Identification of risk factors for venous thromboembolism and validation of the Khorana score in patients with advanced lung cancer: based on the multicenter, prospective Rising-VTE/NEJ037 study data

External validation of the Khorana score for the prediction of venous thromboembolism in cancer patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Venous thromboembolism is the leading cause of death in cancer patients, second only to tumor progression. The Khorana score is recommended by clinical guidelines for identifying ambulatory cancer patients at high risk of venous thromboembolism during chemotherapy. However, its predictive performance is debated among cancer patients.

OBJECTIVES

To map the applicability of the Khorana score in cancer patients and to assess its predictive performance across various cancer types, providing guidance for clinicians and nurses to use it more appropriately.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

METHODS

A comprehensive literature search of the electronic database was first conducted on August 30, 2023, and updated on May 20, 2024. Studies examining the Khorana score's predictive performance (including but not limited to the areas under the curve, C-index, and calibration plot) in cancer patients were included. The Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) was applied to evaluate the methodological quality of the included studies. Data synthesis was achieved via random-effects meta-analysis using the R studio software. The subgroup analysis was performed according to the study design, clinical setting, cancer type, anti-cancer treatment stage, and country.

RESULTS

The review incorporated 67 studies, including 58 observational studies and nine randomized controlled trials. All included studies assessed the Khorana score's discrimination, with the C-index ranging from 0.40 to 0.84. The pooled C-index for randomized controlled trials was 0.61 (95 % CI 0.51-0.70), while observational studies showed a pooled C-index of 0.59 (95 % CI 0.57-0.60). Subgroup analyses revealed the pooled C-index for lung cancer, lymphoma, gastrointestinal cancer, and mixed cancer patients as 0.60 (95 % CI 0.53-0.67), 0.56 (95 % CI 0.51-0.61), 0.59 (95 % CI 0.39-0.76), and 0.60 (95 % CI 0.58-0.61), respectively. Inpatient and outpatient settings had the pooled C-index of 0.60 (95 % CI 0.58-0.63) and 0.58 (95 % CI 0.55-0.61), respectively. Calibration was assessed in only four studies. All included studies were identified to have a high risk of bias according to PROBAST.

CONCLUSION

The Khorana score has been widely validated in various types of cancer patients; however, it exhibited poor capability (pooled C-index<0.7) in accurately discriminating VTE risk among most types of cancer patients either in inpatient or outpatient settings. The Khorana score should be used with caution, and high-quality studies are needed to further validate its predictive performance.

REGISTRATION

The protocol for this study is registered with PROSPERO (registration number: CRD42023470320).

Validation of risk assessment scores in predicting venous thromboembolism in patients with lung cancer receiving immune checkpoint inhibitors

INTRODUCTION

Several risk scores have been proposed to predict venous thromboembolism (VTE) in hospitalized patients. However, their predictive performances in lung cancer patients receiving immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) is unclear. We aimed to validate and compare their performances of the Caprini, Padua and Khorana risk scores in lung cancer patients receiving ICIs.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with lung cancer treated with ICIs at West China Hospital between January 2018 and March 2022. The primary outcome was VTE during 12 months of follow-up from the first day of treatment with ICIs. The predictive performances of risk scores was determined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

RESULTS

Among the 1115 eligible patients with lung cancer who received ICIs, 105 patients (9.4%) experienced VTE during the 12-month follow-up period. There was a statistically significant difference in the cumulative incidence of VTE between the different risk levels as determined by Caprini and Padua scores (all P < 0.001). However, no significant difference was observed for the Khorana score (P = 0.488). The Caprini and Padua scores demonstrated good discriminative performances (AUC 0.743, 95% CI 0.688-0.799 for Caprini score; AUC 0.745, 95% CI 0.687-0.803 for Padua score), which were significantly better than that of the Khorana score (AUC 0.553, 95% CI, 0.493-0.613) (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

In our study, the Caprini and Padua risk scores had better discriminative ability than the Khorana score to identify lung cancer patients treated with ICIs who were at high risk of VTE.

