Management of unruptured intracranial aneurysms: correlation of UIATS, ELAPSS, and PHASES with referral center practice

Evaluation of PHASES Score for Predicting Rupture of Intracranial Aneurysms: Significance of Aneurysm Size

BACKGROUND

Recent data have identified that certain risk factors for rupture differ between small and larger intracranial aneurysms (IAs). Such differing risk factors make up 5 out of the 6 predictor variables used in the PHASES score, which raises the question on whether IA size has a significant effect on the score's performance.

METHODS

Patients who were diagnosed with an IA incidentally or due to a subarachnoid hemorrhage between 2015 and 2023 were selected for potential inclusion. The median IA size of the cohort was chosen as the cutoff point to categorize small and large (6 mm). The PHASES score was calculated for all patients, and a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to evaluate the classification accuracy of PHASES in predicting rupture for small and large IAs.

RESULTS

A total of 677 IAs were included. Among the IAs, 400 (58.9%) presented as UIAs and 279 (41.0%) as subarachnoid hemorrhage. The average PHASES score was 2.9 and 6.5 for small (n = 322) and large (n = 355) IAs, respectively. The PHASES score performed significantly lower for predicting rupture in smaller IAs (area under the curve: 0.634) compared with the larger (area under the curve: 0.741) (P = 0.00083).

CONCLUSIONS

PHASES was shown to underperform on small IAs. The decision to treat small unruptured IAs remains highly controversial, and the development of a new score to estimate the annual rupture rate while accounting for IA morphology is of great need. Our findings can help encourage future researchers to develop such a score.

Optimal PHASES Scoring for Risk Stratification of Surgically Treated Unruptured Aneurysms

OBJECTIVE

The PHASES (Population, Hypertension, Age, Size, Earlier subarachnoid hemorrhage, Site) score was developed to facilitate risk stratification for management of unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIAs). This study aimed to identify the optimal PHASES score cutoff for predicting neurologic outcomes in patients with surgically treated aneurysms.

METHODS

All patients who underwent microneurosurgical treatment for UIA at a large quaternary center from January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2020, were retrospectively reviewed. Inclusion criteria included a modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score of ≤2 at admission. The primary outcome was 1-year mRS score, with a "poor" neurologic outcome defined as an mRS score >2.

RESULTS

In total, 375 patients were included in the analysis. The mean (SD) PHASES score for the entire study population was 4.47 (2.67). Of 375 patients, 116 (31%) had a PHASES score ≥6, which was found to maximize prediction of poor neurologic outcome. Patients with PHASES scores ≥6 had significantly higher rates of poor neurologic outcome than patients with PHASES scores <6 at discharge (58 [50%] vs. 90 [35%], P = 0.005) and follow-up (20 [17%] vs. 18 [6.9%], P = 0.002). After adjusting for age, Charlson Comorbidity Index score, nonsaccular aneurysm, and aneurysm size, PHASES score ≥6 remained a significant predictor of poor neurologic outcome at follow-up (odds ratio, 2.75; 95% confidence interval, 1.42-5.36, P = 0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

In this retrospective analysis, a PHASES score ≥6 was associated with significantly greater proportions of poor outcome, suggesting that awareness of this threshold in PHASES scoring could be useful in risk stratification and UIA management.

Predictors for Rupture of Small (<7mm) Intracranial Aneurysms: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

INTRODUCTION

Identifying predictors for rupture of small intracranial aneurysms (sIAs) have become a growing topic in the literature given the relative paucity of data on their natural history. The authors performed a meta-analysis to identify reliable predictors.

METHODS

PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science were used to systematically extract references which involved at least 10 IAs <7mm which including a control group experiencing no rupture. All potential predictors reported in the literature were evaluated in the meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Fifteen studies yielding 4,739 sIAs were included in the meta-analysis. Four studies were prospective and 11 were retrospective. Univariate analysis identified 7 predictors which contradicted or are absent in the current scoring systems, while allowing to perform subgroup analysis for further reliability: patient age (MD -1.97, 95%CI -3.47-0.48; P = 0.01), the size ratio (MD 0.40, 95%CI 0.26-0.53; P < 0.00001), the aspect ratio (MD 0.16, 95%CI 0.11-0.22; P < 0.00001), bifurcation point (OR 3.76, 95%CI 2.41-5.85; P < 0.00001), irregularity (OR 2.95, 95%CI 1.91-4.55; P < 0.00001), the pressure loss coefficient (MD -0.32, 95%CI -0.52-0.11; P = 0.002), wall sheer stress (Pa) (MD -0.16, 95%CI -0.28-0.03; P = 0.01). All morphology related predictors listed above have been confirmed as independent predictors via multivariable analysis among the individual studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Morphology related predictors are superior to the classic patient demographic predictors present in most scoring systems. Given that morphology predictors take time to measure, our findings may be of great interest to developers seeking to incorporate artificial intelligence into the treatment decision-making process.

