Modélisation du risque d’évolution métastatique chez les patients supposés avoir une maladie localisée

Towards quantitative imaging biomarkers of tumor dissemination: A multi-scale parametric modeling of multiple myeloma

The advent of medical imaging and automatic image analysis is bringing the full quantitative assessment of lesions and tumor burden at every clinical examination within reach. This opens avenues for the development and testing of functional disease models, as well as their use in the clinical practice for personalized medicine. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian statistical framework, based on mixed-effects models, to quantitatively test and learn functional disease models at different scales, on population longitudinal data. We also derive an effective mathematical model for the crossover between initially detected lesions and tumor dissemination, based on the Iwata-Kawasaki-Shigesada model. We finally propose to leverage this descriptive disease progression model into model-aware biomarkers for personalized risk-assessment, taking all available examinations and relevant covariates into account. As a use case, we study Multiple Myeloma, a disseminated plasma cell cancer, in which proper diagnostics is essential, to differentiate frequent precursor state without end-organ damage from the rapidly developing disease requiring therapy. After learning the best biological models for local lesion growth and global tumor burden evolution on clinical data, and computing corresponding population priors, we use individual model parameters as biomarkers, and can study them systematically for correlation with external covariates, such as sex or location of the lesion. On our cohort of 63 patients with smoldering Multiple Myeloma, we show that they perform substantially better than other radiological criteria, to predict progression into symptomatic Multiple Myeloma. Our study paves the way for modeling disease progression patterns for Multiple Myeloma, but also for other metastatic and disseminated tumor growth processes, and for analyzing large longitudinal image data sets acquired in oncological imaging. It shows the unprecedented potential of model-based biomarkers for better and more personalized treatment decisions and deserves being validated on larger cohorts to establish its role in clinical decision making.

Quantitative mathematical modeling of clinical brain metastasis dynamics in non-small cell lung cancer

Brain metastases (BMs) are associated with poor prognosis in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), but are only visible when large enough. Therapeutic decisions such as whole brain radiation therapy would benefit from patient-specific predictions of radiologically undetectable BMs. Here, we propose a mathematical modeling approach and use it to analyze clinical data of BM from NSCLC. Primary tumor growth was best described by a gompertzian model for the pre-diagnosis history, followed by a tumor growth inhibition model during treatment. Growth parameters were estimated only from the size at diagnosis and histology, but predicted plausible individual estimates of the tumor age (2.1-5.3 years). Multiple metastatic models were further assessed from fitting either literature data of BM probability (n = 183 patients) or longitudinal measurements of visible BMs in two patients. Among the tested models, the one featuring dormancy was best able to describe the data. It predicted latency phases of 4.4-5.7 months and onset of BMs 14-19 months before diagnosis. This quantitative model paves the way for a computational tool of potential help during therapeutic management.

Modeling Spontaneous Metastasis following Surgery: An In Vivo-In Silico Approach

Rapid improvements in the detection and tracking of early-stage tumor progression aim to guide decisions regarding cancer treatments as well as predict metastatic recurrence in patients following surgery. Mathematical models may have the potential to further assist in estimating metastatic risk, particularly when paired with in vivo tumor data that faithfully represent all stages of disease progression. Herein, we describe mathematical analysis that uses data from mouse models of spontaneous metastasis developing after surgical removal of orthotopically implanted primary tumors. Both presurgical (primary tumor) growth and postsurgical (metastatic) growth were quantified using bioluminescence and were then used to generate a mathematical formalism based on general laws of the disease (i.e., dissemination and growth). The model was able to fit and predict pre/postsurgical data at the level of the individual as well as the population. Our approach also enabled retrospective analysis of clinical data describing the probability of metastatic relapse as a function of primary tumor size. In these data-based models, interindividual variability was quantified by a key parameter of intrinsic metastatic potential. Critically, our analysis identified a highly nonlinear relationship between primary tumor size and postsurgical survival, suggesting possible threshold limits for the utility of tumor size as a predictor of metastatic recurrence. These findings represent a novel use of clinically relevant models to assess the impact of surgery on metastatic potential and may guide optimal timing of treatments in neoadjuvant (presurgical) and adjuvant (postsurgical) settings to maximize patient benefit.