Risk approximation in decision making: approximative numeric abilities predict advantageous decisions under objective risk

The association between experience-based risky choice and mathematical ability

Mathematical ability has always been considered an important influencing factor in description-based risky choices. Experience-based risky choices, which occur frequently in daily life, are very different from description-based risky choices. The association between experience-based risky choice and mathematical ability remains unknown. This study adopts the feedback paradigm for experience-based risky choice to explore the association between multiple mathematical abilities and experience-based risky choice. The results show that, in experience-based risky choice, mathematical ability did not influence the decision to pursue higher expected value, but it did influence preference for risky. Thus, our study contributes to a more comprehensive view of mathematical ability and risky choice.

A rational explanation for links between the ANS and math

The proposal by Clarke and Beck offers a new explanation for the association between the approximate number system (ANS) and math. Previous explanations have largely relied on developmental arguments, an underspecified notion of the ANS as an "error detection mechanism," or affective factors. The proposal that the ANS represents rational numbers suggests that it may directly support a broader range of math skills.

Numerosity Comparison, Estimation and Proportion Estimation Abilities May Predict Numeracy and Cognitive Reflection in Adults

This study explores whether and how different tasks associated with approximate number system (ANS) ability are related to numeracy and cognitive reflection in adults. We conducted an online experiment using a sample of 300 Japanese adults aged 20–39. Participants were given three ANS tasks (numerosity comparison, numerosity estimation, and proportion estimation) as well as Rasch-based numeracy scale and cognitive reflection test, and we tested the correlation among the measures of these tasks. We explored the hypothesis that the typical measures used to gauge ANS ability, numerosity comparison and numerosity estimation may mediate different cognitive mechanisms in adults. We also introduced a task measuring proportion estimation, added because such estimation requires numerosity perception and the ability to map symbolic numerals. Our findings suggest that there is a weak, but significant correlation among the three ANS-related tasks. Moreover, there is a significant relationship between each of these measures and the numeracy and CRT score, suggesting that the ANS-related ability may be associated with higher cognitive abilities such as numeracy and cognitive reflection. In addition, we found that performances on the numerosity and proportion estimation are more clearly related to CRT score than the numerosity comparison task.

Approximate Number Processing Skills Contribute to Decision Making Under Objective Risk: Interactions With Executive Functions and Objective Numeracy

Research on the cognitive abilities involved in decision making has shown that, under objective risk conditions (i.e., when explicit information about possible outcomes and risks is available), superior decisions are especially predicted by executive functions and exact number processing skills, also referred to as objective numeracy. So far, decision-making research has mainly focused on exact number processing skills, such as performing calculations or transformations of symbolic numbers. There is evidence that such exact numeric skills are based on approximate number processing (ANP) skills, which enable quick and accurate processing of non-symbolic numbers (e.g., Chen and Li, 2014). Very few studies, however, have investigated ANP skills in the context of risky decision making and have analyzed direct associations among the aforementioned sub functions. Possible interactions between the closely related skills have not been considered. The current study (N = 128) examines interactions of ANP skills with executive functions and objective numeracy, in predicting risky choice behavior. ANP skills are represented by the accuracy in a dot-comparison task. Decision making is measured by two versions of the Game of Dice Task (GDT), which place different emphases on the reflection of potential risks. The results show two-way as well as three-way interactions between the measures of ANP skills, executive functions, and objective numeracy in predicting risky decisions in both GDT versions. The riskiest decisions were most frequently made in case of low scores in all of the three competencies, while good performance in any one of them resulted in significant reductions of disadvantageous decisions. The findings indicate that high ANP skills can positively affect choice behavior in individuals who have weaknesses in reflectively attributed skills, namely executive functions and objective numeracy. Potential compensatory effects and mechanisms of ANP in decision making are discussed.