Venous and Arterial Thromboembolism in Lung Cancer Patients: A Retrospective Analysis

Background: Patients with lung cancer face an increased incidence of venous (VTE) and arterial (ATE) thromboembolism. Risk factors for thrombosis remain unclear, particularly the impact of the use of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). We sought to compare the incidence of VTE and ATE in lung cancer patients receiving platinum-based therapy versus those receiving ICIs alone or in combination with chemotherapy and to validate the Khorana risk score for predicting VTE in the era of ICIs. Methods: A retrospective single-institution data analysis of 173 patients diagnosed with locally advanced or metastatic lung cancer at the Jena University hospital between 2015 and 2021. Results: The study revealed a high incidence of VTE (17.9%) and ATE (5.8%). The VTE risk was higher in patients diagnosed with adenocarcinoma (OR 0.29, 95% CI 0.09-0.93) than in patients with other histological types. A prior venous event was associated with an increased risk of recurrent VTE (OR 4.46, 95% CI 1.20-16.63). The incidence of thrombosis under first-line platinum-based chemotherapy did not differ from the incidence under ICIs (p = 0.19). There were no differences in the subgroup of patients who received ICIs alone or combined immunochemotherapy (p = 0.43). The Khorana score failed to predict the risk of VTE correctly. Conclusions: We did not find evidence supporting the theory that ICI therapy (alone or combined) increases the risk of thrombotic events. Adenocarcinoma and a prior history of VTE were strongly associated with an increased risk of VTE. Other scores for thrombotic risk assessment in lung cancer patients should be tested in prospective studies.

The value of performance status in predicting venous thromboembolism in lung cancer patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors

INTRODUCTION

The incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) is notably high in lung cancer patients, particularly among those treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). Previous studies have focused on the relationship between Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) Performance Status (PS) and VTE risk in immune checkpoint inhibitor therapy, but available evidence is inconsistent.

METHODS

The clinical data of lung cancer patients treated with ICIs were collected and analyzed from West China Hospital between January 2018 and March 2022. ECOG PS score was measured on admission. The primary outcome was the incidence of VTE, encompassing both deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to calculate the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI).

RESULTS

A total of 1115 lung cancer patients receiving ICIs were eligible for this study, VTE developed in 105 (9.4%) during the 12-month follow-up, of which 95 (8.5%) had DVT,14 (1.3%) had definite PE. Poor ECOG PS (PS ≥ 2) was associated with an increased risk for VTE (OR = 5.405, 95% CI = 3.067-9.525, P < 0.001), DVT (OR = 4.669, 95% CI = 2.588-8.427, P < 0.001) and PE (OR = 8.413, 95% CI = 2.565-27.600, P < 0.001) after multivariable adjustment in the study cohort.

CONCLUSION

VTE occurred in 9.4% of lung cancer patients treated with ICIs, and poor performance status was associated with an increased risk of VTE.

Models for predicting venous thromboembolism in ambulatory patients with lung cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis

AIMS

The incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in patients with lung cancer is relatively high, and risk stratification models are vital for the targeted application of thromboprophylaxis. We aimed to review VTE risk prediction models that have been developed in patients with lung cancer and evaluated their performance.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Twenty-four eligible studies involving 123,493 patients were included. The pooled incidence of VTE within 12 months was 11 % (95 % CI 8 %-14 %). With the identified four VTE risk assessment tools, meta-analyses did not show a significant discriminatory capability of stratifying VTE risk for Khorana, PROTECHT and CONKO scores. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of the Khorana score were 24 % (95 % CI 11 %-44 %) and 84 % (95 % CI 73 %-91 %) at the 3-point cut-off, and 43 % (95 % CI 35 %-52 %) and 61 % (95 % CI 52 %-69 %) at the 2-point cut-off. However, a COMPASS-CAT score of ≥ 7 points indicated a significantly high VTE risk, with a RR of 4.68 (95 % CI 1.05-20.80).

CONCLUSIONS

The Khorana score lacked discriminatory capability in identifying patients with lung cancer at high VTE risk, regardless of the cut-off value. The COMPASS-CAT score had better performance, but further validation is needed. The results indicate the need for robust VTE risk assessment tools specifically designed and validated for lung cancer patients. Future research should include relevant biomarkers as important predictors and consider the combined use of risk tools. PROSPERO registration number: CRD42021245907.

