Nomogram predicting long-term survival after the diagnosis of intrahepatic recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma following an initial liver resection

Surgical Strategies for Recurrent Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Resection: A Review of Current Evidence

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common primary liver cancer, and both liver resection and liver transplantation are considered potentially curative options. However, high recurrence rates affect the prognosis depending both on the primary HCC pathology characteristics or on the type and time of the relapse. While great attention has been usually posted on treatment algorithms for the first HCC, treatment algorithms for recurrent HCC (rHCC) are lacking. In these cases, surgery still represents a curative option with both redo hepatectomy and/or salvage liver transplantation, which are considered valid treatments in selected patients. In the current era of personalised medicine with promises of new systemic-targeted immuno-chemotherapies, we wished to perform a narrative review of the literature on the role of surgical strategies for rHCC.

Curative versus palliative treatments for recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma: a multicentric weighted comparison

BACKGROUND

Management of recurrence after surgery for hepatocellular carcinoma (rHCC) is still a debate. The aim was to compare the Survival after Recurrence (SAR) of curative (surgery or thermoablation) versus palliative (TACE or Sorafenib) treatments for patients with rHCC.

METHODS

This is a multicentric Italian study, which collected data between 2007 and 2018 from 16 centers. Selected patients were then divided according to treatment allocation in Curative (CUR) or Palliative (PAL) Group. Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) was used to weight the groups.

RESULTS

1,560 patients were evaluated, of which 421 experienced recurrence and were then eligible: 156 in CUR group and 256 in PAL group. Tumor burden and liver function were weighted by IPW, and two pseudo-population were obtained (CUR = 397.5 and PAL = 415.38). SAR rates at 1, 3 and 5 years were respectively 98.3%, 76.7%, 63.8% for CUR and 91.7%, 64.2% and 48.9% for PAL (p = 0.007). Median DFS was 43 months (95%CI = 32-74) for CUR group, while it was 23 months (95%CI = 18-27) for PAL (p = 0.017). Being treated by palliative approach (HR = 1.75; 95%CI = 1.14-2.67; p = 0.01) and having a median size of the recurrent nodule>5 cm (HR = 1.875; 95%CI = 1.22-2.86; p = 0.004) were the only predictors of mortality after recurrence, while time to recurrence was the only protective factor (HR = 0.616; 95%CI = 0.54-0.69; p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

Curative approaches may guarantee long-term survival in case of recurrence.

Prognosis after intrahepatic recurrence in the patients who underwent curative resection for hepatocellular carcinoma

Backgrounds/Aims

Intrahepatic recurrence is frequent result after hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We analyzed the clinical results of patients who had the intrahepatic recurrences of HCC after curative surgical resections.

Methods

From January 2009 to December 2016, 320 patients underwent curative surgical resection for HCC in department of Surgery, Korea Cancer Center Hospital. After surgical resection, 155 patients had suffered HCC recurrence during follow-up period. Among them, 122 patients had only intrahepatic recurrence initially, who were included in this retrospective study. We analyzed about the period of the recurrence after surgery, treatment methods for the recurred tumors, and poor prognostic factors for survival after intrahepatic recurrences.

Results

Among the 122 patients, 83 patients had recurrence within 24 months after surgery. Thirty-eight patients underwent curative treatment for the recurred tumors (re-resection in 18, radiofrequency ablation in 20 patients). Non-curative treatments were performed in 77 patients (TACE in 68 patients, radiotherapy in 9 patients) and conservative management in 7 patients. Five-year survival rate of patients who underwent curative treatment is 86.4% (p≤0.001). Five-year survival rate of non-curative treatment is 55.7% (p≤0.001), conservative management is 0% (p=0.021). Among the clinical factors, non-curative treatment for recurred tumor, AFP level at the time of recurrence, size of recurred tumor were independent poor prognostic factors for survival after intrahepatic recurrences (p<0.001).

