Impact of non-invasive cardiovascular screening programs as a predictor of cardiovascular events among asymptomatic chronic kidney disease patients

Prognostic models for chronic kidney disease: a systematic review and external validation

BACKGROUND

Accurate risk prediction is needed in order to provide personalized healthcare for chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. An overload of prognosis studies is being published, ranging from individual biomarker studies to full prediction studies. We aim to systematically appraise published prognosis studies investigating multiple biomarkers and their role in risk predictions. Our primary objective was to investigate if the prognostic models that are reported in the literature were of sufficient quality and to externally validate them.

METHODS

We undertook a systematic review and appraised the quality of studies reporting multivariable prognosis models for end-stage renal disease (ESRD), cardiovascular (CV) events and mortality in CKD patients. We subsequently externally validated these models in a randomized trial that included patients from a broad CKD population.

RESULTS

We identified 91 papers describing 36 multivariable models for prognosis of ESRD, 50 for CV events, 46 for mortality and 17 for a composite outcome. Most studies were deemed of moderate quality. Moreover, they often adopted different definitions for the primary outcome and rarely reported full model equations (21% of the included studies). External validation was performed in the Multifactorial Approach and Superior Treatment Efficacy in Renal Patients with the Aid of Nurse Practitioners trial (n = 788, with 160 events for ESRD, 79 for CV and 102 for mortality). The 24 models that reported full model equations showed a great variability in their performance, although calibration remained fairly adequate for most models, except when predicting mortality (calibration slope >1.5).

CONCLUSIONS

This review shows that there is an abundance of multivariable prognosis models for the CKD population. Most studies were considered of moderate quality, and they were reported and analysed in such a manner that their results cannot directly be used in follow-up research or in clinical practice.

Brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity, cardio-ankle vascular index, and prognosis

Background

Brachial–ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) and cardio-ankle vascular index (CAVI) are indices of arterial stiffness, and several studies have used these indices. However, there is no comprehensive review of these parameters in the prognostic significance.

Methods

The aim of this study was to review the articles exploring the prognostic significance of these parameters. Articles demonstrating independent significance after multivariate analysis on the Cox proportional hazards model were defined as “successful.” The success rate was compared using Fisher’s exact test. In addition, multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to explore the independent determinants of the success of prognostic prediction.

Results

The success rate of the baPWV articles (65.7% [46/70]) tended to be higher than that of the CAVI articles (40.0% [6/15]; P=0.083). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that log (number of patients) (OR 11.20, 95% CI 2.45–51.70, P=0.002) and dialysis population (OR 0.28, 95% CI 0.08–0.94, P=0.039) were positive and negative independent determinants of the success of prognostic prediction, respectively. In addition, after redefining two studies as the absence of arteriosclerosis obliterans (ASO) exclusion, baPWV (OR 3.36, 95% CI 0.86–13.20, P=0.083) and the existence of exclusion criteria of ASO (OR 3.08, 95% CI 0.96–9.93, P=0.060) exhibited statistical tendency in the multivariate analysis.

Conclusion

This study demonstrated that the number of study participants and dialysis population were the independent determinants of the success of prognostic prediction. This study also showed the importance of exclusion criteria of ASO when using these indices. In addition, a prospective large-scale study to confirm the superiority in the prognostic prediction of these indices is warranted.

Consensus clinical recommendations for the management of plasma lipid disorders in the Middle East

BACKGROUND

Plasma lipid disorders are key risk factors for the development of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and are prevalent in the Middle East, with rates increasing in recent decades. Despite this, no region-specific guidelines for managing plasma lipids exist and there is a lack of use of guidelines developed in other regions.

METHODS

A multidisciplinary panel of regional experts was convened to develop consensus clinical recommendations for the management of plasma lipids in the Middle East. The panel considered existing international guidelines and regional clinical experience to develop recommendations.

RESULTS

The panel's recommendations include plasma lipid screening, ASCVD risk calculation and treatment considerations. The panel recommend that plasma lipid levels should be measured in all at-risk patients and at regular intervals in all adults from the age of 20years. A scoring system should be used to calculate ASCVD risk that includes known lipid and non-lipid risk factors. Primary treatment targets include low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Lifestyle modifications should be first-line treatment for all patients; the first-line pharmacological treatment targeting plasma lipids in patients at moderate-to-high risk of ASCVD is statin therapy, with a number of adjunctive or second-line agents available. Guidance is also provided on the management of underlying conditions and special populations; of particular pertinence in the region are familial hypercholesterolaemia, diabetes and metabolic dyslipidaemia.

CONCLUSIONS

These consensus clinical recommendations provide practicing clinicians with comprehensive, region-specific guidance to improve the detection and management of plasma lipid disorders in patients in the Middle East.