Predictors of poor prognosis in ANCA-associated vasculitis (AAV): a single-center prospective study of inpatients in China

Development of a novel predictive model for interstitial lung disease in ANCA-associated vasculitis prognostications within the Chinese population

Antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody vasculitis-associated interstitial lung disease (AAV-ILD) is a potentially life-threatening disease. However, very little research has been done on the condition's mortality risk. Hence, our objective is to find out the factors influencing the prognosis of AAV-ILD and employ these findings to create a nomogram model. Patients with AAV-ILD who received treatment at the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University during the period from March 1, 2011, to April 1, 2022 were selected for this research. The development of nomogram entailed a synergistic integration of univariate, Lasso, and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Internal validation ensued through bootstrap techniques involving 1000 re-sampling iterations. Discrimination and calibration were assessed utilizing Harrell's C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration curve. Model performance was evaluated through integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), net reclassification improvement (NRI), and likelihood ratio test. The net benefit of the model was evaluated using decision curve analysis (DCA). A cohort comprising 192 patients was enrolled for analysis. Throughout observation period, 32.29% of the population died. Key factors such as cardiac involvement, albumin, smoking history, and age displayed substantial prognostic relevance in AAV-ILD. These factors were incorporated to craft a predictive nomogram. Impressively, the model exhibited robust performance, boasting a Harrell's C index of 0.826 and an AUC of 0.940 (95% CI 0.904-0.976). The calibration curves depicted a high degree of harmony between predicted outcomes and actual observations. Significantly enhancing discriminative ability compared to the ILD-GAP model, the nomogram was validated through the IDI, NRI, and likelihood ratio test. DCA underscored the superior predictive value of the predictive model over the ILD-GAP model. The internal validation further affirmed this efficacy, with a mean Harrell's C-index of 0.815 for the predictive model. The nomogram model can be employed to predict the prognosis of patients with AAV-ILD. Moreover, the model performance is satisfactory. In the future, external datasets could be utilized for external validation.

Investigation of Clinical Features and Association between Vascular Endothelial Injury Markers and Cytomegalovirus Infection Associated with Thrombotic Microangiopathy in Patients with Anti-Neutrophil Cytoplasmic Antibody (ANCA)-Associated Vasculitis: Case-Based Research

Anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis (AAV) can occasionally trigger thrombotic microangiopathy (TMA). Cytomegalovirus (CMV) may be reactivated during intensive immunosuppressive therapy for AAV and cause TMA. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the clinical features of and the association between vascular endothelial injury markers and TMA due to CMV in patients with AAV. A 61-year-old female was diagnosed with AAV and severe kidney injury. Immunosuppressive therapy gradually improved her symptoms and laboratory findings. However, 2 weeks after induction therapy initiation, she exhibited altered consciousness, a significant decrease in platelet count, and hemolytic anemia, resulting in a TMA diagnosis. Plasma exchange did not improve TMA findings and routine screening test revealed CMV infection. Ganciclovir injection improved the infection and TMA findings. Consequently, we diagnosed her with CMV-induced TMA. Both AAV and CMV may induce severe vascular endothelial injury, potentially leading to TMA development. CMV-induced TMA should be considered when TMA develops during induction therapy against AAV. Moreover, of the three serum markers of vascular injury-serum sulfatides, soluble thrombomodulin, and pentraxin 3-serum sulfatides may be associated with the development of TMA, and a high level of soluble thrombomodulin may be associated with the development of CMV viremia during the clinical course of AAV.