Conclusions

For the patients who had intrahepatic recurrent HCC after surgery, aggressive local treatment can improve the prognosis in selective cases. Further study is necessary to validate this retrospective investigation.

Prognostic Nomograms for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Curative Hepatectomy, with a Focus on Recurrence Timing and Post-Recurrence Management

Background

Prognoses of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after curative hepatectomy remain unsatisfactory because of the high incidence of postoperative recurrence. Published predictive systems focus on pre-resection oncological characteristics, ignoring post-recurrence factors.

Purpose

This study aimed to develop prognostic nomograms for 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) of patients with HCC after curative hepatectomy, focusing on potentially influential post-recurrence factors.

Patients and Methods

Clinicopathological and postoperative follow-up data were extracted from 494 patients with HCC who underwent curative hepatectomy between January 2012 and June 2019. Early recurrence (ER) and late recurrence (LR) were defined as recurrence at ≤2 and >2 years, respectively, after curative hepatectomy. Nomograms for the prediction of 3- and 5-year OS were established based on multivariate analysis. The areas under time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) for the nomograms were calculated independently to verify predictive accuracy. The nomograms were internally validated based on 2000 bootstrap resampling of 75% of the original data.

Results

In total, 494 patients with HCC who underwent curative hepatectomy met the eligibility criteria. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis identified factors potentially influencing 3- and 5-year OS. Multivariate analysis indicated that patient age, Hong Kong Liver Cancer stage, γ-glutamyl transferase (γ-GGT) level, METAVIR inflammation activity grade, ER and post-recurrence treatment modality were influencing factors for 3-year OS (AUC, 0.891; 95% CI, 0.8364-0.9447). γ-GGT > 60 U/L, hepatectomy extent, LR and post-recurrence treatment modality were influencing factors for 5-year OS (AUC, 0.864; 95% CI, 0.8041-0.9237). Calibration plots showed satisfactory concordance between the predicted and actual observation cohorts.

Conclusion

We propose new prognostic nomograms for OS prediction with a focus on the differentiation of recurrence timing and post-recurrence management. These nomograms overcome the shortcomings of previous predictive nomograms and significantly improve predictive accuracy.

A Five-Gene Signature for Recurrence Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

Background

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most aggressive malignancies with poor prognosis. There are many selectable treatments with good prognosis in Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer- (BCLC-) 0, A, and B HCC patients, but the most crucial factor affecting survival is the high recurrence rate after treatments. Therefore, it is of great significance to predict the recurrence of BCLC-0, BCLC-A, and BCLC-B HCC patients.

Aim

To develop a gene signature to enhance the prediction of recurrence among HCC patients.

Materials and Methods

The RNA expression data and clinical data of HCC patients were obtained from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database. Univariate Cox regression analysis and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis were conducted to screen primarily prognostic biomarkers in GSE14520. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was introduced to verify the prognostic role of these genes. Ultimately, 5 genes were demonstrated to be related with the recurrence of HCC patients and a gene signature was established. GSE76427 was adopted to further verify the accuracy of gene signature. Subsequently, a nomogram based on gene signature was performed to predict recurrence. Gene functional enrichment analysis was conducted to investigate the potential biological processes and pathways.

Results

We identified a five-gene signature which performs a powerful predictive ability in HCC patients. In the training set of GSE14520, area under the curve (AUC) for the five-gene predictive signature of 1, 2, and 3 years were 0.813, 0.786, and 0.766. Then, the relative operating characteristic (ROC) curves of five-gene predictive signature were verified in the GSE14520 validation set, the whole GSE14520, and GSE76427, showed good performance. A nomogram comprising the five-gene signature was built so as to show a good accuracy for predicting recurrence-free survival of HCC patients.

Conclusion

The novel five-gene signature showed potential feasibility of recurrence prediction for early-stage HCC.

