Predicting short-term life expectancy of patients with end-stage gastric cancer using Onodera's prognostic nutritional index

Comprehensive evaluation of serum hepatic proteins in predicting prognosis among cancer patients with cachexia: an observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

Hepatic proteins, including albumin, prealbumin, and transferrin have been confirmed to be prognostic predictors in various cancers. This study aimed to comprehensively assess the prognostic value of these three serum markers in patients with cancer cachexia.

METHODS

This multicenter prospective cohort study included 1303 cancer cachexia patients, among whom 592 deaths occurred during a median follow-up of 20.23 months. The definition of cachexia was based on the 2011 international consensus. Concordance index (C-index) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were applied to compare the prognostic performance. The primary outcome was overall survival, which was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method generated by log-rank test. A Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to identify independent predictors associated with survival. The secondary outcomes included 90-days mortality and quality of life (QoL).

RESULTS

C-index and ROC curves showed that albumin had the most accurate predictive capacity for survival, followed by transferrin and prealbumin. Multivariate Cox analysis confirmed that low albumin (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.51, 95% confidence interval [95%CI] = 1.28-1.80, P < 0.001), prealbumin (HR = 1.42, 95%CI = 1.19-1.69, P < 0.001), and transferrin (HR = 1.50, 95%CI = 1.25-1.80, P < 0.001) were independent risk factors for long-term survival in cancer patients with cachexia. In subgroup analysis, the prognostic value of low albumin was significant in patients with upper gastrointestinal, hepatobiliary and pancreatic, and colorectal cancers; low prealbumin was significant in colorectal cancer; and low transferrin was significant in patients with upper gastrointestinal and colorectal cancer. All three hepatic proteins were valuable as prognostic predictors for patients with advanced (Stage III and IV) cancer with cachexia. The risks of 90-days mortality and impaired QoL were higher in cachexia patients with low albumin, prealbumin, and transferrin levels.

CONCLUSION

Low albumin, prealbumin, and transferrin levels were all independent prognostic factors affecting patients with cancer cachexia, especially in patients in the advanced stages. These results highlight the value of routinely checking serum hepatic proteins in clinical practice to predict the prognosis of patients with cancer cachexia.

Utility of palliative prognostic index and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio in predicting prognosis of end-stage squamous cell carcinoma of head and neck

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study was to examine the factors influencing the prognosis of end-stage head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) and to develop a more useful prognostic index.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This retrospective observational study included 79 patients with end-stage HNSCC. Patients were grouped by patient factors and prognostic indicators, and overall survival from the start of Best Supportive Care was compared for each group. In addition, overall survival was compared between patients with palliative prognostic index (PPI) ≥6 and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) ≥10 and patients with PPI <6 or NLR <10.

RESULTS

PPI ≥6 and NLR ≥10 were associated with significantly more frequent poor prognoses (p = 0.01 and p = 0.002, respectively). The median survival was 32 days in cases with PPI ≥6 and NLR ≥10, and 64 days for PPI <6 or NLR <10 (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The combination of PPI and NLR is a useful indicator for predicting the prognosis of patients with end-stage HNSCC.

Early prediction of response to palliative chemotherapy in patients with stage-IV gastric and esophageal cancer

BACKGROUND

The goal of therapy for many patients with advanced stage malignancies, including those with metastatic gastric and esophageal cancers, is to extend overall survival while also maintaining quality of life. After weighing the risks and benefits of treatment with palliative chemotherapy (PC) with non-curative intent, many patients decide to pursue treatment. It is known that a subset of patients who are treated with PC experience significant side effects without clinically significant survival benefits from PC.

METHODS

We use data from 150 patients with stage-IV gastric and esophageal cancers to train machine learning models that predict whether a patient with stage-IV gastric or esophageal cancers would benefit from PC, in terms of increased survival duration, at very early stages of the treatment.

RESULTS

Our findings show that machine learning can predict with high accuracy whether a patient will benefit from PC at the time of diagnosis. More accurate predictions can be obtained after only two cycles of PC (i.e., about 4 weeks after diagnosis). The results from this study are promising with regard to potential improvements in quality of life for patients near the end of life and a potential overall survival benefit by optimizing systemic therapy earlier in the treatment course of patients.

Albumin/fibrinogen ratio, an independent risk factor for postoperative delirium after total joint arthroplasty

AIM

Postoperative delirium (POD) is a very common and serious complication after total joint arthroplasty (TJA), which is closely associated with many adverse consequences and a poor prognosis. This study aimed to establish the potential risk factors for POD.

METHODS

In total, 336 patients who underwent elective TJA under general anesthesia between 2018 and 2021 were included and deemed eligible for inclusion. POD was diagnosed based on the criteria by the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 5th edition (DSM V). The receiver operating characteristic curve was drawn to evaluate the predictive and cut-off values of continuous variables for POD. Potential risk factors for POD were evaluated by binary univariate and multivariate analysis with the "Enter" method.

RESULTS

According to the criteria by DSM V, 43 patients were categorized into the POD group, with an incidence of 12.8% (43 of 336). The receiver operating characteristic curve showed that albumin/fibrinogen ratio (AFR) was a good predictor for POD with an area under the curve of 0.754, cut-off value of 9.65, sensitivity of 57.00% and specificity of 83.72% (P <0.001). A low preoperative AFR level (<9.65) was determined as the only independent risk factor for POD by the univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses (OR: 2.45, 95% CI: 2.01-2.94, P = 0.008).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that a low AFR is an independent risk factor for POD in elderly subjects after TJA. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2022; 22: 412-417.

Preoperative Prognostic Nutritional Index Predict Survival in Patients With Resectable Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Prognostic nutritional index (PNI) is one of the most important factors related to prognosis in many types of cancer. This study aimed to evaluate the PNI on predicting the overall survival (OS) in resectable esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).

METHODS

A total of 165 patients with resectable ESCC were included in our retrospective study. PNI values before surgery were calculated for each patient [PNI = 10 × albumin (gr/dL) + 0.005 × total lymphocyte count (mm³)]. PNI cutoff value was selected by drawing receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve, which used OS time as the endpoint. The Kaplan-Meier method and the Cox regression model of multivariate analysis were used to analyze the prognostic relationship between PNI and OS.

RESULTS

Among the 165 patients, 34 (20.6%) were women and 131 (79.4%) were men. The mean age was 62.67 ± 7.95 years, with the age range from 44 to 85 years. The average PNI was 46.68 ± 8.66. ROC curve showed that the best cutoff value was 43.85. All patients were divided into two groups: 72 patients (43.6%) were in the low PNI group (<43.85), while 93 patients (56.4%) were in the high PNI group (≥ 43.85). Univariate analysis demonstrated that PNI, tumor length, and T-stage and pathological stage were related to the prognosis of patients with ESCC (P <0.05). The Kaplan-Meier curve showed that the high PNI group has significantly increased OS compared to low PNI group (p = 0.01). Three-year OS rates were 57.5% in the low PNI group while 77.7% in the high PNI group. Univariate analysis showed that advanced pathological stage, large tumor length, and low PNI (separately, p < 0.05) were significant risk factors for shorter OS. Multivariate analysis showed that tumor length (P = 0.008) and PNI (P = 0.017) were independent prognostic factors in patients with resectable ESCC.

CONCLUSION

PNI is a simple and useful predictive marker for the OS time in patients with radical esophagectomy.