Retrospective Application of Risk Scores to Unruptured Anterior Communicating Artery Aneurysms

BACKGROUND

Treatment decisions for unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIAs) pose a challenge for neurosurgeons, prompting the development of clinical scales assessing hemorrhage risk to provide management guidance. This study compares recommendations from the PHASES and UIA treatment scores (UIATS) applied to anterior communicating artery (AComA) UIAs against real-world management.

METHODS

While UIATS recommends management, for PHASES, an aneurysm with score of 10 or more was considered "high-risk". Analysis involved assessing the concordance in each group alongside comparison to real-word management.

RESULTS

Among 129 patients, 46.5% were observed and 53.5% were treated. PHASES scores were significantly higher in the treatment group (p = 0.00002), and UIATS recommendations correlated with real-world decisions (p < 0.001). We observed no difference in the frequencies of UIATS recommendations between high- and low-risk groups. When comparing the UIATS and PHASES, 33% of high-risk aneurysms received a UIATS conservative management recommendation. In 39% of high-risk aneurysms, the UIATS recommendation was not definitive. Conversely, 27% of low-risk aneurysms obtained a UIATS UIA repair recommendation. Overall, concordance between PHASES and UIATS was 32%.

CONCLUSIONS

Significant discordance in therapeutic suggestions underscores the predominant influence of center experience and individual assessments. Future studies should refine and validate decision-making strategies, potentially exploring alternative applications or developing tailored scales.

Trends in the Age of Patients Treated for Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysms from 1990 to 2020

BACKGROUND

The decision for treatment for unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIAs) is often difficult. Innovation in endovascular devices have improved the benefit-to-risk profile especially for elderly patients; however, the treatment guidelines from the past decade often recommend conservative management. It is unknown how these changes have affected the overall age of the patients selected for treatment. Herein, we aimed to study potential changes in the average age of the patients that are being treated over time.

METHODS

A systematic search of the literature was performed to identify all studies describing the age of the UIAs that were treated by any modality. Scatter diagrams with trend lines were used to plot the age of the patients treated over time and assess the presence of a potential significant trend via statistical correlation tests.

RESULTS

A total of 280 studies including 83,437 UIAs treated between 1987 and 2021 met all eligibility criteria and were entered in the analysis. Mean age of the patients was 55.5 years, and 70.7% were female. There was a significant increasing trend in the age of the treated patients over time (Spearman r: 0.250; P < 0.001), with a 1-year increase in the average age of the treated patients every 5 years since 1987.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study indicates that based on the treated UIA patient data published in the literature, older UIAs are being treated over time. This trend is likely driven by safer treatments while suggesting that re-evaluation of certain UIA treatment decision scores may be of great interest.

SMART Registry: Safety and Performance of the Penumbra SMART COIL System for Patients With Intracranial Aneurysms 4 mm and Smaller

BACKGROUND

The Penumbra SMART COIL System includes a novel generation of embolic coils composed of complex and WAVE shape properties with varying levels of softness.

OBJECTIVE

To assess safety and efficacy of the SMART COIL System through a 1-year follow-up in patients with small intracranial aneurysms.

METHODS

This subset analysis of the SMART Registry, a prospective, multicenter study, includes patients with small intracranial aneurysms (≤4 mm) treated with the SMART COIL System. Registry end points include retreatment rates through 1 year, procedural device-related serious adverse events, and adequate occlusion postprocedure.

RESULTS

Of 905 enrolled patients with aneurysms, 172 (19.0%) had small (≤4 mm) aneurysms (75.6% female; mean age 57.2 ± 13.4 years). 30.8% (53/172) of small aneurysms were ruptured, of which 50.9% (27/53) had Hunt and Hess ≥3. 79.5% (132/166) were wide-necked. Stent-assisted coiling and balloon-assisted coiling were performed in 37.2% (64/172) and 22.1% (38/172) of patients, respectively. The mean packing density for very small aneurysms was 44.9 (SD 25.23). Raymond Class I and Class II were achieved in 89.5% (154/172) postprocedure and 97.2% (137/141) at 1 year. The retreatment rate through 1 year was 5.6% (8/142), and the recanalization rate was 7.1% (10/141). The periprocedural device-related serious adverse event rate was 2.9% (5/172). Intraprocedural aneurysm rupture occurred in 0.8% of patients.

CONCLUSION

This analysis suggests that the SMART COIL System is safe and efficacious in small aneurysms with satisfactory occlusion rates and low rates of rupture or rerupture. At 1 year, patients had low retreatment rates and good clinical outcomes.