A Novel Diagnostic Nomogram for Noninvasive Evaluating Liver Fibrosis in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Infection

Objective

To establish a novel nomogram for diagnosing liver fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and verify the diagnostic performance of the established nomogram.

Methods

Patients with chronic HBV infection who met the inclusion and exclusion criteria were enrolled in this retrospective study; 70% and 30% of patients were randomly assigned to training dataset and validation dataset, respectively. The risk factors for liver fibrosis were screened using the univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Based on the results, a nomogram was established and verified.

Results

508 patients with chronic HBV infection were included in this study (n = 355 for training dataset and n = 153 for validation dataset). The logistic regression analysis showed that liver stiffness measurement (LSM), platelet (PLT) count, and prothrombin time (PT) were independent risk factors for liver fibrosis (P < 0.01), which were used to establish the nomogram. The consistency index (C-index) of the nomogram established for diagnosing liver fibrosis was 0.875. The calibration line and the ideal line were consistent, which indicated that diagnosis of liver fibrosis by the established model was accurate. The values of area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve (AUROC) for diagnosing liver fibrosis by the nomogram were 0.857 and 0.862 in the training dataset and validation dataset, respectively, which were noticeably higher than those in the well-known serological models, including the aspartate aminotransferase- (AST-) to-platelet ratio index (APRI) scoring model, fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) scoring model, APAG model (including age, PT, albumin, and γ-glutamyl transferase), and S-index model (all P < 0.05).

Conclusion

LSM, PT, and PLT were found as independent risk factors for liver fibrosis. The established nomogram exhibited an excellent diagnostic performance, and it can more visually and individually evaluate the probability of liver fibrosis in patients with chronic HBV infection.

NEAT1 is Required for the Expression of the Liver Cancer Stem Cell Marker CD44

CD44, a cancer stem cell (CSC) marker, is required for maintaining CSC properties in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Nuclear enriched abundant transcript 1 (NEAT1), a long noncoding RNA (lncRNA), is an oncogenic driver in HCC. In the present study, we investigated the significance of the NEAT1 gene in association with CD44 expression in liver CSCs of human HCC cell lines. The CSC properties were evaluated by spheroid culture, CSC marker expression, and sensitivity to anti-cancer drugs. The expression of both NEAT1 variant 1 (NEAT1v1) and variant 2 (NEAT1v2) as well as CD44 was significantly increased in the spheroid culture, compared with that in monolayer culture. Overexpression of Neat1v1, but not Neat1v2, enhanced the CSC properties, while knockout of the NEAT1 gene suppressed them. CD44 expression was increased by the overexpression of Neat1v1 and abrogated by NEAT1 knockout. The overexpression of NEAT1v1 restored the CSC properties and CD44 expression in NEAT1-knockout cells. NEAT1v1 expression in HCC tissues was correlated with poor prognosis and CD44 expression. These results suggest that NEAT1v1 is required for CD44 expression. To our surprise, NEAT1v1 also restored the CSC properties even in CD44-deficient cells, suggesting that NEAT1v1 maintains the properties of CSCs in a CD44-independent manner.

CD44 standard isoform is involved in maintenance of cancer stem cells of a hepatocellular carcinoma cell line

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the leading causes of cancer death worldwide. Cancer stem cells (CSCs) have attracted attention as a novel therapeutic target for cancer because they play important roles in the development and aggravation of cancer. CD44 is expressed as a standard isoform (CD44s) and several variant isoforms. CD44v is a major isoform expressed on CSCs of a variety of tumors and has been extensively studied. However, HCC tissues dominantly express CD44s, whose function in CSCs remains unclear. In the present study, we investigated the roles of CD44s in CSCs of HCC. Knock‐out of the CD44 gene in HuH7 HCC cells on which only CD44s is expressed resulted in decreased spheroid formation and increased drug sensitivity. The expression of CSC marker genes, including CD133 and EpCAM, was significantly downregulated in the spheroids of CD44‐deficient cells compared with those in the spheroids of HuH7 cells. In addition, CD44 deficiency impaired antioxidant capacity, concomitant with downregulation of glutathione peroxidase 1 (GPX1) and thioredoxin. Because GPX1 uses the reduced form of glutathione (GSH) to regenerate oxidized cellular components, GSH levels were significantly increased in the CD44‐deficient cells. We also found that NOTCH3 and its target genes were downregulated in the spheroids of CD44‐deficient cells. NOTCH3 expression in HCC tissues was significantly increased compared with that in adjacent nontumor liver tissues and was correlated with CD44 expression. These results suggest that CD44s is involved in maintenance of CSCs in a HCC cell line, possibly through the NOTCH3 signaling pathway.

