief, preservation or restoration of neurologic function, and mechanical stability. The overall prognosis is a major driver of treatment decisions; however, clinicians' ability to accurately predict survival is limited. In this narrative review, we first discuss the NOMS decision framework used to guide decision making in the treatment of patients with spinal metastasis. Given that decision making hinges on prognosis, multiple scoring systems have been developed over the last three decades to predict survival in patients with spinal metastasis; these systems have largely been developed using expert opinions or regression modeling. Although these tools have provided significant advances in our ability to predict prognosis, their utility is limited by the relative lack of patient-specific survival probability. Machine learning models have been developed in recent years to close this gap. Employing a greater number of features compared to models developed with conventional statistics, machine learning algorithms have been reported to predict 30-day, 6-week, 90-day, and 1-year mortality in spinal metastatic disease with excellent discrimination. These models are well calibrated and have been externally validated with domestic and international independent cohorts. Despite hypothesized and realized limitations, the role of machine learning methodology in predicting outcomes in spinal metastatic disease is likely to grow.

Prognostic analysis of percutaneous vertebroplasty (PVP) combined with 125I implantation on lumbosacral vertebral osteoblastic metastases

OBJECTIVE

Lumbosacral vertebral osteoblastic metastasis is treated with percutaneous vertebroplasty (PVP) combined with 125I seed implantation and PVP alone. Compared to PVP alone, we evaluated the effects of combination therapy with PVP and 125I seed implantation on pain, physical condition, and survival and evaluated the clinical value of PVP combined with 125I particle implantation.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 62 patients with lumbosacral vertebral osseous metastases treated at our hospital between 2016 and 2019. All the patients met the inclusion criteria for 125I implantation, and they were randomly divided into a combined treatment group and a pure PVP surgery group. The visual analog pain scale (VAS), Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS), and survival time were recorded at different time points, including preoperative, postoperative 1 day, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 12 months, and 36 months in each group. The variation in clinical indicators and differences between the groups were analyzed using SPSS version 20.0. Correlations between different variables were analyzed using the nonparametric Spearman's rank test. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the relationship between survival time and KPS score, VAS score, or primary tumor progression, and survival differences were analyzed using the log-rank test. Multivariate analyses were performed using a stepwise Cox proportional hazards model to identify independent prognostic factors.

RESULTS

Compared to the PVP treatment group, the pain level in the combined treatment group was significantly reduced (P = 0.000), and the patient's physical condition in the combination treatment group significantly improved. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the survival rate of the PVP group was significantly lower than that of the combination group (P = 0.038). We also found that the median survival of patients in both groups significantly increased with an increase in the KPS score (14 months vs. 33 months) (P = 0.020). Patients with more than three transfer sections had significantly lower survival rates than those with one or two segments of the section (P = 0.001). Further, Cox regression analysis showed that age (P = 0.002), the spinal segment for spinal metastasis (P = 0.000), and primary tumor growth rate (P = 0.005) were independent factors that affected the long-term survival of patients with lumbosacral vertebral osseous metastases.

CONCLUSIONS

PVP combined 125I seeds implantation surgery demonstrated superior effectiveness compared to PVP surgery alone in treating lumbosacral vertebral osseous metastases, which had feasibility in the clinical operation. Preoperative KPS score, spine transfer section, and primary tumor growth rate were closely related to the survival of patients with lumbosacral vertebral osteoblastic metastasis. Age, spinal segment for spinal metastasis, and primary tumor growth can serve as prognostic indicators and guide clinical treatment.

Risk Factors for Poor Outcome after Palliative Surgery for Metastatic Spinal Tumors

Palliative surgery is performed to improve the quality of life of patients with spinal metastases. However, it is sometimes difficult to achieve the expected results because the patient's condition, and risk factors related to poor outcomes have not been well elucidated. This study aimed to evaluate the functional outcomes and investigate the risk factors for poor outcomes after palliative surgery for spinal metastasis. We retrospectively reviewed the records of 117 consecutive patients who underwent palliative surgery for spinal metastases. Neurological and ambulatory statuses were evaluated pre- and post-operatively. Poor outcomes were defined as no improvement or deterioration in functional status or early mortality, and the related risk factors were analyzed using multivariate logistic regression analysis. The results showed neurological improvement in 48% and ambulatory improvement in 70% of the patients with preoperative impairment, whereas 18% of the patients showed poor outcomes. In the multivariate analysis, low hemoglobin levels and low revised Tokuhashi scores were identified as risk factors for poor outcomes. The present results suggest that anemia and low revised Tokuhashi scores are related not only to life expectancy but also to functional recovery after surgery. Treatment options should be carefully selected for the patients with these factors.

