Modified albumin-bilirubin grade to predict eligibility for second-line therapies at progression on sorafenib therapy in hepatocellular carcinoma patients

Baseline Albumin-Bilirubin grade as a predictor of response and outcome of regorafenib therapy in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The use of regorafenib in the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is widespread. Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) has been shown to be a potential prognostic marker for regorafenib treatment, but its prognostic value remains controversial. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis to investigate the value of the baseline ALBI grade in predicting the efficacy and survival outcomes of HCC patients after regorafenib treatment.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, Cochrane library, Web of Science, CNKI, Wan Fang Data, and Vip Database were searched from January 2010 to October 2022. Studies treating HCC patients with regorafenib and with ALBI as a categorical variable, overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) as outcome indicators were included. After applying Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) to evaluate the quality of the included studies, Review Manager 5.4 was used to statistically analyze. Chi-square Q test and I2 statistics were used to detect heterogeneity. Funnel plot asymmetry, Egger's and Begg's test were used to evaluate publication bias.

RESULTS

A total of 12 studies, comprising 1,918 patients, were included in the meta-analysis. The included studies were all evaluated as high quality. Compared to the high-grade baseline ALBI group, patients in the low-grade group had a longer survival time after receiving regorafenib and also more suitable for regorafenib treatment [odds ratio (OR) = 6.50, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.22-18.96, P < 0.01]. The low-grade baseline ALBI group before sorafenib treatment was significantly correlated with better OS [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.36, 95% CI: 1.68-3.31, P < 0.00001] and PFS (HR = 1.56, 95% CI: 1.16-2.08, P = 0.003). Likewise, the low-grade baseline ALBI group before regorafenib was also significantly correlated with better OS (HR = 1.56, 95% CI: 1.15-2.13, P = 0.005) and PFS (HR = 2.06, 95% CI: 1.37-3.11, P = 0.0005). In addition, the ALBI grade was significantly correlated with disease control rate (DCR) (OR = 2.90, 95% CI: 1.45-5.79, P = 0.003), but not the objective response rate (OR = 1.98, 95% CI: 0.71-5.46, P = 0.19).

CONCLUSIONS

The baseline ALBI grade could be a valuable prognostic indicator for predicting response and outcomes in HCC patients treated with regorafenib.

Development and validation of a gene expression-based nomogram to predict the prognosis of patients with cholangiocarcinoma

AIM

To establish and validate a prognostic nomogram of cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) using independent clinicopathological and genetic mutation factors.

METHODS

213 patients with CCA (training cohort n = 151, validation cohort n = 62) diagnosed from 2012 to 2018 were included from multi-centers. Deep sequencing targeting 450 cancer genes was performed. Independent prognostic factors were selected by univariate and multivariate Cox analyses. The clinicopathological factors combined with (A)/without (B) the gene risk were used to establish nomograms for predicting overall survival (OS). The discriminative ability and calibration of the nomograms were assessed using C-index values, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), decision curve analysis (DCA), and calibration plots.

RESULTS

The clinical baseline information and gene mutations in the training and validation cohorts were similar. SMAD4, BRCA2, KRAS, NF1, and TERT were found to be related with CCA prognosis. Patients were divided into low-, median-, and high-risk groups according to the gene mutation, the OS of which was 42.7 ± 2.7 ms (95% CI 37.5-48.0), 27.5 ± 2.1 ms (95% CI 23.3-31.7), and 19.8 ± 4.0 ms (95% CI 11.8-27.8) (p < 0.001), respectively. The systemic chemotherapy improved the OS in high and median risk groups, but not in the low-risk group. The C-indexes of the nomogram A and B were 0.779 (95% CI 0.693-0.865) and 0.725 (95% CI 0.619-0.831), p < 0.01, respectively. The IDI was 0.079. The DCA showed a good performance and the prognostic accuracy was validated in the external cohort.

CONCLUSION

Gene risk has the potential to guide treatment decision for patients at different risks. The nomogram combined with gene risk showed a better accuracy in predicting OS of CCA than not.

Dual hepatitis B and C-associated hepatocellular carcinoma: clinical characteristics, outcome, and prognostic role of albumin-bilirubin grade

BACKGROUND

Albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade is used to evaluate the outcome of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) which is often associated with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. This study aimed to investigate the clinical characteristics, outcome, and prognostic role of ALBI grade in dual HBV/HCV-related HCC.

METHODS

A total 3341 HCC patients with viral etiology were prospectively enrolled and retrospectively analyzed. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify independent prognostic predictors.