Stability of unruptured intracranial aneurysms in the anterior circulation: nomogram models for risk assessment

OBJECTIVE

The probable stability of the lesion is critical in guiding treatment decisions in unruptured intracranial aneurysms (IAs). The authors aimed to develop multidimensional predictive models for the stability of unruptured IAs.

METHODS

Patients with unruptured IAs in the anterior circulation were prospectively enrolled and regularly followed up. Clinical data were collected, IA morphological features were assessed, and adjacent hemodynamic features were quantified with patient-specific computational fluid dynamics modeling. Based on multivariate logistic regression analyses, nomograms incorporating these factors were developed in a primary cohort (patients enrolled between January 2017 and February 2018) to predict aneurysm rupture or growth within 2 years. The predictive accuracies of the nomograms were compared with the population, hypertension, age, size, earlier rupture, and site (PHASES) and earlier subarachnoid hemorrhage, location, age, population, size, and shape (ELAPSS) scores and validated in the validation cohort (patients enrolled between March and October 2018).

RESULTS

Among 231 patients with 272 unruptured IAs in the primary cohort, hypertension, aneurysm location, irregular shape, size ratio, normalized wall shear stress average, and relative resident time were independently related to the 2-year stability of unruptured IAs. The nomogram including clinical, morphological, and hemodynamic features (C+M+H nomogram) had the highest predictive accuracy (c-statistic 0.94), followed by the nomogram including clinical and morphological features (C+M nomogram; c-statistic 0.89), PHASES score (c-statistic 0.68), and ELAPSS score (c-statistic 0.58). Similarly, the C+M+H nomogram had the highest predictive accuracy (c-statistic 0.94) in the validation cohort (85 patients with 97 unruptured IAs).

CONCLUSIONS

Hemodynamics have predictive values for 2-year stability of unruptured IAs treated conservatively. Multidimensional nomograms have significantly higher predictive accuracies than conventional risk prediction scores.

Increased Levels of Serum IL-15 and TNF-β Indicate the Progression of Human Intracranial Aneurysm

Objective

Existing evidence suggests that chronic inflammation promotes the progression of human intracranial aneurysm (IA) and many cytokines have been detected to participate in the process of inflammation. However, rare cytokines in plasma have been used as proxies for progression of IA. This study aimed to identify novel cytokines as biomarkers to predict the development of IA.

Methods

Patients with unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIAs) undergoing microsurgical clipping were prospectively recruited from January 2017 to June 2020 and were separated into two groups based on their ELAPSS score (low risk group < 10, intermediate-high risk group ≥ 10). Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to reduce imbalances in the baseline characteristics between groups. All blood samples were collected before surgery. A human serum 48-cytokines examination was performed to analyze the concentrations of serological cytokines. Clinical data and cytokines were compared between groups.

Results

A total of 184 patients were enrolled in this study. The low risk group contained 77 patients and 107 patients were included in the intermediate-high risk group. Finally, there were 69 patients in each group after PSM with a matching rate of 1:1. The concentrations of 3 serum cytokines were significantly increased in intermediate-high risk patients, namely, interleukin-15 (IL-15), monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1), and tumor necrosis factor-β (TNF-β) (P < 0.05, |log₂ fold change| > 2). The result of receiver operator characteristic (ROC)curve revealed that TNF-β had the highest predictive accuracy, with an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.725 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.639–0.811, P < 0.001] followed by IL-15 (AUC = 0.691, 95% CI 0.602–0.781, P < 0.001) and MCP-1 (AUC = 0.661, 95% CI 0.569–0.753, P = 0.001). Multivariate logistic analysis demonstrated high IL-15 [odds ratio (OR), 3.23; 95% CI, 1.47–7.12; P = 0.004] and high TNF-β (OR, 8.30; 95% CI, 3.25–21.25; P < 0.001) as the risk factors that correlated with intermediate-high risk of IA progression.

Conclusion

UIA patients with intermediate-high growth risk exhibited increased serum levels of IL-15, MCP-1, and TNF-β. Serum IL-15, and TNF-β could serve as biomarkers to predict the progression of UIAs.

Comparison of the unruptured intracranial aneurysm treatment score recommendations with clinical treatment results - A series of 322 aneurysms

Intracranial aneurysms occur with a prevalence of 3-5 %. Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) due to aneurysm rupture is a rare but possibly fatal complication, so that occlusion of unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIA) must be considered. The Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysm Treatment Score (UIATS) offers support for clinical decision making and has been shown to correlate with real life decisions in clinical practice. However, there is no data concerning the correlation of patient outcome and UIATS. Patients presenting to our outpatient clinic between January 1st, 2014 and December 31st, 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. We recorded the Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS-E) for longest possible follow-up, the choice of treatment, complications and UIATS recommendation. We included 221 patients with 322 UIA. 124 (38.5 %) UIA were observed and 198 (61.5 %) were occluded, of which 62 (31.3 %) underwent open surgery and 136 (68.7 %) were treated endovascularly. Spearman's rank correlation between our treatment choice and conclusive UIATS recommendation was 0.362 (p < 0.001). If UIATS was inconclusive, there were significantly more treatment-associated deteriorations (10/66 versus 7/132, p = 0.020). Otherwise, UIATS was not significantly associated with outcome. Therefore, treatment choice for UIA remains an individual decision. However, inconclusive UIATS must trigger vigilance and may be a negative prognostic marker for complications.