External validation of the SORG machine learning algorithms for predicting 90-day and 1-year survival of patients with lung cancer-derived spine metastases: a recent bi-center cohort from China

BACKGROUND CONTEXT

The survival prediction of lung cancer-derived spinal metastases is often underestimated by several scores. The SORG machine learning (ML) algorithm is considered a promising tool to predict the risk of 90-day and 1-year mortality in patients with spinal metastases, but not been externally validated for lung cancer.

PURPOSE

This study aimed to externally validate the SORG ML algorithms on lung cancer-derived spinal metastases patients from two large-volume, tertiary medical centers between 2018 and 2021.

STUDY DESIGN/SETTING

Retrospective, cohort study.

PATIENT SAMPLE

Patients aged 18 years or older at two tertiary medical centers in China are treated surgically for spinal metastasis.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Mortality within 90 days of surgery, mortality within 1 year of surgery.

METHODS

The baseline characteristics were compared between the development cohort and our validation cohort. Discrimination (receiver operating curve), calibration (calibration plot, intercept, and slope), the overall performance (Brier score), and decision curve analysis was used to assess the overall performance of the SORG ML algorithms.

RESULTS

This study included 150 patients with lung cancer-derived spinal metastases from two medical centers in China. Ninety-day and 1-year mortality rates were 12.9% (19/147) and 51.3% (60/117), respectively. Lung Cancer with targeted therapies had the lowest Hazard Ratio (HR=0.490), showing an optimal protecting factor. The AUC of the SORG ML algorithm for 90-day mortality prediction in lung cancer-derived spinal metastases is 0.714. While the AUC for 1-year mortality prediction is 0.832 (95CI%, 0.758-0.906). The algorithm for 1-year mortality was well-calibrated with an intercept of 0.13 and a calibration slope of 1.00. However, the 90-day mortality prediction was underestimated with an intercept of 0.60 and a slope of 0.37. The SORG ML algorithms for 1-year mortality showed a greater net benefit than the "treats all or no patients" strategies.

CONCLUSIONS

In the latest cohort of lung cancer-derived spinal metastases in China, the SORG algorithms for predicting 1-year mortality performed well on external validation. However, 90-day mortality was underestimated. The algorithm should be further validated by single primary tumor-derived metastasis treated with the latest comprehensive treatment in diverse populations.

Validation of Traditional Prognosis Scoring Systems and Skeletal Oncology Research Group Nomogram for Predicting Survival of Spinal Metastasis Patients Undergoing Surgery

BACKGROUND

Many scoring systems that predict overall patient survival are based on clinical parameters and primary tumor type. To date, no consensus exists regarding which scoring system has the greatest predictive survival accuracy, especially when applied to specific primary tumors. Additionally, such scores usually fail to include modern treatment modalities, which influence patient survival. This study aimed to evaluate both the overall predictive accuracy of such scoring systems and the predictive accuracy based on the primary tumor.

METHODS

A retrospective review on spinal metastasis patients who were aged more than 18 years and underwent surgical treatment was conducted between October 2008 and August 2018. Patients were scored based on data before the time of surgery. A survival probability was calculated for each patient using the given scoring systems. The predictive ability of each scoring system was assessed using receiver operating characteristic analysis at postoperative time points; area under the curve was then calculated to quantify predictive accuracy.

RESULTS

A total of 186 patients were included in this analysis: 101 (54.3%) were men and the mean age was 57.1 years. Primary tumors were lung in 37 (20%), breast in 26 (14%), prostate in 20 (10.8%), hematologic malignancy in 18 (9.7%), thyroid in 10 (5.4%), gastrointestinal tumor in 25 (13.4%), and others in 40 (21.5%). The primary tumor was unidentified in 10 patients (5.3%). The overall survival was 201 days. For survival prediction, the Skeletal Oncology Research Group (SORG) nomogram showed the highest performance when compared to other prognosis scores in all tumor metastasis but a lower performance to predict survival with lung cancer. The revised Katagiri score demonstrated acceptable performance to predict death for breast cancer metastasis. The Tomita and revised Tokuhashi scores revealed acceptable performance in lung cancer metastasis. The New England Spinal Metastasis Score showed acceptable performance for predicting death in prostate cancer metastasis. SORG nomogram demonstrated acceptable performance for predicting death in hematologic malignancy metastasis at all time points.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study demonstrated inconsistent predictive performance among the prediction models for the specific primary tumor types. The SORG nomogram revealed the highest predictive performance when compared to previous survival prediction models.