Conditional survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: results from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry

BACKGROUND

Compared with overall survival, conditional survival is a more relevant measure of prognosis in surviving patients over time. The aim of this study was to describe the conditional survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma according to different prognostic variables through an analysis of a national population-based cancer registry.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 3,082 hepatocellular carcinoma patients who were diagnosed between 2004 and 2014.

RESULTS

The conditional overall and cause-specific survival improved from 37.6% to 68.9% and 45% to 79.1%, respectively, in the entire study population. The conditional overall and cause-specific survival improved from 32.6% to 69.3% and 40.1% to 74.8%, respectively, in patients aged 65 to 74 years. The conditional overall and cause-specific survival improved from 8.4% to 44.1% and 12.1% to 66.1%, respectively, in the stage IVB group. The conditional overall and cause-specific survival improved from 32.8% to 71.4% and 40.3% to 78.4%, respectively, in the positive/elevated AFP group.

CONCLUSIONS

Conditional survival exhibited an improved prognosis over time. For hepatocellular carcinoma patients who survived for a specific period of time after diagnosis, more dramatic improvements occurred in patients aged 65-74 years, patients with AJCC stage IVB, and patients with a positive/elevated AFP value.

Nomogram to Predict Survival of Patients With Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Surgery

BACKGROUND & AIMS

We aimed to establish and validate a nomogram to predict survival at 2 and 5 years after recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients who have undergone curative resection.

METHODS

We developed a nomogram using data from a training cohort of 638 patients (most with hepatitis B virus infection) with recurrence of HCC after curative resection at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, in Guangzhou, China from 2007 through 2013. The median follow-up time was 39.7 months. Patients were evaluated every 3-4 months for the first 2 years after resection and every 3-6 months thereafter. The nomogram was based on variables independently associated with survival after HCC recurrence, including antiviral treatment; albumin-bilirubin grade and alpha-fetoprotein level at recurrence; time from primary resection to recurrence; size, site, number of recurrences; and treatment for recurrence. We validated the nomogram using data from an independent internal cohort of 213 patients treated at the same institution and an external cohort of 127 patients treated at 2 other centers in China, from 2002 through 2009. The predictive accuracy of the nomogram was measured using Harrell's concordance index (C index) and compared with the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging system of recurrence.

RESULTS

Our nomogram predicted survival of patients in the training cohort with a C-index of 0.797 (95% CI, 0.765-0.830)-greater than that of the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging system for recurrence (C-index score, 0.713; 95% CI, 0.680-0.745) (P < .001). This nomogram accurately stratified patients into subgroups with predicted long, medium, and short survival times: the proportions of patients in each group who survived 2 years after HCC recurrence were 91.2%, 67.6%, and 23.8%; the proportions of patients in each group who survived 5 years after HCC recurrence were 74.9%, 53.3%, and 9.1%. Our nomogram predicted patient survival times with C-index scores of 0.756 (95% CI, 0.703-0.808) in the internal validation cohort and 0.747 (95% CI, 0.701-0.794) in the external validation cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a nomogram to determine the probability of survival, at different time points, of patients with recurrence of HCC (most with hepatitis B virus infection), after curative resection and validated it internally and externally.