The Subarachnoid Hemorrhage-Weather Myth: A Long-Term Big Data and Deep Learning Analysis

Objective: The frequency of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) presents complex fluctuations that have been attributed to weather and climate changes in the past. In the present long-term big data and deep learning analysis, we have addressed this long-held myth.

Methods: Bleeding dates and basic demographic data for all consecutive patients (n = 1,271) admitted to our vascular center for treatment of aSAH between January 2003 and May 2020 (6,334 days) were collected from our continuously maintained database. The meteorological data of the local weather station, including 13 different weather and climate parameters, were retrieved from Germany's National Meteorological Service for the same period. Six different deep learning models were programmed using the Keras framework and were trained for aSAH event prediction with meteorological data from January 2003 to June 2017, with 10% of this dataset applied for data validation and model improvement. The dataset from July 2017 to May 2020 was tested for aSAH event prediction accuracy for all six models using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) as the metric.

Results: The study group comprised of 422 (33.2%) male and 849 (66.8%) female patients with an average age of 55 ± 14 years. None of the models showed an AUROC larger than 60.2. From the presented data, the influence of weather and climate on the occurrence of aSAH events is extremely unlikely.

Conclusion: The myth of special weather conditions influencing the frequency of aSAH is disenchanted by this long-term big data and deep learning analysis.

Application of unruptured aneurysm scoring systems to a cohort of ruptured aneurysms: are we underestimating rupture risk?

The predictive values of current risk stratification scales such as the Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysm Treatment Score (UIATS) and the PHASES score are debatable. We evaluated these scores using a cohort of ruptured intracranial aneurysms to simulate their management recommendations had the exact same patients presented prior to rupture. A prospectively maintained database of ruptured saccular aneurysm patients presenting to our institution was used. The PHASES score was calculated for 992 consecutive patients presenting between January 2002 and December 2018, and the UIATS was calculated for 266 consecutive patients presenting between January 2013 and December 2018. A shorter period was selected for the UIATS cohort given the larger number of variables required for calculation. Clinical outcomes were compared between UIATS-recommended "observation" aneurysms and all other aneurysms. Out of 992 ruptured aneurysms, 54% had a low PHASES score (≤5). Out of the 266 ruptured aneurysms, UIATS recommendations were as follows: 68 (26%) "observation," 97 (36%) "treatment," and 101 (38%) "non-definitive." The UIATS conservative group of patients developed more SAH-related complications (78% vs. 65%, p=0.043), had a higher rate of non-home discharge (74% vs. 46%, p<0.001), and had a greater incidence of poor functional status (modified Rankin scale >2) after 12-18 months (68% vs. 51%, p=0.014). Current predictive scoring systems for unruptured aneurysms may underestimate future rupture risk and lead to more conservative management strategies in some patients. Patients that would have been recommended for conservative therapy were more likely to have a worse outcome after rupture.

External Validation of the PHASES Score in Patients with Multiple Intracranial Aneurysms

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to assess whether the Population, Hypertension, Age, Size, Earlier Subarachnoid Hemorrhage, Site (PHASES) score can do risk stratification of patients with multiple aneurysms (MIAs).

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Patients between January 1, 2016 and January 1, 2019 were recruited retrospectively. The PHASES score was applied to assess the theoretical risk of IA rupture. For patients-level analyses, four modes of the application of the score were used: largest IA PHASES score, highest PHASES score, sum PHASES score, and mean PHASES score.

RESULTS

A total of 701 patients with 1673 IAs were included in this study. At aneurysm-level analysis, the average PHASES score was 3.0 ± 3.0 points, with 2.8 ± 3.0 points and 4.1 ± 2.9 points in the unruptured and ruptured groups, respectively (p < 0.001). At the patient-level analysis, for the largest IA PHASES score, the areas under the curves (AUC) was 0.572. The discrimination performance of the largest IA PHASES score decreases as IA number increases, with AUCs were 0.597, 0.518, and 0.450 in the 2 IAs, 3 IAs and, 4 or more IAs subgroups, respectively. For highest PHASES score, sum PHASES score, and mean PHASES score, the AUCs were 0.577, 0.599, and 0.619, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, PHASES score only serve as a weak tool in decision-making settings for MIAs patients; as such, more accurate models should be developed for MIAs patients and the cumulative effect of MIA may should be considered.