The predictive ability of routinely collected laboratory markers for surgically treated spinal metastases: a retrospective single institution study

PURPOSE

We aimed to identify effective routinely collected laboratory biomarkers for predicting postoperative outcomes in surgically treated spinal metastases and attempted to establish an effective prediction model.

METHODS

This study included 268 patients with spinal metastases surgically treated at a single institution. We evaluated patient laboratory biomarkers to determine trends to predict survival. The markers included white blood cell (WBC) count, platelet count, neutrophil count, lymphocyte count, hemoglobin, albumin, alkaline phosphatase, creatinine, total bilirubin, calcium, international normalized ratio (INR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR). A nomogram based on laboratory markers was established to predict postoperative 90-day and 1-year survival. The discrimination and calibration were validated using concordance index (C-index), area under curves (AUC) from receiver operating characteristic curves, and calibration curves. Another 47 patients were used as a validation group to test the accuracy of the nomogram. The prediction accuracy of the nomogram was compared to Tomita, revised Tokuhashi, modified Bauer, and Skeletal Oncology Research Group machine-learning (SORG ML).

RESULTS

WBC, lymphocyte count, albumin, and creatinine were shown to be the independent prognostic factors. The four predictive laboratory markers and primary tumor, were incorporated into the nomogram to predict the 90-day and 1-year survival probability. The nomogram performed good with a C-index of 0.706 (0.702-0.710). For predicting 90-day survival, the AUC in the training group and the validation group was 0.740 (0.660-0.819) and 0.795 (0.568-1.000), respectively. For predicting 1-year survival, the AUC in the training group and the validation group was 0.765 (0.709-0.822) and 0.712 (0.547-0.877), respectively. Our nomogram seems to have better predictive accuracy than Tomita, revised Tokuhashi, and modified Bauer, alongside comparable prediction ability to SORG ML.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study confirmed that routinely collected laboratory markers are closely associated with the prognosis of spinal metastases. A nomogram based on primary tumor, WBC, lymphocyte count, albumin, and creatinine, could accurately predict postoperative survival for patients with spinal metastases.

Prolonged durability of extensive contiguous spinal metastasis stabilization in non-small cell lung cancer patients receiving targeted therapy: two case reports and a literature review

Contiguous spinal metastasis poses a challenge for spine surgeons. In patients with a short remaining life expectancy, surgery may be discouraged. However, in select cases, surgery may be inevitable to eliminate pain and improve the patient’s quality of life. Additionally, with advancements in systemic cancer therapy, the efficacy and duration of tumor control have improved significantly. Consequently, a patient’s life expectancy may be difficult to estimate with existing prognostic scores. Because patients may achieve prolonged survival, spinal metastasis surgery could greatly benefit a patient’s quality of life. In this report, we present the details of two patients with non-small lung cancer with contiguous spinal metastasis who underwent spinal surgery for their metastatic disease. After surgery and targeted therapy with epidermal growth factor tyrosine kinase inhibitors (EGFR TKI), the patients attained substantial healing of their previously lytic spines and achieved prolonged survival of up to 42 months. With modern systemic therapy for lung cancer, the treatment of spinal metastatic disease can achieve decent outcomes, even in poor surgical candidates.

Spinal metastasis: narrative reviews of the current evidence and treatment modalities

The treatment for spinal metastasis has evolved significantly during the past decade. An advancement in systemic therapy has led to a prolonged overall survival in cancer patients, thus increasing the incidence of spinal metastasis. In addition, with the improved treatment armamentarium, the prediction of patient survival using traditional prognostic models may have limitations and these require the incorporation of some novel parameters to improve their prognostic accuracy. The development of minimally-invasive spinal procedures and minimal access surgical techniques have facilitated a quicker patient recovery and return to systemic treatment. These modern interventions help to alleviate pain and improve quality of life, even in candidates with a relatively short life expectancy. Radiotherapy may be considered in non-surgical candidates or as adjuvant therapy for improving local tumour control. Stereotactic radiosurgery has facilitated this even in radioresistant tumours and may even replace surgery in radiosensitive malignancies. This narrative review summarizes the current evidence leading to the paradigm shifts in the modern treatment of spinal metastasis.