Lung Cancer Related Thrombosis (LCART): Focus on Immune Checkpoint Blockade

Cancer-associated thrombosis (CAT) is a common complication in lung cancer patients. Lung cancer confers an increased risk of thrombosis compared to other solid malignancies across all stages of the disease. Newer treatment agents, including checkpoint immunotherapy and targeted agents, may further increase the risk of CAT. Different risk-assessment models, such as the Khorana Risk Score, and newer approaches that incorporate genetic risk factors have been used in lung cancer patients to evaluate the risk of thrombosis. The management of CAT is based on the results of large prospective trials, which show similar benefits to low-molecular-weight heparins (LMWHs) and direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) in ambulatory patients. The anticoagulation agent and duration of therapy should be personalized according to lung cancer stage and histology, the presence of driver mutations and use of antineoplastic therapy, including recent curative lung surgery, chemotherapy or immunotherapy. Treatment options should be evaluated in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has been shown to impact the thrombotic risk in cancer patients. This review focuses on the epidemiology, pathophysiology, risk factors, novel predictive scores and management of CAT in patients with active lung cancer, with a focus on immune checkpoint inhibitors.

A Predictive Model for Cancer-Associated Thrombosis in Japanese Cancer Patients: Findings from the J-Khorana Registry

Background  Although the close relationship between cancer and venous thromboembolism (VTE) has been identified, risk stratification for VTE in Japanese patients with cancer remains unclear. Objectives  This study aimed to validate the Khorana VTE risk assessment score (KRS) for VTE diagnosis and establish an optimal predictive model for VTE in Japanese patients with cancer. Methods  A total of 7,955 Japanese patients with cancer were subdivided into low- (0), intermediate- (1-2), and high-score (3) groups according to the KRS. Using 37 explanatory variables, a total of 2,833 patients with cancer were divided into derivation and validation cohorts (5:5). A risk model for Japanese participants was developed using the derivation cohort data. Results  The prevalence of VTE in low-, intermediate-, and high-score patients was 1.2, 2.5, and 4.3%, respectively. Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that cancer stage (III-IV) and KRS ≥ 2 were independent and significant predictors of VTE onset. The risk model for VTE assigned 1 point to body mass index ≥25 kg/m 2 and 2 points each to the prevalence of osteochondral cancer and D-dimer level ≥1.47 µg/mL. The areas under the curve of the risk model were 0.763 and 0.656 in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Conclusion  The KRS was useful in Japanese patients, and our new predictive model may be helpful for the diagnosis of VTE in Japanese patients with cancer.

Prediction of Venous Thromboembolism in Patients With Cancer Using Machine Learning Approaches: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PURPOSE

Recent studies have suggested that machine learning (ML) could be used to predict venous thromboembolism (VTE) in cancer patients with high accuracy.

METHODS

We aimed to evaluate the performance of ML in predicting VTE events in patients with cancer. PubMed, Web of Science, and EMBASE to identify studies were searched.

RESULTS

Seven studies involving 12,249 patients with cancer were included. The combined results of the different ML models demonstrated good accuracy in the prediction of VTE. In the training set, the global pooled sensitivity was 0.87, the global pooled specificity was 0.87, and the AUC was 0.91, and in the test set 0.65, 0.84, and 0.80, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The prediction ML models showed good performance to predict VTE. External validation to determine the result's reproducibility is necessary.

Evaluating the effect of immune checkpoint inhibitors on venous thromboembolism in non-small cell lung cancer patients

OBJECTIVE

Currently, immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) therapy is one of the main methods of treatment in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). This study aimed to explore the risk factors of VTE and evaluate the effect of ICIs on VTE in patients with NSCLC.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We retrospectively studied patients with NSCLC who were divided into VTE group and without VTE (Non-VTE) group. We identified the risk factors of VTE in NSCLC patients and evaluated the effect of ICIs on VTE in NSCLC patients.

RESULTS

We found that clinical stage III-IV (P = 0.015) and Khorana score (KS) ≥ 2 (P = 0.047) were independent risk factors for the occurrence of VTE in NSCLC, and treatment with ICIs reduced the risk of VTE occurrence (P = 0.028). There were no differences of survival rates in the 12-month (P = 0.449), 24-month (P = 0.412), or 36-month (P = 0.315) between the VTE and non-VTE groups. History of anti-angiogenic therapy (P = 0.033) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (P = 0.046) were independent risk factors for VTE in NSCLC patients who were treated with ICIs.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that we should strengthen anticoagulant therapy when using ICIs for NSCLC patients with a history of anti-angiogenic therapy and COPD.