Identification of prevalent patients with epilepsy using administrative data: the Tuscany experience

On the Dependence of the Critical Success Index (CSI) on Prevalence

The critical success index (CSI) is an established metric used in meteorology to verify the accuracy of weather forecasts. It is defined as the ratio of hits to the sum of hits, false alarms, and misses. Translationally, CSI has gained popularity as a unitary outcome measure in various clinical situations where large numbers of true negatives may influence the interpretation of other, more traditional, outcome measures, such as specificity (Spec) and negative predictive value (NPV), or when unified interpretation of positive predictive value (PPV) and sensitivity (Sens) is needed. The derivation of CSI from measures including PPV has prompted questions as to whether and how CSI values may vary with disease prevalence (P), just as PPV estimates are dependent on P, and hence whether CSI values are generalizable between studies with differing prevalences. As no detailed study of the relation of CSI to prevalence has been undertaken hitherto, the dataset of a previously published test accuracy study of a cognitive screening instrument was interrogated to address this question. Three different methods were used to examine the change in CSI across a range of prevalences, using both the Bayes formula and equations directly relating CSI to Sens, PPV, P, and the test threshold (Q). These approaches showed that, as expected, CSI does vary with prevalence, but the dependence differs according to the method of calculation that is adopted. Bayesian rescaling of both Sens and PPV generates a concave curve, suggesting that CSI will be maximal at a particular prevalence, which may vary according to the particular dataset.

Increasing epilepsy-related mortality: A multiple causes of death study in Northern Italy

PURPOSE

to assess the burden of epilepsy as the underlying or contributory cause of death, to investigate time trends in mortality with epilepsy, and to examine the main associated comorbidities.

METHODS

All deaths from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2019 with any mention of epilepsy were retrieved from the mortality register of the Veneto Region (Italy). The average annual percent change (AAPC) in age-standardized mortality rates was estimated by log-linear models. The association between mention of epilepsy and of selected disease categories in death certificates was assessed by conditional logistic regression.

RESULTS

Any mention of epilepsy was reported in 5,907 death certificates; of these, epilepsy was selected as the underlying cause in 1,020 decedents. Deaths with epilepsy represented 0.8% of total mortality in 2008-2011, increasing to 1.3% in 2016-2019. The AAPC was 4.7% for males (95% CI 3.0-6.4, p<0.001) and 6.2% for females (95% CI 4.5-7.9, p<0.001). A strong association was found between mention of epilepsy and meningitis/encephalitis, congenital anomalies/cerebral palsy and other paralytic syndromes, central nervous system tumours, cerebrovascular diseases, and dementia/Alzheimer.

CONCLUSIONS

The present analysis from Southern Europe confirms recent reports limited to the UK and the US on increasing epilepsy-related mortality rates. aging of the population and the growing prevalence of neurological disorders are among long-term causes of this unfavorable trend; further studies on mortality data and other health archives are warranted.

Clinical pathways of epileptic seizures and status epilepticus: results from a survey in Italy

Objective

Patients with seizures or status epilepticus (SE) access the hospital through emergency departments and may be admitted into different wards according to the level of care required. Clinicians with different expertise are in charge of taking critical therapeutic decisions. To date, very few studies have investigated the stage at which these patients are referred to neurologists or epileptologists and how guideline recommendations are applied in clinical practice.

Methods

A survey was used to investigate how patients with epileptic seizures or SE are managed in emergency and in subsequent hospital pathways in Italy.

Results

One hundred and seventy-seven physicians (mainly neurologists) from all parts of Italy filled in a questionnaire. Less than half of the participants (35%) answered that, in their hospital, patients with epilepsy were managed by epileptologists. The percentages were lower for patients presenting with acute seizures (21%) or SE (16%). Diagnostic, therapeutic, and assistance pathways (PDTA) for patients presenting with seizure(s) or SE were available for both conditions in about 50% of cases, while, in the rest of the hospitals, participants indicated informal agreements (about 25% of cases) or lack of any agreement (about 25% of cases) between clinicians. Professionals more often involved in PDTA were epileptologists/neurologists, emergency physicians, and intensivists. More than half ot the participants (55%) thought that organizational issues are the most important criticalities for such patients and need to be improved (61%).

Significance

There is a high variability in hospital clinical pathways for epilepsy in Italy.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s10072-020-04270-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Frequency of drug combinations between enzyme-inducing first-generation antiepileptic drugs and inducible drugs in patients with epilepsy

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the study was to systematically assess, through the analysis of administrative data, the frequency of combinations of first-generation enzyme-inducing (EI) antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) with drugs frequently prescribed in patients with epilepsy whose metabolism is induced by EIAEDs.

METHODS

From the population of Tuscany (a region in Italy of about 3,750,000 habitants), patients who had been treated with at least one first-generation EIAEDs (carbamazepine, phenytoin, phenobarbital, and primidone) and had received prescriptions of an inducible non-AED (NON-AED) included in a prespecified list of 103 inducible drugs were identified.

RESULTS

At the index date, 9221 patients with epilepsy were treated with at least one traditional EIAED, and there were 2538 drug combinations between EIAEDs and NON-AEDs, which may result in potentially serious clinical consequences, and 3317 combinations with NON-AEDs that have their metabolism consistently increased.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with epilepsy treated with traditional EIAEDs are at a very high risk of drug interactions.