The Palliative Care in the Metastatic Spinal Tumors. A Systematic Review on the Radiotherapy and Surgical Perspective

Spine represents the most common site for metastatic disease involvement. Due to the close relationship between the spinal cord and critical structures, therapeutical management of metastatic spinal cord disease remains challenging. Spinal localization can lead to neurological sequelae, which can significantly affect the quality of life in patients with a limited life expectancy. The authors conducted a systematic literature review according to PRISMA guidelines in order to determine the impact of the most updated palliative care on spinal metastases. The initial literature search retrieved 2526 articles, manually screened based on detailed exclusion criteria. Finally, 65 studies met the inclusion criteria and were finally included in the systematic review. In the wide scenario of palliative care, nowadays, recent medical or surgical treatments represent valuable options for ameliorating pain and improving patients QoL in such this condition.

A Natural History of Patients Treated Operatively and Nonoperatively for Spinal Metastases Over 2 Years Following Treatment: Survival and Functional Outcomes

STUDY DESIGN

Prospective observational study.

OBJECTIVE

We present the natural history, including survival and function, among participants in the prospective observational study of spinal metastases treatment investigation.

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA

Surgical treatment has been touted as a means to preserve functional independence, quality of life, and survival. Nearly all prior investigations have been limited by retrospective design and relatively short-periods of post-treatment surveillance.

METHODS

This natural history study was conducted using the records of patients who were enrolled in the prospective observational study of spinal metastases treatment study (2017-2019). Eligible participants were 18 or older and presenting for treatment of spinal metastatic disease. Patients were followed at predetermined intervals (1, 3, 6, 12, and 24-mo) following treatment. We conducted cox proportional hazard regression analysis adjusting for confounders including age, biologic sex, number of comorbidities, type of metastatic lesion, neurologic symptoms at presentation, number of metastases involving the vertebral body, vertebral body collapse, New England Spinal Metastasis Score (NESMS) at presentation, and treatment strategy.

RESULTS

We included 202 patients. Twenty-three percent of the population had died by 3 months following treatment initiation, 51% by 1 year, and 70% at 2 years. There was no significant difference in survival between patients treated operatively and nonoperatively (P = 0.16). No significant difference in HRQL between groups was appreciated beyond 3 months following treatment initiation. NESMS at presentation (scores of 0 [HR 5.61; 95% CI 2.83, 11.13] and 1 [HR 3.00; 95% CI 1.60, 5.63]) was significantly associated with mortality.

CONCLUSION

We found that patients treated operatively and nonoperatively for spinal metastases benefitted from treatment in terms of HRQL. Two-year mortality for the cohort as a whole was 70%. When prognosticating survival, the NESMS appears to be an effective utility, particularly among patients with scores of 0 or 1.Level of Evidence: 2.

Ten Years After SINS: Role of Surgery and Radiotherapy in the Management of Patients With Vertebral Metastases

The objective of the different types of treatments for a spinal metastasis is to provide the best oncological and functional result with the least aggressive side effects. Initially created in 2010 to help clinicians in the management of vertebral metastases, the Spine Instability Neoplastic Score (SINS) has quickly found its place in the decision making and the treatment of patients with metastatic spinal disease. Here we conduct a review of the literature describing the different changes that occurred with the SINS score in the last ten years. After a brief presentation of the spinal metastases’ distribution, with or without spinal cord compression, we present the utility of SINS in the radiological diagnosis and extension of the disease, in addition to its limits, especially for scores ranging between 7 and 12. We take this opportunity to expose the latest advances in surgery and radiotherapy concerning spinal metastases, as well as in palliative care and pain control. We also discuss the reliability of SINS amongst radiologists, radiation oncologists, spine surgeons and spine surgery trainees. Finally, we will present the new SINS-derived predictive scores, biomarkers and artificial intelligence algorithms that allow a multidisciplinary approach for the management of spinal metastases.