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Hu M, Shen C, Zheng F, Zhou Y, Teng L, Zheng R, Hu B, Wang C, Lu M, Xu X. Clinical nomogram assisting in discrimination of juvenile dermatomyositis-associated interstitial lung disease. Respir Res 2023; 24:286. [PMID: 37974162 PMCID: PMC10652466 DOI: 10.1186/s12931-023-02599-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2023] [Accepted: 11/08/2023] [Indexed: 11/19/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To establish a prediction model using non-invasive clinical features for early discrimination of DM-ILD in clinical practice. METHOD Clinical data of pediatric patients with JDM were retrospectively analyzed using machine learning techniques. The early discrimination model for JDM-ILD was established within a patient cohort diagnosed with JDM at a children's hospital between June 2015 and October 2022. RESULTS A total of 93 children were included in the study, with the cohort divided into a discovery cohort (n = 58) and a validation cohort (n = 35). Univariate and multivariate analyses identified factors associated with JDM-ILD, including higher ESR (OR, 3.58; 95% CI 1.21-11.19, P = 0.023), higher IL-10 levels (OR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.02-1.41, P = 0.038), positivity for MDA-5 antibodies (OR, 5.47; 95% CI, 1.11-33.43, P = 0.045). A nomogram was developed for risk prediction, demonstrating favorable discrimination in both the discovery cohort (AUC, 0.736; 95% CI, 0.582-0.868) and the validation cohort (AUC, 0.792; 95% CI, 0.585-0.930). Higher nomogram scores were significantly associated with an elevated risk of disease progression in both the discovery cohort (P = 0.045) and the validation cohort (P = 0.017). CONCLUSION The nomogram based on the ESIM predictive model provides valuable guidance for the clinical evaluation and long-term prognosis prediction of JDM-ILD.
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Affiliation(s)
- Minfei Hu
- Department of Rheumatology Immunology & Allergy Medicine, The Children's Hospital, Zhejiang Univesity School of Medicine, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health, Hangzhou, 310003, PR China
| | - Chencong Shen
- Department of Rheumatology Immunology & Allergy Medicine, The Children's Hospital, Zhejiang Univesity School of Medicine, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health, Hangzhou, 310003, PR China
| | - Fei Zheng
- Department of Rheumatology Immunology & Allergy Medicine, The Children's Hospital, Zhejiang Univesity School of Medicine, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health, Hangzhou, 310003, PR China
| | - Yun Zhou
- Department of Rheumatology Immunology & Allergy Medicine, The Children's Hospital, Zhejiang Univesity School of Medicine, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health, Hangzhou, 310003, PR China
| | - Liping Teng
- Department of Rheumatology Immunology & Allergy Medicine, The Children's Hospital, Zhejiang Univesity School of Medicine, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health, Hangzhou, 310003, PR China
| | - Rongjun Zheng
- Department of Rheumatology Immunology & Allergy Medicine, The Children's Hospital, Zhejiang Univesity School of Medicine, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health, Hangzhou, 310003, PR China
| | - Bin Hu
- Department of Rheumatology Immunology & Allergy Medicine, The Children's Hospital, Zhejiang Univesity School of Medicine, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health, Hangzhou, 310003, PR China
| | - Chaoying Wang
- Department of Rheumatology Immunology & Allergy Medicine, The Children's Hospital, Zhejiang Univesity School of Medicine, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health, Hangzhou, 310003, PR China
| | - Meiping Lu
- Department of Rheumatology Immunology & Allergy Medicine, The Children's Hospital, Zhejiang Univesity School of Medicine, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health, Hangzhou, 310003, PR China
| | - Xuefeng Xu
- Department of Rheumatology Immunology & Allergy Medicine, The Children's Hospital, Zhejiang Univesity School of Medicine, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health, Hangzhou, 310003, PR China.
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