Predicting the outcome of normal pressure hydrocephalus therapy-where do we stand?

The Role of Machine Learning and Radiomics for Treatment Response Prediction in Idiopathic Normal Pressure Hydrocephalus

Introduction Ventricular shunting remains the standard of care for patients with idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus (iNPH); however, not all patients benefit from the shunting. Prediction of response in advance can result in improved patient selection for ventricular shunting. This study aims to develop a machine learning predictive model for treatment response after shunt placement using the clinical and radiomics features. Methods In this retrospective pilot study, the medical records of iNPH patients who underwent ventricular shunting were evaluated. In each patient, the "idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus grading scale" (iNPHGS) and a "Modified Rankin Scale" were calculated before and after surgery. The subsequent treatment response was calculated as the difference between the iNPHGS scores before and after surgery. iNPHGS score reduction of two or more than two were considered as treatment response. The presurgical MRI scans were evaluated by radiologists, the ventricular systems were segmented on the T2-weighted images, and the radiomics features were extracted from the segmented ventricular system. Using Orange data mining open-source platform, different machine learning models were then developed based on the presurgical clinical features and the selected radiomics features to predict treatment response after shunt placement. Results After the implementation of the inclusion criteria, 78 patients were included in this study. One hundred twenty radiomics features were extracted, and the 12 best predictive radiomics features were selected. Using only clinical data (iNPHGS and Modified Rankin Scale), the random forest model achieved the best performance in treatment prediction with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.71. Adding the Radiomics analysis to the clinical data improved the prediction performance, with the support vector machine (SVM) achieving the highest rank in treatment prediction with an AUC of 0.8. Adding age and sex to the analysis did not improve the prediction. Conclusion Using machine learning models for treatment response prediction in patients with iNPH is feasible with acceptable accuracy. Adding the Radiomics analysis to the clinical features can further improve the predictive performance. SVM is likely the best model for this task.