RESULTS

Of all patients, 2083 (62%), 1068 (32%), and 190 (6%) patients had HBV, HCV, and dual HBV/HCV infection, respectively. The mean age of HBV, HCV, and dual virus group was 60, 68, and 64 years (p < 0.001), respectively. There was no significant survival difference between HBV, HCV, and dual HBV/HCV-related HCC group (p = 0.712). Multivariate Cox analysis in dual HBV/HCV-related HCC showed that multiple tumors [hazard ratio (HR): 1.537, p = 0.044], tumor size >3 cm (HR 2.014, p = 0.044), total tumor volume (TTV) >50 cm³ (HR 3.050, p < 0.001), vascular invasion (HR 3.258, p < 0.001), performance status 2-4 (HR 2.232, p < 0.001), ALBI grade 2-3 (HR 2.177, p < 0.001), and BCLC stage B-D (HR 2.479, p < 0.001) were independent predictors of poor survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Dual viral infection does not accelerate the development of HCC in HBV carriers. Patient survival is similar between dual HBV/HCV-related HCC and single HBV- or HCV-related HCC group. The ALBI grade is a robust prognostic model in dual virus-related HCC to discriminate patient long-term survival.

Sequential therapy including regorafenib for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma: Effect of early relative changes in hepatic functional reserve after regorafenib administration on prognosis

AIM

Regorafenib is a second-line treatment for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma after sorafenib-refractory treatment. This study examined the effects of regorafenib administration on hepatic functional reserve and the treatment course after regorafenib discontinuation.

METHODS

This retrospective, multicenter study involved 51 patients treated with regorafenib after sorafenib-refractory treatment for u-HCC at seven institutions before March 2021.

RESULTS

Fourteen, 13, and 24 patients were classified based on modified albumin-bilirubin (mALBI) grade 1, 2a, and 2b, respectively. The median survival time and progression-free survival were 16.7 and 3.3 months, respectively. Only mALBI grade 2b or 3 was significantly associated with survival rate (hazard ratio, 2.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-4.49; p = 0.047). A comparison of median ALBI scores at the initiation of regorafenib (-2.35) with those at 4 weeks (-1.93) revealed a significant relative change (p = 0.0001). After 4 weeks, grade 1 or 2a persisted in 15 patients (Group 1); grade 1 or 2a deteriorated to 2b in 12 patients (Group 2); grade 2b or 3 before regorafenib administration was present in 22 patients (Group 3); and MST was 33.3, 12.8, and 11.3 months in the three groups, respectively (p = 0.05). Patients treated with lenvatinib (LEN) (n = 27, MST = 23.4 months) after regorafenib had a significantly longer survival time from regorafenib initiation than those not treated with LEN (n = 24, 11.8 months; p = 0.043).

CONCLUSIONS

Hepatic functional reserve significantly declined after regorafenib administration. During regorafenib treatment, favorable hepatic functional reserve before administration and maintenance of favorable hepatic reserve after administration lead to prolonged prognosis.

On-Treatment Albumin-Bilirubin Grade: Predictor of Response and Outcome of Sorafenib-Regorafenib Sequential Therapy in Patients with Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Simple Summary

Regorafenib after sorafenib therapy improved survival in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma in the RESORCE study. The aim of our retrospective study was to investigate the predictors of response and outcome of regorafenib therapy in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma in whom sorafenib therapy had failed. We demonstrated that albumin-bilirubin grade at the initiation of regorafenib therapy is an independent predictor of disease control, progression-free survival, and overall survival. Patients with albumin-bilirubin grade 2 and an alpha-fetoprotein level of ≥20 ng/mL had the worst progression-free survival (after regorafenib therapy) and overall survival (after regorafenib and sorafenib therapy). Thus, a combination of albumin-bilirubin grade and alpha-fetoprotein level can be used to stratify patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma by progression-free survival and overall survival probability for sorafenib–regorafenib sequential therapy.

Abstract

In the RESORCE study, regorafenib after sorafenib therapy improved survival in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In total, 88 patients with unresectable HCC who received sorafenib–regorafenib sequential therapy were enrolled. The objective response rate and disease control rate were 19.3% and 48.9%, respectively, for regorafenib therapy (median duration: 8.1 months). Median progression-free survival (PFS) after regorafenib therapy was 4.2 months (95% CI: 3.2–5.1). The median overall survival (OS; from initiation of either sorafenib or regorafenib) was not reached in this cohort. According to multivariate Cox regression analyses, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade at the initiation of regorafenib therapy is an independent predictor of disease control, PFS, and OS. Moreover, the combination of ALBI grade 2 and an alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level of ≥20 ng/mL was an independent predictor of PFS (hazard ratio (HR): 3.088, 95% CI: 1.704–5.595; p < 0.001) for regorafenib therapy, and OS for both regorafenib (HR: 3.783, 95% CI: 1.316–10.88; p = 0.014) and sorafenib–regorafenib sequential (HR: 4.603, 95% CI: 1.386–15.29; p = 0.013) therapy. A combination of ALBI grade and AFP level can be used to stratify patients with unresectable HCC by PFS and OS probability for sorafenib–regorafenib sequential therapy.